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  1. 1
    037960

    [Population and development in the Republic of Zaire: policies and programs] Population et developpement en Republique du Zaire: politiques et programmes.

    Zaire. Departement du Plan. Direction des Etudes Macroeconomiques

    [Unpublished] 1986. Presented at the All-Africa Parliamentary Conference on Population and Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 12-16, 1986. 9 p.

    The 1st census of Zaire, in July 1984, indicated that the population of 30 million was growing at a rate of at least 2.3%/year. The crude birth rate was estimated at 46/1000 and was believed to be higher in urban areas than in rural because of better health and educational conditions. The crude death rate was estimated at 16/1000 and the infant mortality rate at 106/1000. 46.5% of the population is under 15. The population is projected to reach 34.5 million in 1990, with urban areas growing more rapidly than rural. Zaire is at the stage of demographic transition where the gap between fertility and mortality is very wide. The consequences for national development include massive migration and rural exodus, unemployment and underemployment, illness, low educational levels, rapid urbanization, and increasing poverty. In the past decade, Zaire has undertaken a number of activities intended to improve living conditions, but as yet there is no explicit official policy integrating population and development objectives. In 1983, the Executive Council of Zaire organized a mission to identify basic needs of the population, with the assistance of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). In 1985, the UNFPA developed a 5-year development plan. The UNFPA activities include demographic data collection, demographic policy and research, maternal-child health and family planning, population education, and women and development. In the area of data collection, the 1st census undertaken with UNFPA help has increased the availability of timely and reliable demographic data. The vital registration system is to be improved and a permanent population register to be developed to provide data on population movement. A National Population Committee is soon to be established to assist the Executive Council in defining a coherent population policy in harmony with the economic, social, and cultural conditions of Zaire. Demographic research will be conducted by the Demographic Department of the University of Kinshasa and the National Institute of Statistics. A primary health care policy has been defined to increase health coverage to 60% from the current level of 20%. Zaire has favored family planning services integrated with the primary health care system since 1979. At present 2 components of the Desirable Births" program are underway, the Desirable Births Service Project undertaken in 1983 and the Rural Health Project undertaken in 1982, both executed by the Department of Public Health with financing provided by US Agency for International Development. The RAPID (Resources for the Analysis of the Impact of Population on Development) program has been used since 1985 to inform politicians, technicians, and planners. Efforts have been underway since 1965 to include women in the development process, and a new family code is being studied which would give better protection to some rights of women and children.
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  2. 2
    073418

    Educating girls and women: investing in development.

    King EM

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1990. [2], 17 p.

    This brochure summarizes selected chapters from a forthcoming publication of a World Bank study on women's education in developing countries. The poorest benefit, and for girls and women, the benefits are many. Failure to raise the education levels of women has hugh consequences for increasing productivity and income and improving quality of life. Development has been affected both by the level of schooling of women and the gender gap. New approaches are being explored; policymakers must find and appropriate combination of actions to change families' opinions of and the economics of female education. Adult literacy is low in many developing countries; of the 14 out of 40 countries with data, only 1 in 5 adult females can read. Gross enrollment has increased from 45% in 1965 to 70% in 1985; only 41% of total primary school enrollment was girls in 1985. There are great regional differences. The gender gap is dramatic in South Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa, e.g., in Bhutan girls school enrollment was 19% compared with 34% for boys in 1985, and in Pakistan 38% of girls vs 73% of boys. Differences were not as marked in Latin America and all East Asian countries. Dropout rates for girls are also higher than boys. Middle-income countries have experienced the greatest progress. The benefits of educating women are discussed in terms of the link with social and economic development. Families investment in girls education is low because the private returns are not large enough to balance the costs. Sons receive preference in many countries. Approaches to attracting more girls to schools are discussed: building schools is not enough; demand for girls education must occur. New ways of engaging rural students are being tried. Culturally appropriate facilities also boost enrollment. The best method is training and placing teachers close to home. Financial incentives and lower opportunity costs attract more girls to school. National media campaigns to raise awareness are effective. Limited resources and rapid population growth demand a realignment of priorities.
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  3. 3
    080031

    China. Long-term issues and options in the health transition.

    Bumgarner JR

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1992. xxvii, 133 p. (World Bank Country Study)

    In the early 1990s, the World Bank sent a team of specialists in demography, medicine, hospital administration, health policy, personnel, medical technology, and finance to China to examine the present health status of the population and to protect its future status. Before making any projections, however, they had to learn what demographic and epidemiologic factors would basically determine future health status. The main factors driving China's health transition included aging of the population; increased risk of developing chronic disease caused by changes in life style, dietary, environmental, and occupational risk factors; and changing morbidity and mortality patterns (i.e., shift from infectious to disabling and chronic diseases). The team mapped out specific strategies, which can indeed be achieved, to avert a health care crisis. The strategies revolved around a sustained effort of primary prevention of chronic diseases, especially circulatory diseases, which caused considerable premature mortality. The team illustrated how different formulas of total health expenditures would affect epidemiologic outcomes. The team learned that health care costs would probably increase due to unavoidable demographic trends (especially demographic aging), epidemiologic forces, and utilization and unit cost changes. Suggested primary prevention strategies alone would not be enough to control health expenditures to a level where feasible equity can be maintained. China must also greatly improve efficiency of hospital services, personnel, and technologies. The evaluation team concluded that the government needs to reassess policies for financing primary and preventive health services, the basis and conditions of insurance, and the role of prices and incentives in directing use and provision of services.
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  4. 4
    055066

    Mauritius.

