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  1. 1
    099402

    National report on population. Prepared for the International Conference on Population and Development, September 1994.

    Tunisia. Ministry of Planning and Regional Development

    [Tunis], Tunisia, Ministry of Planning and Regional Development, 1994 Aug. 57 p.

    Tunisia's country report for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development opens with a brief discussion of the country's history and development achievements (the population growth rate has been reduced from 3.2% in the beginning of the 1960s to less than 2%, and Tunisia has achieved significant improvement over the past 2 decades in human development indices). Tunisia's population policy has gone through 3 stages: the establishment of an important legal framework during the 1950s and 60s, the creation of a National Family and Population Board and establishment of basic health care facilities during the 1970s, and an emphasis on environmentally-responsible development with an attempt to strengthen the integration of population policies into development strategies beginning in the 1980s. The report continues with an overview of the demographic context (historical trends and future prospects). The chapter on population policies and programs covers the evolution and status of the policies; sectoral strategies; development and research; a profile of the family health, family planning (FP), IEC (information, education, and communication), and data collection and analysis programs. This chapter also provides details on policies and programs which link women and families to population and development and on those which concern mortality, population distribution, and migration. The third major section of the report presents operational features of the implementation of population and FP programs, in particular, political support, program formulation and execution, supervision and evaluation, financing, and the importance and relevance of the world plan of action for population. Tunisia's national action plan for the future is discussed next in terms of new problems and priorities and a mobilization of resources. This section also includes a table which sets out the components, goals, strategies, and programs of action of the population policy. In conclusion, it is stated that Tunisia's population policy fits well with the world program of action because it promotes human resources and sustainable development and respects international recommendations about human rights in general and the rights of women in particular.
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  2. 2
    037960

    [Population and development in the Republic of Zaire: policies and programs] Population et developpement en Republique du Zaire: politiques et programmes.

    Zaire. Departement du Plan. Direction des Etudes Macroeconomiques

    [Unpublished] 1986. Presented at the All-Africa Parliamentary Conference on Population and Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 12-16, 1986. 9 p.

    The 1st census of Zaire, in July 1984, indicated that the population of 30 million was growing at a rate of at least 2.3%/year. The crude birth rate was estimated at 46/1000 and was believed to be higher in urban areas than in rural because of better health and educational conditions. The crude death rate was estimated at 16/1000 and the infant mortality rate at 106/1000. 46.5% of the population is under 15. The population is projected to reach 34.5 million in 1990, with urban areas growing more rapidly than rural. Zaire is at the stage of demographic transition where the gap between fertility and mortality is very wide. The consequences for national development include massive migration and rural exodus, unemployment and underemployment, illness, low educational levels, rapid urbanization, and increasing poverty. In the past decade, Zaire has undertaken a number of activities intended to improve living conditions, but as yet there is no explicit official policy integrating population and development objectives. In 1983, the Executive Council of Zaire organized a mission to identify basic needs of the population, with the assistance of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). In 1985, the UNFPA developed a 5-year development plan. The UNFPA activities include demographic data collection, demographic policy and research, maternal-child health and family planning, population education, and women and development. In the area of data collection, the 1st census undertaken with UNFPA help has increased the availability of timely and reliable demographic data. The vital registration system is to be improved and a permanent population register to be developed to provide data on population movement. A National Population Committee is soon to be established to assist the Executive Council in defining a coherent population policy in harmony with the economic, social, and cultural conditions of Zaire. Demographic research will be conducted by the Demographic Department of the University of Kinshasa and the National Institute of Statistics. A primary health care policy has been defined to increase health coverage to 60% from the current level of 20%. Zaire has favored family planning services integrated with the primary health care system since 1979. At present 2 components of the Desirable Births" program are underway, the Desirable Births Service Project undertaken in 1983 and the Rural Health Project undertaken in 1982, both executed by the Department of Public Health with financing provided by US Agency for International Development. The RAPID (Resources for the Analysis of the Impact of Population on Development) program has been used since 1985 to inform politicians, technicians, and planners. Efforts have been underway since 1965 to include women in the development process, and a new family code is being studied which would give better protection to some rights of women and children.
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  3. 3
    273089

    Social studies and population education. Book Two: man in his environment.

