Your search found 234 Results
[Unpublished] 2005. Presented at the 2005 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, March 31 - April 2, 2005. 22 p.The aim of this paper is to identify the lessons of the earlier population movement for AIDS control. We begin at the international level, where problems and solutions were defined, funding raised, interventions conceived. Although the problems and solutions were perceived as global, the multilateral and bilateral agencies that directed the interventions necessarily had to work through the governments of sovereign states, or at the least with their permission. We then examine the local responses that, in the case of the population movement, led to fertility decline and, we predict, will lead to a downturn in the spread of HIV. In our conclusions, we attempt to distill the key points of these sagas: what have we learned about the process of delinking sex from birth that is relevant for current humanitarian efforts to sever the connection between sex and death? (excerpt)
In: An agenda for people: the UNFPA through three decades, edited by Nafis Sadik. New York, New York, New York University Press, 2002. 137-150.This volume chronicles the remarkable success -- indeed, the reproductive revolution -- that has taken place over the last thirty years, in which the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has played such a major role. Our purpose in this chapter is to contrast the situation at the century's end with the one that existed at the time of UNFPA's creation thirty years ago, and to project from the current situation to the new challenges that lie ahead. In many respects, the successful completion of the fertility transition that is now so far advanced will bring an entirely new set of challenges, and these will require a fundamental rethinking about the future mandate, structure, staffing and programme of UNFPA in the twenty-first century. Our purpose here is to identify those challenges and speculate about their implications. (author's)
2003 world population data sheet of the Population Reference Bureau. Demographic data and estimates for the countries and regions of the world.
Washington, D.C., PRB, 2003. 13 p.With every passing year, prospects for population growth in the more developed and less developed countries grow more dissimilar. On this year’s Data Sheet, the total fertility rate (TFR) for the more developed countries is a mere 1.5, compared with 3.1 in the less developed countries—3.5 if outlier China’s large statistical effect is removed. But the passage of time, as well as the difference in fertility rates, is ensuring that the two types of countries can expect to continue to have different population sizes in the future. The decline in Europe’s fertility rates is not a recent phenomenon; those rates have been low for quite some time. As a result, there have been long-term changes to age distributions in Europe, and this “youth dearth” is now taking on a more significant role in the near certainty of population decline. (excerpt)
Encounter. 2000 Jul-Aug; 3(4):38-52.Accordingly, the broad objective of this paper is twofold (1) To assess the state of progress of GUI country with emphasis on demography, economy and society. (2) To examine the challenges the country is likely to face in coming years. (excerpt)
Medical Hypotheses. 2003 Jul; 61(1):21-22.According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earth’s surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994. A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (p <0:05). Conclusions. The results of our analyses are consistent with the underlying premise that temperature change affects fertility and suggests that human fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures. (author's)
New York, New York, United Nations, 1992. x, 50,  p. (Statistics on Special Population Groups. Series Y. No. 6; ST/ESA/STAT/SER.Y/6)This compendium provides statistical tables and charts and descriptive summaries of the main trends in the social and economic conditions of youth in 176 countries during 1970-90. Country specific tables are presented at the end of each of the five chapters on population, education and training, economic activity, health and childbearing, and households and marital status. Regional and subregional averages are based on unweighted data. Subregional averages are indicated where there are wide differences among countries. Data are obtained from official national and international sources. The world youth population aged 15-24 years was an estimated 519 million men and 493 million women in 1990 (>1 billion total). This total reflects a 52% increase since 1970. Over 80% of youth lived in developing regions. Over 60% lived in Asia. The annual growth rate of youth declined to 1-2% during the late 1980s. In 37 countries, the youth growth rate is increasing by more than 3% per