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Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP], 1988 Aug. iii, 41,  p. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 62-K)The goal of this Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) project was to help family planning administrators and other development planners to pinpoint areas of high and low fertility through reference to a series of maps. Maps have the advantage of being able to summarize an enormous number of items of information in an easily comprehendable manner, including not only the levels and trends of fertility of each area, but also the contrasts between areas and groups of areas at 1 time and over time. The project began when data from the 1980 censuses became available and focused on 10 countries: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The maps show in detail, in some cases at the level of very small administrative areas, levels and trends of fertility during the 1970s and where possible the 1960s. The 10 countries participating in this study had to develop new methodological techniques to estimate the fertility of small areas from census data. In most cases, fertility was estimated from the age-sex distribution and children ever born classified by age of mother. Central to the analysis was the concept of reverse survival, which assumes that the number of births can be estimated from the census counts of children and an estimate of the number of children who would have been enumerated in the census if they had not died. The major lesson of this study was that maps of fertility can be drawn with sufficient accuracy to show patterns that cannot be identified easily through any other approach.
[Unpublished] 1985. 78 p.A Population/Family Health Assessment was conducted in the Democratic Republic of Madagascar (GDRN) to review population and family planning activities and to make general recommendations for improvement, including the type of US Agency for International Development (USAID) population assistance that should be provided. Despite the fact that Madagascar's population of approximately 9 million is growing at a rate of 2.8% annually, meaning the population will double in less than 25 years, there is no official population policy. Yet, it is significant that the reduction of maternal and infant mortality and morbidity has been identified as an explicit goal in the health sector, and the country's actions long have reflected an attitude of acceptance and support of family planning. The private family planning association is recognized as a nongovernmental organization, which provides clinical and contraceptive services throughout Madagascar. The public health system offers no family planning services. Although the French law of 1920 forbidding the sale and use of contraceptives has not been rescinded, it is not enforced. The private family planning association now provides contraceptive services in 40 Ministry of Health facilities at the request of public health physicians, and the government has approved the participation of 35 medical and paramedical personnel in training courses as well as the installation of laparoscopic equipment in 8 medical facilities. Several other organizations provide child spacing services. Despite the efforts being made, the availability of contraceptive services remains limited, and contraceptive prevalence was estimated at 1% of women aged 15-49 in 1982. Several obstacles impede accessibility to contraceptive services and expansion of family planning programs, including a culture which favors large families, the strong influence of the Catholic Church, and a limited number of medical centers providing family planning services. Further, communication between the Office of Population and the Ministry of Health has not been the most favorable for the development of effective programs either area, but the recent naming of a physician to the position of Director of Population may facilitate closer collaboration. The recommendations made outline a general strategy for the initiation of population activities in the shortterm.
[Unpublished] 1984 May 8. 31 p. (CE 92/12)This report shows how demographic information can be analyzed and used to identify and characterize the groups assigned priority in the Regional Plan of Action and that it is necessary for the improvement of the planning and allocation of health resources so that national health plans can be adapted to encompass the entire population. In discussing the connections between health and population characteristics in the countries of the region, the report covers mortality, fertility and health, and fertility and population increase; spatial distribution and migration; and the structure of the population. Focus then moves on to health, development, and population policies and family planning. The final section of the report considers the response of the health sector to population trends and characteristics and to development-related factors. The operations of the health sector must be revised in keeping with the observed demographic situation and the projections thereof so that the goal of health for all by the year 2000 may be realized. In several countries of the region mortality remains high. In 1/3 of them, infant mortality during the period 1980-85 exceeds 60/1000 live births. If measures are not taken to reduce mortality 55% of the population of Latin America in the year 2000 will still be living in countries with life expectancies at birth of under 70 years. According to the projections, in the year 2000 the birthrate will stand at around 29/1000, with wide differences between the countries of the region, within each of them, and between socioeconomic strata. High fertility will remain a factor hostile to the health of women and children and a determinant of rapid population growth. Some governments view the present or predicted growth rates as excessive; others want to increase them; and some take no explicit position on the matter. The countries would be well advised to assign values to their birthrate, natural increase, and periods for doubling their populations in relation to their development plans and to the prospects for improving the standard of living and health of their populations. An important factor in urban growth is internal migration. These migrants, like some of those who move to other countries, may have health problems requiring special care. Regardless of a country's demographic situation, the health sector has certain responsibilities, including: the need to promote the framing and adoption of population and development policies, in whose implementation the importance of health measures is not open to question; and the need to favor the intersector coordination and articulation required to ensure that population aspects are considered in national development planning.
