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  1. 1
    038368

    [Rural-rural migration: the case of the colonies] Migracion rural-rural el caso de las colonias.

    Blanes J; Calderon F; Dandler J; Prudencio J; Lanza L

    In: Tras nuevas raices: migraciones internas y colonizacion en Bolivia [by] Carlos Garcia-Tornell, Maria Elena Querejazu, Jose Blanes, Fernando Calderon, Jorge Dandler, Julio Prudencio, Luis Lanza, Giovanni Carnibella, Gloria Ardaya, Gonzalo Flores [and] Alberto Rivera. La Paz, Bolivia, Ministerio de Planeamiento y Coordinacion, Direccion de Planeamiento Social, Proyecto de Politicas de Poblacion, 1984 Apr. 51-251.

    A study of colonization programs in Bolivia was conducted as part of a larger evaluation of population policy. The 1st of 8 chapters examines the history of colonization programs in Bolivia and the role of state and international development agencies. It sketches the disintegration of the peasant economy, and presents 5 variables that appear to be central to colonization processes: the directedness or spontaneity of the colonization, the distance to urban centers and markets, the diversification of production, the length of time settled, and the origin of the migrants. The 2nd chapter describes the study methodology. The major objective was to evaluate government policies and plans in terms of the realistic possibilities of settlement in colonies for peasants expelled from areas of traditional agriculture. Interviews and the existing literature were the major sources used to identify the basic features and problems of colonization programs. 140 structured interviews were held with colonists in the Chapare zone, 43 in Yapacari, and 51 in San Julian. The 3 zones were selected because of their diversity, but the sample was not statistically representative and the findings were essentially qualitative. The 3rd chapter examines the relationships between the place of origin and the stages of settlement. The chapter emphasizes the influence of place of origin and other factors on the processes of differentiation, proletarianization, and pauperization. The 4th chapter examines the productive process, profitability of farming, the market, and reproductive diversification. The next chapter analyzes the technology and the market system of the colonists, the dynamics of the unequal exchange system in which they operate, and aspects related to ecological equilibrium and environmental conservation. The 6th chapter concentrates on family relationships and the role played by the family in colonization. Some features of the population structure of the colonies are described. The 7th chapter assesses forms of organization, mechanisms of social legitimation, and the important role of peasant syndicates. The final chapter summarizes the principal trends encountered in each of the themes analyzed and makes some recommendations concerning the colonization program, especially in reference to the family economy and labor organizations.
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  2. 2
    021441
    Peer Reviewed

    A perspective on long-term population growth.

    Demeny PG

    Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.

    This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
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  3. 3
    024924

    Current projection assumptions for the United Nations demographic projections.

    United Nations. Secretariat

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 25-32. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    The United Nations population projection assumptions are statements of expected trends in fertility, mortality and migration in the world. In every assessment, each of the 3 demographic components is unambiguously specified at the national level for each of the 5-year periods during the population interval (1950-2025). The approach used by the UN in preparing its projections is briefly summarized. At the general level, the analyst relies on available information of past events and current demographic levels and differentials, the demographic trends and experiences of similar countries in the region and his or her informed interpretations of what is likely to occur in the future. One common feature of the UN population projections that guides the analyst in preparing the assumptions is the general conceptual scheme of the demographic transition, or the socio-economic threshold hypothesis of fertility decline. As can be observed from the projected demographic trends reported in this paper, population stabilization at low levels of fertility, mortality and migration is the expected future for each country, with the only important differences being the timing of the stabilization. Irrespective of whether the country is developed, with very low fertility (for example, the Federal Republic of Germany or Japan), or developing with high fertility (such as, Bangladesh or the Syrian Arab Republic), it is assumed that fertility will arrive at replacement levels in the not too distant future. Serious alternative theories or hypotheses of population change, such as declining population size, are not only very few in number, but they tend to be somewhat more unacceptable and inconvenient to the demographic analyst as well as being considerably less palatable to goverments.
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