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AIDS. 2008 Jul; 22 Suppl 1:S51-7.Because full funding for HIV/AIDS prevention interventions is unlikely to occur in the near future, it is essential that the resources available are spent in the most effective way possible. This paper presents a matrix of effectiveness coefficients for HIV/AIDS-related prevention interventions that can be used as an integral part of the coordinated strategic planning process currently underway by the World Bank and UNAIDS, as the interventions in the matrix are harmonized with the interventions in that process. Coefficients for four types of sexual behavior change (condom use, partner reduction, sexually transmitted infection treatment-seeking behavior, age at first sex) across three different risk groups (high, medium, low) are presented, along with their interquartile ranges. Results indicate that: (1) impacts seem greater when an intervention includes interpersonal contact, rather than targeting a more general audience; (2) although significant impacts are observed in the columns measuring changing condom use, other impacts are lower, and sometimes are actually (measured) zero; and (3) additional studies have evaluations of the number of sexual partners and have found a greater impact than previous studies. Although progress has been made in increasing the number of evaluation studies that can be utilized in this impact matrix, particularly in the area of youth interventions, there are still empty cells in which no studies report impacts. Finally, it is important to note that issues such as quality differences and synergies between programmes could have an effect on the impacts calculated for a particular strategic plan.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Human Development Department, 2007 Oct. 55 p. (Policy Research Working Paper No. 4377)A new literature on the nature of and policies for youth in Latin America is emerging, but there is still very little known about who are the most vulnerable young people. This paper aims to characterize the heterogeneity in the youth population and identify ex ante the youth that are at-risk and should be targeted with prevention programs. Using non-parametric methodologies and specialized youth surveys from Mexico and Chile, the authors quantify and characterize the different subgroups of youth, according to the amount of risk in their lives, and find that approximately 20 percent of 18 to 24 year old Chileans and 40 percent of the same age cohort in Mexico are suffering the consequences of a range of negative behaviors. Another 8 to 20 percent demonstrate factors in their lives that pre-dispose them to becoming at-risk youth - they are the candidates for prevention programs. The analysis finds two observable variables that can be used to identify which children have a higher probability of becoming troubled youth: poverty and residing in rural areas. The analysis also finds that risky behaviors increase with age and differ by gender, thereby highlighting the need for program and policy differentiation along these two demographic dimensions. (author's)
Deaths and disease burden by cause: global burden of disease estimates for 2001 by World Bank country groups. Revised.
[Washington, D.C.], World Bank, Disease Control Priorities Project, 2005 Jan.  p. (Disease Control Priorities Project Working Paper No. 18)The World Health Organization has undertaken a new assessment of the GBD for the year 2000 and subsequent years. The three goals articulated for the GBD 1990 (8) remain central: to decouple epidemiological assessment of the magnitude of health problems from advocacy by interest groups of particular health policies or interventions; to include in international health policy debates information on non-fatal health outcomes along with information on mortality; and to undertake the quantification of health problems in time-based units that can also be used in economic appraisal. The specific objectives for GBD 2000 are similar to the original objectives: to quantify the burden of premature mortality and disability by age, sex, and region for 135 major causes or groups of causes; to develop internally consistent estimates of the incidence, prevalence, duration, and case-fatality for over 500 sequelae resulting from the above causes; to describe and value the health states associated with these sequelaeof diseases and injuries; to analyze the contribution to this burden of major physiological, behavioral, and social risk factors by age, sex and region; to develop alternative projection scenarios of mortality and non-fatal health outcomes over the next 30 years, disaggregated by cause, age, sex and region. (excerpt)
Europe and Central Asia Region, Middle East and North Africa Region, population projections, 1992-93 edition.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., 1992 Nov. xcv, 203 p. (Policy Research Working Papers WPS 1016)Statistical information and a summary introduction were provided for Eastern Europe and Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, and North African regions for selected demographic and economic measures. Measures included income, birth and death rates, fertility rates, rate of natural increase, net migration rate, growth rate, infant mortality rate, dependency ratio, and population projections to 2150. Detailed age and sex distributions were also provided. Both World Bank and nonborrower countries were included. The figures were updated from the 1990-91 Edition. The summary described and discussed recent demographic trends and future projections, and reviewed countries and regions by income level. Noteworthy changes by country were indicated. World Bank borrower countries were divided into the following regions: sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, which were regrouped into 4-6 country departments and into 4 income groups. The largest population was in East Asia and the Pacific with 30% of world population. Other large regions included South Asia with 21%, Africa with 10%, Europe and Central Asia with 9%, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8%, and the Middle East and North Africa with 5%. Country departments reflected the regions as a whole, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa with growth rates of 32.% to 2.8%. East Africa had the highest rates and Sahelian and South African countries the lowest rates. The Middle Eastern countries had rates of 3.0% in contrast to North African countries rates of 2.7%. Diversity was greatest in Asian departments. Rates were 2.0-2.6% in South Asia and 1.9-1.4% in East Asian and Pacific departments. The lowest rates were in European and Central Asian departments. In 1992, less developed countries comprised 77% of the world population. The projections indicated that by 2150 the population would reach 12.2 billion, of which 88% would live in developing countries. The 1992 projections differed from 1990-91's in that the projections were revised downward due to AIDS mortality. World fertility was projected to decline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by 2000 and 2.4 by 2025. Life expectancy was expected to reach 70 years in about 2010. The proportion aged would rise in more developed countries.
