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Freetown, Sierra Leone, Ministry of Education, 1984. 80 p. (UNFPA/UNESCO Project SIL/76/POI)The National Programme in Social Studies in Sierra Leone has created this textbook in the social sciences for secondary school students. Unit 1, "Man's Origins, Development and Characteristics," presents the findings of archaeologists and anthropologists about the different periods of man's development. Man's mental development and population growth are also considered. Unit 2, "Man's Environment," discusses the physical and social environments of Sierra Leone, putting emphasis on the history of migrations into Sierra Leone and the effects of migration on population growth. Unit 3, "Man's Culture," deals with cultural traits related to marriage and family structure, different religions of the world, and traditional beliefs and population issues. Unit 4, "Population and Resources," covers population distribution and density and the effects of migration on resources. The unit also discusses land as a resource and the effects of the land tenure system, as well as farming systems, family size and the role of women in farming communities. Unit 5, "Communication in the Service of Man", focuses on modern means of communication, especially mass media. Unit 6, "Global Issues: Achievements and Problems," discusses the identification of global issues, such as colonialism, the refugee problem, urbanization, and the population problems of towns and cities. The unit describes 4 organizations that have been formed in response to problems such as these: the UN, the Red Cross, the International Labor Organization, and the Co-operative for American Relief.
Health and health services in Judaea, Samaria and Gaza 1983-1984: a report by the Ministry of Health of Israel to the Thirty-Seventh world Health Assembly, Geneva, May 1984.
Jerusalem, Israel, Ministry of Health, 1984 Mar. 195 p.Health conditions and health services in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza during the 1967-83 period are discussed. Health-related activities and changes in the social and economic environment are assessed and their impact on health is evaluated. Specific activities performed during the current year are outlined. The following are specific facets of the health care system that are the focus of many current projects in these districts; the development of a comprehensive network of primary care programs and centers for preventive and curative services has been given high priority and is continuing; renovation and expansion of hospital facilities, along with improved staffing, equipment, and supplies for basic and specialty health services increase local capabilities for increasingly sophisticated health care, and consequently there is a decreasing need to send patients requiring specialized care to supraregional referral hospitals, except for highly specialized services; inadequacies in the preexisting reporting system have necessitated a continuting process of development for the gathering and publication of general and specific statistical and demographic data; stress has been placed on provision of safe drinking water, development of sewage and solid waste collection and disposal systems, as well as food control and other environmental sanitation activities; major progress has been made in the establishment of a funding system that elicits the participation and financial support of the health care consumer through volunary health insurance, covering large proportions of the population in the few years since its inception; the continuing building room in residential housing along with the continuous development of essential community sanitation infrastructure services are important factors in improved living and health conditions for the people; and the health system's growth must continue to be accompanied by planning, evaluation, and research atall levels. Specific topics covered include: demography and vital statistics; socioeconomic conditions; morbidity and mortality; hospital services; maternal and child health; nutrition; health education; expanded program immunization; environmental health; mental health; problems of special groups; health insurance; community and voluntary agency participation; international agencies; manpower and training; and planning and evaluation. Over the past 17 years, Judea, Samaria, and Gaza have been areas of rapid population growth and atthe same time of rapid socioeconomic development. In addition there have been basic changes in the social and health environment. As measured by socioeconomic indicators, much progress has been achieved for and by the people. As measured by health status evaluation indicators, the people benefit from an incresing quantity and quality of primary care and specialty services. The expansion of the public health infrastructure, combined with growing access to and utilization of personal preventive services, has been a key contributor to this process.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 4-6. (Population Studies No. 83 ST/ESA/SER.A/83)These recommendations refer specifically to the work of the Population Division of the UN and the regional commissions and more generally to the work of the specialized agenices, which prepare projections of labor force and school enroolment. The current recommendations may be regarded as updating an earlier detailed set that was issued by a similar group of experts who convened in New York in November 1977. The recommendations cover general considerations, sources and assumptions, evaluation of projections and their uses, and internal migration and urbanization. The Population Division should consider the question of an optimal time schedule for publishing new estimates and projections in order to avoid unduly long intervals between publications and intervals so short as to cause confusion. The UN Secretariat has an important role in pursuing work on methodology of projections and making it available to demographers in the developing countries. Unique problems of demographic projection exist for those countries with particularly small populations. It is proposed that the Population Division prepare special tabulations, whenever possible, giving the estimated age and sex distribution for these countries. Future publications of population projections prepared by the Population Division should indicate the major data sources on which the projections are based and note if the data were adjusted before inclusion. In addition, some grading of the quality of the base data should be presented. For the UN set of national and international population projections, a more comprehensive system of establishing assumptions about the future trends of fertility is needed. The Secretariat needs to focus more attention on the evaluation of its population projections. UN publications of projections should report on the main errors in recent past projections with respect to estimates of baseline levels and trends and provide some evaluation of the quality of the current estimates. It is recommended that the UN encourage countries to establish a standard definition of urban which would be used for international comparisons but generally not replace current national definitions. The Secretariat should review the techniques currently used to project urban-rural and city populations and search for methodologies appropriate to the level of urbanization and the quality of data which would improve the accuracy of the projections. The Division should regularly produce long range population projections for the world and major countries and should continue and expand its household estimates and projection series, which provides information essential to government administrators and planning agencies, businesses, and researchers in all countries.
