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UN Chronicle. 1998 Winter; 35(4): p..According to the 1998 revised estimates and projections of the United Nations, the world population currently stands at 5.9 billion persons and is growing at 1.33 per cent per year, an annual net addition of about 78 million people. World population in the mid-twenty-first century is expected to be in the range of 7.3 to 10.7 billion, with a figure of 8.9 billion by the year 2050 considered to be most likely. Global population growth is slowing, thanks to successful family planning programmes. But because of past high fertility, the world population will continue to grow by over 80 million a year for at least the next decade. In mid-1999, the total will pass 6 billion-twice what it was in 1960. More young people than ever are entering their childbearing years. At the same time, the number and proportion of people over 65 are increasing at an unprecedented rate. The rapid growth of these young and old new generations is challenging societies' ability to provide education and health care for the young, and social, medical and financial support for the elderly. (excerpt)
Europe and Central Asia Region, Middle East and North Africa Region, population projections, 1992-93 edition.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., 1992 Nov. xcv, 203 p. (Policy Research Working Papers WPS 1016)Statistical information and a summary introduction were provided for Eastern Europe and Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, and North African regions for selected demographic and economic measures. Measures included income, birth and death rates, fertility rates, rate of natural increase, net migration rate, growth rate, infant mortality rate, dependency ratio, and population projections to 2150. Detailed age and sex distributions were also provided. Both World Bank and nonborrower countries were included. The figures were updated from the 1990-91 Edition. The summary described and discussed recent demographic trends and future projections, and reviewed countries and regions by income level. Noteworthy changes by country were indicated. World Bank borrower countries were divided into the following regions: sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, which were regrouped into 4-6 country departments and into 4 income groups. The largest population was in East Asia and the Pacific with 30% of world population. Other large regions included South Asia with 21%, Africa with 10%, Europe and Central Asia with 9%, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8%, and the Middle East and North Africa with 5%. Country departments reflected the regions as a whole, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa with growth rates of 32.% to 2.8%. East Africa had the highest rates and Sahelian and South African countries the lowest rates. The Middle Eastern countries had rates of 3.0% in contrast to North African countries rates of 2.7%. Diversity was greatest in Asian departments. Rates were 2.0-2.6% in South Asia and 1.9-1.4% in East Asian and Pacific departments. The lowest rates were in European and Central Asian departments. In 1992, less developed countries comprised 77% of the world population. The projections indicated that by 2150 the population would reach 12.2 billion, of which 88% would live in developing countries. The 1992 projections differed from 1990-91's in that the projections were revised downward due to AIDS mortality. World fertility was projected to decline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by 2000 and 2.4 by 2025. Life expectancy was expected to reach 70 years in about 2010. The proportion aged would rise in more developed countries.
World population projections, 1992-93 edition. Estimates and projections with related demographic statistics.
Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1992. vii, 515 p.Statistical tales provided population projections every 5 years between 1985 and 2030 and every 25 years between 1985 and 2150. Data were also given for the birth, death, natural increase, net migration, growth, fertility, net reproduction, and infant mortality rates. The projections were an update of this series in 1990, and take into account the impact of AIDS; other changes included the inclusion of the 15 countries of the former Soviet Union, the combined Germanys and Yemens, and the former Yugoslavian republics of Croatia and Slovenia. The overview of trends and projections indicated that Southeast Asia and Latin America have had rapid mortality and fertility decline, while most sub-Saharan African and Middle Eastern countries have had little change. Population growth for mid-1992 was estimated to be 5.44 billion. the projection for the year 2000 was 6.17 billion, which was a 12% increase over 1992 figures. 8.34 billion was the expected population for 2025, and 12.2 billion for 2050, of which 88% would be in countries currently defined as developing. The difference between these projections and those previously published in the 1989-90 edition was minimal for more developed countries, and lower for less developed countries due to the impact of AIDS. Population concentration is currently 59% in Asia, 15% in Europe, 14% in America, 12% in Africa, and 1% in Oceania. Changes will occur such that Africa's population will double, Europe's will be halved, and Asia's will remain stable. The fastest growing region in Africa in East Africa, followed by West Africa and then North Africa in 1992. The lowest growth rates in 1992 are in Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union. Without China and India, the highest growth rates are found among low income countries. Upper income countries have only 10% of total world population. The population under 15 years of age is expected to decrease from 32% in 1992 to 25% in 2025; conversely, the elderly population aged 65 years and older is expected to increase from 6% in 1992 to 10% in 2025. Life expectancy is highest in Japan at 79 years and lowest in Guinea-Bissau at 39 years. The largest difference in life expectancy between men and women is in the Russian Federation at 10.5 years. There is low fertility, mortality, and slow growth in the Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova; moderate growth in Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan; and mid to high fertility in the other republics.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1990. xiii, 420 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/98)2 groups expressed a need for this 2nd edition volume of stable population age distributions. Easily accessible information on the effect of demographic changes upon age distributions and dependency burdens is needed by planners of developing countries, while demographers are interested in construction demographic parameters under conditions of deficient data. A set of model stable age distributions, a series of intrinsic growth rates from 0-4%, intrinsic birth and death rates, percentages of populations in the 15-59 age groups, and child, elderly, and total dependency rates are therefore presented in this volume for the Latin American, Chilean, South Asian, Far East Asian, and General patterns of mortality. The Latin American pattern exhibits high mortality in the infant, childhood, and young adult years, with lower levels in the older ages. The Chilean pattern is one of extremely high infant mortality relative to general childhood mortality, while the South Asian pattern shows extremely high mortality under age 15 and over age 55. Low mortality is evidenced in the prime ages. The Far Eastern pattern exhibits relatively low mortality at younger ages, with high death rates at older ages. The General pattern is an average of these 4. Rates are defined, then calculated in an improved manner. UN model life table characteristics are also discussed and presented in an easier-to-read format. 420 pages of tables constitute the bulk of the volume.
International Family Planning Perspectives. 1991 Sep; 17(3):108-13.South Asia consisting of Bangladesh, India, Nepal Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, claims 1/5 to total world population with expected population growth of at least 200 million by the year 2000. Taking issue with assumptions behind World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN) population projections for the region, the authors make less optimistic assumptions of country fertility and mortality trends when running population projections for the region. Following discussion of methodological issues for and analysis of population projections, the paper's alternate assumptions and projection results are presented and discussed. Projections were made for each country of the region over the period 1985-2010, based on assumptions that only very modest fertility declines and improvements in life expectancy would develop over most of the 1990s. South Asian population would therefore grow from over 1 billion in 1985, to 1.4 billion by 2000, and almost 1.8 billion by 2010. Overall slower fertility decline than assumed for the UN and WB projections point to larger population growth with momentum for continued, larger growth through the 21st century. Rapid, substantial population growth as envisioned by these projections will impede movement toward an urban-industrial economy, with a burgeoning labor force exceeding the absorptive capacity of the modern sector. Job seekers will pile up in agriculture and the informal sector. Demands upon the government to deliver education and health services will also be extraordinarily high. High-tech niches will, however, continue expanding in India and Pakistan with overall negative social effects. Their low demand for labor will exacerbate income disparities, fuel interpersonal, interclass, and interregional tensions, and only contribute to eventual ethnic, communal, and political conflict. Immediate, coordinated policy is urged to achieve balanced low mortality and low fertility over the next few decades.
An examination of the population structure of Liberia within the framework of the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City Recommendations on Population and Development: policy implications and mechanism.