World population projections, 1992-93 edition. Estimates and projections with related demographic statistics.
Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1992. vii, 515 p.Statistical tales provided population projections every 5 years between 1985 and 2030 and every 25 years between 1985 and 2150. Data were also given for the birth, death, natural increase, net migration, growth, fertility, net reproduction, and infant mortality rates. The projections were an update of this series in 1990, and take into account the impact of AIDS; other changes included the inclusion of the 15 countries of the former Soviet Union, the combined Germanys and Yemens, and the former Yugoslavian republics of Croatia and Slovenia. The overview of trends and projections indicated that Southeast Asia and Latin America have had rapid mortality and fertility decline, while most sub-Saharan African and Middle Eastern countries have had little change. Population growth for mid-1992 was estimated to be 5.44 billion. the projection for the year 2000 was 6.17 billion, which was a 12% increase over 1992 figures. 8.34 billion was the expected population for 2025, and 12.2 billion for 2050, of which 88% would be in countries currently defined as developing. The difference between these projections and those previously published in the 1989-90 edition was minimal for more developed countries, and lower for less developed countries due to the impact of AIDS. Population concentration is currently 59% in Asia, 15% in Europe, 14% in America, 12% in Africa, and 1% in Oceania. Changes will occur such that Africa's population will double, Europe's will be halved, and Asia's will remain stable. The fastest growing region in Africa in East Africa, followed by West Africa and then North Africa in 1992. The lowest growth rates in 1992 are in Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union. Without China and India, the highest growth rates are found among low income countries. Upper income countries have only 10% of total world population. The population under 15 years of age is expected to decrease from 32% in 1992 to 25% in 2025; conversely, the elderly population aged 65 years and older is expected to increase from 6% in 1992 to 10% in 2025. Life expectancy is highest in Japan at 79 years and lowest in Guinea-Bissau at 39 years. The largest difference in life expectancy between men and women is in the Russian Federation at 10.5 years. There is low fertility, mortality, and slow growth in the Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova; moderate growth in Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan; and mid to high fertility in the other republics.
International Family Planning Perspectives. 1991 Sep; 17(3):108-13.South Asia consisting of Bangladesh, India, Nepal Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, claims 1/5 to total world population with expected population growth of at least 200 million by the year 2000. Taking issue with assumptions behind World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN) population projections for the region, the authors make less optimistic assumptions of country fertility and mortality trends when running population projections for the region. Following discussion of methodological issues for and analysis of population projections, the paper's alternate assumptions and projection results are presented and discussed. Projections were made for each country of the region over the period 1985-2010, based on assumptions that only very modest fertility declines and improvements in life expectancy would develop over most of the 1990s. South Asian population would therefore grow from over 1 billion in 1985, to 1.4 billion by 2000, and almost 1.8 billion by 2010. Overall slower fertility decline than assumed for the UN and WB projections point to larger population growth with momentum for continued, larger growth through the 21st century. Rapid, substantial population growth as envisioned by these projections will impede movement toward an urban-industrial economy, with a burgeoning labor force exceeding the absorptive capacity of the modern sector. Job seekers will pile up in agriculture and the informal sector. Demands upon the government to deliver education and health services will also be extraordinarily high. High-tech niches will, however, continue expanding in India and Pakistan with overall negative social effects. Their low demand for labor will exacerbate income disparities, fuel interpersonal, interclass, and interregional tensions, and only contribute to eventual ethnic, communal, and political conflict. Immediate, coordinated policy is urged to achieve balanced low mortality and low fertility over the next few decades.
