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National report on population. Prepared for the International Conference on Population and Development, September 1994.
[Tunis], Tunisia, Ministry of Planning and Regional Development, 1994 Aug. 57 p.Tunisia's country report for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development opens with a brief discussion of the country's history and development achievements (the population growth rate has been reduced from 3.2% in the beginning of the 1960s to less than 2%, and Tunisia has achieved significant improvement over the past 2 decades in human development indices). Tunisia's population policy has gone through 3 stages: the establishment of an important legal framework during the 1950s and 60s, the creation of a National Family and Population Board and establishment of basic health care facilities during the 1970s, and an emphasis on environmentally-responsible development with an attempt to strengthen the integration of population policies into development strategies beginning in the 1980s. The report continues with an overview of the demographic context (historical trends and future prospects). The chapter on population policies and programs covers the evolution and status of the policies; sectoral strategies; development and research; a profile of the family health, family planning (FP), IEC (information, education, and communication), and data collection and analysis programs. This chapter also provides details on policies and programs which link women and families to population and development and on those which concern mortality, population distribution, and migration. The third major section of the report presents operational features of the implementation of population and FP programs, in particular, political support, program formulation and execution, supervision and evaluation, financing, and the importance and relevance of the world plan of action for population. Tunisia's national action plan for the future is discussed next in terms of new problems and priorities and a mobilization of resources. This section also includes a table which sets out the components, goals, strategies, and programs of action of the population policy. In conclusion, it is stated that Tunisia's population policy fits well with the world program of action because it promotes human resources and sustainable development and respects international recommendations about human rights in general and the rights of women in particular.
Government of Sierra Leone. National report on population and development. International Conference on Population and Development 1994.
Freetown, Sierra Leone, National Population Commission, 1994. , 15,  p.The government of Sierra Leone is very concerned about the poor health status of the country as expressed by the indicators of a high maternal mortality rate (700/100,000), a total fertility rate of 6.2 (in 1985), a crude birth rate of 47/1000 (in 1985), an infant mortality rate of 143/1000 (in 1990), and a life expectancy at birth of only 45.7 years. A civil war has exacerbated the already massive rural-urban migration in the country. Despite severe financial constraints, the government has contributed to the UN Population Fund and continues to appeal to the donor community for technical and financial help to support the economy in general and population programs in particular. Sierra Leone has participated in preparations for and fully supports the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development. This document describes Sierra Leone's past, present, and future population and development linkages. The demographic context is presented in terms of size and growth rate; age and sex composition; fertility; mortality; and population distribution, migration, and urbanization. The population policy planning and program framework is set out through discussions of the national perception of population issues, the national population policy, population in development planning, and a profile of the national population program [including maternal-child health and family planning (FP) services; information, education, and communication; data collection, analysis, and research; primary health care, population and the environment; youth and adolescents and development; women and development; and population distribution and migration]. The operational aspects of the program are described with emphasis on political and national support, FP service delivery and coverage, monitoring and evaluation, and funding. The action plan for the future includes priority concerns; an outline of the policy framework; the design of population program activities; program coordination, monitoring, and evaluation; and resource mobilization. The government's commitment is reiterated in a summary and in 13 recommendations of action to strengthen the population program, address environmental issues, improve the status of women, improve rural living conditions, and improve data collection.
[Population and development in the Republic of Zaire: policies and programs] Population et developpement en Republique du Zaire: politiques et programmes.