[Unpublished] 1984 May 8. 31 p. (CE 92/12)This report shows how demographic information can be analyzed and used to identify and characterize the groups assigned priority in the Regional Plan of Action and that it is necessary for the improvement of the planning and allocation of health resources so that national health plans can be adapted to encompass the entire population. In discussing the connections between health and population characteristics in the countries of the region, the report covers mortality, fertility and health, and fertility and population increase; spatial distribution and migration; and the structure of the population. Focus then moves on to health, development, and population policies and family planning. The final section of the report considers the response of the health sector to population trends and characteristics and to development-related factors. The operations of the health sector must be revised in keeping with the observed demographic situation and the projections thereof so that the goal of health for all by the year 2000 may be realized. In several countries of the region mortality remains high. In 1/3 of them, infant mortality during the period 1980-85 exceeds 60/1000 live births. If measures are not taken to reduce mortality 55% of the population of Latin America in the year 2000 will still be living in countries with life expectancies at birth of under 70 years. According to the projections, in the year 2000 the birthrate will stand at around 29/1000, with wide differences between the countries of the region, within each of them, and between socioeconomic strata. High fertility will remain a factor hostile to the health of women and children and a determinant of rapid population growth. Some governments view the present or predicted growth rates as excessive; others want to increase them; and some take no explicit position on the matter. The countries would be well advised to assign values to their birthrate, natural increase, and periods for doubling their populations in relation to their development plans and to the prospects for improving the standard of living and health of their populations. An important factor in urban growth is internal migration. These migrants, like some of those who move to other countries, may have health problems requiring special care. Regardless of a country's demographic situation, the health sector has certain responsibilities, including: the need to promote the framing and adoption of population and development policies, in whose implementation the importance of health measures is not open to question; and the need to favor the intersector coordination and articulation required to ensure that population aspects are considered in national development planning.
In: Tras nuevas raices: migraciones internas y colonizacion en Bolivia [by] Carlos Garcia-Tornell, Maria Elena Querejazu, Jose Blanes, Fernando Calderon, Jorge Dandler, Julio Prudencio, Luis Lanza, Giovanni Carnibella, Gloria Ardaya, Gonzalo Flores [and] Alberto Rivera. La Paz, Bolivia, Ministerio de Planeamiento y Coordinacion, Direccion de Planeamiento Social, Proyecto de Politicas de Poblacion, 1984 Apr. 51-251.A study of colonization programs in Bolivia was conducted as part of a larger evaluation of population policy. The 1st of 8 chapters examines the history of colonization programs in Bolivia and the role of state and international development agencies. It sketches the disintegration of the peasant economy, and presents 5 variables that appear to be central to colonization processes: the directedness or spontaneity of the colonization, the distance to urban centers and markets, the diversification of production, the length of time settled, and the origin of the migrants. The 2nd chapter describes the study methodology. The major objective was to evaluate government policies and plans in terms of the realistic possibilities of settlement in colonies for peasants expelled from areas of traditional agriculture. Interviews and the existing literature were the major sources used to identify the basic features and problems of colonization programs. 140 structured interviews were held with colonists in the Chapare zone, 43 in Yapacari, and 51 in San Julian. The 3 zones were selected because of their diversity, but the sample was not statistically representative and the findings were essentially qualitative. The 3rd chapter examines the relationships between the place of origin and the stages of settlement. The chapter emphasizes the influence of place of origin and other factors on the processes of differentiation, proletarianization, and pauperization. The 4th chapter examines the productive process, profitability of farming, the market, and reproductive diversification. The next chapter analyzes the technology and the market system of the colonists, the dynamics of the unequal exchange system in which they operate, and aspects related to ecological equilibrium and environmental conservation. The 6th chapter concentrates on family relationships and the role played by the family in colonization. Some features of the population structure of the colonies are described. The 7th chapter assesses forms of organization, mechanisms of social legitimation, and the important role of peasant syndicates. The final chapter summarizes the principal trends encountered in each of the themes analyzed and makes some recommendations concerning the colonization program, especially in reference to the family economy and labor organizations.
