Your search found 13 Results
Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):167-184.This paper intends to comment on some of the connections between demographic patterns and poverty reduction that have been sufficiently tested, and are now widely accepted. The first section of it gives an overview of the different conceptions of poverty that are currently considered. The second deals with poverty measurement, and with the availability of data, both in developed and developing countries, pointing at some of their problems and limitations, particularly for their use in international comparisons and macro-economic analysis. The third describes briefly how theories relating demography and poverty have evolved from the time that this issue was aroused by Malthus, and reviews the current state of the art. In the following section, some aspects of the incidence of poverty on fertility and mortality are explored. The dynamics of the demographic changes and their effects on economic development are the subject of the fifth section. Finally, the last section is devoted to the controversial role that the massive migration inflows that are a trait of our times can play in the eradication of poverty. (excerpt)
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION REVIEW. 1991 Spring; 25(1):60-92.The United Nations has recommended the measurement of types of international migration using demographic criteria, including length of stay and purpose of travel. Information systems at the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) have the potential to provide a basis for documenting these demographic characteristics, in particular, length of stay of temporary migrants to the United States. This article analyzes these characteristics of selected categories of nonimmigrant aliens. The results of the analysis are used to produce series of estimates of alien immigration that conform more closely to the U.N. recommended definitions and better represent demographic concepts of long-term immigration. A strategy for measuring emigration of aliens from the United States using INS information systems is also described. (EXCERPT)
Assessing the demographic consequences of major development projects. Proceedings of a United Nations Workshop, New York, 1-4 December 1986.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1988. vi, 183 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/81)Although considerable awareness of the behavioral relationships and interactions between demographic and socioeconomic processes has been established, analysis of the specific demographic impact of development projects has lagged behind. To remedy this situation, the United Nations has undertaken a project aimed at developing a practical, cost-effective methodology for assessing the demographic impact of development projects in a variety of settings and countries. The approach developed is based on available sources of data such as censuses and vital registration systems. The methodology was applied in particular to electrification and irrigation projects in selected developing countries and a workshop was convened in 1986 to review the approach developed. Background papers presented at the workshop (included in this volume) focused on both the experiences of other institutions with population impact analysis and on methodological and measurement issues. Workshop participants identified 2 types of problems in measuring the strength of the relationship between a development project input and its demographic effect: those encountered in measuring the observed relationship for a given development project, and those encountered in assessing the relative effects of different projects. It was recommended that changes at both the macro and micro levels should be compared, with an emphasis on how such factors affect demographic behavior. Ecological analysis can then be used to identify the factors that explained demographic differences between communities. There was also consensus that the ideal methodological approach should involve an experimental/control design and a longitudinal time frame. For planners, the utility of such impact studies lies no only in investment allocation or priority ranking of development projects, but in the improvement of project design as well.
RENKOU YANJIU / POPULATION RESEARCH. 1987 Sep; (5):43-8.The question of how to measure the influence of family planning in fertility has been addressed by numerous international scholars. Highlighted briefly here are some of the methods endorsed by United Nations publications and recognized by scholars of various countries: 1) Standardization; 2) John Bongaarts model; 3) Trend analysis; 4) Wishik model; 5) Converse model of Dorothy Nartman; 6) Potter model; 7) Nathan Keyfitz model; 8) "Plural model"; 9) Model analysis.
[Unpublished] 1984 May 8. 31 p. (CE 92/12)This report shows how demographic information can be analyzed and used to identify and characterize the groups assigned priority in the Regional Plan of Action and that it is necessary for the improvement of the planning and allocation of health resources so that national health plans can be adapted to encompass the entire population. In discussing the connections between health and population characteristics in the countries of the region, the report covers mortality, fertility and health, and fertility and population increase; spatial distribution and migration; and the structure of the population. Focus then moves on to health, development, and population policies and family planning. The final section of the report considers the response of the health sector to population trends and characteristics and to development-related factors. The operations of the health sector must be revised in keeping with the observed demographic situation and the projections thereof so that the goal of health for all by the year 2000 may be realized. In several countries of the region mortality remains high. In 1/3 of them, infant mortality during the period 1980-85 exceeds 60/1000 live births. If measures are not taken to reduce mortality 55% of the population of Latin America in the year 2000 will still be living in countries with life expectancies at birth of under 70 years. According to the projections, in the year 2000 the birthrate will stand at around 29/1000, with wide differences between the countries of the region, within each of them, and between socioeconomic strata. High fertility will remain a factor hostile to the health of women and children and a determinant of rapid population growth. Some governments view the present or predicted growth rates as excessive; others want to increase them; and some take no explicit position on the matter. The countries would be well advised to assign values to their birthrate, natural increase, and periods for doubling their populations in relation to their development plans and to the prospects for improving the standard of living and health of their populations. An important factor in urban growth is internal migration. These migrants, like some of those who move to other countries, may have health problems requiring special care. Regardless of a country's demographic situation, the health sector has certain responsibilities, including: the need to promote the framing and adoption of population and development policies, in whose implementation the importance of health measures is not open to question; and the need to favor the intersector coordination and articulation required to ensure that population aspects are considered in national development planning.
Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, 1985. 1 p.The 1986 Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) population data sheet gives statistics on the mid-1986 population, the annual growth rate, the crude birth and death rates, the total fertility rate, male and female expectancy at birth, the infant mortality rate, the percentage of the population aged 0-14 and 65 and over, population density, and the projected population in 2000 for the Asian and Pacific regions, and individual Asian and Pacific countries. Sources are cited for all statistics.
In: Medical education in the field of primary maternal child health care [edited by] M.M. Fayad, M.I. Abdalla, Ibrahim I. Ibrahim, Mohamed A. Bayad. [Cairo, Egypt, Cairo University, Faculty of Medicine, Dept. of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 1984]. 421-34.This paper begins by stating that the mortality from neonatal tetanus has been peculiarly underestimated until recently, and discusses why this has been the case. The availability of a methodology for retrospective surveys and undertaking of such surveys in recent years has thrown much light on the subject. The results of these surveys from 15 countries are presented in tabular form. It is apparent that at present between 500,000 and 1 million newborn infants a year succumb to tetanus. The prospects for control, using the combined approach of improved maternity care and maternal immunization, are discussed, and an appropriate schedule of immunization suggested. The prospects for control are good wherever there is realization of the magnitude of the problem plus reasonable access to even quite basic primary health care. Some activities of WHO in this field are briefly described. (author's)
Demography India. 1984 Jan-Dec; 13(1-2):153-67.The threshold hypothesis shares with transition theory the basic assumption that a decline in fertility is interrelated with a decline in mortality and change in the social, economic, and cultural conditions of the population. However, threshold theory fails to formulate a causal chain between fertility and the other variables and its application at the aggregate country level is limited by intracountry heterogeneity in cultural and social variables. Problematic is the fixing of the timing for a country of a decline in fertility to be inferred from the fact that some indicators of development have reached the threshold zone while others have not. This paper attempts to develope a combined index for socioeconomic development on the basis of data from 12 countries of the ESCAP region of South East Asia. Variables included were life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, adult female literacy, percentages of females economically active, GNP per capita, and percentage urban population. In 1970, 3 of the countries analyzed had a crude birth rate below 25, 6 countries had a rate between 25-40, and 3 had a rate above 40. The lowest value of the index recorded for countries of low fertility (crude birth rate below 25) and the highest value recorded for countries of high fertility (above 40) are taken as the threshold zones for the overall index. The number of countries in the threshold range increased from 5 in 1970 to 8 in 1975. With the increase in the index value, a reduction in the fertility level was noted. In contrast, where socioeconomic development was slow, fertility showed little change. Policy makers could use this system to assess which indicator could be pushed through to raise the overall index of development so as to effect a decline in fertility.
In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
[Unpublished] 1984. Presented at the Second African Population Conference, Arusha, Tanzania, January 9-13, 1984. 21 p.This discussion of Ethiopia focuses on: sources of demographic data; population size and age-sex distribution; urbanization; fertility; marital status of the population; mortality and health; rate of natural increase; economic activity and labor force activity rates; food production; education; population policies and programs; and population in development planning. As of 1983, Ethiopia's population was estimated at 33.7 million. Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy. Ethiopia has not yet conducted a population census, however, the 1st population and housing census is planned for 1984. The population is young with children under 15 years of age constituting 45.4% of the total population; 3.5% of the population are aged 65 years and older. The degree of urbanization is very low while the urban growth rate is very high. Most of the country is rural with only 15% of the population living in localities of 2000 or more inhabitants. In 1980-81 the crude birthrate was 46.9/1000. The total fertility rate was 6.9. Of those aged 15 years and older, 69.2% of males and 71.3% of females are married. According to the 1980-81 Demographic Survey the estimates of the levels of mortality were a crude death rate of 18.4/1000 and an infant mortality rate of 144/1000. At this time 45% of the population have access to health services. It is anticipated that 80% of the population will be covered by health care services in 10 years time. Ethiopia is increasing at a very rapid rate of natural increase; the 1980 estimation was 2.9% per annum. Despite the rich endowments in agricultural potential, Ethiopia is not self-sufficient in food production and reamins a net importer of grain. Enrollment at various levels of education is expanding rapidly. There is no official population policy. Financial assistance received from the UN Fund for Population Activities and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund for population programs is shown.