[Unpublished] 1986. Presented at the All-Africa Parliamentary Conference on Population and Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 12-16, 1986. 9 p.The 1st census of Zaire, in July 1984, indicated that the population of 30 million was growing at a rate of at least 2.3%/year. The crude birth rate was estimated at 46/1000 and was believed to be higher in urban areas than in rural because of better health and educational conditions. The crude death rate was estimated at 16/1000 and the infant mortality rate at 106/1000. 46.5% of the population is under 15. The population is projected to reach 34.5 million in 1990, with urban areas growing more rapidly than rural. Zaire is at the stage of demographic transition where the gap between fertility and mortality is very wide. The consequences for national development include massive migration and rural exodus, unemployment and underemployment, illness, low educational levels, rapid urbanization, and increasing poverty. In the past decade, Zaire has undertaken a number of activities intended to improve living conditions, but as yet there is no explicit official policy integrating population and development objectives. In 1983, the Executive Council of Zaire organized a mission to identify basic needs of the population, with the assistance of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). In 1985, the UNFPA developed a 5-year development plan. The UNFPA activities include demographic data collection, demographic policy and research, maternal-child health and family planning, population education, and women and development. In the area of data collection, the 1st census undertaken with UNFPA help has increased the availability of timely and reliable demographic data. The vital registration system is to be improved and a permanent population register to be developed to provide data on population movement. A National Population Committee is soon to be established to assist the Executive Council in defining a coherent population policy in harmony with the economic, social, and cultural conditions of Zaire. Demographic research will be conducted by the Demographic Department of the University of Kinshasa and the National Institute of Statistics. A primary health care policy has been defined to increase health coverage to 60% from the current level of 20%. Zaire has favored family planning services integrated with the primary health care system since 1979. At present 2 components of the Desirable Births" program are underway, the Desirable Births Service Project undertaken in 1983 and the Rural Health Project undertaken in 1982, both executed by the Department of Public Health with financing provided by US Agency for International Development. The RAPID (Resources for the Analysis of the Impact of Population on Development) program has been used since 1985 to inform politicians, technicians, and planners. Efforts have been underway since 1965 to include women in the development process, and a new family code is being studied which would give better protection to some rights of women and children.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 4-6. (Population Studies No. 83 ST/ESA/SER.A/83)These recommendations refer specifically to the work of the Population Division of the UN and the regional commissions and more generally to the work of the specialized agenices, which prepare projections of labor force and school enroolment. The current recommendations may be regarded as updating an earlier detailed set that was issued by a similar group of experts who convened in New York in November 1977. The recommendations cover general considerations, sources and assumptions, evaluation of projections and their uses, and internal migration and urbanization. The Population Division should consider the question of an optimal time schedule for publishing new estimates and projections in order to avoid unduly long intervals between publications and intervals so short as to cause confusion. The UN Secretariat has an important role in pursuing work on methodology of projections and making it available to demographers in the developing countries. Unique problems of demographic projection exist for those countries with particularly small populations. It is proposed that the Population Division prepare special tabulations, whenever possible, giving the estimated age and sex distribution for these countries. Future publications of population projections prepared by the Population Division should indicate the major data sources on which the projections are based and note if the data were adjusted before inclusion. In addition, some grading of the quality of the base data should be presented. For the UN set of national and international population projections, a more comprehensive system of establishing assumptions about the future trends of fertility is needed. The Secretariat needs to focus more attention on the evaluation of its population projections. UN publications of projections should report on the main errors in recent past projections with respect to estimates of baseline levels and trends and provide some evaluation of the quality of the current estimates. It is recommended that the UN encourage countries to establish a standard definition of urban which would be used for international comparisons but generally not replace current national definitions. The Secretariat should review the techniques currently used to project urban-rural and city populations and search for methodologies appropriate to the level of urbanization and the quality of data which would improve the accuracy of the projections. The Division should regularly produce long range population projections for the world and major countries and should continue and expand its household estimates and projection series, which provides information essential to government administrators and planning agencies, businesses, and researchers in all countries.
New Delhi, India, Department of Family Welfare, 1994. , 61 p.The country report prepared by India for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development opens by noting that India's population has increased from 361.1 million in 1951 to 846.3 million in 1991. In describing the demographic context of this, the largest democracy in the world, information is given on the growth rate, the sex ratio, the age structure, marital status, demographic transition, internal migration, urbanization, the economically active population and the industrial structure, literacy and education, data collection and analysis, and the outlook for the future. The second section of the report discusses India's population policy, planning, and programmatic framework. Topics covered include the national perception of population issues, the evolution of the population policy, the national family welfare program (infrastructure and services; maternal and child health; information, education, and communication; and achievements), the relationship of women to population and development, the relationship of population issues and sectoral activities, the environment, adolescents and youth, and AIDS. The third section presents operational aspects of family welfare program implementation and covers political and national support, the implementation strategy, the new action plan, program achievements and constraints, monitoring and evaluation, and financial aspects. The national action plan for the future is the topic of the fourth chapter and is discussed in terms of emerging and priority concerns, the role and relevance of the World Population Plan of Action and other international instruments, international migration, science and technology, and economic stabilization, structural reforms, and international financial support. After a 24-point summary, demographic information is appended in 17 tables and charts.
[Unpublished] 1989 Nov. 88 p. (A/E/BD/4/Sec. I)International population assistance defines the population aspects of development as the causes, conditions and consequences of changes in fertility, mortality and mobility as they affect developmental prospects and human welfare. Key elements in the policy-making process in the field of population are research, dissemination, policy formulation, policy planning, policy implementation and evaluation, policy analysis and data collection. The challenge is identifying where and how the population policy process needs are to be strengthened or modified to fit future needs. Political and substantive factors are the main causes for the lack of population policies in many developing countries; population assistance can begin to contribute to economic development by reaching the poorest classes of society; more focus has to be put on the interrelationship between gender roles and demographic behavior; more research is needed on the costs versus benefits of changing mortality, fertility and migration among the poor or will the focus remain on urban dwellers; more research and policy analysis are needed on the consequences of migration; there is the need for greater focus on integrating population with development and establishing appropriate institutional arrangements; data collection, tabulation and analysis will need to become more gender-specific and aimed at special target groups such as women, youth and the elderly. Data will need to be disaggregated for population subgroups and then integrated between different social and economic sectors. The availability of integrated statistics will be fundamental in the formulation and evaluation of programs for these special groups. When the policy development process is based on scientific data, research and analysis, there must be strong political commitment, institutional support, budgetary provision and a willingness to use the findings on an on-going basis.