In: Medical education in the field of primary maternal child health care [edited by] M.M. Fayad, M.I. Abdalla, Ibrahim I. Ibrahim, Mohamed A. Bayad. [Cairo, Egypt, Cairo University, Faculty of Medicine, Dept. of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 1984]. 421-34.This paper begins by stating that the mortality from neonatal tetanus has been peculiarly underestimated until recently, and discusses why this has been the case. The availability of a methodology for retrospective surveys and undertaking of such surveys in recent years has thrown much light on the subject. The results of these surveys from 15 countries are presented in tabular form. It is apparent that at present between 500,000 and 1 million newborn infants a year succumb to tetanus. The prospects for control, using the combined approach of improved maternity care and maternal immunization, are discussed, and an appropriate schedule of immunization suggested. The prospects for control are good wherever there is realization of the magnitude of the problem plus reasonable access to even quite basic primary health care. Some activities of WHO in this field are briefly described. (author's)
[Recommendations of the Population World Plan of Action and of the United Nations Expert Group on Population Distribution, Migration and Development] Recomendaciones del Plan de Accion Mundial sobre Poblacion y del Grupo de Expertos de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo.
In: Reunion Nacional sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo, Guadalajara, Jalisco, 11 de mayo de 1984, [compiled by] Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]. Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 21-31.Highlights are presented of the expert meeting on population distribution, migration, and development held in Hammamet, Tunisia, in March 1983 to prepare for the 1984 World Population Conference. Rafael Salas, Secretary General of the World Population Conference, indicated in the inaugural address of the meeting that changes in the past 10 years including the increasing importance of short-term movements, illegal migrations, and refugees would require international agreements for their resolution. In the area of internal migrations, Salas suggested that in addition to migration to metropolitan areas which continues to predominate, short-term movements of various kinds need to be considered in policy. Improvement in the quality of life of the urban poor is an urgent need. Leon Tabah, Adjunct Secretary General of the World Population Conference, pointed out that population distribution and migration had received insufficient attention in the 1975 World Population Conference, and that the World Population Plan of Action should be modified accordingly. Among the most important findings of the meeting were: 1) The Plan of Action overstressed the negative effects of urbanization and rural migration. Available evidence suggests that migration and urbanization are effects rather than causes of a larger process of unequal regional and sectorial development 2) The historical context of each country should be considered in research and planning regarding population movements. 3) Analyses of the determinants and consequences of migration were reexamined in light of their relationship to the processes of employment, capital accumulation, land tenure, technological change, ethnic and educational aspects, and family dynamics. 4) The need to consider interrelationships between urban rural areas in formulation of policy affecting population distribution was emphasized. 5) National development strategies and macroeconomic and sectoral policies usually have stronger spatial effects than measures specifically designed to influence population distribution, and should be examined to ensure compatability of goals. 6) Population distribution policies should not be viewed as ends in themselves but as measures to achieve larger goals such as reducing socioeconomic inequalities. 7) Multiple levels of analysis should be utilized for understanding the causes and consequences of population movements. 8) Programs of assistance should be organized for migrants and their families. 9) The human and labor rights of migrants and nonmigrants should be considered in policy formulation. 10) Policies designed to improve living and working conditions of women are urgently needed.
[National Conference on Population Distribution, Migration and Development, Guadalajara, Jalisco, May 11, 1984] Reunion Nacional sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo, Guadalajara, Jalisco, 11 de mayo de 1984.
Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 107 p.Proceedings of a national conference on population distribution, migration, and development held in Guadalajara, Mexico, in May 1984 in preparation for the 1984 World Population Conference are presented. 2 opening addresses explain the objectives and relevance of the national conference, while the 1st conference paper outlines the recommendations of the World Population Plan of Action and of an expert meeting sponsored by the UN in Tunisia in 1983 on the topic of population distribution, migration, and development. The main conference papers discuss recent evolution of population distribution in Mexico; migration, labor markets, and development, including migratory flows and the economic structure of Mexico, recommendations of the World Population Conference of 1974, the migration policy of the Mexican National Development Plan, and the National Employment Service as an instrument of migration policy; and reflections on the World Population Conference, the Mexican government, and the design of an international migration policy, including commentarty on the recommendations of the expert committee on international migration convened in preparation for the World Population Conference, and comments on problems in design of migration policy. The main recommendations of the conference were 1) the principles of the World Population Plan of Action, particularly in regard to respect for fundamental human rights, be reaffirmed; 2) policies designed to influence population movement directly be supplemented by and coordinated with other social and economic policies likely to produce the same effect; 3) coordination among all sectors be improved to ensure effective implementation of policy goals; 4) efforts be undertaken to provide more detailed information on internal migratory movements; 5) laws governing migration and population distribution in Mexico be carefully analyzed and possibly modified; and 6) a clear and realistic international migration policy be formulated which would take into account the need for more detailed data on international migration, a clear definition of policy objectives in international migration, respect of basic human rights, and coherence between external and internal international migration policies.
[National Conference on Fertility and Family, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oaxaca, April 13, 1984] Reunion Nacional sobre Fecundidad y Familia, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oax., a 13 de abril de 1984.
Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 228 p.Proceedings of a national conferences on the family and fertility held in April 1984 as part of Mexico's preparation for the August 1984 World Population Conference are presented. 2 opening addresses outline the background and objectives of the conference, while the 1st paper details recommendations of a 1983 meeting on fertility and the family held in New Delhi. The main body of the report presents 2 conference papers and commentary. The 1st paper, on fertility, contraception, and family planning, discusses fertility policies; levels and trends of fertility in Mexico from 1900 to 1970 and since 1970; socioeconomic and geographic fertility differentials; the relationship of mortality and fertility; contraception and the role of intermediate variables; the history and achievements of family planning activities of the private and public sectors in Mexico; and the relationship between contraception, fertility, and family planning. The 2nd paper, on the family as a sociodemographic unit and subject of population policies, discusses the World Population Plan of Action and current sociodemographic policies in Mexico; the family as a sociodemographic unit, including the implications of formal demography for the study of family phenomena, the dynamic sociodemographic composition of the family unit, and the family as a mediating unit for internal and external social actions; and steps in development of a possible population policy in which families would be considered an active part, including ideologic views of the family as a passive object of policy and possible mobilization strategies for families in population policies. The conference as a whole concluded by reaffirming the guiding principles of Mexico's population policy, including the right of couples to decide the number and spacing of their children, the fundamental objective of the population policy of elevating the socioeconomic and cultural level of the population, the view of population policy as an essential element of development policy, and the right of women to full participation. Greater efforts were believed to be necessary in such priority areas as integration of family planning programs with development planning and population policy, creation of methodologies for the analysis of families in their social contexts, development and application of contraceptive methodologies, promotion of male participation in family planning, coordination of federal and state family planning programs, and creation of sociodemographic information systems to ensure availability of more complete date on families in specific population sectors. The principles of the World Population Plan of Action were also reaffirmed.
Demography India. 1984 Jan-Dec; 13(1-2):153-67.The threshold hypothesis shares with transition theory the basic assumption that a decline in fertility is interrelated with a decline in mortality and change in the social, economic, and cultural conditions of the population. However, threshold theory fails to formulate a causal chain between fertility and the other variables and its application at the aggregate country level is limited by intracountry heterogeneity in cultural and social variables. Problematic is the fixing of the timing for a country of a decline in fertility to be inferred from the fact that some indicators of development have reached the threshold zone while others have not. This paper attempts to develope a combined index for socioeconomic development on the basis of data from 12 countries of the ESCAP region of South East Asia. Variables included were life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, adult female literacy, percentages of females economically active, GNP per capita, and percentage urban population. In 1970, 3 of the countries analyzed had a crude birth rate below 25, 6 countries had a rate between 25-40, and 3 had a rate above 40. The lowest value of the index recorded for countries of low fertility (crude birth rate below 25) and the highest value recorded for countries of high fertility (above 40) are taken as the threshold zones for the overall index. The number of countries in the threshold range increased from 5 in 1970 to 8 in 1975. With the increase in the index value, a reduction in the fertility level was noted. In contrast, where socioeconomic development was slow, fertility showed little change. Policy makers could use this system to assess which indicator could be pushed through to raise the overall index of development so as to effect a decline in fertility.
In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
[Ivory Coast: report of the Mission on Needs Assessment for Population Assistance] Cote d'Ivoire: rapport de Mission sur l'Evaluation des Besoins d'Aide en Matiere de Population.
New York, New York, UNFPA, 1984 Sep. viii, 57 p. (Report No. 69)Conclusions and recommendations are presented of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) Mission which visited the Ivory Coast from February 20-March 15, 1983 to assess population assistance needs. Ivory Coast officials believe that the population, estimated at 8,034,000 in 1980, is insufficient given the country's economic needs. Its very rapid rate of growth is estimated at over 4.5%/year, of which 1.5% is due to foreign immigration. 42% of the population is urban. The country has undergone exceptional economic growth in the past 2 decades, and the per capita income is now estimated at over $US1000 annually. Social development does not seem to have kept pace, however, and the mortality rate of 15.4/1000 is that of a country with only 1/2 the per capital income. The 1981-85 Ivory Coast Plan proposes a change from a growth economy to a society in which individual and collective welfare is the supreme goal. Up to date data on the size, structure, and dynamics of the population will be needed to aid in preparation of the 1986-90 and 1991-95 plans. A 2nd national population census is planned for 1985. Until the present, rapid population growth had been considered a boon, but problems are arising of massive rural exodus, high rates of urban unemployment coupled with manpower shortages in agriculture, and growing demographic pressure on health, educational, and social infrastructures, especially in the cities. The government has maintained its pronatalist stance, and government health programs have been directed only to mortality and maternal and child health. The need to control fertility and to use birth spacing as a tool to combat maternal and infant mortality is being increasingly felt, and a private family welfare association was able to form in 1979. A policy of maternal and child health encouraging spacing to improve family welfare would probably be welcomed in the Ivory Coast. The Mission recommended that a population policy be formulated which would correspond to the national demographic reality and development objectives. Basic demographic data collection should focus on the 1985 general census, which should have high priority. The civil registration system should be reorganized. A planned migration survey should cover the whole year to take into acconnt seasonal variations, but preparations should not begin until the census is completed. A multiple objective survey could be undertaken in 1988 to determine the nature and scope of interrelationships between demographic variables and economic and sociocultural variables, and a survey of infant mortality on a small sample could be done in 1989. The planned manpower and employment survey should be completed. Population research should receive high government priority. In regard to maternal and child health, the government should take an official position on the problem of birth spacing as a means of combatting maternal and infant deaths. IEC activities should be expanded, and efforts should be made to encourage the participation of women in development.