    University of Sierra Leone. Institute of Education

    Freetown, Sierra Leone, Ministry of Education, 1984. 80 p. (UNFPA/UNESCO Project SIL/76/POI)

    The National Programme in Social Studies in Sierra Leone has created this textbook in the social sciences for secondary school students. Unit 1, "Man's Origins, Development and Characteristics," presents the findings of archaeologists and anthropologists about the different periods of man's development. Man's mental development and population growth are also considered. Unit 2, "Man's Environment," discusses the physical and social environments of Sierra Leone, putting emphasis on the history of migrations into Sierra Leone and the effects of migration on population growth. Unit 3, "Man's Culture," deals with cultural traits related to marriage and family structure, different religions of the world, and traditional beliefs and population issues. Unit 4, "Population and Resources," covers population distribution and density and the effects of migration on resources. The unit also discusses land as a resource and the effects of the land tenure system, as well as farming systems, family size and the role of women in farming communities. Unit 5, "Communication in the Service of Man", focuses on modern means of communication, especially mass media. Unit 6, "Global Issues: Achievements and Problems," discusses the identification of global issues, such as colonialism, the refugee problem, urbanization, and the population problems of towns and cities. The unit describes 4 organizations that have been formed in response to problems such as these: the UN, the Red Cross, the International Labor Organization, and the Co-operative for American Relief.
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  4. 4
    024920

    Recommendations.

    United Nations. Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 4-6. (Population Studies No. 83 ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    These recommendations refer specifically to the work of the Population Division of the UN and the regional commissions and more generally to the work of the specialized agenices, which prepare projections of labor force and school enroolment. The current recommendations may be regarded as updating an earlier detailed set that was issued by a similar group of experts who convened in New York in November 1977. The recommendations cover general considerations, sources and assumptions, evaluation of projections and their uses, and internal migration and urbanization. The Population Division should consider the question of an optimal time schedule for publishing new estimates and projections in order to avoid unduly long intervals between publications and intervals so short as to cause confusion. The UN Secretariat has an important role in pursuing work on methodology of projections and making it available to demographers in the developing countries. Unique problems of demographic projection exist for those countries with particularly small populations. It is proposed that the Population Division prepare special tabulations, whenever possible, giving the estimated age and sex distribution for these countries. Future publications of population projections prepared by the Population Division should indicate the major data sources on which the projections are based and note if the data were adjusted before inclusion. In addition, some grading of the quality of the base data should be presented. For the UN set of national and international population projections, a more comprehensive system of establishing assumptions about the future trends of fertility is needed. The Secretariat needs to focus more attention on the evaluation of its population projections. UN publications of projections should report on the main errors in recent past projections with respect to estimates of baseline levels and trends and provide some evaluation of the quality of the current estimates. It is recommended that the UN encourage countries to establish a standard definition of urban which would be used for international comparisons but generally not replace current national definitions. The Secretariat should review the techniques currently used to project urban-rural and city populations and search for methodologies appropriate to the level of urbanization and the quality of data which would improve the accuracy of the projections. The Division should regularly produce long range population projections for the world and major countries and should continue and expand its household estimates and projection series, which provides information essential to government administrators and planning agencies, businesses, and researchers in all countries.
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  5. 5
    098973

    India: country statement. International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 1994.

    India. Department of Family Welfare

    New Delhi, India, Department of Family Welfare, 1994. [5], 61 p.

    The country report prepared by India for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development opens by noting that India's population has increased from 361.1 million in 1951 to 846.3 million in 1991. In describing the demographic context of this, the largest democracy in the world, information is given on the growth rate, the sex ratio, the age structure, marital status, demographic transition, internal migration, urbanization, the economically active population and the industrial structure, literacy and education, data collection and analysis, and the outlook for the future. The second section of the report discusses India's population policy, planning, and programmatic framework. Topics covered include the national perception of population issues, the evolution of the population policy, the national family welfare program (infrastructure and services; maternal and child health; information, education, and communication; and achievements), the relationship of women to population and development, the relationship of population issues and sectoral activities, the environment, adolescents and youth, and AIDS. The third section presents operational aspects of family welfare program implementation and covers political and national support, the implementation strategy, the new action plan, program achievements and constraints, monitoring and evaluation, and financial aspects. The national action plan for the future is the topic of the fourth chapter and is discussed in terms of emerging and priority concerns, the role and relevance of the World Population Plan of Action and other international instruments, international migration, science and technology, and economic stabilization, structural reforms, and international financial support. After a 24-point summary, demographic information is appended in 17 tables and charts.
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  6. 6
    099433

    The Philippines: country report on population. International Conference on Population and Development, 5-13 September 1994, Cairo, Egypt.

