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  1. 1
    024920

    Recommendations.

    United Nations. Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 4-6. (Population Studies No. 83 ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    These recommendations refer specifically to the work of the Population Division of the UN and the regional commissions and more generally to the work of the specialized agenices, which prepare projections of labor force and school enroolment. The current recommendations may be regarded as updating an earlier detailed set that was issued by a similar group of experts who convened in New York in November 1977. The recommendations cover general considerations, sources and assumptions, evaluation of projections and their uses, and internal migration and urbanization. The Population Division should consider the question of an optimal time schedule for publishing new estimates and projections in order to avoid unduly long intervals between publications and intervals so short as to cause confusion. The UN Secretariat has an important role in pursuing work on methodology of projections and making it available to demographers in the developing countries. Unique problems of demographic projection exist for those countries with particularly small populations. It is proposed that the Population Division prepare special tabulations, whenever possible, giving the estimated age and sex distribution for these countries. Future publications of population projections prepared by the Population Division should indicate the major data sources on which the projections are based and note if the data were adjusted before inclusion. In addition, some grading of the quality of the base data should be presented. For the UN set of national and international population projections, a more comprehensive system of establishing assumptions about the future trends of fertility is needed. The Secretariat needs to focus more attention on the evaluation of its population projections. UN publications of projections should report on the main errors in recent past projections with respect to estimates of baseline levels and trends and provide some evaluation of the quality of the current estimates. It is recommended that the UN encourage countries to establish a standard definition of urban which would be used for international comparisons but generally not replace current national definitions. The Secretariat should review the techniques currently used to project urban-rural and city populations and search for methodologies appropriate to the level of urbanization and the quality of data which would improve the accuracy of the projections. The Division should regularly produce long range population projections for the world and major countries and should continue and expand its household estimates and projection series, which provides information essential to government administrators and planning agencies, businesses, and researchers in all countries.
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  2. 2
    037161

    [National Conference on Fertility and Family, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oaxaca, April 13, 1984] Reunion Nacional sobre Fecundidad y Familia, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oax., a 13 de abril de 1984.

    Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]

    Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 228 p.

    Proceedings of a national conferences on the family and fertility held in April 1984 as part of Mexico's preparation for the August 1984 World Population Conference are presented. 2 opening addresses outline the background and objectives of the conference, while the 1st paper details recommendations of a 1983 meeting on fertility and the family held in New Delhi. The main body of the report presents 2 conference papers and commentary. The 1st paper, on fertility, contraception, and family planning, discusses fertility policies; levels and trends of fertility in Mexico from 1900 to 1970 and since 1970; socioeconomic and geographic fertility differentials; the relationship of mortality and fertility; contraception and the role of intermediate variables; the history and achievements of family planning activities of the private and public sectors in Mexico; and the relationship between contraception, fertility, and family planning. The 2nd paper, on the family as a sociodemographic unit and subject of population policies, discusses the World Population Plan of Action and current sociodemographic policies in Mexico; the family as a sociodemographic unit, including the implications of formal demography for the study of family phenomena, the dynamic sociodemographic composition of the family unit, and the family as a mediating unit for internal and external social actions; and steps in development of a possible population policy in which families would be considered an active part, including ideologic views of the family as a passive object of policy and possible mobilization strategies for families in population policies. The conference as a whole concluded by reaffirming the guiding principles of Mexico's population policy, including the right of couples to decide the number and spacing of their children, the fundamental objective of the population policy of elevating the socioeconomic and cultural level of the population, the view of population policy as an essential element of development policy, and the right of women to full participation. Greater efforts were believed to be necessary in such priority areas as integration of family planning programs with development planning and population policy, creation of methodologies for the analysis of families in their social contexts, development and application of contraceptive methodologies, promotion of male participation in family planning, coordination of federal and state family planning programs, and creation of sociodemographic information systems to ensure availability of more complete date on families in specific population sectors. The principles of the World Population Plan of Action were also reaffirmed.
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  3. 3
    268449

    Report on the evaluation of UNFPA assistance to the strengthening of the civil registration and vital statistics system in Sierra Leone: project SIL/79/P03.

    Kannisto V; Mehta DC; McWilliam J

    New York, New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA], 1984 Dec. x, 28 p.