In: Aspects of population change and development in some African and Asian countries. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1984. 43-56. (CDC Research Monograph Series no. 9)This paper examines the relationship between economic development and demographic change in the 13 states of the Economic Commission for West Asia (ECWA) region. Demographic variables considered include per capita income, proportion urban, proportion in urban areas with over 100,000 inhabitants, literacy among those over 15 years, and literacy among women. Unweighted rankings on these variables were added to produce a development ranking or general development index. Then this index was used to investigate the relationship between development and individual scores and rankings for various demographic indices. The development index exhibited a rough fit with the mortality indices, especially life expectancy at birth. Mortality decline appears to be most closely related to rise in income. At the same income level, countries that have experienced substantial social change tend to exhibit the lowest mortality, presumably because of a loosening in family role patterns. In contrast, the relationship between development and fertility measures seemed to be almost random. A far closer correlation was noted between the former and the general development index. It is concluded that economic development alone will not reduce fertility. Needed are 2 changes: 1) profound social change in the family and in women's status, achievable through increases in female education, and 2) government family planning programs to ensure access to contraception.
[World population and development: an important change in perspective] Population mondiale et developpement: un important changement de perspective.
Problemes Economiques. 1984 Oct 24; (1895):26-32.The International Population Conference in Mexico City was much less controversial than the World Population Conference in Bucharest 10 years previously, in part because the message of Bucharest was widely accepted and in part because of changes that occurred in the demographic and economic situations in the succeeding decade. The UN medium population projection for 1985 has been proved quite accurate; it is not as alarming as the high projection but still represents a doubling of world population in less than 40 years. The control of fertility upon which the medium projection was predicated is well underway. The movement from high to low rates of fertility and mortality began in the 18th century in the industrial countries and lasted about 1 1/2 centuries during which the population surplus was dispersed throughout the world, especially in North and South America. The 2nd phase of movement from high to low rates currently underway in the developing countries has produced a far greater population increase. The proportion of the population in the developed areas of Europe, North America, the USSR, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand will decline from about 1/3 of the 2.5 billion world population of 1950 to 1/4 of the 3.7 billion of 1985, to 1/5 of the 4.8 billion of 2000, and probably 1/7 of the 10 billion when world population stabilizes at the end of the next century. The growth rates of developing countries are not homogeneous; the populations of China and India have roughly doubled in the past 35 years while that of Latin America has multiplied by 2 1/2. The population of Africa more than doubled in 35 years and will almost triple by 2025. The number of countries with over 50 million inhabitants, 9 in 1950, will increase from 19 in 1985 to 32 in 2025. The process of urbanization is almost complete in the industrialized countries, with about 75% of the population urban in 1985, but urban populations will continue to grow rapidly in the developing countries as rural migration is added to natural increase. The number of cities with 10 million inhabitants has increased from 2 to 13 between 1950 and 1985, and is expected to reach 25 by 2000, with Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai the world's largest cities. The peak rate of world population growth was reached in the 1960s, with annual increases of 2.4%. In 1980-85 in the developed and developing worlds respectively the rates of population growth were .7% and 2.0%/year; total fertility rates were 2.05 and 4.2, and the life expectancies at birth were 72.4 and 57.0. Considerable variations occurred in individual countries. Annual rates of growth in 1980-85 were 2.4% in Latin America, 3.0% in Africa, 2.2% in South Asia and 1.2% in East Asia. Today only Iran among high fertility countries pursues a pronatalist policy. Since Bucharest, it has become evident to developing and developed countries alike that population control and economic development must go hand in hand.
