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Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], 2003 Mar.  p.The newly released 2002 revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects shows that, by the year 2050, 75 percent of all countries in the less developed regions of the world will experience below-replacement fertility — that is, a fertility rate lower than 2.1 children per woman. This estimate is the UN's medium variant and highlights a lower world population in 2050 than the UN's 2000 Revision did: 8.9 billion instead of 9.3 billion. About half of the 400 million difference in these projected populations results from an increase in the number of projected deaths, the majority stemming from higher projected levels of HIV prevalence. The other half of the difference reflects a reduction in the projected number of births, primarily as a result of lower expected future fertility levels. World population, now at 6.3 billion, is growing at a rate of 1.2 percent annually, meaning an additional 77 million people each year. This is considerably slower than the peak annual growth rate of over 2 percent, reached in the early 1970s. (excerpt)
New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2002 Mar 11.  p.This paper reviews the status of the fertility transition and the processes that have led to the nearly universal reductions of fertility achieved so far. The state of current knowledge, buttressed by the actual experience of a growing number of countries, suggests that lengthy periods of below-replacement fertility are likely to be common in the future. Revised guidelines for the United Nations 2002 Revision for the projection of fertility in today’s intermediate-fertility countries are proposed based on the recognition that replacement-level fertility is not necessarily hard-wired in the evolution of populations. The proposed guidelines imply that, under the medium variant, approximately 80 per cent of the world population will be projected to have below-replacement fertility before mid-century. (author's)
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1999; (40-41):i-xii, 1-348.During November 4-6, 1997, the UN Population Division organized the Expert Group Meeting on Below-Replacement Fertility at UN Headquarters in New York, in response to the issue that by 2015 the world's population is likely to reach 7.3 billion, with two-thirds of the population living in 88 countries at or below replacement-level fertility. The purpose of the meeting was to obtain the advice of experts on how fertility levels might evolve in countries such as eastern and southeastern Asia, and the European and other developed countries that exhibit fertility below replacement-level fertility. This book contains the collected set of papers presented at the Expert Group Meeting. The papers examined the existing fertility, future expectations for fertility, consequences of sustained below-replacement fertility, and policy and program options. The sessions of the meeting were organized by the themes mentioned above, which were supported by a background paper, which reviewed the issues concerning the theme of the session. In addition to the background papers, country papers were prepared by experts, which reviewed the above topics as they applied to their countries. Participants and papers came from China, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Russian Federation, Sweden, and the US. Part I of the book is divided into three parts, the report of the meeting, discussion surrounding each agenda item, and the conclusions reached. The background papers are presented in part II and the country papers in part III.
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 2000 Jun; 26(2):413-7.This article is a reprint of the executive summary of the UN Population Division report entitled "Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Population?" The UN report computed the size of replacement migration and investigated the possible effects of replacement migration on the population size and age structure for eight countries and two regions that have a common fertility pattern of below the replacement level for the period 1995-2050. Major findings revealed that, the populations of most developed countries are projected to become smaller and older as a result of below-replacement fertility and increased longevity. In the absence of migration, these declines in population size will be even greater than projected. Therefore, the challenges being brought about by the decline and aging population will require objective, thorough, and comprehensive reassessments of many established economic, social and political policies and programs, in particular the replacement migration.