In: Tras nuevas raices: migraciones internas y colonizacion en Bolivia [by] Carlos Garcia-Tornell, Maria Elena Querejazu, Jose Blanes, Fernando Calderon, Jorge Dandler, Julio Prudencio, Luis Lanza, Giovanni Carnibella, Gloria Ardaya, Gonzalo Flores [and] Alberto Rivera. La Paz, Bolivia, Ministerio de Planeamiento y Coordinacion, Direccion de Planeamiento Social, Proyecto de Politicas de Poblacion, 1984 Apr. 51-251.A study of colonization programs in Bolivia was conducted as part of a larger evaluation of population policy. The 1st of 8 chapters examines the history of colonization programs in Bolivia and the role of state and international development agencies. It sketches the disintegration of the peasant economy, and presents 5 variables that appear to be central to colonization processes: the directedness or spontaneity of the colonization, the distance to urban centers and markets, the diversification of production, the length of time settled, and the origin of the migrants. The 2nd chapter describes the study methodology. The major objective was to evaluate government policies and plans in terms of the realistic possibilities of settlement in colonies for peasants expelled from areas of traditional agriculture. Interviews and the existing literature were the major sources used to identify the basic features and problems of colonization programs. 140 structured interviews were held with colonists in the Chapare zone, 43 in Yapacari, and 51 in San Julian. The 3 zones were selected because of their diversity, but the sample was not statistically representative and the findings were essentially qualitative. The 3rd chapter examines the relationships between the place of origin and the stages of settlement. The chapter emphasizes the influence of place of origin and other factors on the processes of differentiation, proletarianization, and pauperization. The 4th chapter examines the productive process, profitability of farming, the market, and reproductive diversification. The next chapter analyzes the technology and the market system of the colonists, the dynamics of the unequal exchange system in which they operate, and aspects related to ecological equilibrium and environmental conservation. The 6th chapter concentrates on family relationships and the role played by the family in colonization. Some features of the population structure of the colonies are described. The 7th chapter assesses forms of organization, mechanisms of social legitimation, and the important role of peasant syndicates. The final chapter summarizes the principal trends encountered in each of the themes analyzed and makes some recommendations concerning the colonization program, especially in reference to the family economy and labor organizations.
In: Population strategy in Asia. The Second Asian Population Conference, Tokyo, November 1972. Report, declaration and selected papers, [compiled by] United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East [ECAFE]. Bangkok, Thailand, ECAFE, 1974 Jun. 69-130. (Asian Population Study Series No. 28; E/C.N.11/1152)The Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) region currently includes 31 countries and territories. Since the first Asian Population Conference in 1963, there has been greater recognition of the adverse effects of rapid population growth on national development and on the standard of living of individual family units. By the year 2000, the population of the ECAFE region is expected to almost equal the total for the world in 1970, despite significantly slowed population growth in the East Asia subregion. During the periods 1900-1950 and 1950-2000, the average annual rates of growth for the population of the ECAFE region are estimated at 0.7% and 2.0%, respectively. The 4 largest countries in the region--China, India, Indonesia, and Japan--together hold 78% of the region's total population. Even in the countries where there has been a decline in fertility, it has not been sufficient to offset the effects of corresponding declines in mortality. The 1950 population of each country, except for China and Japan, will at least double itself by the year 2000. The number of preschool-aged children is expected to reach 356 million by 1980 and there will be 609 million school-aged children. Children ages 0-14 years currently comprise about 40% of the total population of the ECAFE region, producing a high dependency burden. The female population in the reproductive age group will grow from 474 million in 1970 to 593 million in 1980, implying that the fertility potential of the region will be accelerated. In addition, the population of persons aged 60 years and over will increase from 117 million in 1970 to 158 million in 1980, requiring significant investments in health facilities and social security. The urban population in the region is expected to increase from 25% in 1970 to 45% by 2000. Despite widespread awareness of the interrelation of population and development, no common approach among demographers, family plannes, and economic plannes has emerged.