In: The 1984 International Conference on Population: the Liberian experience, [compiled by] Liberia. Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs. Monrovia, Liberia, Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs, . 111-36.The age and sex composition and distribution of the population of Liberia as affected by fertility, mortality, morbidity, migration, and development are examined within the framework of the Kilimanjaro Program of Action and recommendations of the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City. The data used are projections (1984-85) published in the 2nd Socio-Economic Development Plan, 1980. The population of Liberia is increasing at the rate of 3.5% and will double in 23.1 years. 60% of the population is under 20 and 2% over 75. Projected life expectancy is 55.5 years for women and 53.4 years for men. The population is characterized by high age dependency; 47.1% of the people are under 15 and 2.9% are over 64, so that half of the population consists of dependent age groups, primarily the school-age children (6-11 years). If these children are to enter the labor force, it is estimated that 19,500 jobs will have to be created to employ them. Moreover, fertility remains at its constant high level (3.5%), so, as mortality declines, the economic problem becomes acute. Furthermore, high fertility is accompanied by high infant and maternal mortality. High infant mortality causes couples in rural areas to have more children. These interdependent circumstances point up the need for family planning, more adequate health care delivery systems, and increasing the number of schools to eradicate illiteracy, which is currently at 80%. Integrated planning and development strategies and appropriate allotment of funds must become part of the government's policy if the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City recommendations are to be implemented.
In: The 1984 International Conference on Population: the Liberian experience, [compiled by] Liberia. Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs. Monrovia, Liberia, Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs, . 9-17.The purpose of the National Seminar on Population is to disseminate in Liberia the results of the World Population Conference held in Mexico City in August 1984. Due to the complex interrelationships between population and development, one must conclude that rapid population growth has an adverse effect on development. Liberia has a high level of fertility (48-51 lives births per 1000 population) and a high mortality (18 per 1000 population). One result of these population trends is that the population is youthful, about 50% of the people being under 18. This high growth potential means that in future the resources necessary to support the population will be scarcer. Secondly, increasing rural to urban migration means that the cities will have more people than they have jobs, housing, education, or health facilities to support them and that the rural areas will be depopulated with attendant lowered agricultural production and rural poverty. Education is at least partly responsible for the rural-urban migration because it alerts young people to the increasing opportunities in the towns. The current trend of increasing fertility and declining mortality means decreased economic growth and a lower standard of living. To reduce this trend people must be made aware of the necessity to lower the birth rate as well as of the means to do it. People regard a large family as a status symbol and children as a source of labor and support in old age. These attitudes will not change until people trust that the Government is committed to the socioeconomic changes that will make practicable the shift from large households with low productivity to small families with high productivity. As part of this effort, the National Committee on Population is being expanded into a National Population Commission, responsible for coordinating population programs and drafting a national population policy.
In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 115-40, 329. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)This paper reviews the various methods of projecting future numbers of households, summarizes prospective major trends in the numbers of households and the average household size among the developing countries prepared by the UN Population Division in 1981, and analyzes the size structure of households among the developing countries in contrast to the developed nations. The purpose of this analysis is to prepare household projections by size (average number of persons in a household) for the developing countries. The headship rate method is now the most widely used procedure for projecting households. The headship rate denotes a ratio of the number of heads of households, classified by sex, age, and other demographic characteristics such as marital status, to the corresponding classes of population. When population projections have become available by sex, age, and other characteristics, the projected number of households is obtained by adding up over all classes the product of projected population and projected headship rate. In addition to the headship rate method, this paper also reviews other approaches, namely, simple household-to-population ratio method; life-table method, namely the Brown-Glass-Davidson models; vital statistics method by Illing; and projections by simulation. Experience indicates that the effect of changes in population by sex and age is usually the most important determinant of the change in the number of households and it would be wasteful if the household projections failed to employ readily population projections. Future changes in the number of households among the developing countries are very significant. According to the 1981 UN projections, the future increase in the number of households both in the developed and developing countries will far exceed that in population. In 1975-80 the annual average growth rate of households was 2.89% for the developing countries as a whole while that for population was 2.08%. In 1980-85, the growth rate for households for the developing countries will be 2.99%, while that for population will be 2.04%. In 1995-2000 the figure for household growth will be 2.89%, whereas that for population will be 1.77%. The past trend of fertility is the most important factor for the reduction of household size and it would continuously be the central factor. The increasing headship rates will be observed among the sex-age groups, except the young female groups, as a result of increasing nuclearization in households.