year. In developed regions, the youth growth rate was under 0.5% per year. The male/female sex ratio was about 106:100. In 30 countries the sex ratio was higher. Over 50% of youth lived in urban areas in Eastern Europe and the USSR, other developed regions, North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and West Asia. Most youth lived in rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Oceania. Almost 30% of young men aged 20-24 years were household heads in developed regions and sub-Saharan Africa. By age 20, few women were married, except in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Fertility rates among women aged 20-24 years were lowest in developed regions, except Eastern Europe and the USSR, and in East and Southeast Asia. 66% of youth lived in countries with very low per capita income (under $1000/year). Young women's illiteracy rates were higher than men's except in Latin America and the Caribbean.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1993. , 19 p. (Statistical Papers Series A Vol. XLV, No. 1; ST/ESA/STAT/SER.A/184)The UN Population and Vital Statistics volume reports on available registered data, as of January 1, 1993, on live births, deaths, and infant deaths, excluding fetal deaths, in the defacto population within present boundaries recorded in civil registers. Estimates are generated for mid-year population figures. Quality of the vital statistics data is recorded as data which represent 90% of events occurring each year, data representing <90% of events, and unidentified data. Quality of population statistics is recorded as quality of adjustments that were made to the data. Population figures are coded by the nature of the data, the recency of the base data, the method of time adjustment, and quality of the time adjustment. Population is indicated as population from the latest census, the latest official estimate, and mid-year estimate. Vital statistics data are given as registered births and birth rate, registered deaths and death rate, registered infant deaths and infant mortality rate, and estimated rates for births, deaths, and infant deaths. Data are reported by specific country and do not include regional totals.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1992. viii, 134 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/131)The most recent UN analysis of fertility levels and trends over the period 1965-89 in selected countries which have achieved fertility transition from high to low fertility is presented. The study is both descriptive and analytical. All low fertility countries analyzed, with the exceptions of Romania, Ireland, and the former USSR, had total fertility of 2.1 or less in 1988-89 and include the following: Japan, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore, most European countries, Canada, the US, Australia, and New Zealand. Low fertility countries from other geographical regions were omitted due to the lack of countries with similar sociocultural contexts available for comparison purposes. Low-fertility countries with population under 300,000 were also not considered. Data coverage, quality, and availability; the measurement of fertility; and comparability problems both across countries and through time are discussed in the first chapter. Patterns of fertility decline are then presented with consideration given to period, cohort, overall, and adolescent fertility; population reproduction; age at child-bearing; number of births; birth order, and births by legitimacy status. A scenario of societal process is then hypothesized which may have favored or conditioned changes in reproductive values and modified the proximate determinants of fertility. Specifically, attention is given to demographic conditions, technological progress and economic development, the role and status of women, effects on couples and families, changing reproductive norms, marriage, divorce, contraception, abortion, diversity of conditions, and fertility policies. Analysis reveals a sharp fertility decline from 1965 to the mid-1980s followed by a stabilization of period fertility in some countries and upward fluctuations in several. This decline has affected in all groups, with greatest reductions at age 35 and over, and has been led by the greater practice of contraception and changing societal attitudes on marriage and reproduction. UN medium-variant projections foresee the population of more developed regions increasing by 12% over 1990-2025 versus 75% in less developed regions. Population aging should also be expected. Social and immigration policy are finally discussed in the context of these population trends.
[Latin America. Regional Seminar on Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys. Proceedings. November 8-13, 1981] America Latina. Seminario Regional sobre las Encuestas de Prevalencia del Uso de Anticonceptivos. Actas. Noviembre 8-13 de 1981.