    Jugnauth A

    In: Population perspectives. Statements by world leaders. Second edition, [compiled by] United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]. New York, New York, UNFPA, 1985. 106-7.

    As a result of malaria eradication, general progress in medical science, and free government health services, Mauritius's population grew dramatically in the postwar decades. In addition to this alarming trend in population growth, Mauritius also faced a high population density ratio and a mono-culture economy based on sugar. Initial attempts to offer institutionalized family planning services met with opposition from some religious groups. By 1965, however, the climate was more favorable and the Government moved to provide subsidies to 2 private voluntary organizations that offered family planning services. In the 1965-72 period, the Government of Mauritius took a more aggressive role in population activities by significantly increasing the number of family planning service delivery points and expanding the infrastructure for population control. As a result of these measures, the total fertility rate dropped to 3.42 in 1972 compared with 5.86 in 1962. In the 1972-82 period, even further gains were made and the fertility rate fell to 2.39. Continuous declines have also been recorded in the infant mortality rate, which now (1983) stands at 26/1000 live births. Nonetheless, there is a need to continue to curb population growth to ensure the availability of natural resources. Through measures such as family planning, health, education, communication, and information programs, the Government population policy seeks to lower the gross reproduction rate from 1.18 in 1982 to 1.12 by 1987. Multisector, integrated development is being stressed given recognition that nondemographic factors such as education, better housing, welfare services, policies to modernize agriculture, and economic diversification are essential to improvements in the population's standard of living.
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  5. 5
    047042

    An examination of the population structure of Liberia within the framework of the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City Recommendations on Population and Development: policy implications and mechanism.

    Howard J

    In: The 1984 International Conference on Population: the Liberian experience, [compiled by] Liberia. Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs. Monrovia, Liberia, Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs, [1986]. 111-36.

    The age and sex composition and distribution of the population of Liberia as affected by fertility, mortality, morbidity, migration, and development are examined within the framework of the Kilimanjaro Program of Action and recommendations of the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City. The data used are projections (1984-85) published in the 2nd Socio-Economic Development Plan, 1980. The population of Liberia is increasing at the rate of 3.5% and will double in 23.1 years. 60% of the population is under 20 and 2% over 75. Projected life expectancy is 55.5 years for women and 53.4 years for men. The population is characterized by high age dependency; 47.1% of the people are under 15 and 2.9% are over 64, so that half of the population consists of dependent age groups, primarily the school-age children (6-11 years). If these children are to enter the labor force, it is estimated that 19,500 jobs will have to be created to employ them. Moreover, fertility remains at its constant high level (3.5%), so, as mortality declines, the economic problem becomes acute. Furthermore, high fertility is accompanied by high infant and maternal mortality. High infant mortality causes couples in rural areas to have more children. These interdependent circumstances point up the need for family planning, more adequate health care delivery systems, and increasing the number of schools to eradicate illiteracy, which is currently at 80%. Integrated planning and development strategies and appropriate allotment of funds must become part of the government's policy if the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City recommendations are to be implemented.
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  6. 6
    043126

    Madagascar: population and family health assessment, May 13-31, 1985.

    Ferguson-Bisson D; LeComte J; Kennedy B

    [Unpublished] 1985. 78 p.

    A Population/Family Health Assessment was conducted in the Democratic Republic of Madagascar (GDRN) to review population and family planning activities and to make general recommendations for improvement, including the type of US Agency for International Development (USAID) population assistance that should be provided. Despite the fact that Madagascar's population of approximately 9 million is growing at a rate of 2.8% annually, meaning the population will double in less than 25 years, there is no official population policy. Yet, it is significant that the reduction of maternal and infant mortality and morbidity has been identified as an explicit goal in the health sector, and the country's actions long have reflected an attitude of acceptance and support of family planning. The private family planning association is recognized as a nongovernmental organization, which provides clinical and contraceptive services throughout Madagascar. The public health system offers no family planning services. Although the French law of 1920 forbidding the sale and use of contraceptives has not been rescinded, it is not enforced. The private family planning association now provides contraceptive services in 40 Ministry of Health facilities at the request of public health physicians, and the government has approved the participation of 35 medical and paramedical personnel in training courses as well as the installation of laparoscopic equipment in 8 medical facilities. Several other organizations provide child spacing services. Despite the efforts being made, the availability of contraceptive services remains limited, and contraceptive prevalence was estimated at 1% of women aged 15-49 in 1982. Several obstacles impede accessibility to contraceptive services and expansion of family planning programs, including a culture which favors large families, the strong influence of the Catholic Church, and a limited number of medical centers providing family planning services. Further, communication between the Office of Population and the Ministry of Health has not been the most favorable for the development of effective programs either area, but the recent naming of a physician to the position of Director of Population may facilitate closer collaboration. The recommendations made outline a general strategy for the initiation of population activities in the shortterm.
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  7. 7
    039142

    Basis for the definition of the organization's action policy with respect to population matters.