An examination of the population structure of Liberia within the framework of the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City Recommendations on Population and Development: policy implications and mechanism.
In: The 1984 International Conference on Population: the Liberian experience, [compiled by] Liberia. Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs. Monrovia, Liberia, Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs, . 111-36.The age and sex composition and distribution of the population of Liberia as affected by fertility, mortality, morbidity, migration, and development are examined within the framework of the Kilimanjaro Program of Action and recommendations of the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City. The data used are projections (1984-85) published in the 2nd Socio-Economic Development Plan, 1980. The population of Liberia is increasing at the rate of 3.5% and will double in 23.1 years. 60% of the population is under 20 and 2% over 75. Projected life expectancy is 55.5 years for women and 53.4 years for men. The population is characterized by high age dependency; 47.1% of the people are under 15 and 2.9% are over 64, so that half of the population consists of dependent age groups, primarily the school-age children (6-11 years). If these children are to enter the labor force, it is estimated that 19,500 jobs will have to be created to employ them. Moreover, fertility remains at its constant high level (3.5%), so, as mortality declines, the economic problem becomes acute. Furthermore, high fertility is accompanied by high infant and maternal mortality. High infant mortality causes couples in rural areas to have more children. These interdependent circumstances point up the need for family planning, more adequate health care delivery systems, and increasing the number of schools to eradicate illiteracy, which is currently at 80%. Integrated planning and development strategies and appropriate allotment of funds must become part of the government's policy if the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City recommendations are to be implemented.
Baltimore, Maryland/London, England, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1988. lvi, 439 p.This is the tenth in a series of population projections prepared by the World Bank and the third to be published separately. The introduction summarizes the methodology and assumptions and also "presents a brief history of the Bank's projections, delineates the sources of the principal data used, compares the Bank's estimates with those of the United Nations and other organizations, and provides summary demographic information on the new country groupings (by World Bank operational region and department) created by the recent reorganization of the Bank." The projections are given by age group and sex for five-year intervals up to the year 2030 for countries and regions. (EXCERPT)
China: long-term development issues and options. The report of a mission sent to China by the World Bank.
Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985. xiii, 183 p. (World Bank Country Economic Report)This report summarizes the conclusions of a World Bank study undertaken in 1984 to identify the key development issues China is expected to face in the next 20 years. Among the areas addressed by chapters in this monograph are agricultural prospects, energy development, spatial issues, international economic strategy, managing industrial technology, human development, mobilizing financial resources, and development management. China's economic prospects are viewed as dependinding upon success in mobilizing and effectively using all available resources, especially people. This in turn will depend on sucess in reforming the system of economic management, including progress in 3 areas: 1) greater use of market regulation to stimulate innovation and efficiency; 2) stronger planning, combining indirect with direct economic control; and 3) modification and extension of social institutions and policies to maintain the fairness in distribution that is basic to socialism in the face of the greater inequality and instability that may result from market regulation and indirect controls. Over the next 2 decades, China can be expected to become a middle-income country. The government has set the goal of quadrupling the gross value of industrial and agricultural output between 1980 and 2000 and increasing per capita income from US$300 to $800. China's size and past emphasis on local self-sufficiency offer opportunities for enormous economic gains through increased specialization and trade among localities. Increased rural-urban migration seems probable and desirable, although an increase in urban services and infrastructure will be required. The expected slow rate of population increase is an important foundation for China's favorable economic growth prospects. On the other hand, it may not be desirable to hold fertility below the replacement level for very long, given the effects this would have on the population's age structure. The increase in the proportion of elderly people will be a serious social issue in the next century, and reforms of the social security system need to be considered.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population, Health and Nutrition Dept., 1982 Oct. 46 p. (PHN Technical Notes RES 3)This paper uses data from the World Bank and UNFPA sponsored survey on the determinants of fertility decline in Sri Lanka. The multivariate analysis shows that whereas the traditionally strong influences on fertility, and hence contraceptive use, such as education, age, and labor force participation still exist among the older women, changes in the nature of delivery of family planning services are making these socioeconomic factors less salient among younger women, as well as among subgroups of older women. (author's)