Columbia, Maryland, Westinghouse Health Systems, 1981. 65 p. (Las Encuestas de Prevalencia del Uso de Anticonceptivos II)This report of the proceedings of the Regional Seminar on Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys (CPSs) in Latin America, held in Lima, Peru, in November 1981, includes the schedule of events; list of participants; opening discourses and presentations by the sponsors, Westinghouse Health Systems and the US Agency for International Development; country reports for Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico; and brief summaries of the work sessions on data evaluation, cooperation between the technical survey staff and the program administrators who will use the findings, survey planning, questionnaire design, fieldwork, the phases of CPS work, data processing, sampling, use of CPS data, graphic presentation of findings, and determination of unsatisfied demand for family planning services. Representatives of 17 countries and 8 international organizations attended the conference, whose main objectives were to introduce the CPS program to participants unfamiliar with it, contribute to improvement of future surveys by sharing experiences and introducing new techniques of investigation, discuss the application of CPS findings, and encourage dialogue between the technical personnel involved in conducting the surveys and the administrators of programs utilizing the results. The introduction to the CPS program by Westinghouse Health Systems covered the goals and objectives of the program, its organization and implementation, dissemination of results, basic characteristics of the survey, the status of CPS surveys in Latin America and a list of countries participating in the program, and a brief overview of contraceptive use by married women aged 15-44 by method in countries for which results were available. The country reports detailed experiences in survey design, fieldwork methodology, organization and administration of the surveys, and other aspects, as well as highlighting some of the principal findings.
Population growth problem in developing countries: coordinated assistance essential: report to the Congress.
Washington, D.C., U.S. General Accounting Office, 1978 Dec 20. 101 p.Because rapid population growth in developing countries impedes efforts to improve the quality of life, the General Accounting Office (GAO) recommends that AID work with other national and international agencies, private and voluntary organizations, to improve the coordination of population assistance to developing countries. The magnitude of the population problem, and the increasing number of developing countries establishing population programs and seeking assistance combine to make effective coordination essential, to ensure that funds are applied to the highest priorities, that country programs are as efficient as possible, and that opportunities to reduce costs are identified and taken. The report is divided into 7 sections: 1) importance of coordination: views of major donors providing population assistance (AID, UNFPA, World Bank); 2) nongovernmental organizations providing population assistance and their views on coordination: Asia Foundation; Association for Voluntary Sterilization; Family Planning International Assistance; Ford Foundation; IPPF; Pathfinder Fund; Population Council; Population Services International; World Education; World Neighbors; 3) systems, arrangements, and other coordination efforts of the World Bank, UNFPA, and AID; 4) salient features or coordination systems observed in countries visited by GAO: long-range strategy; leadership; division of program responsibility (Bangladesh; Thailand; Nigeria; Tanzania; Costa Rica; Jamaica); 5) interaction among participants in countries visited; 6) division of program responsibility and specialization by organizations involved in providing population assistance; and 7) conclusions and recommendations. Appendices include: 1) comments on the draft report by AID and the Dept. of State; 2) AID population program assistance by major organizations 1965-1979; 3) assistance for population activities by major donors 1971-1976; and 4) socioeconomic data on the countries visited.
Jakarta, Indonesia, National Family Planning Coordinating Board [BKKBN], 2000. 13 p. (Technical Report Series Monograph No. 98)This paper quantifies the effects of certain demographic factors in fertility decline in Indonesia during the periods of 1971-80, 1980-90, and 1990-97. Using the UN standardization approach, the role of the three main demographic components such as the age structure; marital status; and marital fertility is assessed in the decline of the crude birth rate and general fertility rate. Specific age groups are also identified that are responsible for individual contributions of each of the above factors to the decline in fertility. Overall, the findings revealed that among the three components considered, marital fertility seemed to play the most important role in fertility decline during that period. The marital status component contributed less than marital fertility, while age structure had an offsetting effect on the decline in fertility, except for the period 1990-97, in which the age structure was the second biggest contributor. The biggest contribution of marital fertility came from the age groups 20-24 and 25-29, which may reflect the postponement of age at first marriage.
New York, New York, United Nations, 2001. 19 p. (Statistical Papers Series A Vol. LIII, No. 2; ST/ESA/STAT/SER.A/217)This issue of the "Population and Vital Statistics Report" presents 1999 and 2000 estimates of world and continental population, as well as corresponding 1999 estimates for 229 countries or areas of the world. It shows the results of the existing nationwide census of population (total, male, and female) for each country or area, and nationally representative statistics of live births, deaths, and infant deaths (deaths under 1 year of age) for the most recent year available. Countries or areas are arranged in alphabetical order within continents. The estimates, prepared by the Population Division of the UN Secretariat, are published in World Prospects 1998. The aggregates do not coincide exactly with the sum of the figures for individual countries or areas because they include adjustments for overenumeration and underenumeration, or overestimation and underestimation, and data for categories of population not regularly included in the official figures.