RENKOU YANJIU / POPULATION RESEARCH. 1987 Sep; (5):43-8.The question of how to measure the influence of family planning in fertility has been addressed by numerous international scholars. Highlighted briefly here are some of the methods endorsed by United Nations publications and recognized by scholars of various countries: 1) Standardization; 2) John Bongaarts model; 3) Trend analysis; 4) Wishik model; 5) Converse model of Dorothy Nartman; 6) Potter model; 7) Nathan Keyfitz model; 8) "Plural model"; 9) Model analysis.
State of population research and research needs as expressed at the international conference on population and its preparatory meetings.
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1987; (21-22):1-16.One of the ways in which demography advances is by reappraising the problems with which it deals and, in that connection, international conferences play a major role. The International Conference on Population (1984) and the 4 expert group meetings organized for its substantive preparation gave Governments an opportunity to convey to the scientific community the issues in the field of population research which were of major concern to them. This article is organized around 3 main themes. The 1st concerns current needs in population research as perceived by governments, and the extent to which currently available knowledge is considered adequate. The 2nd concerns current needs in population research as perceived by Governments, as described in the 1st part of the article. The 3rd concerns priority. With limited human and financial resources, particularly in the present world economic situation, on what basis should it be decided what population research projects to pursue? Issues include: Socio-Economic Development, Environment, and Population; Role and Status of Women; Development of Population Policies; Morbidity and Mortality; Reproduction and the Family; Population Distribution and Internal Migration; and International Migration. Topics considered under each of these headings are: Accumulation of empirical knowledge; Reappraisal of the problem; Theoretical framework; and Concerns of the international community. Cooperation is more necessary today than ever before, for demography can offer much more to users than it could 10 years ago. At the same time, the profession is aware that an in-depth discussion on priorities is necessary all around, for the priorities are not always clearly discernable. The profession is also aware that the major users--i.e., the representatives of 3rd-world countries--must be more closely involved in the process of collective thinking with, for instance, the representatives of major foundations and international institutions.
Voorburg, Netherlands, Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute, 1985 Sep. ix, 56 p. (Working Paper of the N.I.D.I. No. 63)The objective of this report is to introduce the available techniques of life history analysis to study the data collected by the national migration surveys and to demonstrate the relevance of such techniques to provide more insight into to the problems addressed by the ESCAP migration and urbanization project. The 2nd section of the report introduces the basic concepts, with special reference to migration, and contains a simple example. Section 3 deals with 3 further issues which may arise while modeling migration histories: the alternative definitions of the state-space; the definition of the time dependence; and heterogeneity considerations and ways of dealing with heterogeneity for discrete state stochastic models of migration. The 4th section focuses on some major problems which may arise while estimating stochastic models of migration histories with ESCAP migration his. 2 issues are emphasized in this section: problems with the measurement of the timing of the events and issues related to using the information on the covariates of migration. Continous time stochastic models provide a powerful means of modeling event sequences. Migration histories consist of information on the times and the characteristics of migration experienced by individuals. More conventional ways of modeling such data are the dummy variables regression, the logit regression, or aggregation of the data are to form contingency tables and application of the log-linear models. Continous time event history models easily be generalized to incorporate complex designs of the state space, which express the moves between residences, and to provide detailed and cross nationally comparable information on the patterns of time dependence. Additionally, they are based on the estimation techniques which do not require unrealistic assumptions. These models aim at identifying a dynamic process that underlies the observed data. Estimated parameters of these models provide a description of the time dependence and also provide quantitative information about the effects of exogenous variables on the phenomenon of interest. The dependent variable of the continous time event history models is usually the instantaneous transition rate which is not directly observable. The estimated coefficients of the exogenous variables may be interpreted the same as the coefficients of a regression model, except that they usually have a multiplicative relation with the dependent variable. Once models of fundamental parameters of the underlying process are designed and estimated, many implications of such a process may be derived.
