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Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, 1988. 1 p.This sheet gives the 1987 demographic estimates for Asian and Pacific countries and areas. Countries and areas are grouped under ESCAP, East Asia, South-East Asia, South Asia and the Pacific. Estimates are offered for mid-1987 population, average annual growth rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate, total fertility rate, male and female life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, % aged 0-14, % aged 65+, density, and population projected to 2010. Also included are 2 charts depicting the estimated and projected population of the ESCAP region by broad age group for 1960, 1985, and 2010, and the estimated and projected total fertility rate of ESCAP subregions, 1960 to 2010. Some estimates for the ESCAP region include a mid-1987 population of 2,805,056,000; a 1.82% average annual growth rate; a 27.5 crude birth rate; a 9.3 crude death rate; a fertility rate of 3.3; male and female life expectancies of 61.8 and 64.1, respectively; an infant mortality rate of 72; 89 persons/square kilometer; 33.5% of the population aged 0-14, 4.8% of the population aged 65+; and a population projected to reach 3,866,375,000 by 2010.
New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
New York, UN, 1977. 183 p. (Population Studies No. 60)The projections in this report cover the years 1970-2000. Quinquennial projections were prepared by sex and 5-year groups for each of 155 countries, 8 major areas, and 24 regions. Projections by sex and single years of age for population between ages 5-24 are provided for every region and country. Other demographic indicators were calculated for each region including population totals for males and females, sex ratio, percentage distribution by age category, dependency ratio, median age, crude birth and death rates, general and total fertility rate, life expectancy, and gross and net reproduction rate. In 1975 the world population was estimated at 4 billion; the medium variant projection for the year 2000 is 6.25 billion. The rate of growth is estimated at 1.9% for 1970. A downward trend is expected for 1985 when growth will slow to 1.6%. There will continue to be wide disparities in the rates of growth of developed and less developed nations. In the less developed regions the annual rate of growth is expected to maintain its current 2.3-2.4% for about 15 years, 1970-85, reaching 1.9%, after a downward trend, by 2000. The more developed regions should decline from .9% to .6%. The highest average annual rate of growth is in Latin America, 2.7%, (1970-5). In 1975 Africa had the highest annual rate of growth, expected to exceed 2.9% from 1985-2000. Only Eastern Africa and Middle America are expected to exceed 3% up to 1990-95.
In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 2. Selected papers and summaries: fertility, family planning, mortality. New York, UN, 1967. 49-53. (E/CONF.41/3)U.N. world population projections place the world population in the year 2000 at anywhere between 6000 million and 7400 million. The less developed areas of the world are growing more rapidly than the developed areas. This will mean that the developed areas, which accounted for nearly 1/3 of the world population in 1960, will only account for less than 1/4 by the end of the century. The annual rate of increase suggests that the tempo of growth may be slowing slightly. The developing areas are still growing at twice the rate of the developed areas. Tables present these population projections and various projections on age structure of future populations. The world population, especially that in the developed countries, is aging, with all the concomitant social changes which that occurrence entails. The general problem of population growth must be handled within a context of socioeconomic developmental planning for each nation.
New York, UN, 1979. 98 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/33)The population projections presented are based on the cohort component method in which the population of each country classified by age and sex for the base year 1975 is projected forward on the basis of assumed future fertility, mortality, and migration rates. The world total population of 4,033 million in 1975 is projected to reach 6,199 million in 2000, about 55 million below the 1973 projection. The downward adjustment is the net result of projected fertility rates reflecting recent declines in some countries, and an upward adjustment of the bench-mark population of 1975 by 65 million, much of which is due to the upward revision of China's population from 839 to 895 million. For the less developed regions the current rate of growth is revised downward from 2.36% to 2.21% for l975-80. In the more developed regions the rate of growth is revised from .82 to .67 %. Future growth rates were revised from 1.94% to 1.84% for the less developed regions and from .59% to .51% for developed regions toward the last quinquennial period of this century. The percentage of the world living in less developed regions will increase from 72.9 in 1975 to 79.5 while the percentage for the more developed regions will decline from 27.1 to 20.5. The percentages will increase for Africa, Latin America, and South Asia but will decrease for North America, East Asia, Europe, and the U.S.S.R.