    Pan American Health Organization [PAHO]

    [Unpublished] 1984 May 8. 31 p. (CE 92/12)

    This report shows how demographic information can be analyzed and used to identify and characterize the groups assigned priority in the Regional Plan of Action and that it is necessary for the improvement of the planning and allocation of health resources so that national health plans can be adapted to encompass the entire population. In discussing the connections between health and population characteristics in the countries of the region, the report covers mortality, fertility and health, and fertility and population increase; spatial distribution and migration; and the structure of the population. Focus then moves on to health, development, and population policies and family planning. The final section of the report considers the response of the health sector to population trends and characteristics and to development-related factors. The operations of the health sector must be revised in keeping with the observed demographic situation and the projections thereof so that the goal of health for all by the year 2000 may be realized. In several countries of the region mortality remains high. In 1/3 of them, infant mortality during the period 1980-85 exceeds 60/1000 live births. If measures are not taken to reduce mortality 55% of the population of Latin America in the year 2000 will still be living in countries with life expectancies at birth of under 70 years. According to the projections, in the year 2000 the birthrate will stand at around 29/1000, with wide differences between the countries of the region, within each of them, and between socioeconomic strata. High fertility will remain a factor hostile to the health of women and children and a determinant of rapid population growth. Some governments view the present or predicted growth rates as excessive; others want to increase them; and some take no explicit position on the matter. The countries would be well advised to assign values to their birthrate, natural increase, and periods for doubling their populations in relation to their development plans and to the prospects for improving the standard of living and health of their populations. An important factor in urban growth is internal migration. These migrants, like some of those who move to other countries, may have health problems requiring special care. Regardless of a country's demographic situation, the health sector has certain responsibilities, including: the need to promote the framing and adoption of population and development policies, in whose implementation the importance of health measures is not open to question; and the need to favor the intersector coordination and articulation required to ensure that population aspects are considered in national development planning.
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  8. 8
    038368

    [Rural-rural migration: the case of the colonies] Migracion rural-rural el caso de las colonias.

    Blanes J; Calderon F; Dandler J; Prudencio J; Lanza L

    In: Tras nuevas raices: migraciones internas y colonizacion en Bolivia [by] Carlos Garcia-Tornell, Maria Elena Querejazu, Jose Blanes, Fernando Calderon, Jorge Dandler, Julio Prudencio, Luis Lanza, Giovanni Carnibella, Gloria Ardaya, Gonzalo Flores [and] Alberto Rivera. La Paz, Bolivia, Ministerio de Planeamiento y Coordinacion, Direccion de Planeamiento Social, Proyecto de Politicas de Poblacion, 1984 Apr. 51-251.

    A study of colonization programs in Bolivia was conducted as part of a larger evaluation of population policy. The 1st of 8 chapters examines the history of colonization programs in Bolivia and the role of state and international development agencies. It sketches the disintegration of the peasant economy, and presents 5 variables that appear to be central to colonization processes: the directedness or spontaneity of the colonization, the distance to urban centers and markets, the diversification of production, the length of time settled, and the origin of the migrants. The 2nd chapter describes the study methodology. The major objective was to evaluate government policies and plans in terms of the realistic possibilities of settlement in colonies for peasants expelled from areas of traditional agriculture. Interviews and the existing literature were the major sources used to identify the basic features and problems of colonization programs. 140 structured interviews were held with colonists in the Chapare zone, 43 in Yapacari, and 51 in San Julian. The 3 zones were selected because of their diversity, but the sample was not statistically representative and the findings were essentially qualitative. The 3rd chapter examines the relationships between the place of origin and the stages of settlement. The chapter emphasizes the influence of place of origin and other factors on the processes of differentiation, proletarianization, and pauperization. The 4th chapter examines the productive process, profitability of farming, the market, and reproductive diversification. The next chapter analyzes the technology and the market system of the colonists, the dynamics of the unequal exchange system in which they operate, and aspects related to ecological equilibrium and environmental conservation. The 6th chapter concentrates on family relationships and the role played by the family in colonization. Some features of the population structure of the colonies are described. The 7th chapter assesses forms of organization, mechanisms of social legitimation, and the important role of peasant syndicates. The final chapter summarizes the principal trends encountered in each of the themes analyzed and makes some recommendations concerning the colonization program, especially in reference to the family economy and labor organizations.
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  9. 9
    042218

    Global population policy database, 1987.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. vi, 201 p. (Population Policy Paper No. 9; ST/ESA/SER.R/71)

    The purpose of the Global Review and Inventory of Population Policy, 1987 data base, which is described in this document, is to provide current data on the population policies of 170 countries drawn from the Population Policy Data Bank of the Population Division of the UN. The policy topics covered include: population growth; mortality; fertility; internal migration, immigration; emigration; and the integration of population variables into the development planning process. The diskette contains information on selected demographic indicators, including current and projected population size, current levels of fertility and mortality, current population growth rates, and proportions foreign born, as well as data on population policy. The 1st chapter provides a profile of the population policy perceptions of 170 countries in February 1987, as coded by the UN Population Division. The 2nd chapter contains 22 tables showing the frequencies of particular codes on various population policy variables. Annex 1 contains a summary description of the variables included on the diskette. Annex II gives a more detailed description of each variable and the meaning of the codes. Annex III provides diskette order forms which may be used for requesting copies of the database.
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  10. 10
    045404