    Philippines. Commission on Population

    [Manila], Philippines, Commission on Population, 1994. [4], 40 p.

    The country report on population prepared by the Philippines for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development opens with a discussion of the 3 interdependent strategies which will be used to achieve development: total human resource development, international competitiveness, and sustainable development. Since the Philippines envisions development proceeding primarily from the initiatives of individuals, families, nongovernment organizations (NGOs), cooperatives, etc., empowerment of the people is a major objective of the government. To this end, the family is seen as the focal point for analysis of needs and resource use and for mobilization. The problems which beset the Philippines today and which are exacerbated by rapid population growth are pervasive poverty, a heavy debt burden, high unemployment and underemployment, a decrease in productive land, environmental degradation, and a poor economic performance. The country report considers the relationship between population, economic growth, and sustainable development in terms of the demographic situation and the economic situation. The report provides a history of the development of population policy and population programs in the country. The concerns of the population program are the environment and development, transitional population growth, the population structure, urbanization, migration, the status of women, maternal and child health and family planning (FP), and data collection and analysis. Various components of the implementation of the population program are described including political and national support, the national implementation strategy, the integration of population and development and assessment of integration efforts, responsible parenthood/FP, and the assessment of FP service delivery. Mechanisms for program monitoring and evaluation are presented along with an assessment of program efficiency, and the financial aspects of the program are discussed. After touching on the relevance of the World Population Plan of Action, the report puts forth the national 9-point action plan for the future which has the following goals: 1) to integrate population and development planning; 2) to strengthen the responsible parenthood/FP program; 3) to strengthen population education and the adolescent fertility program; 4) to increase the participation of women; 5) to build capabilities and develop institutions; 6) to decentralize administration; 7) to develop a sustainable financial plan; 8) to increase NGO and people's organization participation; and 9) to develop a reliable data base. The appendices present the demographic, health, and economic indicators for 1960-90 in tabular form and provide an outline of population policies, legislation, and incentives.
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  7. 7
    092019

    Synthesis of the expert group meetings convened as part of the substantive preparations for the International Conference on Population and Development.

    POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1993; (34-35):3-18.

    As part of the preparation for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development to be sponsored by the UN in Cairo, 6 expert groups were convened to consider 1) population growth; 2) population policies and programs; 3) population, development, and the environment; 4) migration; 5) the status of women; and 6) family planning programs, health, and family well-being. Each group included 15 experts representing a full range of relevant scientific disciplines and geographic regions. Each meeting lasted 5 days and included a substantive background paper prepared by the Population Division as well as technical papers. Each meeting concluded with the drafting of between 18 and 37 recommendations (a total of 162). The meeting on population, the environment, and development focused on the implications of current trends in population and the environment for sustained economic growth and sustainable development. The meeting on population policies and programs observed that, since 1984, there has been a growing convergence of views about population growth among the nations of the world and that the stabilization of world population as soon as possible is now an internationally recognized goal. The group on population and women identified practical steps that agencies could take to empower women in order to achieve beneficial effects on health, population trends, and development. The meeting on FP, health, and family well-being reviewed policy-oriented issues emerging from the experience of FP programs. The meeting on population growth and development reviewed trends and prospects of population growth and age structure and their consequences for global sustainability. The population distribution and migration experts appraised current trends and their interrelationship with development. In nearly all of the group meetings, common issues emerged. Concern was universally voiced for sustainable development and sustained economic growth, relevance of past experience, human rights, the status of women, the family, accessibility and quality of services, the special needs of subpopulations, AIDS, the roles of governments and nongovernmental organizations, community participation, research and data collection, and international cooperation.
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  8. 8
    092021

    Introduction. Review of the six expert group meetings.

    POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1993; (34-35):1.