Voorburg, Netherlands, Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute, 1985 Sep. ix, 56 p. (Working Paper of the N.I.D.I. No. 63)The objective of this report is to introduce the available techniques of life history analysis to study the data collected by the national migration surveys and to demonstrate the relevance of such techniques to provide more insight into to the problems addressed by the ESCAP migration and urbanization project. The 2nd section of the report introduces the basic concepts, with special reference to migration, and contains a simple example. Section 3 deals with 3 further issues which may arise while modeling migration histories: the alternative definitions of the state-space; the definition of the time dependence; and heterogeneity considerations and ways of dealing with heterogeneity for discrete state stochastic models of migration. The 4th section focuses on some major problems which may arise while estimating stochastic models of migration histories with ESCAP migration his. 2 issues are emphasized in this section: problems with the measurement of the timing of the events and issues related to using the information on the covariates of migration. Continous time stochastic models provide a powerful means of modeling event sequences. Migration histories consist of information on the times and the characteristics of migration experienced by individuals. More conventional ways of modeling such data are the dummy variables regression, the logit regression, or aggregation of the data are to form contingency tables and application of the log-linear models. Continous time event history models easily be generalized to incorporate complex designs of the state space, which express the moves between residences, and to provide detailed and cross nationally comparable information on the patterns of time dependence. Additionally, they are based on the estimation techniques which do not require unrealistic assumptions. These models aim at identifying a dynamic process that underlies the observed data. Estimated parameters of these models provide a description of the time dependence and also provide quantitative information about the effects of exogenous variables on the phenomenon of interest. The dependent variable of the continous time event history models is usually the instantaneous transition rate which is not directly observable. The estimated coefficients of the exogenous variables may be interpreted the same as the coefficients of a regression model, except that they usually have a multiplicative relation with the dependent variable. Once models of fundamental parameters of the underlying process are designed and estimated, many implications of such a process may be derived.
Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, 1985. 1 p.The 1986 Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) population data sheet gives statistics on the mid-1986 population, the annual growth rate, the crude birth and death rates, the total fertility rate, male and female expectancy at birth, the infant mortality rate, the percentage of the population aged 0-14 and 65 and over, population density, and the projected population in 2000 for the Asian and Pacific regions, and individual Asian and Pacific countries. Sources are cited for all statistics.
Report of the Second Study Directors' Meeting on Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationships for Selected ESCAP Countries, 5-10 March 1986, Bangkok, Thailand.
Bangkok, Thailand, U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1986. 217, vii p.This volume reports on the 2nd Study Directors' Meeting on the project "Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationships for Selected ESCAP Countries." National study teams were organized for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand; study teams reviewed their respective countries' demographic and economic situations and existing work on demographic-economic modeling as well as specifying preliminary models to be developed. The 1st study directors' meeting held in 1984 reviewed and discussed demographic-economic models to be developed for the 3 countries with a view to identifying appropriate demographic-economic models for these countries. At the 2nd meeting held in 1986, participants presented country reports for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand as well as reports comparing 1) the 3 country-specific demographic submodels, 2) economic submodels, and 3) sumulations with the demographic-economic submodels. Draft reports are presented in their original forms as submitted by study directors.
[Papers presented at the First Study Director's Meeting on Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationship for Selected ESCAP Countries, 29 October-2 November 1984, Bangkok, Thailand]
[Unpublished, 1984].  p.This study group report 1) investigates quantitatively the process of population change and socioeconomic development to identify policy recommendations for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand and 2) examines the application of the "systems approach" and econometric technics for population and development planning. These country-specific studies will help to clarify the interrelationships between demographic and socioeconomic factors in the development process of each participating country and the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region in general. The meeting 1) reviewed major demographic and economic issues in each participating country, 2) reviewed extant work on model building in each country, and 3) outlined a preliminary system design. Several economic-demographic models are discussed. The participants recommended that 1) the models focus of similar issues such as migration and income distribution and 2) countries should adopt, whenever possible, a similar modeling methodology. Participants agreed that models should be based, where possible, on a base-year Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). This poses no problems in Thailand or Malaysia as SAMs are already available for these countries. However, no SAM is currently available for the Philippines. Participants further recommended that the 3 models could be improved by greater collaboration among study directors during model formulation and estimation. Participants also expressed concern about the size of the computing budget and thought that models could be improved by an increased budget for computer time.