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1986; (19-20):115-24.The United Nations (UN) and the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) have cooperated since the 1940s. In 1927 an International Population Conference in Geveva established a permanent Population Union to cooperate with the population activities of the League of Nations. The 2 institutions' successors, IUSSP and the United Nations (UN), developed close and productive linkages, collaborating to create a Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, published in English, French, Russian, and Spanish and in many other languages. Meanwhile the Union, at the request of UNESCO, prepared a pioneering study attempting to define the cultural factors affecting developing country fertility in the context of the demographic transition, In 1966 the Union and the UN collaborated to develop criteria for internationally comparable studies in fertility and family planning (FP). The resulting monograph served as a reference for many fertility studies, including the World Fertility Survey. Another study on the impact of FP programs on fertility, resulted in the organization of expert meetings and the production of a manual and monographs on FP program evaluation. There was futher cooperation in a study on mortality, internal migration and international migration, resulting in manuals on methods of analysing internal migration and indirect measures of emigration, among other things. The 1954 Wold Population Conference (WPC) and the 1965 UN WPC were organized by the UN collaborating with the Union, and the Union administered the funds used to bring developing country delegates to the Conference. Subsequent WPCs at Bucharest and Mexico City were political in nature, bu the Union contributed to both a report outlining demographic research needs. The Union also assisted the UN in organizing a series of regional population conferences, and its Committee on Demographic Instruction prepared a report for UNESCO on teaching demography, and cooperated with the Secretariat in funding the UN Regional Demographic Training Centers at Bombay and Santiago.
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1986; (19-20):125-8.The Committee for International Co-operation in National Research in Demography (CICRED) was formed in 1972 as a result of an initiative taken by the Director of the Population Division of the United Nations Secretariat, and currently holds consultative status with the Economic and Social Council Among its accomplishments are the organization of seminars on demographic research in relation to population growth targets and on infant mortality in relation to the level of fertility, and demographic research in relation to internal migration. CICRED was also instrumental in gaining the co-operation of national research institutions in a project resulting in the publication of 56 national monographs. In cooperation with the population Division, CICRED prepared and published 2 editions of a population multilingual thesaurus. This collaboration also led to the creation of the Population Information Network (POPIN). In 1977 CICRED launched the Inter-center Co-operative research Program. The various elements of the program are in different stages of completion. In particular, they involve cooperation with the Population Division in the areas of intergration of demographic variables into planning, aging and differential mortality. (author's modified)
[Recommendations of the Population World Plan of Action and of the United Nations Expert Group on Population Distribution, Migration and Development] Recomendaciones del Plan de Accion Mundial sobre Poblacion y del Grupo de Expertos de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo.
In: Reunion Nacional sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo, Guadalajara, Jalisco, 11 de mayo de 1984, [compiled by] Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]. Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 21-31.Highlights are presented of the expert meeting on population distribution, migration, and development held in Hammamet, Tunisia, in March 1983 to prepare for the 1984 World Population Conference. Rafael Salas, Secretary General of the World Population Conference, indicated in the inaugural address of the meeting that changes in the past 10 years including the increasing importance of short-term movements, illegal migrations, and refugees would require international agreements for their resolution. In the area of internal migrations, Salas suggested that in addition to migration to metropolitan areas which continues to predominate, short-term movements of various kinds need to be considered in policy. Improvement in the quality of life of the urban poor is an urgent need. Leon Tabah, Adjunct Secretary General of the World Population Conference, pointed out that population distribution and migration had received insufficient attention in the 1975 World Population Conference, and that the World Population Plan of Action should be modified accordingly. Among the most important findings of the meeting were: 1) The Plan of Action overstressed the negative effects of urbanization and rural migration. Available evidence suggests that migration and urbanization are effects rather than causes of a larger process of unequal regional and sectorial development 2) The historical context of each country should be considered in research and planning regarding population movements. 3) Analyses of the determinants and consequences of migration were reexamined in light of their relationship to the processes of employment, capital accumulation, land tenure, technological change, ethnic and educational aspects, and family dynamics. 4) The need to consider interrelationships between urban rural areas in formulation of policy affecting population distribution was emphasized. 5) National development strategies and macroeconomic and sectoral policies usually have stronger spatial effects than measures specifically designed to influence population distribution, and should be examined to ensure compatability of goals. 6) Population distribution policies should not be viewed as ends in themselves but as measures to achieve larger goals such as reducing socioeconomic inequalities. 7) Multiple levels of analysis should be utilized for understanding the causes and consequences of population movements. 8) Programs of assistance should be organized for migrants and their families. 9) The human and labor rights of migrants and nonmigrants should be considered in policy formulation. 10) Policies designed to improve living and working conditions of women are urgently needed.
