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Journal of Viral Hepatitis. 2003 Mar; 10(2):141-149.Hepatitis B (HB) is thought to be an expanding health problem in Russia. The incidence of infection was estimated from mandatorily reported HB cases in St Petersburg. The two-sided t-test for independent samples and the LOESS (locally-weighted regression) smoother were used to compare the age at infection for symptomatic, asymptomatic and chronic infections, by gender. The force of infection was estimated from seroprevalence data (907 sera taken in 1999) using a newly developed nonparametric method based on local polynomials, as well as an earlier method based on isotonic regression and kernel smoothers. With the local polynomial method, pointwise confidence intervals (95%) were constructed by bootstrapping. On average, men contracted HB infection at a significantly younger age than women (in 1999, 21.8 vs 22.7 years, respectively). The overall male to female ratio was 1.92. In 1999 the overall incidence almost doubled compared with the preceding years and tripled among the age groups with highest incidence (15–29-year olds: 85% of cases in 1999). The incidence increase was associated with a lower average age at infection (24.1 years in 1994 vs 22.1 years in 1999). The age and gender-specific force of infection estimates generally confirmed the incidence estimates and emphasized the usefulness of local polynomials to do this. Hence HB transmission in St Petersburg occurs mainly in young adults. The dramatic increase of infections in 1999 was probably due to injecting drug use. Without intervention, HB virus is expected to continue to spread rapidly with a greater proportion of female infections caused by sexual transmission. These trends may also provide an indication for HIV transmission. (author's)
The global eradication of smallpox. Final report of the Global Commission for the Certification of Smallpox Eradication, Geneva, December 1979.
Geneva, Switzerland, WHO, 1980. 122 p. (History of International Public Health No. 4)The Global Commission for the Certification of Smallpox Eradication met in December 1978 to review the program in detail and to advise on subsequent activities and met again in December 1979 to assess progress and to make the final recommendations that are presented in this report. Additionally, the report contains a summary account of the history of smallpox, the clinical, epidemiological, and virological features of the disease, the efforts to control and eradicate smallpox prior to 1966, and an account of the intensified program during the 1967-79 period. The report describes the procedures used for the certification of eradication along with the findings of 21 different international commissions that visited and reviewed programs in 61 countries. These findings provide the basis for the Commission's conclusion that the global eradication of smallpox has been achieved. The Commission also concluded that there is no evidence that smallpox will return as an endemic disease. The overall development and coordination of the intensified program were carried out by a smallpox unit established at the World Health Organization (WHO) headquarters in Geneva, which worked closely with WHO staff at regional offices and, through them, with national staff and WHO advisers at the country level. Earlier programs had been based on a mass vaccination strategy. The intensified campaign called for programs designed to vaccinate at least 80% of the population within a 2-3 year period. During this time, reporting systems and surveillance activities were to be developed that would permit detection and elimination of the remaining foci of the disease. Support was sought and obtained from many different governments and agencies. The progression of the eradication program can be divided into 3 phases: the period between 1967-72 when eradication was achieved in most African countries, Indonesia, and South America; the 1973-75 period when major efforts focused on the countries of the Indian subcontinent; and the 1975-77 period when the goal of eradication was realized in the Horn of Africa. Global Commission recommendations for WHO policy in the post-eradication era include: the discontinuation of smallpox vaccination; continuing surveillance of monkey pox in West and Central Africa; supervision of the stocks and use of variola virus in laboratories; a policy of insurance against the return of the disease that includes thorough investigation of reports of suspected smallpox; the maintenance of an international reserve of freeze-dried vaccine under WHO control; and measures designed to ensure that laboratory and epidemiological expertise in human poxvirus infections should not be dissipated.
Population--common problems, common interests, statement made at Regional Meeting on Population of the Economic Commission for Europe, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6 October, 1983.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 8 p. (Speech Series No. 100)This statement outlines in brief present trends in world population growth. Although population growth is declining, it will nevertheless take more than a century for population to stabilize and this poses major problems which will all be discussed at the International Conference on Population in 1984. Discussions at the Conference will center on 4 topics: 1) fertility and the family--this includes among other issues, the issue of the elderly, and family size; 2) distribution and migration; 3) resources and the environment; and, 4) health and mortality.