In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 1-15, 325. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)This discussion covers the prospects of population growth in Asian countries, prospects of changes in sex-age structures in Asian countries, and the effect of urbanization on national population growth in developing countries. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, size of total population of Asian countries recorded 2580 million in 1980, which accounted for 58.2% of total population of the world. As it had shown 1390 million, accounting for 55.1% of the world population in 1950, it grew at a higher annual increase rate of 2.08% than that of 1.90% for the world average during the 30 years. On the basis of the UN population projections assessed in 1980 (medium variant), the world population attains 6121 million by 2000, and Asian population records 3555 million, which is 58.0% of the total population of the world and which is a slightly smaller share than in 1980. The population of East Asia shows 1475 million and that of South Asia 2077 million. During 20 years after 1980, the population growth becomes much faster in South Asia than in East Asia. After 1980 the population growth rate in Asia as well as on the world average shows a declining trend. In Asia it indicates 1.72% for 1980-90 and 1.50% for 1990-2000, whereas on the world average it shows 1.76% and 1.49%, respectively. The population density for Asia showing 94 persons per square kilometer, slightly lower than that of Europe (99 persons) as of 1980, records 129 persons per square kilometer and exceeds that of Europe (105 persons) in 2000. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, the sex ratio for the world average indicates 100.7 males/100 females as of 1980, and it shows 104.1 for Asia. This is higher than that for the average of developing countries (103.2). In the year 2000 it is observed generally in the UN projections that the countries with a sex ratio of 100 and over as of 1980 show a decrease but those with the ratio smaller than 100 record an increase. Almost all Asian countries are projected to indicate a decrease in the proportion of population aged 0-14 against the increases in that aged 15-64 and in that aged 65 and older between 1980-2000. In 1980 the proportion of population aged 0-14 showed more than 40.0% in most of the Asian countries. In the year 2000 almost all the countries in East Asia and Eastern South Asia indicate larger than 60.0% in the proportion of adult population. Urbanization brings about the effects of reducing the speed of increase in a national population and of causing significant changes in sex and age structures of the national population. Considering the future acceleration of urbanization in Asian countries, the prospects of growth and changes in sex and age structures of populations in Asian countries may need to be revised from the standpoint of subnational population changes.
New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
Aging population and development, statement made at the European Follow-up Forum on Aging, Castelgandolfo, Italy, 6-11 September, 1981.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 7 p.UNFPA's concern over the issue of aging and the agency's ability to help alleviate some of the problems caused by aging, is discussed. Aging is a feature of both developed and developing countries. In the world as a whole, the number of older people has nearly doubled since 1950, and 1/2 of them live in the less developed countries. Such a shift in the balance of ages will have many profound consequences for the world a generation or more hence. The capacity to confront successfully the wide variety of issues raised by aging is not determined by a country's economic position or its status as a developed or developing country. Many of the economic and social systems which permit the elderly to make a positive contribution, and hold them in most esteem as valued members of the community, are among the economically less developed. All countries need to develop an economic structure which caters to the needs and abilities of older people, either through social security, living and working facilities for older people, or as is the case of the less developed countries, through extended family networks.