JOURNAL OF POPULATION STUDIES. 1986 Jun; (9):193-212.Population studies have been well developed in many countries of the world, but not so in Taiwan. Many academic people and general citizens in the Taiwan area are still not very familiar with the significance of population research within and outside of the nation. The purpose of this paper is to help readers understand the importance and development situation and trend of the field of population studies, so that they can be motivated to carry out population research and can become more knowledgeable of institutions and organizations both in Taiwan and abroad. Important concepts of the development and trend of population studies presented in this paper are developed by the author after many years of population study. Most sources used in this paper are secondary, and appear in various population references and documents of population organizations. The paper includes 3 main parts: the importance of population studies, the development of population studies in Taiwan, and international population research and sponsoring organizations and agencies. In the 1st part, the important need for population studies has been comprehensively discussed. In the 2nd part, discussions are extended to 3 subjects government's role on data collection and data analysis, teaching and research developments in acdemic institutions, and the role of private organizations in the promotion and application of population studies. In the 3rd part, more than 70 international institutions and agencies of population studies have been introduced and examined. Partticular attention has been paid to characteristics and functions of 3 organizations: UN Population Divisions, IUSSP, and CICRED. In addition, many other international public and private agencies in different countries have been listed and their locations mentioned. In this paper, discussion has not focused on the development of population in the US. It is because the development status in the US is unusually important and requires a separate, special report. The author has made such a report on population studies in the US a decade ago, and it will not be repeated here. (author's modified) (summary in ENG)
[National Conference on Fertility and Family, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oaxaca, April 13, 1984] Reunion Nacional sobre Fecundidad y Familia, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oax., a 13 de abril de 1984.
Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 228 p.Proceedings of a national conferences on the family and fertility held in April 1984 as part of Mexico's preparation for the August 1984 World Population Conference are presented. 2 opening addresses outline the background and objectives of the conference, while the 1st paper details recommendations of a 1983 meeting on fertility and the family held in New Delhi. The main body of the report presents 2 conference papers and commentary. The 1st paper, on fertility, contraception, and family planning, discusses fertility policies; levels and trends of fertility in Mexico from 1900 to 1970 and since 1970; socioeconomic and geographic fertility differentials; the relationship of mortality and fertility; contraception and the role of intermediate variables; the history and achievements of family planning activities of the private and public sectors in Mexico; and the relationship between contraception, fertility, and family planning. The 2nd paper, on the family as a sociodemographic unit and subject of population policies, discusses the World Population Plan of Action and current sociodemographic policies in Mexico; the family as a sociodemographic unit, including the implications of formal demography for the study of family phenomena, the dynamic sociodemographic composition of the family unit, and the family as a mediating unit for internal and external social actions; and steps in development of a possible population policy in which families would be considered an active part, including ideologic views of the family as a passive object of policy and possible mobilization strategies for families in population policies. The conference as a whole concluded by reaffirming the guiding principles of Mexico's population policy, including the right of couples to decide the number and spacing of their children, the fundamental objective of the population policy of elevating the socioeconomic and cultural level of the population, the view of population policy as an essential element of development policy, and the right of women to full participation. Greater efforts were believed to be necessary in such priority areas as integration of family planning programs with development planning and population policy, creation of methodologies for the analysis of families in their social contexts, development and application of contraceptive methodologies, promotion of male participation in family planning, coordination of federal and state family planning programs, and creation of sociodemographic information systems to ensure availability of more complete date on families in specific population sectors. The principles of the World Population Plan of Action were also reaffirmed.
[Papers presented at the First Study Director's Meeting on Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationship for Selected ESCAP Countries, 29 October-2 November 1984, Bangkok, Thailand]
[Unpublished, 1984].  p.This study group report 1) investigates quantitatively the process of population change and socioeconomic development to identify policy recommendations for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand and 2) examines the application of the "systems approach" and econometric technics for population and development planning. These country-specific studies will help to clarify the interrelationships between demographic and socioeconomic factors in the development process of each participating country and the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region in general. The meeting 1) reviewed major demographic and economic issues in each participating country, 2) reviewed extant work on model building in each country, and 3) outlined a preliminary system design. Several economic-demographic models are discussed. The participants recommended that 1) the models focus of similar issues such as migration and income distribution and 2) countries should adopt, whenever possible, a similar modeling methodology. Participants agreed that models should be based, where possible, on a base-year Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). This poses no problems in Thailand or Malaysia as SAMs are already available for these countries. However, no SAM is currently available for the Philippines. Participants further recommended that the 3 models could be improved by greater collaboration among study directors during model formulation and estimation. Participants also expressed concern about the size of the computing budget and thought that models could be improved by an increased budget for computer time.
In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 39-57, 326-7. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)A comparative study on mortality trends of developing countries was conducted by making use of UN projections of mortality measures. These mortality measures projected by the UN were used to observe future prospects of general mortality trends in selected countries. Under several research projects of the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), some attempts were made to analyze recent trends of cause-specific mortality covering several selected countries. Estimates of future changes in cause-specific mortality may be considered useful to supply basic information needed for social and economic development planning of a country. Trends of mortality changes in the 1950s and 1960s were characterized in many countries by a rapid decline. Such a declining trend of mortality was brought about initially by a successful control of infectious and parasitic diseases accompanied by improvements in living conditions of the people in general. Thus the mortality of less developed countries that had been affected to a greater extent directly by infectious and parasitic diseases could be improved more drastically at such a stage. After the 1970s the pace of decline in mortality slowed down gradually to a considerable extent all over the world but was more prominent among more developed countries. In most countries mentioned in this discussion, regardless of whether they are more or less developed, the crude death rate is expected to reach the lowest level within a few decades. In many instances of developing countries, the crude death rate is assumed to reach such a minimum level in and around 2000. After reaching the lowest level, the crude death rate will turn to increase in varying degrees. Such a rise in crude death rate does not imply deterioration of mortality conditions. The crude death rate is often affected by the sex-age composition of the population. In contrast to the crude death rate, in most countries selected here, the expectation of life at birth is expected to expand steadily towards the future during the whole duration of this projection. An analytical observation was made on the cause-specific mortality for 10 selected countries covering the period from 1970 to the latest year for which basic data were available on the 8th (1965) revision of International Statistical Classification. Future prospects of cause structure of deaths will be very much influenced by proccesses effected by policy making and planning, and projections of cause-specific mortality should be made with an aim toward providing useful information for policy making and planning for national development.