[Unpublished] 1999. Presented at the United Nations Commission on Population and Development, Thirty-second session, New York, New York, March 22-31, 1999  p.This is a statement concerning the "Report in world population and monitoring," by the representative of Ukraine at the Thirty-second session of the UN Commission on population and development, March 1999. The general social and economic situation in the Ukraine--particularly the consequences of last year's financial crisis--continues to have a negative impact on the development of basic demographic trends and population reproduction (population has been declining at an annual rate of almost 0.4 million). Reasons for population decrease include the following: (a) falling birth rate, (b) death (morbidity and mortality) due to the change in social and economic relationships, and (c) infectious diseases. The social and demographic situation in Ukraine is marked by the following trends: a progressive aging of the population and a worsening of the nation's general health. In response to these trends, the government of the Ukraine has implemented an Action Plan aimed at improving the country's demographic situation.
In: The Fourteenth Asian Parliamentarians' Meeting on Population and Development, April 4-5 1998, New Delhi, India, [compiled by] Asian Population and Development Association. [Tokyo, Japan], Asian Population and Development Association, 1998. 37-41.The population trends in Asia are examined in the context of the International Conference on Population and Development. Asia, home to over 61% of the world population, plays an important role on issues regarding population and sustainable development. High fertility rates remain a concern among countries in South-Central Asia. On the other end, Eastern Asia is doing well in terms of the demographic situation and the population and development situation. The eastern region of Asia has already met goals for total fertility and infant mortality rates set during the Cairo conference. All over Asia, there is an evident effort to achieve the demographic goals from the Cairo conference. However, more aggressive efforts among countries in Asia need to be seen in terms of gender equality and the issue of the empowerment of women. Political commitments toward these goals need to be translated for the benefit of women in Asia. One urgent issue is the high maternal mortality rate in countries such as India. Public health needs to address women's health issues as a rights issue. In many Asian countries, there is no effective lobby for women problems. There is a low female literacy rate across Asia. Population efforts in Asia need to address not only the large demographic issues but also the issues of women, reproductive health, and choices.
[Unpublished] 1992.  p.This report presents the 1992 revision of the UN world population projections to 2025 for its high, medium, and low variants and supplemental statistical data (fertility, infant death, birth, death rates; life expectancy; and dependency ratio. Data is tabulated for each of 240 countries of the world, regional totals, and world totals. Statistics are provided quinquennially during 1960-95 with projections quinquennially during 2000-25. Statistics give population size and annual rate of change.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1996. x, 1131 p. (ST/ESA/STAT/SER.R/25)The Demographic Yearbook for 1994 presents comprehensive statistical tables of demography encompassing: population, vital statistics, infant mortality, maternal mortality, mortality, natality, nuptiality, divorce, and economic characteristics for 233 countries throughout the world. The special topic in this 1994 issue focuses on economic characteristics. Data available during 1986-95 include population by sex, population by age and sex, live births by sex, live births by age of the mother and sex of the child, deaths by sex, deaths by age and sex, expectation of life at exact ages by sex, infant deaths by sex, marriages, and divorces. Marriage by age of the groom and the bride is provided for the latest available year. Economic characteristics during 1985-94 include the participation rates of the economically active population by sex, age, and urban/rural residence; inactivity by functional group and sex, age, and urban/rural residence; industry, age, sex, and urban/rural residence for economically active persons; occupation as per industry table; employment or unemployment status by age, sex, and urban/rural residence; employment status and industry, sex, and urban/rural residence; and employment status and occupation, sex, and urban/rural residence. This issue presents special tables on the female economically active population by marital status, age, and urban/rural residence; and the economically active foreign born by occupation, age, and sex.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1997. x, 1087 p. (ST/ESA/STAT/SER.R/26)The Demographic Yearbook for 1995 presents comprehensive statistical tables of demography encompassing: population, vital statistics, infant mortality, maternal mortality, mortality, natality, nuptiality, divorce, and household characteristics for 233 countries throughout the world. The special topic in this 1995 issue focuses on household characteristics as updates from the 1987 issue. Data available during 1986-95 include population by sex, population by age and sex, live births by sex, live births by age of the mother and sex of the child, deaths by sex, deaths by age and sex, expectation of life at exact ages by sex, infant deaths by sex, marriages, and divorces. Marriage by age of the groom and the bride is provided for the latest available year. Household data from the census during 1985-95 pertain to household size and urban/rural residence, living arrangements by age and sex and by urban/rural residence, population by age and sex and by urban/rural residence, household by age and sex of householder and by urban/rural residence, and headship rates by age and sex of householder and by urban/rural residence. More detailed tables provide data on households by age and sex, by marital status, and by urban/rural residence; household size and relationship to head; and size and type of household.