New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
[Unpublished] 1983. Presented at the 1983 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Pittsburgh, April 14-16. 35 p.In 1950 fertility levels in the developing countries were high. The crude birthrates (CBRs) were about 47 in Africa, 42 in the Americas, and 41 in Asia and the Pacific. In Asia and the Pacific, several countries are thought to have had fertility rates between 35-40/1000. In Latin America, Argentina, Cuba, and Uruguay the birthrates were less than 30/1000 and between 30-35/1000 in Chile and Jamaica. No country in Africa was reported to have had a rate below 40 with the sole exception of Gabon which is reported to have had a crude birthrate between 30-35/1000, not only in 1950 but this remained unchanged up to 1980. By 1965 there had been a little change in several countries but virtually no change at all in Africa. During the next 15 years the situation changed markedly in Asia and the Pacific with the crude birthrate decreasing by almost 1/4, from a little more than 39 to 30. There was a similar but slightly smaller decrease in Latin America, a decrease from 40-32, or about 20%. In Africa there was virtually no change. Many scholars and laypersons concerned about the rapid rate of population growth have expressed the view that population policies have been slow to develop. By 1980, 39 countries with a population of 2.6 billion or 78% of the population of all developing countries had adopted official policies to reduce the population growth rate. Many of these policies are without substance but a fairly large number of the countries have developed substantial population programs, as well as policies to reduce rates of population growth. There were an additional 33 countries with a total population of 554 million that had no demographic policy to reduce rates of population growth but nonetheless gave officcial support to family planning activities. Prior to 1960 only India had a population policy to reduce rates of population growth but during the 1960-64 period 4 additional countries in Asia and the Pacific adopted such policies, namely China, Korea, Pakistan, and Fiji. It was not until 1965 and after that African and Latin American countries adopted such policies. The annual number of family planning acceptors in large scale programs increased from a few tens of thousands around 1960 to about 2 1/2 million in 1965 and to approximately 25 million in 1980, excluding China, for which quantitative data are less readily available. In some countries contraceptive prevalence rates remain low after many years of a national family planning program, e.g., Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, and Bangladesh. Various macroeconomic studies, using countries as units, have found that both socioeconomic and population programs have important effects on fertility decline. UN projections (medium variant) to 2000-2005 assume a continuation of fertility decline in less developed countries (LDCs), including the start of decline in black Africa and Arab countries. Even if the UN projections are consistent with the realities of the years ahead, there is enormous population growth ahead.
REVIEWS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES. 1983 May-Jun; 5(3):452-9.This summary of the worldwide impact of measles discusses epidemiology, reported incidence, clinical severity, community attitudes toward measles, and the impact of immunization programs on measles. Measles, 1 of the most ubiquitous and persistent of human viruses, occurs regularly everywhere in the world except in very remote and isolated areas. Strains of measles virus from different counties are indistinguishable, and serum antibodies from diverse population have identical specificity. Yet, the epidemic pattern, average age at infection, and mortality vary considerably from 1 area to another and provide a contrasting picture between the developing and the developed countries. In the populous areas of the world, measles causes epidemics every 2-5 years, but in the rapidly expanding urban conglomerations in the developing world, the continuous immigration from the rural population provides a constant influx of susceptible individuals and, in turn, a sustained occurrence of measles and unclear epidemic curves. In the economically advanced nations, measles epidemics are closely tied to the school year, building up to a peak in the late spring and ceasing abruptly after the summer recess begins. Maternal antibody usually confers protection against measles to infants during the 1st few months of life. The total number of cases of measles reported to WHO for 1980 is 2.9 million. Considering that in the developing world alone almost 100 million infants are born yearly, that less than 20% of them are immunized against measles, and that various studies indicate that almost all nonimmunized children get measles, less than 3 million cases of measles in 1980 is a gross underestimate. There was adecrease in the global number of reported cases of measles during the 1979-80 period due primarily to the reduction in the number of cases in the African continent and, to a lesser extent, in Europe. It is premature to conclude that such a reported decline is real and that it reflects the beginning of a longterm trend. The contrast between the developed and the developing worlds is most marked in relation to the severity and outcome of measles. Case fatality rates of more than 20% have been reported from West Africa. It has been estimated that 900,000 deaths occur yearly in the developing world because of measles, but data available to WHO indicate that the global case fatality rate in the developing world approaches 2% (in contrast to 2/10,000 cases in the US), and the actal mortality may be greater than 1.5 million deaths per year. The advent of WHO's Expanded Program on Immunization has brought about an awareness of the measles problem. Whenever and wherever measles vaccine has been used effectively on a large scale, a marked reduction in the number of cases has been recorded.