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[National Conference on Fertility and Family, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oaxaca, April 13, 1984] Reunion Nacional sobre Fecundidad y Familia, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oax., a 13 de abril de 1984.
Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 228 p.Proceedings of a national conferences on the family and fertility held in April 1984 as part of Mexico's preparation for the August 1984 World Population Conference are presented. 2 opening addresses outline the background and objectives of the conference, while the 1st paper details recommendations of a 1983 meeting on fertility and the family held in New Delhi. The main body of the report presents 2 conference papers and commentary. The 1st paper, on fertility, contraception, and family planning, discusses fertility policies; levels and trends of fertility in Mexico from 1900 to 1970 and since 1970; socioeconomic and geographic fertility differentials; the relationship of mortality and fertility; contraception and the role of intermediate variables; the history and achievements of family planning activities of the private and public sectors in Mexico; and the relationship between contraception, fertility, and family planning. The 2nd paper, on the family as a sociodemographic unit and subject of population policies, discusses the World Population Plan of Action and current sociodemographic policies in Mexico; the family as a sociodemographic unit, including the implications of formal demography for the study of family phenomena, the dynamic sociodemographic composition of the family unit, and the family as a mediating unit for internal and external social actions; and steps in development of a possible population policy in which families would be considered an active part, including ideologic views of the family as a passive object of policy and possible mobilization strategies for families in population policies. The conference as a whole concluded by reaffirming the guiding principles of Mexico's population policy, including the right of couples to decide the number and spacing of their children, the fundamental objective of the population policy of elevating the socioeconomic and cultural level of the population, the view of population policy as an essential element of development policy, and the right of women to full participation. Greater efforts were believed to be necessary in such priority areas as integration of family planning programs with development planning and population policy, creation of methodologies for the analysis of families in their social contexts, development and application of contraceptive methodologies, promotion of male participation in family planning, coordination of federal and state family planning programs, and creation of sociodemographic information systems to ensure availability of more complete date on families in specific population sectors. The principles of the World Population Plan of Action were also reaffirmed.
Demography India. 1984 Jan-Dec; 13(1-2):153-67.The threshold hypothesis shares with transition theory the basic assumption that a decline in fertility is interrelated with a decline in mortality and change in the social, economic, and cultural conditions of the population. However, threshold theory fails to formulate a causal chain between fertility and the other variables and its application at the aggregate country level is limited by intracountry heterogeneity in cultural and social variables. Problematic is the fixing of the timing for a country of a decline in fertility to be inferred from the fact that some indicators of development have reached the threshold zone while others have not. This paper attempts to develope a combined index for socioeconomic development on the basis of data from 12 countries of the ESCAP region of South East Asia. Variables included were life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, adult female literacy, percentages of females economically active, GNP per capita, and percentage urban population. In 1970, 3 of the countries analyzed had a crude birth rate below 25, 6 countries had a rate between 25-40, and 3 had a rate above 40. The lowest value of the index recorded for countries of low fertility (crude birth rate below 25) and the highest value recorded for countries of high fertility (above 40) are taken as the threshold zones for the overall index. The number of countries in the threshold range increased from 5 in 1970 to 8 in 1975. With the increase in the index value, a reduction in the fertility level was noted. In contrast, where socioeconomic development was slow, fertility showed little change. Policy makers could use this system to assess which indicator could be pushed through to raise the overall index of development so as to effect a decline in fertility.
In: Aspects of population change and development in some African and Asian countries. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1984. 43-56. (CDC Research Monograph Series no. 9)This paper examines the relationship between economic development and demographic change in the 13 states of the Economic Commission for West Asia (ECWA) region. Demographic variables considered include per capita income, proportion urban, proportion in urban areas with over 100,000 inhabitants, literacy among those over 15 years, and literacy among women. Unweighted rankings on these variables were added to produce a development ranking or general development index. Then this index was used to investigate the relationship between development and individual scores and rankings for various demographic indices. The development index exhibited a rough fit with the mortality indices, especially life expectancy at birth. Mortality decline appears to be most closely related to rise in income. At the same income level, countries that have experienced substantial social change tend to exhibit the lowest mortality, presumably because of a loosening in family role patterns. In contrast, the relationship between development and fertility measures seemed to be almost random. A far closer correlation was noted between the former and the general development index. It is concluded that economic development alone will not reduce fertility. Needed are 2 changes: 1) profound social change in the family and in women's status, achievable through increases in female education, and 2) government family planning programs to ensure access to contraception.
In: Demographic trends in the European region: health and social implications, edited by Alan D. Lopez and Robert L. Cliquet. Copenhagen, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, 1984. 5-67. (WHO Regional Publications, European Series No. 17; Project RMI/79/P05)This chapter presents an overview of recent demographic trends in Europe and discusses the implications of these trends for health and social services. The discussion is based on reports received from 15 of the 33 Member States of the European Region of the World Health Organization. The components of demographic change analyzed included population growth and structure, family formation, fertility, mortality, and population movement. Increases in the number and proportion of the elderly were noted and the traditional excess of births over deaths is expected to change in future years. Population aging is expected to continue to be a principal concern for the social services sector. The increasing emphasis on caring for rather than attempting to cure chronic illnesses among the aged suggests a need for more nursing homes and home-help services. Anticipation of future morbidity and mortality patterns implies a need to focus on specific risk groups, e.g. migrants, adult males, and those from lower socioeconomic groupings. With regard to fertility, adolescent sexual activity and the low use levels of contraception among teenagers comprise areas where greater service provision is necessary. In addition, there is a need for more vocational training for women, improved child care facilities, and full-time employment opportunities better suited to the needs of workers with dependent children. As a result of smaller families, increased divorce rates, the discrepancy between male and female survival, and greater regional mobility, markedly higher numbers of single individuals can be expected. Rapidly evolving changes in family formation, social norms, and underlying demographic trends will continue to alter European societies in the years ahead. The interrelationships between health and demographic phenomenon must continue to be probed to form a basis for future health and social planning.
Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
New York, Pergamon, 1984. 240 p.This book, a sequel to "International Population Assistance: The First Decade," characterizes the work of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) with the developing countries up to 1984, relating these experiences to the issues before the 1984 International Conference on Population. The 1st chapter provides an overview of the significant developments in population up to the 1984 International Conference on Population. The next 7 chapters discuss the following main issues before the Conference and generally reflect the arrangement of the document to be brought before the Conference concerning recommendations for further implementation of the World Population Plan of Action: fertility, status of women and the family; morbidity and mortality; population distribution, internal and international migration; population growth and structure; promotion of knowledge and implementation of policies and programs; international cooperation and the role of UNFPA; and the year 2000 and beyond. Within each of these chapters, excerpts have been arranged in an analytic order, with the aim of facilitating the flow of arguments presented. Appendices contain the 5 "State of World Population Reports" issued from 1980-84 and 7 Rafael M. Salas statements which, primarily due to their focus on the population issues of particular importance to the major regions of the globe, are reproduced in their entirety. This volume reflects the process of population policymaking of the UNFPA with the developing countries in support of their population programs in the past 15 years. These policies were sanctioned and validated, both nationally by the countries themselves and globally by UN deliberative bodies and conferences. The experience of UNFPA in policy formulation indicates that an effective population policy must have its proper time perspective and must be scientifically determined in its component elements, normative and applicable at different levels, multisectoral in its emphasis, and measurable in its impact and consequenes.
Draper Fund Report. 1984 Jun; (13):1-3.The UN International Conference on Population to be held in Mexico City in August 1984, responding to an unprecedented upsurge of interest in population over the last decade, offers developed and developing countries the opportunity to assess current and likely future population trends, to comment on programs and progress during the past 10 years, and to determine desirable future directions. More developing countries are reporting diminished declining fertility and family size in countries of widely varying ethnic, social, and economic makeup. Although it is likely that the future will bring a steadily declining rate of world population growth, culminating in stability, present trends indicate that it will take more than a century for world population to stabilize. Meanwhile growth continues. The developing world's annual average birthrate from1975-80 was twice as high as the developed world's. Also there are large areas, much of Latin America and most of Africa, where growth rates continue very high. Other areas, such as parts of Asia, do not follow the general declining trend despite trend despite, in some instances, a long history of population programs. Interest in population programs and demand for resources to support them are growing, but the population dimension is sometimes unrecognized in development planning. The experience of the last decade illustrates that population assistance can make a uniquely valuable contribution to national development when it is given in accord with national policies, is appropriate to local conditions and needs, and is delivered where it can make the most impact. Substantial evidence exists that women in the developing world undertand the risks of repeated pregrancy and would like to take steps to reduce them. It is evident that providers of family planning services are not yet sufficiently responsive to women's own perceptions of their needs and that the social and economic conditions which make family planning a reasonable option do not yet exist. Influxes of immigrants, short and long term, legal and illegal, create particular problems for receiving countries. It is important for sending countries to know what effect the absence of their nationals is having on the domestic economy and essential for receiving countries to consider the protection of the human rights of international migrants, including settlers, workers, undocumented migrants, and refugees. It is a particular responsibility of the industrialized nations to make careful use of limited resources and to ensure that their comsumption contributes to the overall balance of the environment. In most developing countries infectious and parasitic disease remains the primary cause of death, particularly among the young. Much of this toll is preventable. The International Conference on Population provides an opportunity to establish in broad terms the conditions and directions of future cooperation.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 25-32. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)The United Nations population projection assumptions are statements of expected trends in fertility, mortality and migration in the world. In every assessment, each of the 3 demographic components is unambiguously specified at the national level for each of the 5-year periods during the population interval (1950-2025). The approach used by the UN in preparing its projections is briefly summarized. At the general level, the analyst relies on available information of past events and current demographic levels and differentials, the demographic trends and experiences of similar countries in the region and his or her informed interpretations of what is likely to occur in the future. One common feature of the UN population projections that guides the analyst in preparing the assumptions is the general conceptual scheme of the demographic transition, or the socio-economic threshold hypothesis of fertility decline. As can be observed from the projected demographic trends reported in this paper, population stabilization at low levels of fertility, mortality and migration is the expected future for each country, with the only important differences being the timing of the stabilization. Irrespective of whether the country is developed, with very low fertility (for example, the Federal Republic of Germany or Japan), or developing with high fertility (such as, Bangladesh or the Syrian Arab Republic), it is assumed that fertility will arrive at replacement levels in the not too distant future. Serious alternative theories or hypotheses of population change, such as declining population size, are not only very few in number, but they tend to be somewhat more unacceptable and inconvenient to the demographic analyst as well as being considerably less palatable to goverments.