    World population policies, volume 1: Afghanistan to France.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. vi, 247 p. (Population Studies, No. 102; ST/ESA/SER.A/102)

    WORLD POPULATION POLICIES presents, in 3 volumes, current information on the population policies of the 170 members states of the UN and non-member states. This set of reports in based on the continuous monitoring of population policies by the Population Division of the Department of International Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat. It replaces POPULATION POLICY BRIEFS: CURRENT SITUATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, POPULATION POLICY BRIEFS: CURRENT SITUATION IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, and POPULATION POLICY COMPENDIUM. Except where noted, the demographic estimates and projections cited in this report are based on the 10th round of global demographic assessments undertaken by the Population Division. Country reports are grouped alphabetically; Volume I contains Afghanistan to France. Each country's entry includes demographic indicators detailing population size, a structure, and growth; mortality and morbidity; fertility, nuptiality, and family; international migration; and spatial distribution and urbanization. Current perceptions of these demographic indicators are included, along with the country's general policy framework, institutional framework, and policies and measures. A brief glossary of terms and list of countries replying to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th inquiries are appended.
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  11. 11
    037952

    Speech.

    Sadik N

    [Unpublished] 1986. Presented at the All-Africa Parliamentary Conference on Population and Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 12-16, 1986. 7 p.

    The Second African Conference on Population and Development, held early in 1984, marked a decisive stage in African thinking about population. During the 12 years between the 1972 and 1984 conferences, African nations learned in detail about their demographic situation and confronted the ever-increasing costs of development and their lack of physical and administrative infrastructure. In the midst of these and other concerns came the drought, which for over a decade in some parts of the continent has reduced rainfall, dried up rivers, lakes, and wells, and forced millions into flight. It is in this context that population became an African issue. African countries on the whole are not densely populated nor do they yet have very large concentrations in cities. Yet, population emerges as more than a matter of numbers, and there are features which give governments cause for concern. First, the population of most African countries, and of the continent as a whole, is growing rapidly and could double itself in under 25 years. Second, mortality among mothers and children is very high. Third, life expectancy generally is lower in African than in other developing countries. Fourth, urbanization is sufficiently rapid to put more than half of Africa in cities by 2020 and 1/3 of the urban population in giant cities of over 4 million people. The 1984 conference recognized these and other uncomfortable facts and their implications for the future, and agreed that attention to population was an essential part of African development strategy. Strategy is considered in terms of the 4 issues mentioned. First, high rates of growth are not in themselves a problem, but they mean a very high proportion of dependent children in the population. About 45% of Africa's population is under age 14 and will remain at this level until the early years of the 21st century. Meeting the needs of so many children and young adults taxes the ability of every African nation, regardless of how rapidly its economy may expand. Understanding this, a growing number of African leaders call for slower growth in order to achieve a balance in the future between population and the resources available for development. Reducing mortality requires innovation. Among the new approaches to health care are the use of traditional medicine and practitioners in conjunction with modern science and the mobilization of community groups for preventive care and self-help. Health care and better nutrition also are keys to improvement in life expectancy and call for ingenuity and innovation on the part of African governments and communities. Part of the solution to the impending urban crisis must be attention to the viability of the rural sector. The role of the UN Fund for Population Activities in addressing the identified issues is reviewed.
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  12. 12
    034572

    China: long-term development issues and options. The report of a mission sent to China by the World Bank.

    Lim E; Wood A; Porter I; Taylor RP; Byrd W; Tidrick G; King T; Tims W; Pohl G

    Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985. xiii, 183 p. (World Bank Country Economic Report)

    This report summarizes the conclusions of a World Bank study undertaken in 1984 to identify the key development issues China is expected to face in the next 20 years. Among the areas addressed by chapters in this monograph are agricultural prospects, energy development, spatial issues, international economic strategy, managing industrial technology, human development, mobilizing financial resources, and development management. China's economic prospects are viewed as dependinding upon success in mobilizing and effectively using all available resources, especially people. This in turn will depend on sucess in reforming the system of economic management, including progress in 3 areas: 1) greater use of market regulation to stimulate innovation and efficiency; 2) stronger planning, combining indirect with direct economic control; and 3) modification and extension of social institutions and policies to maintain the fairness in distribution that is basic to socialism in the face of the greater inequality and instability that may result from market regulation and indirect controls. Over the next 2 decades, China can be expected to become a middle-income country. The government has set the goal of quadrupling the gross value of industrial and agricultural output between 1980 and 2000 and increasing per capita income from US$300 to $800. China's size and past emphasis on local self-sufficiency offer opportunities for enormous economic gains through increased specialization and trade among localities. Increased rural-urban migration seems probable and desirable, although an increase in urban services and infrastructure will be required. The expected slow rate of population increase is an important foundation for China's favorable economic growth prospects. On the other hand, it may not be desirable to hold fertility below the replacement level for very long, given the effects this would have on the population's age structure. The increase in the proportion of elderly people will be a serious social issue in the next century, and reforms of the social security system need to be considered.
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  13. 13
    038254

    The state of world population 1986.

    Salas RM

    POPULI. 1986; 13(1):5-14.

    Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of developing countries will shift as a result of rapid world urbanization. In 1970 the total urban population of the more developed world regions was almost 30 million more than in the less developed regions; however, by the year 2000 the urban population of developing countries will be close to double that in developed countries. A growing proportion of the urban population will be concentrated in the biggest cities. At the same time, the rural population in developing countries is expected to increase as well, making it difficult to reduce the flow of migrants to urban centers. Although urban fertility in developing countries tends to be lower than rural fertility, it is still at least twice as high as in developed countries. The benefits of urbanization tend to be distributed unevenly on the basis of social class, resulting in a pattern of skewed income and standard of living. Social conditions in squatter settlments and urban slums are a threat to physical and mental health, and the educational system has not been able to keep up with the growth of the school-aged population in urban areas. The problems posed by urbanization should be viewed as challenges to social structures and scientific technologies to adapt with concern for human values. It is suggested than 4 premises about the urbanization process should guide urban planners: 1) urban life is essential to the social nature of the modern world; 2) urban and rural populations should not be conceptualized in terms of diametrically opposed interest groups; 3) national policies will have an impact on urban areas, just as developments in the cities will impact on national development; and 4) the great cities of the world interact with each other, exchanging both trade and populations. The United Nations Family Planning Association stresses the need for 3 fundamental objectives: economic efficiency, social equity, and population balance.
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  14. 14
    038633

    Population growth and policies in sub-Saharan Africa.

    World Bank

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1986 Aug. x, 102 p.

    This report provides a comprehensive assessment of the magnitude and underlying causes of Africa's rapid population growth and suggests a framework to help African leaders design policies to address this problem. The report has 3 themes. The 1st theme is that rapid population growth in Africa is slowing economic development and reducing the possibility of raising living standards. Africa's population growth rate, the highest in the world, has accelerated from an average of 2.8%/year in 1970-82 to 3.1%/year in 1985. Population growth is expected to continue to rise for at least another 5-10 years. In addition to undermining economic growth and per capita income growth, the population explosion implies higher child and maternal morbidity and mortality, further degradation of the natural environment, constraints on expanding education and health care services, and falling wages. A comprehensive population policy in African countries must include efforts both to slow this growth and to cope with its consequences. A 2nd theme is one of cautious hope arising from recent indications of a change in ideas and behavior regarding fertility. More and more African governments are expressing alarm about population growth and are supporting family planning measures. Improvements in women's status, especially in female education, are occurring and can be expected to have a fertility reducing effect. Increased availability and accessibility of family planning services could raise Africa's contraceptive prevalence rate from its current level of 3-4% to 25% in the next decade. The 3rd theme is that strategic reorientation of the direction and nature of government involvement in the area of population policy is required. Although governments should not seek to be the only provider of family planning services, they must take the lead in generating a climate of legitimacy for family planning. An increase in external assistance will be necessary if family planning is to become a realistic option for Africans.
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  15. 15
    035059

    The application of economic-demographic models to development planning.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Population Division

    Population Research Leads. 1985; (19):1-15.

    The Population Division's evaluation of the role of population factors in the planning process through the application of economic-demographic models shows that procedures for considering the short and long-term implications of population growth can be significantly improved. The Division's research projects demonstrate that models can help planners to achieve an efficient allocation of scarce resources, set clear-cut national objectives and provide a national sense of political and social purpose. There are many advantages in applying economic-demographic models to development planning in order to integrate population factors within the development process, yet care must be taken in adopting and/or applying a certain model at the national level. Aside from the question of adopting a model, the question of the applicability and application of models is emphasized. The choice of model structure is discussed in terms of 4 major issues: 1) the choice of a central core; 2) the trade-off between simplicity and complexity and the appropriate degree of endogeneity; 3) the choice of a demand or supply orientation; and 4) the criteria for selecting a particular model for use. A representative selection of economic demographic models is presented. Included are the TEMPO (designed to illustrate the benefits of reduced fertility) and Long-Range Planning Models (LAPM--designed to illustrate the implications of policy assumptions for economic development, particularly in regard to health and education), both developed by the US government. Also described are the BACHUE and the UN Fund for Populations Activities (UNFPA)/ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) models. It is argued that these latter models offer the greatest promise as tools for planning in the ESCAP Region, at the present time. As the BACHUE model is primarily concerned with employment and the distribution of income and the UNFPA/FAO model with agriculture, incorporating both into the planning process could be desirable.
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  16. 16
    032605

    [Ivory Coast: report of the Mission on Needs Assessment for Population Assistance] Cote d'Ivoire: rapport de Mission sur l'Evaluation des Besoins d'Aide en Matiere de Population.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, 1984 Sep. viii, 57 p. (Report No. 69)