Genus. 1984 Jul-Dec; 40(3-4):191-200.This article is a report on the U.N.-sponsored International Conference on Population, held in Mexico City in August 1984. The author distinguishes between the "demographic pseudo-problems", which are basically political in nature, and the "real demographic problems" discussed at the conference. Changes in attitudes since the Bucharest conference of 1974 are described, and it is noted that most countries now favor a population policy involving both birth control and economic development. Demographic problems examined at the conference are briefly outlined, and the human rights focus of the conference recommendations is discussed. (summary in FRE, ITA)
In: Mortality and health policy. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Mortality and Health Policy, Rome, 30 May to 3 June 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 289-303. (International Conference on Population, 1984; ST/ESA/SER.A/91)The United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) assistance program encompasses basic data collection, population dynamics, formulation of population policies, implementation of general policies, family planning activities, communication and education programs, and special programs and multisector activities. This paper focuses on UNFPA assistance in the area of mortality. The Fund does not provide support for activities related to the reduction of mortality per se; rather, it contributes indirectly to the improvement of infant, child, and maternal health through assistance to family planning programs integrated with maternal-child health care. The types of activities UNFPA supports in this area include prenatal, delivery, and postnatal care of mothers and infants; infant and child care; health and nutrition education; promotion of breastfeeding; monitoring of infant malnutrition; and diagnostic studies and treatment of infertility and subfecundity. The Fund has cumulatively expended about US$87.3 million for activities in the area of mortality and health policy. The Fund is currently providing collaborative assistance to the World Health Organization and the UN for a comprehensive project aimed at measuring mortality trends and examining the roles of socioeconomic development and selected interventions in the mortality decline in certain developing countries. At present there is a need for research on the persistence of high mortality in the least developed countries, the early levelling off of life expectancies in many countries, and the determinants of socioeconomic differentials in mortality. Understanding of the mortality situation in many developing countries has been hindered by a lack of descriptive data on mortality by socioeconomic, regional, and occupational status. The real challenge lies in the implementation of policies designed to reduce mortality; political, managerial, and cultural factors unique to each country, as well as pervasive poverty, make this a difficult process.
In: Mortality and health policy. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Mortality and Health Policy, Rome, 30 May to 3 June 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 270-88. (International Conference on Population, 1984; ST/ESA/SER.A/91)This paper reviews the technical cooperation efforts undertaken by the United Nations Department of Technical Cooperation for Development (DTCD) to help combat the high mortality levels in developing countries and to evolve policies in response to the World Population Plan of Action. Although the transfer of medical technology and the provision of drugs and other medical supplies remain important means of controlling death and disease, there is growing recognition of the need to develop national skills to deal with mortality, to maintain a continuous record of mortality and morbidity levels and their response to ameliorative programs, and to analyze the interrelationships between demographic, health, and socioeconomic variables. DTCD has focused on data collection and analysis, the integration of research findings into population policy formulation, and training and skill development to facilitate self-reliance. However, the lack of regular mechanisms for coordinating the activities of the various United Nations agencies that play a role in in technical cooperation in the areas of mortality and health policy has been a serious limitation. Another problem has been the dearth of tested alternative techniques for conducting simple health surveys whose results could be used in planning. Closer cooperation between United Nations agencies in this field is urged. It is also important that the recent reassignment of a low priority to data collection and analysis on the part of the United Nations Development Program be reversed. Unless data collection, analysis, and evaluation are reassigned a high priority, planners will be forced to depend on subjective judgments to evolve mortality policies. Finally, technical cooperation activities that aim to integrate mortality and morbidity control into population policies must be responsive to human rights.
Mortality and health policy: highlights of the issues in the context of the World Population Plan of Action.
In: Mortality and health policy. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Mortality and Health Policy, Rome, 30 May to 3 June 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 37-79. (International Conference on Population, 1984.; ST/ESA/SER.A/91)This paper reviews the major issues that have emerged in the analysis of mortality and health policy since the 1974 World Population Conference. The 1st part summarizes current mortality conditions in the major world regions and evaluates progress toward achieving the goals of the World Population Plan of Action. It is noted that the current mortality situation is characterized by continued wide disparities between the more developed and less developed regions, especially during the 1st year of life. The 2nd part focuses on the synergistic relationship between health and development, including social, economic, and health inequalities. It is asserted that mortality rates in developing countries are a function of the balance governments select between development strategies favoring capital accumulation and concentrated investments on the 1 hand and strategies oriented toward meeting basic needs and reducing inequalities in income and wealth. Data from developed countries suggest that economic development does not necessarily lead to steady gains in life expectancy. Some variations in mortality may reflect changes in family relationships, especially women's status, that are induced by social and economic development, however. The 3rd part of this paper analyzes the effect of health policies on mortality, including curative and preventive programs and primary health care. The lack of community participation is cited as a key factor in the weak performance of primary health care in many developing countries. In addition, there is strong evidence that the concepts and technologies of modern medicine must be adapted to existing systems of disease prevention and care to gain acceptability. The 4th section, on the implementation of health policies, discusses health care management, planning, and financing. It is noted that successful implementation of health policies is often hindered by scarcity, inadequate allocation, and inefficient utilization of health resources. Finally, more effective means to cope with rising costs of health care are needed.