    On July 26, 1991, the Economic and Social Council resolved to convene an International Conference on Population and Development under the auspices of the UN. To prepare for the conference, 6 expert group meetings were held to address the following issues: 1) population growth, demographic changes, and the interaction between demographic variables and socioeconomic development; 2) population policies and programs, emphasizing the mobilization of resources for developing countries; 3) the interrelationships between population, development, and the environment; 4) changes in the distribution of population; 5) the relationship between enhancing the status of women and population dynamics; and 6) family planning programs, health, and family well-being. A synthesis of these meetings is presented in the 34/35 issue of "Population Bulletin" (1993).
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  9. 9
    045892

    A world divided.

    Brown LR; Jacobson JL

    POPULI. 1987; 14(1):39-47.

    This reevaluation of the demographic transition theory of Notestein (1945) presents a view of developing countries trapped in the 2nd stage and unable to achieve the economic and social gains counted upon to reduce births. Among the half of the world's countries that have not yet reached the demographic transition, 5 regions have growth rates of 2.2% or more yearly, or 20-fold per century, a are unable to prevent declining living standards and deteriorating ecological life-support systems. These are Southeast Asia (except Japan, China, and possibly Thailand and Indonesia), Latin America, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East and Africa. In these countries, death rates will begin to rise, reversing the process of demographic transition. Examples of this phenomenon include 7 countries in West Africa with deteriorating agricultural and fuelwood yields, such that a World Bank study concluded that desertification is inevitable without a technological breakthrough. The elements of the life-support system, food, water, fuelwood and forests, are interrelated, and their failure will create "ecological refugees." When economic resources of jobs and income are added to biological resources, conflict and social instability will further hamper implementation of sound population policies. For the 1st time, governments are faced with the task of reducing birth rates as living conditions deteriorate, a challenge requiring new approaches. There are examples, such as China, where broad-based, inexpensive health care systems and well-designed family planning programs have encouraged small families without widespread economic gains. The most needed ingredient is leadership.
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  10. 10
    043668

    The demographic situation in the ECAFE region.

    United Nations. Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East [ECAFE]. Secretariat

    In: Population strategy in Asia. The Second Asian Population Conference, Tokyo, November 1972. Report, declaration and selected papers, [compiled by] United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East [ECAFE]. Bangkok, Thailand, ECAFE, 1974 Jun. 69-130. (Asian Population Study Series No. 28; E/C.N.11/1152)

    The Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) region currently includes 31 countries and territories. Since the first Asian Population Conference in 1963, there has been greater recognition of the adverse effects of rapid population growth on national development and on the standard of living of individual family units. By the year 2000, the population of the ECAFE region is expected to almost equal the total for the world in 1970, despite significantly slowed population growth in the East Asia subregion. During the periods 1900-1950 and 1950-2000, the average annual rates of growth for the population of the ECAFE region are estimated at 0.7% and 2.0%, respectively. The 4 largest countries in the region--China, India, Indonesia, and Japan--together hold 78% of the region's total population. Even in the countries where there has been a decline in fertility, it has not been sufficient to offset the effects of corresponding declines in mortality. The 1950 population of each country, except for China and Japan, will at least double itself by the year 2000. The number of preschool-aged children is expected to reach 356 million by 1980 and there will be 609 million school-aged children. Children ages 0-14 years currently comprise about 40% of the total population of the ECAFE region, producing a high dependency burden. The female population in the reproductive age group will grow from 474 million in 1970 to 593 million in 1980, implying that the fertility potential of the region will be accelerated. In addition, the population of persons aged 60 years and over will increase from 117 million in 1970 to 158 million in 1980, requiring significant investments in health facilities and social security. The urban population in the region is expected to increase from 25% in 1970 to 45% by 2000. Despite widespread awareness of the interrelation of population and development, no common approach among demographers, family plannes, and economic plannes has emerged.
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  11. 11
    037147

    [Recommendations of the Population World Plan of Action and of the United Nations Expert Group on Population Distribution, Migration and Development] Recomendaciones del Plan de Accion Mundial sobre Poblacion y del Grupo de Expertos de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo.

    De Oliveira O

    In: Reunion Nacional sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo, Guadalajara, Jalisco, 11 de mayo de 1984, [compiled by] Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]. Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 21-31.