    Conclusions and recommendations are presented of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) Mission which visited the Ivory Coast from February 20-March 15, 1983 to assess population assistance needs. Ivory Coast officials believe that the population, estimated at 8,034,000 in 1980, is insufficient given the country's economic needs. Its very rapid rate of growth is estimated at over 4.5%/year, of which 1.5% is due to foreign immigration. 42% of the population is urban. The country has undergone exceptional economic growth in the past 2 decades, and the per capita income is now estimated at over $US1000 annually. Social development does not seem to have kept pace, however, and the mortality rate of 15.4/1000 is that of a country with only 1/2 the per capital income. The 1981-85 Ivory Coast Plan proposes a change from a growth economy to a society in which individual and collective welfare is the supreme goal. Up to date data on the size, structure, and dynamics of the population will be needed to aid in preparation of the 1986-90 and 1991-95 plans. A 2nd national population census is planned for 1985. Until the present, rapid population growth had been considered a boon, but problems are arising of massive rural exodus, high rates of urban unemployment coupled with manpower shortages in agriculture, and growing demographic pressure on health, educational, and social infrastructures, especially in the cities. The government has maintained its pronatalist stance, and government health programs have been directed only to mortality and maternal and child health. The need to control fertility and to use birth spacing as a tool to combat maternal and infant mortality is being increasingly felt, and a private family welfare association was able to form in 1979. A policy of maternal and child health encouraging spacing to improve family welfare would probably be welcomed in the Ivory Coast. The Mission recommended that a population policy be formulated which would correspond to the national demographic reality and development objectives. Basic demographic data collection should focus on the 1985 general census, which should have high priority. The civil registration system should be reorganized. A planned migration survey should cover the whole year to take into acconnt seasonal variations, but preparations should not begin until the census is completed. A multiple objective survey could be undertaken in 1988 to determine the nature and scope of interrelationships between demographic variables and economic and sociocultural variables, and a survey of infant mortality on a small sample could be done in 1989. The planned manpower and employment survey should be completed. Population research should receive high government priority. In regard to maternal and child health, the government should take an official position on the problem of birth spacing as a means of combatting maternal and infant deaths. IEC activities should be expanded, and efforts should be made to encourage the participation of women in development.
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  17. 17
    031753

    [World population and development: an important change in perspective] Population mondiale et developpement: un important changement de perspective.

    Vallin J

    Problemes Economiques. 1984 Oct 24; (1895):26-32.

    The International Population Conference in Mexico City was much less controversial than the World Population Conference in Bucharest 10 years previously, in part because the message of Bucharest was widely accepted and in part because of changes that occurred in the demographic and economic situations in the succeeding decade. The UN medium population projection for 1985 has been proved quite accurate; it is not as alarming as the high projection but still represents a doubling of world population in less than 40 years. The control of fertility upon which the medium projection was predicated is well underway. The movement from high to low rates of fertility and mortality began in the 18th century in the industrial countries and lasted about 1 1/2 centuries during which the population surplus was dispersed throughout the world, especially in North and South America. The 2nd phase of movement from high to low rates currently underway in the developing countries has produced a far greater population increase. The proportion of the population in the developed areas of Europe, North America, the USSR, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand will decline from about 1/3 of the 2.5 billion world population of 1950 to 1/4 of the 3.7 billion of 1985, to 1/5 of the 4.8 billion of 2000, and probably 1/7 of the 10 billion when world population stabilizes at the end of the next century. The growth rates of developing countries are not homogeneous; the populations of China and India have roughly doubled in the past 35 years while that of Latin America has multiplied by 2 1/2. The population of Africa more than doubled in 35 years and will almost triple by 2025. The number of countries with over 50 million inhabitants, 9 in 1950, will increase from 19 in 1985 to 32 in 2025. The process of urbanization is almost complete in the industrialized countries, with about 75% of the population urban in 1985, but urban populations will continue to grow rapidly in the developing countries as rural migration is added to natural increase. The number of cities with 10 million inhabitants has increased from 2 to 13 between 1950 and 1985, and is expected to reach 25 by 2000, with Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai the world's largest cities. The peak rate of world population growth was reached in the 1960s, with annual increases of 2.4%. In 1980-85 in the developed and developing worlds respectively the rates of population growth were .7% and 2.0%/year; total fertility rates were 2.05 and 4.2, and the life expectancies at birth were 72.4 and 57.0. Considerable variations occurred in individual countries. Annual rates of growth in 1980-85 were 2.4% in Latin America, 3.0% in Africa, 2.2% in South Asia and 1.2% in East Asia. Today only Iran among high fertility countries pursues a pronatalist policy. Since Bucharest, it has become evident to developing and developed countries alike that population control and economic development must go hand in hand.
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  18. 18
    031701

    Statement by the honourable Minister of Development and Economic Planning and leader of the Republic of Sierra Leone's delegation, Dr. S.H. Kanu at the International Conference on Population, Mexico, 6-13th August 1984.

    Kanu SH

    Popleone. 1985 Jan; 1(2):1-3.

    This article reprints the statement made by Dr SH Kanu, Sierra Leone's Minister of Development and Economic Planning, at the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City in 1984. It is noted that the implications of continued rapid population growth for food production, health, education, and employment have become increasingly clear. This awareness has been intensified by the current economic crisis. Population growth thwarts the expansion of basic necessities and social services. In Sierra Leone, the population is growing 1.2 percentage points faster than the economy each year. The Government is collaborating with voluntary agencies to enact programs that will 1) reduce the current high levels of infant, child, and maternal mortality; and 2) stimulate economic growth so it outstrips population growth. A National Population Commission, composed of representatives from all strata of society, has been formed to advise the government on the most effective ways to achieve a national population growth that is sustainable by the economy. Also needed is a rational global population policy that will remedy the widening gap between developed and developing countries and present inequities in the distribution of the world's natural and financial resources. The present low levels of aid given to African countries reflects the lack of appreciation of the magnitude and urgency of needs in developing countries. The Government of Sierra Leone endorses the call by developing countries for a New International Economic Order to ameliorte the world's socioeconomic problems, including population growth.
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  19. 19
    030796