In: Mortality and health policy. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Mortality and Health Policy, Rome, 30 May to 3 June 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 289-303. (International Conference on Population, 1984; ST/ESA/SER.A/91)The United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) assistance program encompasses basic data collection, population dynamics, formulation of population policies, implementation of general policies, family planning activities, communication and education programs, and special programs and multisector activities. This paper focuses on UNFPA assistance in the area of mortality. The Fund does not provide support for activities related to the reduction of mortality per se; rather, it contributes indirectly to the improvement of infant, child, and maternal health through assistance to family planning programs integrated with maternal-child health care. The types of activities UNFPA supports in this area include prenatal, delivery, and postnatal care of mothers and infants; infant and child care; health and nutrition education; promotion of breastfeeding; monitoring of infant malnutrition; and diagnostic studies and treatment of infertility and subfecundity. The Fund has cumulatively expended about US$87.3 million for activities in the area of mortality and health policy. The Fund is currently providing collaborative assistance to the World Health Organization and the UN for a comprehensive project aimed at measuring mortality trends and examining the roles of socioeconomic development and selected interventions in the mortality decline in certain developing countries. At present there is a need for research on the persistence of high mortality in the least developed countries, the early levelling off of life expectancies in many countries, and the determinants of socioeconomic differentials in mortality. Understanding of the mortality situation in many developing countries has been hindered by a lack of descriptive data on mortality by socioeconomic, regional, and occupational status. The real challenge lies in the implementation of policies designed to reduce mortality; political, managerial, and cultural factors unique to each country, as well as pervasive poverty, make this a difficult process.
In: Mortality and health policy. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Mortality and Health Policy, Rome, 30 May to 3 June 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 270-88. (International Conference on Population, 1984; ST/ESA/SER.A/91)This paper reviews the technical cooperation efforts undertaken by the United Nations Department of Technical Cooperation for Development (DTCD) to help combat the high mortality levels in developing countries and to evolve policies in response to the World Population Plan of Action. Although the transfer of medical technology and the provision of drugs and other medical supplies remain important means of controlling death and disease, there is growing recognition of the need to develop national skills to deal with mortality, to maintain a continuous record of mortality and morbidity levels and their response to ameliorative programs, and to analyze the interrelationships between demographic, health, and socioeconomic variables. DTCD has focused on data collection and analysis, the integration of research findings into population policy formulation, and training and skill development to facilitate self-reliance. However, the lack of regular mechanisms for coordinating the activities of the various United Nations agencies that play a role in in technical cooperation in the areas of mortality and health policy has been a serious limitation. Another problem has been the dearth of tested alternative techniques for conducting simple health surveys whose results could be used in planning. Closer cooperation between United Nations agencies in this field is urged. It is also important that the recent reassignment of a low priority to data collection and analysis on the part of the United Nations Development Program be reversed. Unless data collection, analysis, and evaluation are reassigned a high priority, planners will be forced to depend on subjective judgments to evolve mortality policies. Finally, technical cooperation activities that aim to integrate mortality and morbidity control into population policies must be responsive to human rights.
New York, UNFPA, 1985 Mar. viii, 68 p. (Report No. 70)The UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) is in the process of an extensive programming exercise intended to respond to the needs for population assistance in a priority group of developing countries. This report presents the findings of the Mission that visited Burma from May 9-25, 1984. The report includes dat a highlights; a summary and recommendations for population assistance; the national setting; population policies and population and development planning; data collection, analysis, and demographic training and research;maternal and child health, including child spacing; population education in the in-school and out-of school sectors; women, population, and development; and external assistance -- multilateral assistance, bilateral assistance, and assistance from nongovernmental organizations. In Burma overpopulation is not a concern. Population activities are directed, rather, toward the improvement of health standards. The main thrust of government efforts is to reduce infant mortality and morbidity, promote child spacing, improve medical services in rural areas, and generally raise standards of public health. In drafting its recommendations, whether referring to current programs and activities or to new areas of concern, the Mission was guided by the government's policies and objectives in the field of population. Recommendations include: senior planning officials should visit population and development planning offices in other countries to observe program organization and implementation; continued support should be given to ensure the successful completion of the tabulation and analysis of the 1983 Population Census; the People's Health Plan II (1982-86) should be strengthened through the training of health personnel at all levels, in in-school, in-service, and out-of-country programs; and the need exists to establish a program of orientation to train administrators, trainers/educators, and key field staff of the Department of Health and the Department of Cooperatives in various aspects of population communication work.