Revue Tiers Monde. 1983 Apr-Jun; 24(94):305-24.This article discusses methodologies for arriving at population projections and predictions and their limitations, and presents short-term predictions for 1980-2000, longterm projections for 2000-2025, and very longterm projections for 2025-2100, which are highly speculative. The UN population projections for 210 countries and territories are provided by age and sex and by rural or urban status. The UN projections are prepared in 3 phases: 1) analysis of the quality of the basic data in different regions; 2) development of hypotheses concerning the evolution of fertility, mortality, and migration; and 3) separate projection of each component of growth. 4 variants, the medium, high, low, and constant fertility versions are usually prepared, of which the medium projection is considered most likely and that of constant fertility is included only for comparisons. The world crude reproduction rate fell from 2.41 in 1950 to 1.96 in 1975-80, and is expected to fall to 1.34 during 2000-2010 and to almost unity in the mid 21st century. Only Africa and Latin America are expected to have crude reproduction rates above replacement level in 2025. According to the medium projection, the world population will each 6.2 billion in 2000 and 10.4 billion in 2075, when it will be nearly stationary. Future growth in already developed countries will be minimal, but Third World countries, which had a population of 1.7 billion in 1950 and 3.3 billion in 1980, will have nearly 5 billion by 2000 and will stabilize at about 9.1 billion, representing 87% of total world population. About 40% will live in South Asia. The population in 2075 will be 1.2 billion in Latin America, 2.2 billion in Africa, and 1.7 billion in East Asia. The age structure of the future population will undergo considerable aging and the trend toward urbanization will accelerate.
New York, UN, 1977. 183 p. (Population Studies No. 60)The projections in this report cover the years 1970-2000. Quinquennial projections were prepared by sex and 5-year groups for each of 155 countries, 8 major areas, and 24 regions. Projections by sex and single years of age for population between ages 5-24 are provided for every region and country. Other demographic indicators were calculated for each region including population totals for males and females, sex ratio, percentage distribution by age category, dependency ratio, median age, crude birth and death rates, general and total fertility rate, life expectancy, and gross and net reproduction rate. In 1975 the world population was estimated at 4 billion; the medium variant projection for the year 2000 is 6.25 billion. The rate of growth is estimated at 1.9% for 1970. A downward trend is expected for 1985 when growth will slow to 1.6%. There will continue to be wide disparities in the rates of growth of developed and less developed nations. In the less developed regions the annual rate of growth is expected to maintain its current 2.3-2.4% for about 15 years, 1970-85, reaching 1.9%, after a downward trend, by 2000. The more developed regions should decline from .9% to .6%. The highest average annual rate of growth is in Latin America, 2.7%, (1970-5). In 1975 Africa had the highest annual rate of growth, expected to exceed 2.9% from 1985-2000. Only Eastern Africa and Middle America are expected to exceed 3% up to 1990-95.
In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 2. Selected papers and summaries: fertility, family planning, mortality. New York, UN, 1967. 49-53. (E/CONF.41/3)U.N. world population projections place the world population in the year 2000 at anywhere between 6000 million and 7400 million. The less developed areas of the world are growing more rapidly than the developed areas. This will mean that the developed areas, which accounted for nearly 1/3 of the world population in 1960, will only account for less than 1/4 by the end of the century. The annual rate of increase suggests that the tempo of growth may be slowing slightly. The developing areas are still growing at twice the rate of the developed areas. Tables present these population projections and various projections on age structure of future populations. The world population, especially that in the developed countries, is aging, with all the concomitant social changes which that occurrence entails. The general problem of population growth must be handled within a context of socioeconomic developmental planning for each nation.
New York, UN, 1979. 98 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/33)The population projections presented are based on the cohort component method in which the population of each country classified by age and sex for the base year 1975 is projected forward on the basis of assumed future fertility, mortality, and migration rates. The world total population of 4,033 million in 1975 is projected to reach 6,199 million in 2000, about 55 million below the 1973 projection. The downward adjustment is the net result of projected fertility rates reflecting recent declines in some countries, and an upward adjustment of the bench-mark population of 1975 by 65 million, much of which is due to the upward revision of China's population from 839 to 895 million. For the less developed regions the current rate of growth is revised downward from 2.36% to 2.21% for l975-80. In the more developed regions the rate of growth is revised from .82 to .67 %. Future growth rates were revised from 1.94% to 1.84% for the less developed regions and from .59% to .51% for developed regions toward the last quinquennial period of this century. The percentage of the world living in less developed regions will increase from 72.9 in 1975 to 79.5 while the percentage for the more developed regions will decline from 27.1 to 20.5. The percentages will increase for Africa, Latin America, and South Asia but will decrease for North America, East Asia, Europe, and the U.S.S.R.