In: Demographic trends in the European region: health and social implications, edited by Alan D. Lopez and Robert L. Cliquet. Copenhagen, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, 1984. 5-67. (WHO Regional Publications, European Series No. 17; Project RMI/79/P05)This chapter presents an overview of recent demographic trends in Europe and discusses the implications of these trends for health and social services. The discussion is based on reports received from 15 of the 33 Member States of the European Region of the World Health Organization. The components of demographic change analyzed included population growth and structure, family formation, fertility, mortality, and population movement. Increases in the number and proportion of the elderly were noted and the traditional excess of births over deaths is expected to change in future years. Population aging is expected to continue to be a principal concern for the social services sector. The increasing emphasis on caring for rather than attempting to cure chronic illnesses among the aged suggests a need for more nursing homes and home-help services. Anticipation of future morbidity and mortality patterns implies a need to focus on specific risk groups, e.g. migrants, adult males, and those from lower socioeconomic groupings. With regard to fertility, adolescent sexual activity and the low use levels of contraception among teenagers comprise areas where greater service provision is necessary. In addition, there is a need for more vocational training for women, improved child care facilities, and full-time employment opportunities better suited to the needs of workers with dependent children. As a result of smaller families, increased divorce rates, the discrepancy between male and female survival, and greater regional mobility, markedly higher numbers of single individuals can be expected. Rapidly evolving changes in family formation, social norms, and underlying demographic trends will continue to alter European societies in the years ahead. The interrelationships between health and demographic phenomenon must continue to be probed to form a basis for future health and social planning.
In: Population, resources, environment and development. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development, Geneva, 25-29 April 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 175-86. (Population Studies No. 90; ST/ESA/SER.A/90; International Conference on Population, 1984)In carrying out the recommendations of the World Population Plan of Action, the UN has expanded its technical cooperation activities with the countries concerned in diverse population development fields, including studies of the interaction between social, economic, and demographic variables, the formulation and implementation of policies, the integration of demographic factors in the planning process, the training of national staff, and the improvement of the data base and institutional arrangements. Discussion focuses on country problems and policies, national institutional capacity in population and development planning, strengthening national institutional capacities, and integration of population and development in the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region. The interaction between structural change in population and social and economic development is generally recognized at the aggregate, sectoral, and regional levels, yet it has not thus far been possible to take this factor fully into account in the development planning process in many countries. In too many cases, population policies have been formulated and implemented in isolation and not in harmony with development policies or as an integral part of overall development strategy. Deficiencies in achieving integrated population policies and integration of demographic factors in the development planning process often have been caused or aggravated by a deficient knowledge of the interactions between demographic and socioeconomic factors and by insufficient expertise, resources, and proper institutional arrangements in the field. The population policies most frequently formulated and implemented during the last decade dealt with fertility, population growth, migration (internal and international), and mortality. Many governments continue to assign relatively low priority to the formulation of population policy and the formulation of related institutional arrangements. The fact that population is still understood as family planning by a number of governments also delays the legislative procedure necessary to establish government institutions for population research and study. The need exists to create a viable national institutional capacity through the establishment of a population planning unit within the administrative structure of national planning bodies. The substantive content of the work programs of these units would vary from country to country. There also is a need for a broader approach to the adoption of population policies and development planning strategies. Some progress has been made in integrating population into development planning in the ESCAP region, but the progress has been slow.
In: Population, resources, environment and development. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development, Geneva, 25-29 April 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 125-43. (Population Studies No. 90; ST/ESA/SER.A/90; International Conference on Population, 1984)4 overlapping and interrelated concerns appear to influence, if unevenly and in varying combinations, the approaches towards international population phenomena embodied in national policies. The concerns have to do with shifts in relative demographic size within the family of nations, international economic and political stability, humanitarian and welfare considerations, and narrowing options with regard to longterm social development. Each of these concerns is a reflection of measurable or perceived consequences of the extraordinarily rapid growth of the world population during the 20th century and in particular of the marked acceleration of that growth since the end of World War 2. None of these concerns has been adequately articulated, either in the academic literature or in international and national forums in which population policies are considered. International action in the population field has become a subset of international development assistance. Among the motivating concerns, humanitarian and welfare considerations have received the most attention. Considerations of economic and political stability also have been often invoked. In contrast, shifts in relative demographic size and the narrowing options with respect to longterm social development have been seldom discussed. Yet, examination of the record of policy discussions of the last few decades confirms that the influence of these factors has been potent. The dramatic increase of the world population is possibly the single most spectacular event of modern history. During the last 100 years global numbers have tripled, and net population growth between 1900 and 2000 will most likely be of the order of 4.5 billion. Concern with the deleterious consequences of rapid population growth on domestic economic development and, by extension on the health of the world economy is a major factor in explaining international interest in population matters. Concern with poverty is another motivating force for international action involving unilateral resource transfers between nations. The potential role of 2 types of population policies -- relating to international migration and to mortality -- would seem to be narrowly circumscribed. The prospects for useful action in the matter of fertility are more promising.
[Hunger and disease in less developed countries and en route to development (the Third World). Proposal for solutions] Hambre y enfermedades en los paises menos adelantados y en vias de desarrollo (Tercer Mundo). Propuesta de soluciones.