New York, New York, UNICEF, 1992 Jun.  p.This compendium provides statistical profiles for 136 UNICEF countries on the status of children. Statistics pertain to basic population, infant and child mortality, and gross national product data; child survival and development; nutrition; health; education; demography; and economics. Official government sources are used whenever possible. The nine major sources include the UN Statistical Office, UNICEF, the UN Population Division, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Health Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, the World Bank, Demographic and Health Surveys, and UNESCO. Statistics rely on internationally standardized estimates, and whenever standardized estimates were unavailable, UNICEF field office data were used. Some statistics may be more reliable than others. Countries are divided into four groups for under-five mortality: very high (140 deaths per 1000 live births); high (71-140/1000); middle (21-70/1000); and low (20/1000 and under). The median value is the preferred figure, but the mean is used if the range in data is not extensive. Data are footnoted by definitions, sources, explanations of signs, and individual notation where figures are different from the general definition being used. Comprehensive and representative data are used where possible. Data should not be used to delineate small differences. Countries with very high child mortality include Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, India, Laos, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, and Yemen.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1996. , 19 p. (Statistical Papers Series A Vol. 48, No. 3; ST/ESA/STAT/SER.A/198)This issue of the UN Population and Vital Statistics Report presents country-specific birth, death, and population statistics for 233 countries of the world for 1995 and 1996. Data were estimated based on the most current information available from censuses, surveys, and other records. The data are identified by the nature of the base data, the recency of the base data, the method of time adjustment, and the quality of adjustment by type of data. Population figures are given for total, male, and female population and mid-1995 base estimates. Births, infant deaths, and deaths are given for estimated rate, actual rate, and actual number. The world estimates of population were 5.716 billion in 1995 and 5.804 billion in 1996. 1995 regional population estimates include 728 million in Africa, 455 million in North America, 320 million in South America, 3.458 billion in Asia, 727 million in Europe, and 29 million in Oceania. 1996 regional population estimates include an increase to 748 million in Africa, an increase to 462 million in North America, an increase to 325 million in South America, an increase to 3.513 billion in Asia, and a stabilization at 728 million in Europe and 29 million in Oceania.