    Burma: report of Mission on Needs Assessment for Population Assistance.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, UNFPA, 1985 Mar. viii, 68 p. (Report No. 70)

    The UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) is in the process of an extensive programming exercise intended to respond to the needs for population assistance in a priority group of developing countries. This report presents the findings of the Mission that visited Burma from May 9-25, 1984. The report includes dat a highlights; a summary and recommendations for population assistance; the national setting; population policies and population and development planning; data collection, analysis, and demographic training and research;maternal and child health, including child spacing; population education in the in-school and out-of school sectors; women, population, and development; and external assistance -- multilateral assistance, bilateral assistance, and assistance from nongovernmental organizations. In Burma overpopulation is not a concern. Population activities are directed, rather, toward the improvement of health standards. The main thrust of government efforts is to reduce infant mortality and morbidity, promote child spacing, improve medical services in rural areas, and generally raise standards of public health. In drafting its recommendations, whether referring to current programs and activities or to new areas of concern, the Mission was guided by the government's policies and objectives in the field of population. Recommendations include: senior planning officials should visit population and development planning offices in other countries to observe program organization and implementation; continued support should be given to ensure the successful completion of the tabulation and analysis of the 1983 Population Census; the People's Health Plan II (1982-86) should be strengthened through the training of health personnel at all levels, in in-school, in-service, and out-of-country programs; and the need exists to establish a program of orientation to train administrators, trainers/educators, and key field staff of the Department of Health and the Department of Cooperatives in various aspects of population communication work.
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  20. 20
    030137

    Socio-economic development and fertility decline in Costa Rica. Background paper prepared for the project on socio-economic development and fertility decline.

    Denton C; Acuna O; Gomez M; Fernandez M; Raabe C; Bogan M

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1985. 118 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/55)

    This summary of information on the development process in Costa Rica and its relation to fertility from 1950-70 is a revision of a study prepared for the Workshop on Socioeconomic Development and Fertility Decline held in Costa Rica in April 1982 as part of a UN comparative study of 5 developing countries. The report contains chapters on background information on fertility and the family, historical facts, and political organization of Costa Rica; the development strategy and its consequences vis a vis the composition of the gross domestic product, balance of trade, investment trends, the structure of the labor force, educational levels, and income; the allocation of public resources in public employment, public investment, credit, public expenditures, and the impact of resource allocation policies; changes in land tenure patterns; cultural factors affecting fertility, including education, women and their family roles, behavior in the home, women and politics, work and social security, and race and religion; changes in demographic variables, including nuptiality patterns, marital fertility, and natural fertility and birth control; characteristics and determining factors of the decline in fertility, including levels and trends, decline by age group, decline in terms of birth order, differences among population groups, how fertility declined, and history and role of family planning programs; and a discussion of the modernization process in Costa Rica and the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic variables. Beginning with the 1948 civil war, Costa Rica underwent drastic changes which were still reflected in national life as late as 1970. The industrial sector and the government bureaucracy have become decisive forces in development and the government has become the major employer. The state plays a key role in economic life, and state participation is a determining factor in extending medical and educational resources in the social field. The economically active population declined from 64% in 1960 to 55% in 1975 due to urbanization and migration from rural to urban areas, but there was an increase in economic participation of women, especially in urban areas. Increased educational level of the population in general and women in particular created changes in traditional attitudes and behavior. Although there is no specific explanation of why Costa Rica's fertility decline occurred, some observations about its determining factors and mechanisms can be made: the considerable economic development of the 1950s and 1960s brought about a rapid rise in per capita income and changes in the structure of production as well as substantial social development, increased opportunities for self-improvement for some social groups, and a rise in expectations. The size of the family became an aspect of conflict between rising expectations and increasing expenses. The National Family Planning Program helped accelerate the fertility decline.
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  21. 21
    030014

    Long-term effects of global population growth on the international system.

    Demeny P

    In: Population, resources, environment and development. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development, Geneva, 25-29 April 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 125-43. (Population Studies No. 90; ST/ESA/SER.A/90; International Conference on Population, 1984)

    4 overlapping and interrelated concerns appear to influence, if unevenly and in varying combinations, the approaches towards international population phenomena embodied in national policies. The concerns have to do with shifts in relative demographic size within the family of nations, international economic and political stability, humanitarian and welfare considerations, and narrowing options with regard to longterm social development. Each of these concerns is a reflection of measurable or perceived consequences of the extraordinarily rapid growth of the world population during the 20th century and in particular of the marked acceleration of that growth since the end of World War 2. None of these concerns has been adequately articulated, either in the academic literature or in international and national forums in which population policies are considered. International action in the population field has become a subset of international development assistance. Among the motivating concerns, humanitarian and welfare considerations have received the most attention. Considerations of economic and political stability also have been often invoked. In contrast, shifts in relative demographic size and the narrowing options with respect to longterm social development have been seldom discussed. Yet, examination of the record of policy discussions of the last few decades confirms that the influence of these factors has been potent. The dramatic increase of the world population is possibly the single most spectacular event of modern history. During the last 100 years global numbers have tripled, and net population growth between 1900 and 2000 will most likely be of the order of 4.5 billion. Concern with the deleterious consequences of rapid population growth on domestic economic development and, by extension on the health of the world economy is a major factor in explaining international interest in population matters. Concern with poverty is another motivating force for international action involving unilateral resource transfers between nations. The potential role of 2 types of population policies -- relating to international migration and to mortality -- would seem to be narrowly circumscribed. The prospects for useful action in the matter of fertility are more promising.
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  22. 22
    026165

    Reflections on population.