New York, UNFPA, June 1979. (Report No. 13) 151 pThis report is intended to serve, and has already to some extent so served, as part of the background material used by the United Nations Fund for Population Activities to evaluate project proposals as they relate to basic country needs for population assistance to Thailand, and in broader terms to define priorities of need in working towards eventual self-reliance in implementing the country's population activities. The function of the study is to determine the extent to which activities in the field of population provide Thailand with the fundamental capacity to deal with major population problems in accordance with its development policies. The assessment of population activities in Thailand involves a 3-fold approach. The main body of the report examines 7 categories of population activities rather broadly in the context of 10 elements considered to reflect effect ve government action. The 7 categories of population activities are: 1) basic data collection; 2) population dynamics; 3) formulation and evaluation of population policies and programs; 4) implementation of policies; 5) family planning programs; 6) communication a and education; and 7) special programs. The 10 elements comprise: 1) decennial census of population, housing, and agriculture; 2) an effective registration system; 3) assessment of the implications of population trends; 4) formulation of a comprehensive national population policy; 5) implementation of action programs integrated with related programs of economic and social development; 6) continued reduction in the population growth rate; 7) effective utilization of the services of private and voluntary organizations in action programs; 8) a central administrative unit to coordinate action programs; 9) evaluation of the national capacity in technical training, research, and production of equipment and supplies; and 10) maintenance of continuing liason and cooperation with other countries and with regional and international organizations.
Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, September 1978. (International Research Document No. 6) 12pCompiling population data for Afghanistan is made difficult by the nomadic population. Estimates of their numbers range from 1-2 million people, 9-14% of the total. A 1972-73 survey of the settled population accumulated data from approximately 21,000 households and 120,000 individuals. Pregnancy and marital histories were acquired from 10,000 women. The age-specific fertility rate was 8 per woman; crude birth rate, 43/1000. Estimated life expectancy for males was 34-42 years, for females, 36-41 years. The crude death rate is 28-32/1000. Of the 10,020,099 total settled population, 5,373,249 were male, 4,646,850 were female. The Afghan Family Guidance Association opened the first family planning clinic in 1968. By 1972 there were 18 clinics in operation. When surveyed, 3% of women over 15 knew about family planning, only 1/3 of these had used a family planning method. 66% males and 90% females over 15 were ever-married. About 11% of those over 6 years were literate, 18.7% males, 2.8% females.
CBFPS (Community-based Family Planning Services) in Thailand: a community-based approach to family planning.
Essex, Connecticut, International Council for Educational Development, 1978. (A project to help practitioners help the rural poor, case study no. 6) 91 pThis report and case study of the Community-Based Family Planning Service (CBFPS) in Thailand describes and evaluates the program in order to provide useful operational lessons for concerned national and international agencies. CBFPS has demonstrated the special role a private organization can play not only in providing family planning services, but in helping to pioneer a more integrated approach to rural development. The significant achievement of CBFPS is that it has overcome the familiar barriers of geographical access to family planning information and contraceptive supplies by making these available in the village community itself. The report gives detailed information on the history and development of the CBFPS, its current operation and organization, financial resources, and overall impact. Several important lessons were learned from the project: 1) the successful development of a project depends on a strong and dynamic leader; 2) cooperation between the public and private sectors is essential; 3) the success of a project depends primarily on the effectiveness of community-based activities; 4) planning and monitoring activities represent significant ingredients of project effectiveness; 5) a successful project needs a sense of commitment among its staff; 6) it is imperative that a project maintain good public relations; 7) the use of family planning strategy in introducing self-supporting development programs can be very effective; 8) manning of volunteer workers is crucial to project success; and 9) aside from acceptor recruitment in the short run, the primary purpose of education in more profound matterns such as childbearing, womens'roles in the family, and family life should also be kept in mind. The key to success lies in continuity of communication and education.