Liege, Belgium, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP], 1994. 17 p. (Distinguished Lecture Series on Population and Development)This lecture on updated trends in the world fertility transition was presented in preparation for the Cairo Conference in 1994. Modernization upsets the biological balance of natural fertility and mortality. There is little evidence of significant levels of deliberate birth control in traditional societies. Pre-modern Europe used delayed marriage, no marriage, and discouragement of widow remarriage as constraints on fertility, which were driven by the concept of the proper time to marry and not conscious population planning. Fertility was not consciously controlled, because mortality slowed or stopped population growth, and children were valued as an economic asset. The first major fertility decline began in France and appeared in Europe during the late eighteenth century. Decline occurred without the approval of governments. Diffusion theory, regardless of the debate about what was diffused, has received support. During this period, social changes were occurring. First, the risk of childhood mortality in these countries was declining and had been declining for centuries. Second, knowledge about fertility control was gleaned over long periods of time, sometimes up to 100 years. By the 1950s almost every Western European country had a fertility rate lower than 3, and some countries were at replacement level. Third World countries in the beginning of the 1900s experienced changes in public health measures, which were influential in bringing down death rates. The effect of mortality changes on rapid fertility growth became evident during the 1950s. Fertility patterns did not change markedly until 1965-75 among some countries in Latin America and Asia and in some Pacific Island countries. The declines during the 1960s and 1970s increased and were initiated by technological breakthroughs in fertility control methods. The determinants of this period of fertility decline varied. The impact of socioeconomic change and availability of family planning varied by country. Social changes were reflective of global changes. Fertility declined due to the shift away from an agrarian-based, subsistence society and toward a global society that restricted family size. The shift involved deliberate organization and expenditure and social changes.
New York, New York, United Nations, Dept. for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Population Division, 1994 Aug.  p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/142)This wall chart tabulates data from the medium variant of the UN population estimates and projections as revised in 1994. Figures are given for the world as a whole and for more developed, less developed, and least developed areas. Data are also provided for regions and for individual countries within those regions. The mid-year population is shown in thousands for 1994, 2015, and 2050. Figures are then detailed for percentage annual growth rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate, total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth, and infant mortality rate for 1990-95. Age distribution (under age 15 years and 65 years or older) and density data are also provided for mid-1994. In addition to the main table, a listing is given of the 10 largest countries in 1994, and bar graphs show world population in millions for 1950-2050 as well as the average annual increase in millions for 1950-2050.
Europe and Central Asia Region, Middle East and North Africa Region, population projections, 1992-93 edition.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., 1992 Nov. xcv, 203 p. (Policy Research Working Papers WPS 1016)Statistical information and a summary introduction were provided for Eastern Europe and Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, and North African regions for selected demographic and economic measures. Measures included income, birth and death rates, fertility rates, rate of natural increase, net migration rate, growth rate, infant mortality rate, dependency ratio, and population projections to 2150. Detailed age and sex distributions were also provided. Both World Bank and nonborrower countries were included. The figures were updated from the 1990-91 Edition. The summary described and discussed recent demographic trends and future projections, and reviewed countries and regions by income level. Noteworthy changes by country were indicated. World Bank borrower countries were divided into the following regions: sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, which were regrouped into 4-6 country departments and into 4 income groups. The largest population was in East Asia and the Pacific with 30% of world population. Other large regions included South Asia with 21%, Africa with 10%, Europe and Central Asia with 9%, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8%, and the Middle East and North Africa with 5%. Country departments reflected the regions as a whole, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa with growth rates of 32.% to 2.8%. East Africa had the highest rates and Sahelian and South African countries the lowest rates. The Middle Eastern countries had rates of 3.0% in contrast to North African countries rates of 2.7%. Diversity was greatest in Asian departments. Rates were 2.0-2.6% in South Asia and 1.9-1.4% in East Asian and Pacific departments. The lowest rates were in European and Central Asian departments. In 1992, less developed countries comprised 77% of the world population. The projections indicated that by 2150 the population would reach 12.2 billion, of which 88% would live in developing countries. The 1992 projections differed from 1990-91's in that the projections were revised downward due to AIDS mortality. World fertility was projected to decline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by 2000 and 2.4 by 2025. Life expectancy was expected to reach 70 years in about 2010. The proportion aged would rise in more developed countries.
Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1990. lxxiii, 421 p.The World Bank's Population and Human Resources Department regularly publishes a set of world population projections based on its data files. This 1989-90 report has projections for the world and for regions, income groups of countries, and 187 countries. World Bank staff made projections to the point where populations reach stability. In almost all cases, they made only 1 projection. Projection tables for 1985-2030 exist for each country's population. Each country also has tables on birth rate, death rate, net migration, natural increase, population growth, total fertility rate, life expectancy, infant mortality rate, and dependency ratio. The report shows that from 1985-90 population growth was 1.74%, and projected 1990 world population size was 5.3 billion. By 2025, 84.1% of the world's population will be living in developing countries. 58% of the population now lives in Asia. The population of Africa is growing faster than that of Asia, however, (3 vs. 1.9%). By 2000, the population of Africa will be second only to that of Asia, yet in 1989-1990, it is behind that of Asia, Europe and the USSR, and the Americas. The current dependency ratio (67) is expected to decline to 53 by 2025. The highest current dependency ratio belongs to Kenya (120). In developed countries with aging populations, the dependency ratio will rise from 50-58. China will most likely to continue to be the most populous country for about 200 years. India will continue to contribute more to population growth than any other country in the world. Yet the Federal Republic of Germany loses 100,000 people yearly. Total fertility rates are the greatest in Rwanda, the Yemen Arab Republic, Kenya, Malawi, and the Ivory Coast (all >7.2). Afghanistan and 3 western African countries have the shortest life expectancies (about 40 years). These trends illustrate the need to alter population growth.
In: The population debate: dimensions and perspectives. Papers of the World Population Conference, Bucharest, 1974. Volume I. New York, New York, United Nations, 1975. 573-97. (Population Studies, No. 57; ST/ESA/SER.A/57)WHO presented a discussion on health trends and prospects in relation to population and development at the World Population Conference in Bucharest, Romania, in 1974. Even though many countries did not have available detailed results of 1970 population censuses, WHO was able to determine using the limited available data that both developing and developed countries could still make substantial reductions in death rates. This room for improvement was especially great for developing countries. Infectious diseases predominated as the cause of death in developing countries, while chronic diseases and accidents predominated in developed countries. Life expectancy at birth in developing countries was lower than that in developed countries (48.3-60.3 years vs. 70 years). Any life expectancy gains were likely to be slower after 1970 than during the 1950-1970 period. WHO claimed that by 2000 almost all of the population in developing and developed countries could reach a life expectancy of 60-65 years and 75-80 years, respectively. WHO stressed the complex interactions among population growth, health, and socioeconomic development. Specifically, an improved health status for both individuals and communities would promote socioeconomic development which in turn appeared to reduce natural increase. Some experts have expressed concern that investment in health services spurs population growth because they reduce mortality. Yet the child survival hypothesis indicated that a reduced infant mortality precedes increased demand for family planning methods and subsequent fertility decline. WHO concurred with the hypothesis and advocated that primary health services and family planning are critical to socioeconomic development. Indeed, family planning services should be integrated with maternal and child health services.
NEW YORK TIMES. 1992 May 10; 4.English demographer Thomas Malthus argued that poverty and famine would control population. Accordingly, demographers expected famine to ravage populations of developing countries in the 1950s. Instead, revolutionary increases in the capacity to produce food were achieved, thereby allowing cultivated lands to support a doubling of the population to 5 billion by 1990. This green revolution largely eradicated endemic famine in Asia and Africa. Crop yields are now, however, increasing more slowly or declining in many areas of the developing world. Lack of water, deteriorating soil, and urban encroachment have forced farmers to scale back cultivation. Pessimists hold that we are nearing the maximum carrying capacity of the Earth and that the world cannot support another doubling of population. In contrast, others note that only few areas in the world are producing close to their theoretical capacities. Either way, large families may not be able to afford food when and if the second green revolution takes place. Developing country governments must try to both increase agricultural productivity within environmentally sustainable limits and help the rural poor to increase their incomes. Recognizing the need to reduce family size and population growth, the UN is launching a decade-long crash family planning program. If this effort fails, current 5.4 billion population may reach 10 billion by 2050 and level out at 11.5 billion after 2150. 97% of this growth is expected in developing countries.