London, International Planned Parenthood Federation, Europe Region, 1984 Jun. 122 p.Reflections, speculations, and partial evaluations of work already undertaken in the International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF) Europe Region concerning migrants and planned parenthood are presented. This project, initiated by the Federal Republic of Germany Planned Parenthood Association (PPA), PRO FAMILIA, stemmed from the practical experiences and problems of 1 family planning association in the Europe region. The original substantive framework, consisting of data collection and correspondence, plenary meetings, and subworking group meetings on specific areas of interest, was not altered. Throughout the project, as the work was accomplished, the emphasis shifted to different aspects to migrant work. The 1st questionnaire was intended to provide a sociodemographic profile of the participating countries, a show European migratory movements, and ascertain the ethnicity of the target groups in the different countries. The 2nd questionnaire was related specifically to PPA and/or other family planning center's data and activities and attempted to explore PPA attitudes toward migrant clients, when special facilities for migrants were provided, and whether PPAs felt there was a particular need for such services. The report provides a sociodemographic background of migration in Europe. In addition it includes information from donor countries and recipient countries, examining family planning services in the Federal Republic of Germany and the UK. It also covers training; information, education, and communication; adolescence and 2nd generation migrants; and migrant work. It is necessary to be particularly aware of political sensitivities in treating immigrant fertility regulation. Ideally, the aim is to provide an integrated service for migrants and natives both, catering to individual needs. Until this is feasible, the goal must be to work toward an integrated service, recognizing the needs and providing special services where possible if this is judged tobe the best approach to catering to those needs. Migrant needs must be discovered rather than assumed. Better use should be made of the available printed material, which should be utilized to complement oral information where possible. Experience has shown that family planning personnel working with migrants need additional training. The main components of this training should include self-awareness, insight, and knowledge.
New York, Pergamon, 1984. 240 p.This book, a sequel to "International Population Assistance: The First Decade," characterizes the work of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) with the developing countries up to 1984, relating these experiences to the issues before the 1984 International Conference on Population. The 1st chapter provides an overview of the significant developments in population up to the 1984 International Conference on Population. The next 7 chapters discuss the following main issues before the Conference and generally reflect the arrangement of the document to be brought before the Conference concerning recommendations for further implementation of the World Population Plan of Action: fertility, status of women and the family; morbidity and mortality; population distribution, internal and international migration; population growth and structure; promotion of knowledge and implementation of policies and programs; international cooperation and the role of UNFPA; and the year 2000 and beyond. Within each of these chapters, excerpts have been arranged in an analytic order, with the aim of facilitating the flow of arguments presented. Appendices contain the 5 "State of World Population Reports" issued from 1980-84 and 7 Rafael M. Salas statements which, primarily due to their focus on the population issues of particular importance to the major regions of the globe, are reproduced in their entirety. This volume reflects the process of population policymaking of the UNFPA with the developing countries in support of their population programs in the past 15 years. These policies were sanctioned and validated, both nationally by the countries themselves and globally by UN deliberative bodies and conferences. The experience of UNFPA in policy formulation indicates that an effective population policy must have its proper time perspective and must be scientifically determined in its component elements, normative and applicable at different levels, multisectoral in its emphasis, and measurable in its impact and consequenes.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 15-6. (Population Studies No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)As the UN demographic estimates and projections cover all the developed and developing countries, special problems are encountered in data collection and evaluations. The responsibility for the UN projections rests primarily with the Population Division, but the results are the product of collaboration by all responsible offices within the UN system. This is 1 of the strengths of the UN population projections, yet there are numerous problems concerning those projections. Aside from the perpetual difficulties with collection and estimation of basic demographic indicators from incomplete data, all of which must be continuously undertaken, there are 8 major problems which have become more important in recent years and concern the current UN demographic projections. The 1st problem is the question of meeting the needs of the users who are the researchers, the planners, and the policymakers. The 2nd problem is that significant improvement can be made in the methodologies with, on the 1 hand, the prodigious advances in calculation devices and research techniques and on the other, a better knowledge of the economic and social context of demographic variables. The 3rd major problem in the component method of projections of fertility, which continues to be the most influential component to the future population of most nations. Another component of projection, mortality, has become a pressing issue in the field of projection as well. Knowledge of mortality in the third world is highly fragmentary. The 5th problematic issue is urbanization and city growth. There are severe problems with data comparability and projection methods. Sixth, for several developing and developed countries international migration plays a significant role in their population growth. More problematic than estimating the current net numbers of migrants is formulating assumptions about future patterns of international migration. Seventh, thus far demographic projections have largely been based on the demographic theory of transition, which appears to continue to be useful for developing countries. Yet, the demographic transition models are affected by a wider variety of trajectories than anticipated. Finally, no one has been able to explain clearly the major simultaneous movements of fertility of the developed countries. The question of obvious policy significance is what will happen in the future.
