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Studies in Family Planning. 1978 May; 9(5):89-147.A macroanalysis of the correlates of fertility decline in developing countries for the period 1965-75. The analysis focuses on how much of the fertility decline is associated with socioeconomic variables such as health, education, economic status, and urbanization, or with "modernization" as a whole, and how much with population policies and programs designed to reduce rates of growth. The data are examined in a variety of ways: 1) simple correlations among the variables; 2) multiple regression analysis using both 1970 values of socioeconomic variables and, for the alternative lag theory, 1960 values; 3) change in the socioeconomic variables over time; 4) a special form of regression analysis called path analysis; 5) a relatively new type of analysis called exploratory data analysis; 6) relation of socioeconomic level and program efforts to both absolute and percentage declines in fertility; 7) crosstabulations of program effort with an index of socioeconomic variables. Such data and analyses show that the level of "modernization" as reflected by 7 socioeconomic factors has a substantial relationship to fertility decline, but also that family planning programs have a significant, independent effect over and above the effect of socioeconomic factors. The key finding probably is that 2 (social setting and program effort) go together most effectively. Countries that rank well on socioeconomic variables and also make substantial program effort have had on average much more fertility decline than have countries with one or the other, and far more than those with neither. Finally, the relationship between predicted and observed crude birth rate decline for the 94 developing countries over this period is illustrated for different combinations of actors, and an attempt is made to estimate the quantitative impact of the major conditions upon the intermediate variables traditionally assumed to account for crude birth rate change.(AUTHOR ABSTRACT)
Seminar Paper, Bombay, India, International Institute for Population Studies, June 1978. 9 pIn the 1971 census in India, data on current fertility were collected for the 1st time. Various factors affecting fertility (fertility differentials) were revealed after studying the data: 1) Rural and urban residence data show higher fertility in rural areas, with total marital fertility rate estimated to be 4.56 and 4.09 in rural and urban populations, respectively. The difference was mainly due to lower fertility among the currently married women of urban areas in the age group of 18 years and above. 2) Educational attainment of women data indicate that fertility among the illiterate group was lower as compared to those women who have read up to the graduate level in rural areas, whereas urban fertility was lower in all categories except graduate level or above. 3) Age at marriage data indicate that in Karnataka the total marital fertility rates declined sharply as age at marriage increased in both urban and rural areas. 4) Religion data show that total marital fertility by religion and place of residence was lowest among Hindu women. Christians exhibited highest fertility in rural areas, and Muslims had the highest urban fertility. 5) Differentials in scheduled caste, tribe, and nonscheduled population show lower fertility rates among nonscheduled as compared to scheduled population. Among the scheduled castes and tribes, the latter show higher fertility.