    Highlights are presented of the expert meeting on population distribution, migration, and development held in Hammamet, Tunisia, in March 1983 to prepare for the 1984 World Population Conference. Rafael Salas, Secretary General of the World Population Conference, indicated in the inaugural address of the meeting that changes in the past 10 years including the increasing importance of short-term movements, illegal migrations, and refugees would require international agreements for their resolution. In the area of internal migrations, Salas suggested that in addition to migration to metropolitan areas which continues to predominate, short-term movements of various kinds need to be considered in policy. Improvement in the quality of life of the urban poor is an urgent need. Leon Tabah, Adjunct Secretary General of the World Population Conference, pointed out that population distribution and migration had received insufficient attention in the 1975 World Population Conference, and that the World Population Plan of Action should be modified accordingly. Among the most important findings of the meeting were: 1) The Plan of Action overstressed the negative effects of urbanization and rural migration. Available evidence suggests that migration and urbanization are effects rather than causes of a larger process of unequal regional and sectorial development 2) The historical context of each country should be considered in research and planning regarding population movements. 3) Analyses of the determinants and consequences of migration were reexamined in light of their relationship to the processes of employment, capital accumulation, land tenure, technological change, ethnic and educational aspects, and family dynamics. 4) The need to consider interrelationships between urban rural areas in formulation of policy affecting population distribution was emphasized. 5) National development strategies and macroeconomic and sectoral policies usually have stronger spatial effects than measures specifically designed to influence population distribution, and should be examined to ensure compatability of goals. 6) Population distribution policies should not be viewed as ends in themselves but as measures to achieve larger goals such as reducing socioeconomic inequalities. 7) Multiple levels of analysis should be utilized for understanding the causes and consequences of population movements. 8) Programs of assistance should be organized for migrants and their families. 9) The human and labor rights of migrants and nonmigrants should be considered in policy formulation. 10) Policies designed to improve living and working conditions of women are urgently needed.
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  12. 12
    037952

    Speech.

    Sadik N

    [Unpublished] 1986. Presented at the All-Africa Parliamentary Conference on Population and Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 12-16, 1986. 7 p.

    The Second African Conference on Population and Development, held early in 1984, marked a decisive stage in African thinking about population. During the 12 years between the 1972 and 1984 conferences, African nations learned in detail about their demographic situation and confronted the ever-increasing costs of development and their lack of physical and administrative infrastructure. In the midst of these and other concerns came the drought, which for over a decade in some parts of the continent has reduced rainfall, dried up rivers, lakes, and wells, and forced millions into flight. It is in this context that population became an African issue. African countries on the whole are not densely populated nor do they yet have very large concentrations in cities. Yet, population emerges as more than a matter of numbers, and there are features which give governments cause for concern. First, the population of most African countries, and of the continent as a whole, is growing rapidly and could double itself in under 25 years. Second, mortality among mothers and children is very high. Third, life expectancy generally is lower in African than in other developing countries. Fourth, urbanization is sufficiently rapid to put more than half of Africa in cities by 2020 and 1/3 of the urban population in giant cities of over 4 million people. The 1984 conference recognized these and other uncomfortable facts and their implications for the future, and agreed that attention to population was an essential part of African development strategy. Strategy is considered in terms of the 4 issues mentioned. First, high rates of growth are not in themselves a problem, but they mean a very high proportion of dependent children in the population. About 45% of Africa's population is under age 14 and will remain at this level until the early years of the 21st century. Meeting the needs of so many children and young adults taxes the ability of every African nation, regardless of how rapidly its economy may expand. Understanding this, a growing number of African leaders call for slower growth in order to achieve a balance in the future between population and the resources available for development. Reducing mortality requires innovation. Among the new approaches to health care are the use of traditional medicine and practitioners in conjunction with modern science and the mobilization of community groups for preventive care and self-help. Health care and better nutrition also are keys to improvement in life expectancy and call for ingenuity and innovation on the part of African governments and communities. Part of the solution to the impending urban crisis must be attention to the viability of the rural sector. The role of the UN Fund for Population Activities in addressing the identified issues is reviewed.
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  13. 13
    038254

    The state of world population 1986.

    Salas RM

    POPULI. 1986; 13(1):5-14.

    Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of developing countries will shift as a result of rapid world urbanization. In 1970 the total urban population of the more developed world regions was almost 30 million more than in the less developed regions; however, by the year 2000 the urban population of developing countries will be close to double that in developed countries. A growing proportion of the urban population will be concentrated in the biggest cities. At the same time, the rural population in developing countries is expected to increase as well, making it difficult to reduce the flow of migrants to urban centers. Although urban fertility in developing countries tends to be lower than rural fertility, it is still at least twice as high as in developed countries. The benefits of urbanization tend to be distributed unevenly on the basis of social class, resulting in a pattern of skewed income and standard of living. Social conditions in squatter settlments and urban slums are a threat to physical and mental health, and the educational system has not been able to keep up with the growth of the school-aged population in urban areas. The problems posed by urbanization should be viewed as challenges to social structures and scientific technologies to adapt with concern for human values. It is suggested than 4 premises about the urbanization process should guide urban planners: 1) urban life is essential to the social nature of the modern world; 2) urban and rural populations should not be conceptualized in terms of diametrically opposed interest groups; 3) national policies will have an impact on urban areas, just as developments in the cities will impact on national development; and 4) the great cities of the world interact with each other, exchanging both trade and populations. The United Nations Family Planning Association stresses the need for 3 fundamental objectives: economic efficiency, social equity, and population balance.
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  14. 14
    033848

    Population change and development in the ECWA region

    Caldwell P; Caldwell JC

    In: Aspects of population change and development in some African and Asian countries. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1984. 43-56. (CDC Research Monograph Series no. 9)

    This paper examines the relationship between economic development and demographic change in the 13 states of the Economic Commission for West Asia (ECWA) region. Demographic variables considered include per capita income, proportion urban, proportion in urban areas with over 100,000 inhabitants, literacy among those over 15 years, and literacy among women. Unweighted rankings on these variables were added to produce a development ranking or general development index. Then this index was used to investigate the relationship between development and individual scores and rankings for various demographic indices. The development index exhibited a rough fit with the mortality indices, especially life expectancy at birth. Mortality decline appears to be most closely related to rise in income. At the same income level, countries that have experienced substantial social change tend to exhibit the lowest mortality, presumably because of a loosening in family role patterns. In contrast, the relationship between development and fertility measures seemed to be almost random. A far closer correlation was noted between the former and the general development index. It is concluded that economic development alone will not reduce fertility. Needed are 2 changes: 1) profound social change in the family and in women's status, achievable through increases in female education, and 2) government family planning programs to ensure access to contraception.
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  15. 15
    031753

    [World population and development: an important change in perspective] Population mondiale et developpement: un important changement de perspective.

    Vallin J

    Problemes Economiques. 1984 Oct 24; (1895):26-32.

    The International Population Conference in Mexico City was much less controversial than the World Population Conference in Bucharest 10 years previously, in part because the message of Bucharest was widely accepted and in part because of changes that occurred in the demographic and economic situations in the succeeding decade. The UN medium population projection for 1985 has been proved quite accurate; it is not as alarming as the high projection but still represents a doubling of world population in less than 40 years. The control of fertility upon which the medium projection was predicated is well underway. The movement from high to low rates of fertility and mortality began in the 18th century in the industrial countries and lasted about 1 1/2 centuries during which the population surplus was dispersed throughout the world, especially in North and South America. The 2nd phase of movement from high to low rates currently underway in the developing countries has produced a far greater population increase. The proportion of the population in the developed areas of Europe, North America, the USSR, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand will decline from about 1/3 of the 2.5 billion world population of 1950 to 1/4 of the 3.7 billion of 1985, to 1/5 of the 4.8 billion of 2000, and probably 1/7 of the 10 billion when world population stabilizes at the end of the next century. The growth rates of developing countries are not homogeneous; the populations of China and India have roughly doubled in the past 35 years while that of Latin America has multiplied by 2 1/2. The population of Africa more than doubled in 35 years and will almost triple by 2025. The number of countries with over 50 million inhabitants, 9 in 1950, will increase from 19 in 1985 to 32 in 2025. The process of urbanization is almost complete in the industrialized countries, with about 75% of the population urban in 1985, but urban populations will continue to grow rapidly in the developing countries as rural migration is added to natural increase. The number of cities with 10 million inhabitants has increased from 2 to 13 between 1950 and 1985, and is expected to reach 25 by 2000, with Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai the world's largest cities. The peak rate of world population growth was reached in the 1960s, with annual increases of 2.4%. In 1980-85 in the developed and developing worlds respectively the rates of population growth were .7% and 2.0%/year; total fertility rates were 2.05 and 4.2, and the life expectancies at birth were 72.4 and 57.0. Considerable variations occurred in individual countries. Annual rates of growth in 1980-85 were 2.4% in Latin America, 3.0% in Africa, 2.2% in South Asia and 1.2% in East Asia. Today only Iran among high fertility countries pursues a pronatalist policy. Since Bucharest, it has become evident to developing and developed countries alike that population control and economic development must go hand in hand.
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  16. 16
    031005

    A survey of population in the ESCAP region.