[Unpublished] 1979 Jul 30. 107 p. (Contract No. AID/afr-C-1413)This paper provides recommendations to the Sahel Demvelopment Program of the U.S. Agency for International Development concerning an operational strategy for the promotion and development of social services and production have been the development goals of the Sahelian countries since 1960, progress to date has not met expectations. With the exception of Senegal and Mauritania, all the member countries still have per capita gross national products of less than $200 per year. Between 1960-75 the Gambia and Mauritania experienced some growth in their per capita gross national product, while those in the other countries have actually declined. The agricultural sectors are the basis of the national economies, employing 80-90% of the economically active population, and growth of the agricultural sector between 1960-70 has been slow but steady, averaging about 2% annually. The population of region is 28 million, with an age structure in which 45% of the population is under 15 years of age and 55% is between ages 15-64. The Sahel Demographic Research Program has as its objectives: 1) to substantially develop the capacity for demographic data collection, analysis, and research in the Sahel countries; 2) to improve the mechanisms of social and economic development by taking into consideration the interrelations of all social, economic, and demographic variables in the process of development; 3) to contribute to the definition of appropriate population policies that are based on reliable data and can contribute to the rehabilition of the Sahelian ecosystem; 4) to reinforce the scientific and technical cooperation and solidarity between the countries of the area from a self-relian and common perspective of subregional development. To achieve these goals, objectives for a "first generation program" to be undertaken during the period 1978-82 were formulated. The strategy for achieving the objectives should be designed so as to remove the human, physical, and financial resource constraints that are reflected in lack of appropriately trained personnel, institutional networks, financial resources, and coordination at all levels. Successful program impelmentation should result in a team of professional and technical personnel capable of identifying, collecting, analyzing, and utilizing demographic data needed for longterm development planning, systematization of the colleciton, and mechanisms for regional coordination and collaboration. Specifically, the strategy should consist of: 1) institution building and training; 2) establishment of a centralized computer bank; 3) expansion of the demographic database; 4) promotion of the application of demographic data in policy formulation, planning, project design, and evaluation; and 5) publication, dissemination, and translation of research.
New York, New York, UNFPA, 1982. 38 p. (Report No. 51)Tonga's annual population growth rate is 2.01% (1975-1980). There is a high birth rate, but emigration has eased population pressures somewhat. Tonga's development plans include population objectives and the nation has a family planning program; but there is no comprehensive national population policy. The Mission recommends that new posts be created within the planning structure for dealing with population concerns. The posts should be filled by trained nationals. A constraint to planning has been the lack of statistics. More survey data are needed. The Mission recommends that the censuses continue decennially. Registration of emigrants should be adopted, and that steps should be taken to help expand and strengthen the capacity of local institutions for social and economic research. Post-secondary courses should be developed to this end. The Mission also recommends assistance for filling vacant supervisory posts, strengthening the training capability of the Tonga Health Center, and recruiting more pulbic health nurses. Another recommendation is that health data collection and health education be strengthened. Curricula and materials on population concerns should be designed and teachers trained in their use. The Mission recommends expanding the use of radio for communication of population and health information. Women's activities and organizations need coordination. Extensive village-based training is recommended for women, youth, and rural residents.
New York, New York, UNFPA, 1983. 39 p. (Report No. 52)Samoa's major population problem is a high rate of natural population increase. The crude birth rate from 1971-1976 is estimated at 37.4/1000. The total fertility rate was estimated at 6.7 for the same period. Emigration has compensated for much of the natural population increase. The infant mortality rate is low; life expectancy is 64.3 years for females and 61 for males. A maternal and child health program with integrated child-spacing services is government supported. In 1979, 13% of all women of reproductive age used contraception. Samoa's 4th Five-Year National Devlopment Plan (1980-1984) includes a review of population trends. There is a need to develop a broad-based population policy. The Mission recommends that, to assist in the formulation and implementation of this policy, a high-level government office be appointed to coordinate population efforts, and a post of Population Coordinator created. Considerable data exist, although more information on specific development-related topics would be helpful. The Mission recommends that a survey unit should be set up. Service delivery of the maternal and child health and family planning activities should be improved. Traditional village social institutions should be included. The government plans to integrate population and family life education into the educational system through teacher training and curriculum development. Assistance in the produciton of materials would be helpful. The Mission recommends that women's activities be better coordinated.