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  1. 1
    033687

    Demographic trends and their development implications.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)

    This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
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  2. 2
    030014

    Long-term effects of global population growth on the international system.

    Demeny P

    In: Population, resources, environment and development. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development, Geneva, 25-29 April 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 125-43. (Population Studies No. 90; ST/ESA/SER.A/90; International Conference on Population, 1984)

    4 overlapping and interrelated concerns appear to influence, if unevenly and in varying combinations, the approaches towards international population phenomena embodied in national policies. The concerns have to do with shifts in relative demographic size within the family of nations, international economic and political stability, humanitarian and welfare considerations, and narrowing options with regard to longterm social development. Each of these concerns is a reflection of measurable or perceived consequences of the extraordinarily rapid growth of the world population during the 20th century and in particular of the marked acceleration of that growth since the end of World War 2. None of these concerns has been adequately articulated, either in the academic literature or in international and national forums in which population policies are considered. International action in the population field has become a subset of international development assistance. Among the motivating concerns, humanitarian and welfare considerations have received the most attention. Considerations of economic and political stability also have been often invoked. In contrast, shifts in relative demographic size and the narrowing options with respect to longterm social development have been seldom discussed. Yet, examination of the record of policy discussions of the last few decades confirms that the influence of these factors has been potent. The dramatic increase of the world population is possibly the single most spectacular event of modern history. During the last 100 years global numbers have tripled, and net population growth between 1900 and 2000 will most likely be of the order of 4.5 billion. Concern with the deleterious consequences of rapid population growth on domestic economic development and, by extension on the health of the world economy is a major factor in explaining international interest in population matters. Concern with poverty is another motivating force for international action involving unilateral resource transfers between nations. The potential role of 2 types of population policies -- relating to international migration and to mortality -- would seem to be narrowly circumscribed. The prospects for useful action in the matter of fertility are more promising.
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  3. 3
    027804

    Country statement: Ethiopia.

    [Unpublished] 1984. Presented at the Second African Population Conference, Arusha, Tanzania, January 9-13, 1984. 21 p.

    This discussion of Ethiopia focuses on: sources of demographic data; population size and age-sex distribution; urbanization; fertility; marital status of the population; mortality and health; rate of natural increase; economic activity and labor force activity rates; food production; education; population policies and programs; and population in development planning. As of 1983, Ethiopia's population was estimated at 33.7 million. Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy. Ethiopia has not yet conducted a population census, however, the 1st population and housing census is planned for 1984. The population is young with children under 15 years of age constituting 45.4% of the total population; 3.5% of the population are aged 65 years and older. The degree of urbanization is very low while the urban growth rate is very high. Most of the country is rural with only 15% of the population living in localities of 2000 or more inhabitants. In 1980-81 the crude birthrate was 46.9/1000. The total fertility rate was 6.9. Of those aged 15 years and older, 69.2% of males and 71.3% of females are married. According to the 1980-81 Demographic Survey the estimates of the levels of mortality were a crude death rate of 18.4/1000 and an infant mortality rate of 144/1000. At this time 45% of the population have access to health services. It is anticipated that 80% of the population will be covered by health care services in 10 years time. Ethiopia is increasing at a very rapid rate of natural increase; the 1980 estimation was 2.9% per annum. Despite the rich endowments in agricultural potential, Ethiopia is not self-sufficient in food production and reamins a net importer of grain. Enrollment at various levels of education is expanding rapidly. There is no official population policy. Financial assistance received from the UN Fund for Population Activities and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund for population programs is shown.
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  4. 4
    026165

    Reflections on population.

    Salas RM

    New York, Pergamon, 1984. 240 p.

    This book, a sequel to "International Population Assistance: The First Decade," characterizes the work of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) with the developing countries up to 1984, relating these experiences to the issues before the 1984 International Conference on Population. The 1st chapter provides an overview of the significant developments in population up to the 1984 International Conference on Population. The next 7 chapters discuss the following main issues before the Conference and generally reflect the arrangement of the document to be brought before the Conference concerning recommendations for further implementation of the World Population Plan of Action: fertility, status of women and the family; morbidity and mortality; population distribution, internal and international migration; population growth and structure; promotion of knowledge and implementation of policies and programs; international cooperation and the role of UNFPA; and the year 2000 and beyond. Within each of these chapters, excerpts have been arranged in an analytic order, with the aim of facilitating the flow of arguments presented. Appendices contain the 5 "State of World Population Reports" issued from 1980-84 and 7 Rafael M. Salas statements which, primarily due to their focus on the population issues of particular importance to the major regions of the globe, are reproduced in their entirety. This volume reflects the process of population policymaking of the UNFPA with the developing countries in support of their population programs in the past 15 years. These policies were sanctioned and validated, both nationally by the countries themselves and globally by UN deliberative bodies and conferences. The experience of UNFPA in policy formulation indicates that an effective population policy must have its proper time perspective and must be scientifically determined in its component elements, normative and applicable at different levels, multisectoral in its emphasis, and measurable in its impact and consequenes.
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  5. 5
    026268

    Concise report on the world population situation in 1983: conditions, trends, prospects, policies.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)

    The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
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  6. 6
    025380

    Statistics on children in UNICEF countries.

    UNICEF

    New York, UNICEF, 1984 May. 280 p.

    The data in this set of 135 country profiles for 1981 are made up from 9 major sources and cover the countries and territories with which the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) cooperates. In terms of infant morttality, countries are divided into 5 infant mortality groups: a very high infant mortality (a) group of countries, with a 1981 infant mortality rate (IMR) estimate of 150 (rounded) or more deaths per 1000 live births; a very high infant mortality (b) group of countries with a 1981 IMR estimate between 110 (rounded) and 140 (rounded); a high infant mortality group of a middle infant mortality group of countries, with a 1981 IMR estimate of between 26 and 50 (rounded); and a low infnat mortality group of countries, with a 1981 IMR estimate of 25 or less. For each country data are also presented on nutrition, demographic, education, and economic indicators.
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