    While Sierra Leone has a long tradition in registering births and deaths, dating back to the mid-1880s, registration has remained low. In order to improve registration coverage, the original project formulated in 1979 by the government included 3 immediate objectives; the strengthening of the civil registration system in a model area, the experimentation with field organization procedures most suitable for the registration system in the country, and the production of estimates of demographic variables in the model area and in the rest of the country. In the Tripartite Project Review held in 1981, 2 additional objectives were added to the project; the unification of the civil registration laws, including the provision of a uniform and universal legislation for the entire country, and the reorganization and training of the registration hierarchy. While the strategy to use a model area for the development was a sound one, without the law being enacted, new forms and registers could not be printed and thus few of the planned activities could take place. Of the 5 immediate objectives of the project, only one has been achieved--the passage of the Act of 1983 which provides the legal framework for registration to take place nationwide under the new system. Little progress has been made in the achievement of the 4 remaining objectives. The Evaluation Mission made recommendations concerning the need to reformulate the extension document early in 1985, taking into account the results of the Evaluation Mission, the concentration of government action on registration in the non-model areas, and thereafter the gradual expansion of registration to adjacent areas where more complete coverage is possible.
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  4. 4
    030884

    Technical co-operation in the field of mortality and health policy.

    United Nations. Department of Technical Co-operation for Development

    In: Mortality and health policy. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Mortality and Health Policy, Rome, 30 May to 3 June 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 270-88. (International Conference on Population, 1984; ST/ESA/SER.A/91)

    This paper reviews the technical cooperation efforts undertaken by the United Nations Department of Technical Cooperation for Development (DTCD) to help combat the high mortality levels in developing countries and to evolve policies in response to the World Population Plan of Action. Although the transfer of medical technology and the provision of drugs and other medical supplies remain important means of controlling death and disease, there is growing recognition of the need to develop national skills to deal with mortality, to maintain a continuous record of mortality and morbidity levels and their response to ameliorative programs, and to analyze the interrelationships between demographic, health, and socioeconomic variables. DTCD has focused on data collection and analysis, the integration of research findings into population policy formulation, and training and skill development to facilitate self-reliance. However, the lack of regular mechanisms for coordinating the activities of the various United Nations agencies that play a role in in technical cooperation in the areas of mortality and health policy has been a serious limitation. Another problem has been the dearth of tested alternative techniques for conducting simple health surveys whose results could be used in planning. Closer cooperation between United Nations agencies in this field is urged. It is also important that the recent reassignment of a low priority to data collection and analysis on the part of the United Nations Development Program be reversed. Unless data collection, analysis, and evaluation are reassigned a high priority, planners will be forced to depend on subjective judgments to evolve mortality policies. Finally, technical cooperation activities that aim to integrate mortality and morbidity control into population policies must be responsive to human rights.
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  5. 5
    024921

    Some problems in the making of population projections.

    Tabah L

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 15-6. (Population Studies No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    As the UN demographic estimates and projections cover all the developed and developing countries, special problems are encountered in data collection and evaluations. The responsibility for the UN projections rests primarily with the Population Division, but the results are the product of collaboration by all responsible offices within the UN system. This is 1 of the strengths of the UN population projections, yet there are numerous problems concerning those projections. Aside from the perpetual difficulties with collection and estimation of basic demographic indicators from incomplete data, all of which must be continuously undertaken, there are 8 major problems which have become more important in recent years and concern the current UN demographic projections. The 1st problem is the question of meeting the needs of the users who are the researchers, the planners, and the policymakers. The 2nd problem is that significant improvement can be made in the methodologies with, on the 1 hand, the prodigious advances in calculation devices and research techniques and on the other, a better knowledge of the economic and social context of demographic variables. The 3rd major problem in the component method of projections of fertility, which continues to be the most influential component to the future population of most nations. Another component of projection, mortality, has become a pressing issue in the field of projection as well. Knowledge of mortality in the third world is highly fragmentary. The 5th problematic issue is urbanization and city growth. There are severe problems with data comparability and projection methods. Sixth, for several developing and developed countries international migration plays a significant role in their population growth. More problematic than estimating the current net numbers of migrants is formulating assumptions about future patterns of international migration. Seventh, thus far demographic projections have largely been based on the demographic theory of transition, which appears to continue to be useful for developing countries. Yet, the demographic transition models are affected by a wider variety of trajectories than anticipated. Finally, no one has been able to explain clearly the major simultaneous movements of fertility of the developed countries. The question of obvious policy significance is what will happen in the future.
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