    Salas RM

    New York, Pergamon, 1984. 240 p.

    This book, a sequel to "International Population Assistance: The First Decade," characterizes the work of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) with the developing countries up to 1984, relating these experiences to the issues before the 1984 International Conference on Population. The 1st chapter provides an overview of the significant developments in population up to the 1984 International Conference on Population. The next 7 chapters discuss the following main issues before the Conference and generally reflect the arrangement of the document to be brought before the Conference concerning recommendations for further implementation of the World Population Plan of Action: fertility, status of women and the family; morbidity and mortality; population distribution, internal and international migration; population growth and structure; promotion of knowledge and implementation of policies and programs; international cooperation and the role of UNFPA; and the year 2000 and beyond. Within each of these chapters, excerpts have been arranged in an analytic order, with the aim of facilitating the flow of arguments presented. Appendices contain the 5 "State of World Population Reports" issued from 1980-84 and 7 Rafael M. Salas statements which, primarily due to their focus on the population issues of particular importance to the major regions of the globe, are reproduced in their entirety. This volume reflects the process of population policymaking of the UNFPA with the developing countries in support of their population programs in the past 15 years. These policies were sanctioned and validated, both nationally by the countries themselves and globally by UN deliberative bodies and conferences. The experience of UNFPA in policy formulation indicates that an effective population policy must have its proper time perspective and must be scientifically determined in its component elements, normative and applicable at different levels, multisectoral in its emphasis, and measurable in its impact and consequenes.
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  23. 23
    027467

    Adoption of the Report of the Conference: report of the Main Committee.

    Concepcion MB

    [Unpublished] 1984 Aug 13. 40 p. (E/CONF.76/L.3; M-84-718)

    This report of the International Conference on Population, held in Mexico City during August 1984, includes: recommendations for action (socioeconomic development and population, the role and status of women, development of population policies, population goals and policies, and promotion of knowledge and policy) and for implementation (role of national governments; role of international cooperation; and monitoring, review, and appraisal). While many of the recommendations are addressed to governments, other efforts or initiatives are encouraged, i.e., those of international organizations, nongovernmental organizations, private institutions or organizations, or families and individuals where their efforts can make an effective contribution to overall population or development goals on the basis of strict respect for sovereignty and national legislation in force. The recommendations reflect the importance attached to an integrated approach toward population and development, both in national policies and at the international level. In view of the slow progress made since 1974 in the achievement of equality for women, the broadening of the role and the improvement of the status of women remain important goals that should be pursued as ends in themselves. The ability of women to control their own fertility forms an important basis for the enjoyment of other rights; likewise, the assurance of socioeconomic opportunities on a equal basis with men and the provision of the necessary services and facilities enable women to take greater responsibility for their reproductive lives. Governments are urged to adopt population policies and social and economic development policies that are mutually reinforcing. Countries which consider that their population growth rates hinder the attainment of national goals are invited to consider pursuing relevant demographic policies, within the framework of socioeconomic development. In planning for economic and social development, governments should give appropriate consideration to shifts in family and household structures and their implications for requirements in different policy fields. The international community should play an important role in the further implementation of the World Population Plan of Action. Organs, organizations, and bodies of the UN system and donor countries which play an important role in supporting population programs, as well as other international, regional, and subregional organizations, are urged to assist governments at their request in implementing the reccomendations.
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  24. 24
    026268

    Concise report on the world population situation in 1983: conditions, trends, prospects, policies.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)

    The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
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  25. 25
    026826

    Country statement--Liberia.

    [Unpublished] [1984]. Presented at the Second African Population Conference, Arusha, Tanzania, January 9-13, 1984. 3 p.

    Liberia's population characteristics and dynamics are briefly decribed, the current status of population data collection is noted, and the government's population policies and programs are summarized. National censuses were conducted in 1962 and 1974 with assistance from the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), and a 3rd census is planned for February 1984. National population growth surveys were conducted in 1969 and 1972, and demographic growth surveys were undertaken in 1978 and 1979. An administrative structure for registering births and deaths was recently created, however, most births occurring outside of hospitals and clinics will not be covered. In 1973, a demographic unit was established at the University of Liberia to develop the manpower needed to upgrade population data collection procedures. According to data collected in the 1974 censuses and subsequent surveys, the birthrate is 48.6, the death rate is 17.3, and the gross reproductive rate is 3.2. the total fertility rate is 6.7, and the infant mortality rate is 110.4. Life expectancy at birth is 49.1 for males and 52.5 for females. there are 97.3 males/100 females. The proprotion of the male population under 15 years of age is 47.9%, and the respective proportion for females is 46.9%. The total population is 1.8 million. Although Liberia does not have a population policy, the government recently established a National Population Committee to formulate a national policy and to coordinate population acitivities. 3.5% of Liberia's women of childbearing age currently use family planning services provided either by the International Planned Parenthood Federation or by the government with the assistance of UNFPA and the US Agency for International Development.
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