    Asian and Pacific Population Programme News. 1985 Mar; 14(1):2-5.

    In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.
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  17. 17
    027804

    Country statement: Ethiopia.

    [Unpublished] 1984. Presented at the Second African Population Conference, Arusha, Tanzania, January 9-13, 1984. 21 p.

    This discussion of Ethiopia focuses on: sources of demographic data; population size and age-sex distribution; urbanization; fertility; marital status of the population; mortality and health; rate of natural increase; economic activity and labor force activity rates; food production; education; population policies and programs; and population in development planning. As of 1983, Ethiopia's population was estimated at 33.7 million. Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy. Ethiopia has not yet conducted a population census, however, the 1st population and housing census is planned for 1984. The population is young with children under 15 years of age constituting 45.4% of the total population; 3.5% of the population are aged 65 years and older. The degree of urbanization is very low while the urban growth rate is very high. Most of the country is rural with only 15% of the population living in localities of 2000 or more inhabitants. In 1980-81 the crude birthrate was 46.9/1000. The total fertility rate was 6.9. Of those aged 15 years and older, 69.2% of males and 71.3% of females are married. According to the 1980-81 Demographic Survey the estimates of the levels of mortality were a crude death rate of 18.4/1000 and an infant mortality rate of 144/1000. At this time 45% of the population have access to health services. It is anticipated that 80% of the population will be covered by health care services in 10 years time. Ethiopia is increasing at a very rapid rate of natural increase; the 1980 estimation was 2.9% per annum. Despite the rich endowments in agricultural potential, Ethiopia is not self-sufficient in food production and reamins a net importer of grain. Enrollment at various levels of education is expanding rapidly. There is no official population policy. Financial assistance received from the UN Fund for Population Activities and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund for population programs is shown.
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  18. 18
    203195

    [Examination and evaluation of the World Population Plan of Action. An analysis of population growth in Latin America] Examen y evaluacion del Plan de Accion Mundial sobre Poblacion. Analisis de crecimiento demografico en America Latina

    Lima Otero J; Garcia Quinones R

    Havana, Cuba, Universidad de la Habana, Facultad de Economia, Centro de Estudios Demograficos [CEDEM], 1984. 49 p. (Publicaciones de CEDEM: Coleccion Investigaciones no. 63)

    Socioeconomic and demographic changes that have occurred in Latin America since the 1974 World Population Conference are reviewed using data from published U.N. sources. Factors affecting Latin American population growth and urbanization and determinants of Cuban population growth since 1970 are considered. (ANNOTATION)
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  19. 19
    026165

    Reflections on population.

    Salas RM

    New York, Pergamon, 1984. 240 p.

    This book, a sequel to "International Population Assistance: The First Decade," characterizes the work of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) with the developing countries up to 1984, relating these experiences to the issues before the 1984 International Conference on Population. The 1st chapter provides an overview of the significant developments in population up to the 1984 International Conference on Population. The next 7 chapters discuss the following main issues before the Conference and generally reflect the arrangement of the document to be brought before the Conference concerning recommendations for further implementation of the World Population Plan of Action: fertility, status of women and the family; morbidity and mortality; population distribution, internal and international migration; population growth and structure; promotion of knowledge and implementation of policies and programs; international cooperation and the role of UNFPA; and the year 2000 and beyond. Within each of these chapters, excerpts have been arranged in an analytic order, with the aim of facilitating the flow of arguments presented. Appendices contain the 5 "State of World Population Reports" issued from 1980-84 and 7 Rafael M. Salas statements which, primarily due to their focus on the population issues of particular importance to the major regions of the globe, are reproduced in their entirety. This volume reflects the process of population policymaking of the UNFPA with the developing countries in support of their population programs in the past 15 years. These policies were sanctioned and validated, both nationally by the countries themselves and globally by UN deliberative bodies and conferences. The experience of UNFPA in policy formulation indicates that an effective population policy must have its proper time perspective and must be scientifically determined in its component elements, normative and applicable at different levels, multisectoral in its emphasis, and measurable in its impact and consequenes.
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  20. 20
    026268

    Concise report on the world population situation in 1983: conditions, trends, prospects, policies.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)

    The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
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  21. 21
    024921

    Some problems in the making of population projections.