New York, UNFPA, June 1979. (Report No. 13) 151 pThis report is intended to serve, and has already to some extent so served, as part of the background material used by the United Nations Fund for Population Activities to evaluate project proposals as they relate to basic country needs for population assistance to Thailand, and in broader terms to define priorities of need in working towards eventual self-reliance in implementing the country's population activities. The function of the study is to determine the extent to which activities in the field of population provide Thailand with the fundamental capacity to deal with major population problems in accordance with its development policies. The assessment of population activities in Thailand involves a 3-fold approach. The main body of the report examines 7 categories of population activities rather broadly in the context of 10 elements considered to reflect effect ve government action. The 7 categories of population activities are: 1) basic data collection; 2) population dynamics; 3) formulation and evaluation of population policies and programs; 4) implementation of policies; 5) family planning programs; 6) communication a and education; and 7) special programs. The 10 elements comprise: 1) decennial census of population, housing, and agriculture; 2) an effective registration system; 3) assessment of the implications of population trends; 4) formulation of a comprehensive national population policy; 5) implementation of action programs integrated with related programs of economic and social development; 6) continued reduction in the population growth rate; 7) effective utilization of the services of private and voluntary organizations in action programs; 8) a central administrative unit to coordinate action programs; 9) evaluation of the national capacity in technical training, research, and production of equipment and supplies; and 10) maintenance of continuing liason and cooperation with other countries and with regional and international organizations.
In: Sai, F.T., ed. Family welfare and development in Africa. (Proceedings of the IPPF Regional Conference, Ibadan, Nigeria, August 29-September 3, 1976.) London, International Planned Parenthood Federation, 1977. p. 1-15The conference is unique in many respects, most importantly in that it is the 1st in which the Africa Regional Council of IPPF, representing a voluntary nongovernmental organization, has invited governments to sit together with volunteers as full participants to discuss issues of fundamental importance to family health and welfare, and socioeconomic development. The conference refused to accept that population itself is the root cause of Africa's development problems, but is has agreed that in many situations such rapid growth rates can stultify the best efforts of governments and peoples toward attainment of legitimate developmental objectives. There was complete agreement about the definition and reasons for family planning as encompassing a group of activities which ensure that individuals and couples have children when they are socially and physiologically best equipped to have them; that they are enabled to space them satisfactorily; and that they have the number they desire. Additional considerations were population policy; development; the integrated approach to family planning and family welfare activities; the status of women; sex education; the law and planned parenthood; and the role of Family Planning Associations (FPAs) in the Africa Region. It is necessary to ensure that in the selection of strategies and roles, FPAs take into consideration local realities by way of human and other resources; the traditions and cultural acceptances; and the sensibilities and potentials of governments. Compared to government, the FPAs must be the "jeep"--the 4-wheel drive that is able to go into the most inaccessible of places and deliver the services where they are needed.
