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Revue Tiers Monde. 1983 Apr-Jun; 24(94):305-24.This article discusses methodologies for arriving at population projections and predictions and their limitations, and presents short-term predictions for 1980-2000, longterm projections for 2000-2025, and very longterm projections for 2025-2100, which are highly speculative. The UN population projections for 210 countries and territories are provided by age and sex and by rural or urban status. The UN projections are prepared in 3 phases: 1) analysis of the quality of the basic data in different regions; 2) development of hypotheses concerning the evolution of fertility, mortality, and migration; and 3) separate projection of each component of growth. 4 variants, the medium, high, low, and constant fertility versions are usually prepared, of which the medium projection is considered most likely and that of constant fertility is included only for comparisons. The world crude reproduction rate fell from 2.41 in 1950 to 1.96 in 1975-80, and is expected to fall to 1.34 during 2000-2010 and to almost unity in the mid 21st century. Only Africa and Latin America are expected to have crude reproduction rates above replacement level in 2025. According to the medium projection, the world population will each 6.2 billion in 2000 and 10.4 billion in 2075, when it will be nearly stationary. Future growth in already developed countries will be minimal, but Third World countries, which had a population of 1.7 billion in 1950 and 3.3 billion in 1980, will have nearly 5 billion by 2000 and will stabilize at about 9.1 billion, representing 87% of total world population. About 40% will live in South Asia. The population in 2075 will be 1.2 billion in Latin America, 2.2 billion in Africa, and 1.7 billion in East Asia. The age structure of the future population will undergo considerable aging and the trend toward urbanization will accelerate.
[Unpublished] 1983. Presented at the International Conference on Population, 1984, Expert Group on Fertility and Family, New Delhi, January 5-11, 1983. 22 p. (IESA/P/ICP. 1984/EG.I/8)The World Health Organization (WHO) has been studying several national surveys with regard to certain health related aspects of fertility. The primary purpose of these studies was to stimulate the use of data by the national health authorities for an improved care system for maternal and child health, including family planning. Some preliminary results are reported in this discussion, in particular those relating to contraception, the reproductive health of adolescents, infertility and subfecundity, and breastfeeding. The national surveys concerned are those of Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. The methods of analysis were simple and traditional, except for 2 points: some of the data had to be obtained by additional tabulation of the raw data tapes and/or the recode tapes since the standard tabulations of the First Country Reports did not include the needed information; and Correspondence Analysis was used in an effort to stimulate and facilitate the use of the findings for improvements of national health programs. Methods of contraception vary widely, from 1 country to another and by age, parity, and socioeconomic grouping. The younger women tend to choose more effective modern methods, such as oral contraception (OC); the older women, i.e., those over age 35, tend to seek sterilization, if available. It is evident that the historical development of family planning methods has greatly influenced the current "mix" of methods and so has the current supply situation and the capacity of the health care system (particularly in regard to IUD insertions and sterilizations. Use of contraception among adolescents to postpone the 1st birth was practically unknown. The risk of complications at pregnancy and childbirth, including maternal and infant death, is known to be particularly high for young mothers, and the results clearly showed that the infant mortality rate is highest for the youngest mothers. All the women who suffer from infertility do not recognize their condition, but the limited data still point to the need to consider the health needs of women who suffer from unwanted fecundity impairments. This may require medical intervention to cure infections or the offer of relevant sexual counseling. Some infecundity may require the improvement of nutritional and personal hygienic levels before meaningful achievements are made. The prevalence of breastfeeding has declined in some population groups, and the consequences can be expected to be deleterious and to involve serious increases in specific morbidity and mortality.
In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Modelling economic and demographic development. New York, United Nations, 1983. 117-223. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 54)This study uses a longterm demographic-economic model to analyze the effects of the rapid aging of the Japanese population on various aspects of the economy and government programs. It is assumed that the quantitative analysis of the interrelationships between age-structural changes and the socioeconomic system provides a useful basis for Japanese government planners to formulate policy measures to cope with problems arising in connection with an aging population. The study draws on population, economic, and social security submodels in a series of simulation experiments. In the Standard Case, the total fertility rate falls due to economic progress and the rising age at 1st marriage, mortality improves as a result of increased per capita medical expenditures, and population grows at a diminishing rate after peaking at 131.3 million in 2007. The model further projects an increase in the percentage of the population age 65 years and over from 9.1% in 1980 to 23.9% in 2021 and a corresponding decrease in the population ages 15-64 years from 67.4% to 61.8%, Per capita real GNP is projected to continue to rise in the 1980-2025 period. However, the decreasing growth rate of the labor force, increasing financial resources for social security programs, and decline in the average hours worked by those in the labor force are expected to produce an economic slow-down, particularly in the early part of the 21st century. 5 policy measures are proposed to cope with this lowered rate of economic growth: 1) acceleration of the speed of technological progress to compensate for the shortage of young workers; 2) extension of retirement age to ease financial pressures on public pension schemes and retain the economic contributions of aged workers; 3) updating of the skills of aged workers through government vocational retraining programs; 4) the modification of public pension schemes to make benefit provision more selective, and adjustment of the amount of benefits paid out by extending the pensionable age for each scheme; and 5) review of the effectiveness and efficiency of various public medical plans, with attention to unnecessary use of medical services and improvement of preventive interventions.
Population trends and issues, statement made at the Meeting of the Netherlands Association of Demographers, The Hague, Netherlands, 14 September, 1983.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 7 p. (Speech Series No. 97)If world population is to stabilize by the end of the next century, it will be necessary to strengthen and sustain the downward trend in fertility already begun in most developing countries. Whatever reductions have been achieved in the rate of population growth are the result of fertility declines accompanied by moderate reduction in mortality. Added to the challenge of high birth, mortality and growth rates in some parts of the developing world, a number of issues of equal importance have emerged since the United Nations World Population Conference held in Bucharest in 1974. There are, for example, issues relating to aging, international and local migration, including urbanization, and the interrelationships between population, resources, the environment and development. Most of these problems have national as well as international dimensions. The Government of the Netherlands has taken important steps to alleviate some of these problems. For example, it considers that social and economic policy should constantly take in requirements resulting from changes in the age structure of the population. The Government has been a major donor to the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) since its inception and has contributed nearly US$105 million in 14 years.
Population--common problems, common interests, statement made at Regional Meeting on Population of the Economic Commission for Europe, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6 October, 1983.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 8 p. (Speech Series No. 100)This statement outlines in brief present trends in world population growth. Although population growth is declining, it will nevertheless take more than a century for population to stabilize and this poses major problems which will all be discussed at the International Conference on Population in 1984. Discussions at the Conference will center on 4 topics: 1) fertility and the family--this includes among other issues, the issue of the elderly, and family size; 2) distribution and migration; 3) resources and the environment; and, 4) health and mortality.