Demography India. 1984 Jan-Dec; 13(1-2):153-67.The threshold hypothesis shares with transition theory the basic assumption that a decline in fertility is interrelated with a decline in mortality and change in the social, economic, and cultural conditions of the population. However, threshold theory fails to formulate a causal chain between fertility and the other variables and its application at the aggregate country level is limited by intracountry heterogeneity in cultural and social variables. Problematic is the fixing of the timing for a country of a decline in fertility to be inferred from the fact that some indicators of development have reached the threshold zone while others have not. This paper attempts to develope a combined index for socioeconomic development on the basis of data from 12 countries of the ESCAP region of South East Asia. Variables included were life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, adult female literacy, percentages of females economically active, GNP per capita, and percentage urban population. In 1970, 3 of the countries analyzed had a crude birth rate below 25, 6 countries had a rate between 25-40, and 3 had a rate above 40. The lowest value of the index recorded for countries of low fertility (crude birth rate below 25) and the highest value recorded for countries of high fertility (above 40) are taken as the threshold zones for the overall index. The number of countries in the threshold range increased from 5 in 1970 to 8 in 1975. With the increase in the index value, a reduction in the fertility level was noted. In contrast, where socioeconomic development was slow, fertility showed little change. Policy makers could use this system to assess which indicator could be pushed through to raise the overall index of development so as to effect a decline in fertility.
In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
Population Research Leads. 1985; (19):1-15.The Population Division's evaluation of the role of population factors in the planning process through the application of economic-demographic models shows that procedures for considering the short and long-term implications of population growth can be significantly improved. The Division's research projects demonstrate that models can help planners to achieve an efficient allocation of scarce resources, set clear-cut national objectives and provide a national sense of political and social purpose. There are many advantages in applying economic-demographic models to development planning in order to integrate population factors within the development process, yet care must be taken in adopting and/or applying a certain model at the national level. Aside from the question of adopting a model, the question of the applicability and application of models is emphasized. The choice of model structure is discussed in terms of 4 major issues: 1) the choice of a central core; 2) the trade-off between simplicity and complexity and the appropriate degree of endogeneity; 3) the choice of a demand or supply orientation; and 4) the criteria for selecting a particular model for use. A representative selection of economic demographic models is presented. Included are the TEMPO (designed to illustrate the benefits of reduced fertility) and Long-Range Planning Models (LAPM--designed to illustrate the implications of policy assumptions for economic development, particularly in regard to health and education), both developed by the US government. Also described are the BACHUE and the UN Fund for Populations Activities (UNFPA)/ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) models. It is argued that these latter models offer the greatest promise as tools for planning in the ESCAP Region, at the present time. As the BACHUE model is primarily concerned with employment and the distribution of income and the UNFPA/FAO model with agriculture, incorporating both into the planning process could be desirable.
In: Aspects of population change and development in some African and Asian countries. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1984. 43-56. (CDC Research Monograph Series no. 9)This paper examines the relationship between economic development and demographic change in the 13 states of the Economic Commission for West Asia (ECWA) region. Demographic variables considered include per capita income, proportion urban, proportion in urban areas with over 100,000 inhabitants, literacy among those over 15 years, and literacy among women. Unweighted rankings on these variables were added to produce a development ranking or general development index. Then this index was used to investigate the relationship between development and individual scores and rankings for various demographic indices. The development index exhibited a rough fit with the mortality indices, especially life expectancy at birth. Mortality decline appears to be most closely related to rise in income. At the same income level, countries that have experienced substantial social change tend to exhibit the lowest mortality, presumably because of a loosening in family role patterns. In contrast, the relationship between development and fertility measures seemed to be almost random. A far closer correlation was noted between the former and the general development index. It is concluded that economic development alone will not reduce fertility. Needed are 2 changes: 1) profound social change in the family and in women's status, achievable through increases in female education, and 2) government family planning programs to ensure access to contraception.
The uses of demographic knowledge for policies and planning in developing countries: problems and issues
Iussp Newsletter/Bulletin de Liaison. 1985 Jan-Aug; (23-24):99-120.The author discusses some issues involved in the use of demographic knowledge for policy development and planning in developing countries. The literature concerning factors affecting the uses of knowledge by policymakers is reviewed. The dissemination of knowledge at the international and national levels is examined, with a focus on technical assistance organizations, especially U.N. demographic centers, and on national population institutions. (ANNOTATION)
Asian and Pacific Population Programme News. 1985 Mar; 14(1):2-5.In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.
