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  1. 1
    322873

    Early identification of at-risk youth in Latin America: an application of cluster analysis.

    Bagby E; Cunningham W

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Human Development Department, 2007 Oct. 55 p. (Policy Research Working Paper No. 4377)

    A new literature on the nature of and policies for youth in Latin America is emerging, but there is still very little known about who are the most vulnerable young people. This paper aims to characterize the heterogeneity in the youth population and identify ex ante the youth that are at-risk and should be targeted with prevention programs. Using non-parametric methodologies and specialized youth surveys from Mexico and Chile, the authors quantify and characterize the different subgroups of youth, according to the amount of risk in their lives, and find that approximately 20 percent of 18 to 24 year old Chileans and 40 percent of the same age cohort in Mexico are suffering the consequences of a range of negative behaviors. Another 8 to 20 percent demonstrate factors in their lives that pre-dispose them to becoming at-risk youth - they are the candidates for prevention programs. The analysis finds two observable variables that can be used to identify which children have a higher probability of becoming troubled youth: poverty and residing in rural areas. The analysis also finds that risky behaviors increase with age and differ by gender, thereby highlighting the need for program and policy differentiation along these two demographic dimensions. (author's)
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  2. 2
    014195

    Construction of the new United Nations model life table system.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    Population Bulletin of the United Nations. 1982; (14):54-65.

    Previous systems of model life tables were based on empirical data from the now developed countries (the Coale and Demeny models) or, when patterns from less developed countries were included (the original UN set and the Lederman set), included data of poor or unknown quality. However, with the advent of new demographic techniques of data evaluation and of improved survey, census, and vital registration systems, it has become possible to construct a new model life table system based on reliable data from less developed countries and hence more applicable to demographic analysis within that milieu. The new UN model life tables are based on carefully evaluated age-sex specific mortality data found in developing countries. Analysis of these data indicated 4 major age patterns of mortality. These patterns have been labelled the Latin American pattern, the Chilean pattern, the South Asian pattern, and the Far Eastern pattern, according to the geographical region predominant in each pattern. An overall average pattern, labelled the general pattern, has also been constructed. Along with the model life tables themselves, the UN is also producing models of sex differences in life expectancy, single-year mortality, and stable populations. A manual of computer programs to facilitate use of these models is also being prepared. (author's)
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