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Gland, Switzerland, IUCN, 1987. 63 p.A special Task Force Report by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources focusing on population contains chapters on demographic trends, structural changes and future growth, population policies, family planning programs, relations between population, conservation and development, and recommendations. Unprecedented population growth in this century is such that most countries have people living who have seen their population triple, and Zimbabwe as an example of an African country has grown 8-fold in this period. Population growth is only 1 among many factors that aggravate conservation and development; others include decreasing food supply, inappropriate development patterns fostered by debt, trade imbalances, misguided aid, and even the food surpluses of the North. Current environmental crises will contribute to a predicted 33% loss in arable land by 2000. The report ends with 12 recommendations, e.g., corroboration by country-level population, conservation and development agencies by identifying relevant institutions and introducing coordinating mechanisms. Every couple should be provided with means to plan their family, an effort estimated to cost $6 billion more than the current $2 billion being spent. Women should be given the right of choice about pregnancy, education, and integration into socio-economic development.
POPULATION TODAY. 1992 Feb; 20(2):8-9.A debate within the UK public health community has centered around the feasibility of campaigns to improve child survival rates in Africa in the absence of equally aggressive efforts to increase family planning acceptance. The central spokesperson in this debate, Maurice King of the University of Leeds, has argued that population growth in sub-Saharan countries is undermining the carrying capacity of available resources and threatening ecological collapse. These countries are not exhibiting the characteristic demographic transition pattern, in which declining death rates eventually create conditions conducive to lower birth rates. Instead, they have fallen into a "demographic trap " in which population increases are outstripping growth in food production. To remedy this situation, King advocates the introduction of the concept of sustainability of the ecological foundations of health into the World Health Organizations's official definition of health. Richard Jolly of UNICEF has countered King's articles with the insistence that UNICEF has long supported child survival within the broader context of family planning provision and advocacy of birth spacing.
In: Preserving the global environment: the challenge of shared leadership, edited by Jessica T. Mathews. New York, New York/London, England, W. W. Norton, 1991. 39-77.The thesis that human population growth will eventually destroy the equilibrium of the world ecosystem, because environmental strain is a nonlinear effect of the linear growth, is embellished with discussions of technology and resulting pollution, population dynamics, birth and death rates, effects of expanded education, causes of urbanization, time constraints and destabilizing effects of partial development and the debt crisis. It is suggested that the terms renewable and nonrenewable resources are paradoxical, since the nonrenewable resoureces such as minerals will always exist, while renewable ecosystems and species are limited. The competitive economy actually accelerates destruction of biological resoureces because it overvalues rare species when they have crossed the equilibrium threshold and are in decline. Technological outputs are proportional to population numbers: therefore adverse effects of population should be considered in billions, not percent increase even though it is declining. Even the United Nations does not have predictions of the effects of added billions, taking into account improved survival and decreased infant mortality. Rapid urbanization of developing countries and their debt crisis have resulted from political necessity from the point of view of governments in power, rather than mere demographics. Recommendations are suggested for U.S. policy based on these points such as enlightened political leadership, foreign aid, and scientific investment with the health of the world ecosystem in mind rather than spectacle and local political ideology.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. ix, 534 p. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements ST/ESA/SER.A/90)Contained in this volume are the report (Part I) and the selected papers (Part II) of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development which review past trends and their likely future course in each of the 4 areas, taking into account not only evolving concepts but also the need to consider population, resources, environment and development as a unified structure. Trends noted in the population factor include world population growth and the differences between rates in the developed and developing countries; the decline in the proportion of the population who are very young and the concomitant increase in the average age of the population. Discussed within the resource factor are the labor force, the problem of increasing capital shortage, expenditures on armaments, trends in the supply and productivity of arable land, erosion and degradation of topsoil and energy sources. Many of the problems identified overlap with the environment factor, which centers on the problem of pollution. The group on the development factor was influenced by a pervasiv sense of "crisis" in current economic trends. Concern was also expressed regarding the qualitative aspects of current development trends, defined as the perverse effects of having adopted inappropriate styles of development. Part II begins with a general overview of recent levels and trends in the 4 areas along with the concepts of carrying capacity and optimum population. Other papers discuss the impact of trends in resources, environment and development on demographic prospects; long-term effects of global population growth on the international system; economic considerations in the choice of alternative paths to a stationary population and the need for integration of demographic factors in development planning. The various papers on the resources and environment factor focus on resources as a barrier to population growth; the effects of population growth on renewable resources; food production and population growth in Africa; the frailty of the balance between the 4 areas and the need for a holistic approach on a scale useful for regional planning. Also addressed are: social development; population and international economic relations; development, lifestyles, population and environment in Latin America; issues of population growth, inequality and poverty; health, population and development trends; education requirements and trends in female literacy; the challenge posed by the aging of populations; and population and development in the ECE region.