In: Population, resources, environment and development. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development, Geneva, 25-29 April 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 175-86. (Population Studies No. 90; ST/ESA/SER.A/90; International Conference on Population, 1984)In carrying out the recommendations of the World Population Plan of Action, the UN has expanded its technical cooperation activities with the countries concerned in diverse population development fields, including studies of the interaction between social, economic, and demographic variables, the formulation and implementation of policies, the integration of demographic factors in the planning process, the training of national staff, and the improvement of the data base and institutional arrangements. Discussion focuses on country problems and policies, national institutional capacity in population and development planning, strengthening national institutional capacities, and integration of population and development in the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region. The interaction between structural change in population and social and economic development is generally recognized at the aggregate, sectoral, and regional levels, yet it has not thus far been possible to take this factor fully into account in the development planning process in many countries. In too many cases, population policies have been formulated and implemented in isolation and not in harmony with development policies or as an integral part of overall development strategy. Deficiencies in achieving integrated population policies and integration of demographic factors in the development planning process often have been caused or aggravated by a deficient knowledge of the interactions between demographic and socioeconomic factors and by insufficient expertise, resources, and proper institutional arrangements in the field. The population policies most frequently formulated and implemented during the last decade dealt with fertility, population growth, migration (internal and international), and mortality. Many governments continue to assign relatively low priority to the formulation of population policy and the formulation of related institutional arrangements. The fact that population is still understood as family planning by a number of governments also delays the legislative procedure necessary to establish government institutions for population research and study. The need exists to create a viable national institutional capacity through the establishment of a population planning unit within the administrative structure of national planning bodies. The substantive content of the work programs of these units would vary from country to country. There also is a need for a broader approach to the adoption of population policies and development planning strategies. Some progress has been made in integrating population into development planning in the ESCAP region, but the progress has been slow.
New York, United Nations, 1982. 345 p. (Comparative Study on Migration, Urbanization and Development in the ESCAP Region. Survey Manuals)In the developing countries of the Asian and Pacific region, migration and urbanization are major policy issues. To assist countries in confronting these issues the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) has undertaken the design of a model national migration survey that will generate the types of information deemed of most use to national policymakers. This volume's purpose is to outline some of the principal techniques and approaches that can be applied to the data collected through the model. The introductory chapter highlights the types of information that can be generated from the model to see how these relate to the major issues in migration research and to provide the background and summaries of the analytical chapters that follow. The 12 chapters of this volume deal with various aspects of the analysis of migration in relation to development. These include discussions on aspects of policy implementation, measurement of spatial flows, the interrelationship between census and survey data, the causes and impacts of migration, and projections of future flows. The chapter devoted to the ESCAP national migration surveys and the development of population redistribution policies provides an overview of how the various aspects of population mobility systems revealed by the migration surveys can prove useful for policy formulation and remedy current deficiencies in data necessary for planning. In a chapter on identification and measurement of spatial population movements an attempt is made to develop a typology of population mobility based on a space-time continuum framework, but the recorded statistics of population mobility are restricted to discrete spatial units and discrete time intervals. The chapter dealing with techniques for analysis of migration history data emphasizes the usefulness of the life history approach and how it can be used in the analysis of the most important topics in migration research such as changes in the pattern of movement over time and the determinants and consequences of migration. One chapter focuses on subjectively expressed motivations for moving, examining the strengths and weaknesses of self assessed motivations. Subsequent chapters show that the national migration survey model has the potential to provide data to evaluate the conditions that operate to produce migrant/nonmigrant fertility differentials, address some of the theoretical aspects of the decision of whether or not to intervene in population redistribution patterns, discuss possible dimensions of the study of migration impacts, and examine various conventional methods of subnational population projections and suggests an innovative technique that will increase understanding of the dynamic process of multiregional population growth and distribution.
Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. 1983 May; 467:62-77.Large Scale refugee flows, typically koccurring in developing countries, inspire the formation of transnational networks that pose new issues of policy Making, direction, execution, and legitimacy. Institutional responses to the presence of refugees, often in the poorest and least well-administered areas on earth, comprise reactions at the local, national, and transnational levels, including both intergovernmental and voluntary organizations. These responses produce ad hoc organizational entities to deal with unanticipated difficulties. Even after news of a refugee flow is spread, governments can still adopt an isolating policy but more likely will be forced to turn to such transnational networks for help. In a widely felt political disturbance, the positions of the great powers will have a substantial conditioning effect on the handling of refugees. Whatever the pattern of response, refugees tend to involve the asylum state in transnational networks in order to cope with local repercussions as well as care of those in flight. Later, the emphasis may well shift from emergency to diplomatic networks is shifting and unpredictable, conditioned by specific circumstances. Nevertheless, the High Commissioner for Refugees and other intergovenmental bodies serve as natural nuclei for expansion. More integrated modes of organization currently are of doubtful utility. (author's)