    Tabah L

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 15-6. (Population Studies No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    As the UN demographic estimates and projections cover all the developed and developing countries, special problems are encountered in data collection and evaluations. The responsibility for the UN projections rests primarily with the Population Division, but the results are the product of collaboration by all responsible offices within the UN system. This is 1 of the strengths of the UN population projections, yet there are numerous problems concerning those projections. Aside from the perpetual difficulties with collection and estimation of basic demographic indicators from incomplete data, all of which must be continuously undertaken, there are 8 major problems which have become more important in recent years and concern the current UN demographic projections. The 1st problem is the question of meeting the needs of the users who are the researchers, the planners, and the policymakers. The 2nd problem is that significant improvement can be made in the methodologies with, on the 1 hand, the prodigious advances in calculation devices and research techniques and on the other, a better knowledge of the economic and social context of demographic variables. The 3rd major problem in the component method of projections of fertility, which continues to be the most influential component to the future population of most nations. Another component of projection, mortality, has become a pressing issue in the field of projection as well. Knowledge of mortality in the third world is highly fragmentary. The 5th problematic issue is urbanization and city growth. There are severe problems with data comparability and projection methods. Sixth, for several developing and developed countries international migration plays a significant role in their population growth. More problematic than estimating the current net numbers of migrants is formulating assumptions about future patterns of international migration. Seventh, thus far demographic projections have largely been based on the demographic theory of transition, which appears to continue to be useful for developing countries. Yet, the demographic transition models are affected by a wider variety of trajectories than anticipated. Finally, no one has been able to explain clearly the major simultaneous movements of fertility of the developed countries. The question of obvious policy significance is what will happen in the future.
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  22. 22
    023698

    Thailand: report of Second Mission on Needs Assessment for Population Assistance.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, May 1983. 74 p. (Report No. 55)

    Reports on the need for population assistance in Thailand. Areas are identified which require assistance to achieve self-reliance in formulating and implementing population programs. Thailand has had a family planning program since 1970 and UNFPA has been assisting population projects and programs in Thailand since 1971. A Basic Needs Assessment Mission visited the country in April 1981. Thailand is experiencing a rapid decline in the population growth rate and mortality rates have been declining for several decades. The Mission makes recommendations for population assistance and identifies priority areas for assistance, such as population policy formation; data collection; demographic research; health and family planning; population information, education, and communication; and women and development. The Mission recommends that all population efforts be centralized in a single agency with no other function. Thailand is also in need of more personnel in key agencies dealing with population matters. The Mission also recommends that external aid be sought for technical assistance and that population projections be revised based on the 1980 census. Thailand has made a great deal of progress in developing its health infrastructure and services, but some problems still remain, especially in areas of staff recruitment and deployment and in providing rural services. The Mission also recommends that external assistance be continued for short term training seminars and workshops abroad for professionals. Seminars should be organized to assist officials in understanding the importance of population factors in their areas.
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  23. 23
    267153

    The creative role of non-governmental organizations in the population field, statement made at the International Consultation of Non-Governmental Organizations on Population Issues, Geneva, Switzerland, 13 September 1983.

    Salas RM

    New York, N.Y., UNFPA, [1983]. 6 p. (Speech Series No. 96)

    Since the UNFPA became operational in 1969, it has worked with and funded more non-governmental organization (NGO) programs than any other agency in the UN system for a comparable period of time. 10-15% of UNFPA's annual budget is used to assist national and international population activities in family planning, information, education, training and communications programs, research studies and surveys. It was the pioneering efforts of NGO's which eventually led to the development of global awareness of population problems and later governmental programs were patterned on the extensive research and studies on population issues conducted by NGO's. In the past 10 years there have been a number of important demographic changes which will continue and which will cause problems in the future. These include the enormous increase in the number of older people; the rapid urbanization in developing countries; rural and small city migration to urban areas; and the international migration of workers. More attention needs to be paid to the positive implications of population growth. It is hoped that NGO's will actively participate in the coming World Population Conference.
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