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[Unpublished] 1985. 78 p.A Population/Family Health Assessment was conducted in the Democratic Republic of Madagascar (GDRN) to review population and family planning activities and to make general recommendations for improvement, including the type of US Agency for International Development (USAID) population assistance that should be provided. Despite the fact that Madagascar's population of approximately 9 million is growing at a rate of 2.8% annually, meaning the population will double in less than 25 years, there is no official population policy. Yet, it is significant that the reduction of maternal and infant mortality and morbidity has been identified as an explicit goal in the health sector, and the country's actions long have reflected an attitude of acceptance and support of family planning. The private family planning association is recognized as a nongovernmental organization, which provides clinical and contraceptive services throughout Madagascar. The public health system offers no family planning services. Although the French law of 1920 forbidding the sale and use of contraceptives has not been rescinded, it is not enforced. The private family planning association now provides contraceptive services in 40 Ministry of Health facilities at the request of public health physicians, and the government has approved the participation of 35 medical and paramedical personnel in training courses as well as the installation of laparoscopic equipment in 8 medical facilities. Several other organizations provide child spacing services. Despite the efforts being made, the availability of contraceptive services remains limited, and contraceptive prevalence was estimated at 1% of women aged 15-49 in 1982. Several obstacles impede accessibility to contraceptive services and expansion of family planning programs, including a culture which favors large families, the strong influence of the Catholic Church, and a limited number of medical centers providing family planning services. Further, communication between the Office of Population and the Ministry of Health has not been the most favorable for the development of effective programs either area, but the recent naming of a physician to the position of Director of Population may facilitate closer collaboration. The recommendations made outline a general strategy for the initiation of population activities in the shortterm.
Voorburg, Netherlands, Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute, 1985 Sep. ix, 56 p. (Working Paper of the N.I.D.I. No. 63)The objective of this report is to introduce the available techniques of life history analysis to study the data collected by the national migration surveys and to demonstrate the relevance of such techniques to provide more insight into to the problems addressed by the ESCAP migration and urbanization project. The 2nd section of the report introduces the basic concepts, with special reference to migration, and contains a simple example. Section 3 deals with 3 further issues which may arise while modeling migration histories: the alternative definitions of the state-space; the definition of the time dependence; and heterogeneity considerations and ways of dealing with heterogeneity for discrete state stochastic models of migration. The 4th section focuses on some major problems which may arise while estimating stochastic models of migration histories with ESCAP migration his. 2 issues are emphasized in this section: problems with the measurement of the timing of the events and issues related to using the information on the covariates of migration. Continous time stochastic models provide a powerful means of modeling event sequences. Migration histories consist of information on the times and the characteristics of migration experienced by individuals. More conventional ways of modeling such data are the dummy variables regression, the logit regression, or aggregation of the data are to form contingency tables and application of the log-linear models. Continous time event history models easily be generalized to incorporate complex designs of the state space, which express the moves between residences, and to provide detailed and cross nationally comparable information on the patterns of time dependence. Additionally, they are based on the estimation techniques which do not require unrealistic assumptions. These models aim at identifying a dynamic process that underlies the observed data. Estimated parameters of these models provide a description of the time dependence and also provide quantitative information about the effects of exogenous variables on the phenomenon of interest. The dependent variable of the continous time event history models is usually the instantaneous transition rate which is not directly observable. The estimated coefficients of the exogenous variables may be interpreted the same as the coefficients of a regression model, except that they usually have a multiplicative relation with the dependent variable. Once models of fundamental parameters of the underlying process are designed and estimated, many implications of such a process may be derived.
Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, 1985. 1 p.The 1986 Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) population data sheet gives statistics on the mid-1986 population, the annual growth rate, the crude birth and death rates, the total fertility rate, male and female expectancy at birth, the infant mortality rate, the percentage of the population aged 0-14 and 65 and over, population density, and the projected population in 2000 for the Asian and Pacific regions, and individual Asian and Pacific countries. Sources are cited for all statistics.
Population Research Leads. 1985; (19):1-15.The Population Division's evaluation of the role of population factors in the planning process through the application of economic-demographic models shows that procedures for considering the short and long-term implications of population growth can be significantly improved. The Division's research projects demonstrate that models can help planners to achieve an efficient allocation of scarce resources, set clear-cut national objectives and provide a national sense of political and social purpose. There are many advantages in applying economic-demographic models to development planning in order to integrate population factors within the development process, yet care must be taken in adopting and/or applying a certain model at the national level. Aside from the question of adopting a model, the question of the applicability and application of models is emphasized. The choice of model structure is discussed in terms of 4 major issues: 1) the choice of a central core; 2) the trade-off between simplicity and complexity and the appropriate degree of endogeneity; 3) the choice of a demand or supply orientation; and 4) the criteria for selecting a particular model for use. A representative selection of economic demographic models is presented. Included are the TEMPO (designed to illustrate the benefits of reduced fertility) and Long-Range Planning Models (LAPM--designed to illustrate the implications of policy assumptions for economic development, particularly in regard to health and education), both developed by the US government. Also described are the BACHUE and the UN Fund for Populations Activities (UNFPA)/ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) models. It is argued that these latter models offer the greatest promise as tools for planning in the ESCAP Region, at the present time. As the BACHUE model is primarily concerned with employment and the distribution of income and the UNFPA/FAO model with agriculture, incorporating both into the planning process could be desirable.
The uses of demographic knowledge for policies and planning in developing countries: problems and issues
Iussp Newsletter/Bulletin de Liaison. 1985 Jan-Aug; (23-24):99-120.The author discusses some issues involved in the use of demographic knowledge for policy development and planning in developing countries. The literature concerning factors affecting the uses of knowledge by policymakers is reviewed. The dissemination of knowledge at the international and national levels is examined, with a focus on technical assistance organizations, especially U.N. demographic centers, and on national population institutions. (ANNOTATION)
Asian and Pacific Population Programme News. 1985 Mar; 14(1):2-5.In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.