Seminar Paper, Bombay, India, International Institute for Population Studies, June 1978. 9 pIn the 1971 census in India, data on current fertility were collected for the 1st time. Various factors affecting fertility (fertility differentials) were revealed after studying the data: 1) Rural and urban residence data show higher fertility in rural areas, with total marital fertility rate estimated to be 4.56 and 4.09 in rural and urban populations, respectively. The difference was mainly due to lower fertility among the currently married women of urban areas in the age group of 18 years and above. 2) Educational attainment of women data indicate that fertility among the illiterate group was lower as compared to those women who have read up to the graduate level in rural areas, whereas urban fertility was lower in all categories except graduate level or above. 3) Age at marriage data indicate that in Karnataka the total marital fertility rates declined sharply as age at marriage increased in both urban and rural areas. 4) Religion data show that total marital fertility by religion and place of residence was lowest among Hindu women. Christians exhibited highest fertility in rural areas, and Muslims had the highest urban fertility. 5) Differentials in scheduled caste, tribe, and nonscheduled population show lower fertility rates among nonscheduled as compared to scheduled population. Among the scheduled castes and tribes, the latter show higher fertility.
Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, September 1978. (International Research Document No. 6) 12pCompiling population data for Afghanistan is made difficult by the nomadic population. Estimates of their numbers range from 1-2 million people, 9-14% of the total. A 1972-73 survey of the settled population accumulated data from approximately 21,000 households and 120,000 individuals. Pregnancy and marital histories were acquired from 10,000 women. The age-specific fertility rate was 8 per woman; crude birth rate, 43/1000. Estimated life expectancy for males was 34-42 years, for females, 36-41 years. The crude death rate is 28-32/1000. Of the 10,020,099 total settled population, 5,373,249 were male, 4,646,850 were female. The Afghan Family Guidance Association opened the first family planning clinic in 1968. By 1972 there were 18 clinics in operation. When surveyed, 3% of women over 15 knew about family planning, only 1/3 of these had used a family planning method. 66% males and 90% females over 15 were ever-married. About 11% of those over 6 years were literate, 18.7% males, 2.8% females.
CBFPS (Community-based Family Planning Services) in Thailand: a community-based approach to family planning.
Essex, Connecticut, International Council for Educational Development, 1978. (A project to help practitioners help the rural poor, case study no. 6) 91 pThis report and case study of the Community-Based Family Planning Service (CBFPS) in Thailand describes and evaluates the program in order to provide useful operational lessons for concerned national and international agencies. CBFPS has demonstrated the special role a private organization can play not only in providing family planning services, but in helping to pioneer a more integrated approach to rural development. The significant achievement of CBFPS is that it has overcome the familiar barriers of geographical access to family planning information and contraceptive supplies by making these available in the village community itself. The report gives detailed information on the history and development of the CBFPS, its current operation and organization, financial resources, and overall impact. Several important lessons were learned from the project: 1) the successful development of a project depends on a strong and dynamic leader; 2) cooperation between the public and private sectors is essential; 3) the success of a project depends primarily on the effectiveness of community-based activities; 4) planning and monitoring activities represent significant ingredients of project effectiveness; 5) a successful project needs a sense of commitment among its staff; 6) it is imperative that a project maintain good public relations; 7) the use of family planning strategy in introducing self-supporting development programs can be very effective; 8) manning of volunteer workers is crucial to project success; and 9) aside from acceptor recruitment in the short run, the primary purpose of education in more profound matterns such as childbearing, womens'roles in the family, and family life should also be kept in mind. The key to success lies in continuity of communication and education.