New York, New York: United Nations fund for population activities, 1978. 8 pIn the 4 years following the World Population Conference at Bucharest, almost all U.N. member countries participate in the U.N. Fund for Population Activities as donors and/or recipients. This momentum must be maintained and the implications of demographic trends must be assessed. The lowest forecast for world population in the Year 2000 is 1.8 billion more than in 1975. This "giantism" should not be regarded as a spectre but as a probable reality which needs to be faced boldly in order to take into account increased demands on Earth's resources in making government policy and planning programs for development and deployment of those resources. There are clear signs that fertility will fall as much as 30% during the next 20 years. This, however encouraging it seems, should not obscure the reality that it is occurring at a very high level of actual numbers of people whose lives must be sustained. In the developing world life expectancy has risen from 42 to 54 years; in the developed world from 65 to 71. In the Third World, infant mortality continues to be the most important determinant of general mortality levels even though there are encouraging indications of a steep fall in this area. A resurgence of malaria is bound to have a serious effect on mortality as it is being found mainly in already malnourished areas. At current rates all cities are expected to grow in the next 20 years. Programs and national policy must be established to manage the problems accompanying these crowded cities. Migration is high because economic growth rates cannot sustain the growing populations of developing countries. The magnitude of this movement is causing problems for most countries in the developed world, with one suggested solution being to close the doors to all immigration. The developed and developing worlds share two population problems: 1) the number of youth is growing resulting in a potential for massive increases in fertility; and 2) the decline of fertility rates and increased life expectancy resulting in marked changes in the age structure. The most significant principle emerging from this paper is that changes taking place in demographic processes should be recognized as powerful determinants of relevance in the formulation of social and economic policy and plans in every major area of national concern.
Teheran, Iran, Population and Manpower Bureau, Planning Division, November 1973. 75 p. (Unpublished)The structure and characteristics of Iran's current population are analyzed, and an attempt is made to review and analyze Iran's population evolution and determine its future trends in the light of the research studies conducted by various organizations. Until the second half of the nineteenth century there was no population census in Iran. The period after 1946 was marked by an increase in the annual population growth rate. The size and structure of the population bears a direct relationship to changes in the economic and social conditions. The population strategy of Iran is designed so as to slow down the rate of population growth by reducing the birthrate. This study demonstrated that it cannot be expected that the population growth rate will decrease to 2% annually in the next 20 years. The death rate will decrease to .8% and the birthrate will decrease to 3-3.4%. The article provides tables on the size of population, living conditions, population changes, and urbanization trends based on the projections of this study.
Geneva, ILO, 1973. 163 pThe survey attempts to answer specific questions about rapid population growth and labor problems and does not address the question of why the world's population is expanding as it is and what should be done about it. It is in effect a summary of the literature on the subject available in 1973, but is not based on ILO research underway as part of the World Employment Programme. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the ILO. The 1st 4 chapters provide a general background of conditions in developing countries with particular reference to fertility and mortality, economic development, social awareness and reaction of the population to their problems, and international efforts to aid such countries. Specific problems addressed include education, training for rural and industrial development, employment and unemployment both rural and urban, worker income and income distribution, social security provisions, and expansion of welfare services. The survey was undertaken at the request of the 51st Session of the International Labour Conference and was prepared by Robert Plant with the financial support of the U.N. Fund for Population Activities.
Country Profiles. 1972 Oct; 19.The estimated population of Iran in 1972 was 31,000,000, with an estimated rate of natural increase of 3.2% per year. In 1966 61% of the population lived in rural areas, male literacy was 41% and female literacy 18%. Coitus interruptus is the most common form of contraception used in Iran, followed by condoms. Because of the rapid rate of population growth, the government has taken a strong stand in support of family planning. The Ministry of Health coordinates family planning activities through the Family Planning Division. Contraceptive supplies are delivered free of charge through clinics. The national family planning program also is involved in postpartum programs, training of auxiliary personnel, communication and motivation for family planning population education, evaluation and research. The overall goal of the program is to reduce the growth rate of 2.4% by 1978, and to 1% by 1990.