Anales de la Real Academia Nacional de Medicina. 1984; 101(1):39-96.The extent, causes, and possible solutions to problems of hunger, inequality, and disease in developing countries are discussed in this essay. Various frameworks and indicators have been proposed for identifying the poorest of nations; currently, 21 African, 9 Asian, and 1 American nation are regarded as the poorest of the poor. The 31 least developed countries, the 89 developing countries, and the 37 developed countries respectively have populations of 283 million, 3 billion; infant mortality rates of 160, 94, and 19/1000 live births; life expectancies of 45, 60, and 72 years; literacy rates of 28, 55, and 98%; per capita gross national products of $170, and $520, and $6230; and per capita public health expenditures of $1.70, $6.50, and $244. Developing countries in the year 2000 are expected to have 4.87 billion of the world's 6.2 billion inhabitants. The 3rd world contains 70% of the world's population but receives only 17% of world income. 40 million persons die of hunger or its consequences each year. Economic and social development is the only solution to problems of poverty and underdevelopment, and will require mobilization of all present and future human and material resources to achieve maximum possible wellbeing for each human being. Among principal causes of underdevelopment in the 3rd World are drought, illness, exile, socioeconomic disorder, war, and arms expenditures. Current food production and a long list of possible new technologies would be adequate to feed the world's population, but poor distribution condemns the world's people to hunger. Numerous UN agencies, organizations, and programs are dedicated to solving the problems of hunger, underdevelopment, and disease. In 1982, 600 billion dollars were spent in armanents, of $112 for each of the world's inhabitants; diversion of these resources to development goals would go a long way toward solving the problem of underdevelopment. The main problem is not lack of resources, but the need to establish a new and more just economic and distributive order along with genuine solidarity in the struggle against underdevelopment. Several steps should be taken: agricultural production should be increased with the full participation of the developng nations; the industrialized or petroleum-producing nations should aid the poor states with at least .7% and up to 5% of their gross national products for the struggle against drought, disease, illiteracy, and for the green revolution and new agropastoral technologies; prices paid to poor countries for raw materials should be fair; responsible parenthood, education, women's rights, clean drinking water, environmental sanitation and primary health care should be promoted; the arms race should be halted, and the North-South dialogue should be pursued in a spirit of goodwill and cooperation.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. ix, 534 p. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements ST/ESA/SER.A/90)Contained in this volume are the report (Part I) and the selected papers (Part II) of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development which review past trends and their likely future course in each of the 4 areas, taking into account not only evolving concepts but also the need to consider population, resources, environment and development as a unified structure. Trends noted in the population factor include world population growth and the differences between rates in the developed and developing countries; the decline in the proportion of the population who are very young and the concomitant increase in the average age of the population. Discussed within the resource factor are the labor force, the problem of increasing capital shortage, expenditures on armaments, trends in the supply and productivity of arable land, erosion and degradation of topsoil and energy sources. Many of the problems identified overlap with the environment factor, which centers on the problem of pollution. The group on the development factor was influenced by a pervasiv sense of "crisis" in current economic trends. Concern was also expressed regarding the qualitative aspects of current development trends, defined as the perverse effects of having adopted inappropriate styles of development. Part II begins with a general overview of recent levels and trends in the 4 areas along with the concepts of carrying capacity and optimum population. Other papers discuss the impact of trends in resources, environment and development on demographic prospects; long-term effects of global population growth on the international system; economic considerations in the choice of alternative paths to a stationary population and the need for integration of demographic factors in development planning. The various papers on the resources and environment factor focus on resources as a barrier to population growth; the effects of population growth on renewable resources; food production and population growth in Africa; the frailty of the balance between the 4 areas and the need for a holistic approach on a scale useful for regional planning. Also addressed are: social development; population and international economic relations; development, lifestyles, population and environment in Latin America; issues of population growth, inequality and poverty; health, population and development trends; education requirements and trends in female literacy; the challenge posed by the aging of populations; and population and development in the ECE region.
Who Chronicle. 1984; 38(5):217-24.As part of its regional strategy for attaining health for all, the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region seeks to reduce sex differentials in mortality. In developing countries, the health consequences of social, economic, and cultural discrimination against females have produced a higher mortality rate among females than males. In contrast, there is a trend toward increasing excess male mortality in the developed countries. The sex differential in mortality arises from 2 broad groups of causes: genetic-biological and enivronmental. In high mortality countries, environmental factors may reduce or cancel out the biological advantages that women enjoy over men. As mortality is reduced through improved nutrition, public health measures, and better health care and education, women's environmental disadvantage is reduced and genetic-biological factors may increase the female life span faster than that of males. In the 3rd phase of this process, life style factors (e.g. alcohol abuse, cigarette smoking) may become increasingly detrimental to male health and survival, leading female mortality to decline at a faster pace than that of males. Although males appear to have adapted less well than women to the stresses of modernization, there has been a trend toward high risk behavior patterns among women too as a result of the changing female role. Prospects for the future trend of sex differentials in developed societies depend largely on developments in 2 areas: the effective treatment of degenerative and chronic diseases, which dominate the cause-of-death structure in these societies; and prevention through health education and encouragement of changes in personal behavior and life style. The challenge for women is to resist pressures to adopt a hazardous life style (e.g. smoking) that might offset the benefits of their improved social status.
Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)