New York, New York: United Nations fund for population activities, 1978. 8 pIn the 4 years following the World Population Conference at Bucharest, almost all U.N. member countries participate in the U.N. Fund for Population Activities as donors and/or recipients. This momentum must be maintained and the implications of demographic trends must be assessed. The lowest forecast for world population in the Year 2000 is 1.8 billion more than in 1975. This "giantism" should not be regarded as a spectre but as a probable reality which needs to be faced boldly in order to take into account increased demands on Earth's resources in making government policy and planning programs for development and deployment of those resources. There are clear signs that fertility will fall as much as 30% during the next 20 years. This, however encouraging it seems, should not obscure the reality that it is occurring at a very high level of actual numbers of people whose lives must be sustained. In the developing world life expectancy has risen from 42 to 54 years; in the developed world from 65 to 71. In the Third World, infant mortality continues to be the most important determinant of general mortality levels even though there are encouraging indications of a steep fall in this area. A resurgence of malaria is bound to have a serious effect on mortality as it is being found mainly in already malnourished areas. At current rates all cities are expected to grow in the next 20 years. Programs and national policy must be established to manage the problems accompanying these crowded cities. Migration is high because economic growth rates cannot sustain the growing populations of developing countries. The magnitude of this movement is causing problems for most countries in the developed world, with one suggested solution being to close the doors to all immigration. The developed and developing worlds share two population problems: 1) the number of youth is growing resulting in a potential for massive increases in fertility; and 2) the decline of fertility rates and increased life expectancy resulting in marked changes in the age structure. The most significant principle emerging from this paper is that changes taking place in demographic processes should be recognized as powerful determinants of relevance in the formulation of social and economic policy and plans in every major area of national concern.
IPPA-News Letter, No. 1. September 1977. p. 2-3.There are 5 important aspects related to family planning (FP) in Indonesia: 1) The large population. It is the 5th largest country in the world in terms of population. 2) The rapid increase in population (2.4%/annum). 3) The uneven distribution - most live in Java and Bali where land area is only 8% of total. 4) Age composition - 45% of the population is under age 15. 5) Mobility - there is little mobility and communication despite urbanization. In 1957 the IPPA cautiously began counseling. In 1968 the Suharto administration declared FP a national program. In 1970 the National FP Coordinating Body was established to oversee action of government institutions and private organizations with the goal of bringing down population increase from 2.4 to 1.2 by the year 2000. The 1st 5-year program (from 1969 to 1974) included Bali and Java, the 2nd (1974-1979) added 10 other provinces, and the 3rd will include the remaining 11 provinces.
Background paper prepared by the Secretary General for the World Population Conference, Bucharest, Romania, August 19-30, 1974. New York, United Nations, May 24, 1974. 105 p.During 1972-1973, a second inquiry among governments on population growth and development was carried out. Questionnaires were sent out in October 1972; and by the end of 1973, 80 governments had sent in replies. A report based on the replies is presented. World population growth accelerated greatly after 1950. For all the less developed regions, the rate of natural increase is expected to be at its highest level during the 1970s and then very slowly begin to ebb off. In Africa, the upward trend may continue for 2 decades before declining. In most of the countries, it is assumed that the rate of economic growth will be higher in the 1970s than it was in the 1960s. Progress has been achieved in some areas of social development, particularly in education and public health. Of the areas in which population growth was rapid during the past decades, only Asia is almost universally pursuing a policy of reducing the rate of population increase. Low rates of population growth have been achieved in most of Europe, Northern America, and Oceania. Family planning activities are spreading throughout the world. The role of a national demographic service and the need for highly-trained demographers are being recognized in most of the countries. Many of the countries acknowledged the part played by the U.N. agencies in the organization and improvement of the process of collecting demographic data. Proposals for the expansion of the U.N.'s role in organizing exchanges of experience between interested countries in certain areas are made.
Teheran, Iran, Population and Manpower Bureau, Planning Division, November 1973. 75 p. (Unpublished)The structure and characteristics of Iran's current population are analyzed, and an attempt is made to review and analyze Iran's population evolution and determine its future trends in the light of the research studies conducted by various organizations. Until the second half of the nineteenth century there was no population census in Iran. The period after 1946 was marked by an increase in the annual population growth rate. The size and structure of the population bears a direct relationship to changes in the economic and social conditions. The population strategy of Iran is designed so as to slow down the rate of population growth by reducing the birthrate. This study demonstrated that it cannot be expected that the population growth rate will decrease to 2% annually in the next 20 years. The death rate will decrease to .8% and the birthrate will decrease to 3-3.4%. The article provides tables on the size of population, living conditions, population changes, and urbanization trends based on the projections of this study.