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  1. 1

    South Asia's future population: are there really grounds for optimism?

    Leete R; Jones G

    International Family Planning Perspectives. 1991 Sep; 17(3):108-13.

    South Asia consisting of Bangladesh, India, Nepal Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, claims 1/5 to total world population with expected population growth of at least 200 million by the year 2000. Taking issue with assumptions behind World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN) population projections for the region, the authors make less optimistic assumptions of country fertility and mortality trends when running population projections for the region. Following discussion of methodological issues for and analysis of population projections, the paper's alternate assumptions and projection results are presented and discussed. Projections were made for each country of the region over the period 1985-2010, based on assumptions that only very modest fertility declines and improvements in life expectancy would develop over most of the 1990s. South Asian population would therefore grow from over 1 billion in 1985, to 1.4 billion by 2000, and almost 1.8 billion by 2010. Overall slower fertility decline than assumed for the UN and WB projections point to larger population growth with momentum for continued, larger growth through the 21st century. Rapid, substantial population growth as envisioned by these projections will impede movement toward an urban-industrial economy, with a burgeoning labor force exceeding the absorptive capacity of the modern sector. Job seekers will pile up in agriculture and the informal sector. Demands upon the government to deliver education and health services will also be extraordinarily high. High-tech niches will, however, continue expanding in India and Pakistan with overall negative social effects. Their low demand for labor will exacerbate income disparities, fuel interpersonal, interclass, and interregional tensions, and only contribute to eventual ethnic, communal, and political conflict. Immediate, coordinated policy is urged to achieve balanced low mortality and low fertility over the next few decades.
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  2. 2

    Trends and patterns of mortality in the ESCAP Region: comparative analysis.

    Ruzicka L; Kane P

    In: Mortality and health issues in Asia and the Pacific: report of a seminar held at Beijing in collaboration with the Institute of Population Research, People's University of China from 22 to 27 October 1986. New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. 33-105. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 78.; ST/ESCAP/485.)

    This study outlines the mortality transition in 6 developing countries: Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand. The path and pattern of the mortality transition in these countries is compared to the transition in other countries in the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region. These 6 countries have striking similarities to others in the region: 1) they have all been exposed to colonialism in the past; 2) 30 or 40 years ago they were very similar in their demographic characteristics, and only in the last decade or so have they become increasingly heterogenous; and 3) they have suffered from the stagnation of economic growth and inflation. In at least 1 of the 6 countries, the Republic of Korea, mortality probably started declining early in this century. In Pakistan and Bangladesh, during the British colonial administration of the 1920s, the early decline of mortality was probably limited to urban areas. The onset of the mortality transition is more difficult to date in Thailand and Indonesia, but it probably did not begin before the mid-1940s. It is unlikely that major improvements in Chinese mortality began before the 1950s. In all 6 countries age and sex specific mortality rates declined, though the pattern of these changes varies greatly among them. In most instances, significant reductions in infancy and early childhood mortality occurred, lesser ones among adults, and least affected were older people. In some countries, the reduction of female mortality at some or all ages was proportionately greater than that of males, with a subsequent widening of the gap between the survival chances of males and females. There have been no major changes in the age and sex structure of the 6 populations other than those which have originated from the recent decline in fertility in some of them. The reduced numbers of higher order births, birth spacing, and the postponement of marriage and of births to very young mothers must have reduced infant, child, and maternal mortality. A significant contribution to the general decline of mortality accrues from 2 major trends: 1) rising urbanization, and 2) increasing adult literacy, especially of women. On the available evidence, it appears that in all the countries except Bangladesh the nutritional situation of the population has improved. Health care planning has been an integral part of developmental plans in all 6 countries of the ESCAP region. The health delivery systems in all 6 countries have greatly expanded in the last 35 years. 3 characteristics have made the mortality decline unique: the magnitude, speed, and universality of the decline.
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  3. 3

    Mortality and health issues in Asia and the Pacific: report of a seminar held at Beijing in collaboration with the Institute of Population Research, People's University of China from 22 to 27 October 1986.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. vi, 169 p. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 78.; ST/ESCAP/485.)

    The Seminar on Mortality and Health Issues was held at Beijing from 22 to 27 October 1986 as a cooperative venture between the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Institute of Population Research, People's University of China, as part of the project, "Analysis of Trends and Patterns of Mortality in the ESCAP Region." Part 1 of the report includes a summary of the Beijing recommendations on health and mortality and the report of the seminar. Part 2 contains papers on a comparative analysis on trends and patterns of mortality in the ESCAP region, an overview of the epidemiological situation in the region, health for all by the year 2000, and inequalities in health.
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  4. 4

    The demographic situation in the ECAFE region.

    United Nations. Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East [ECAFE]. Secretariat

    In: Population strategy in Asia. The Second Asian Population Conference, Tokyo, November 1972. Report, declaration and selected papers, [compiled by] United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East [ECAFE]. Bangkok, Thailand, ECAFE, 1974 Jun. 69-130. (Asian Population Study Series No. 28; E/C.N.11/1152)

    The Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) region currently includes 31 countries and territories. Since the first Asian Population Conference in 1963, there has been greater recognition of the adverse effects of rapid population growth on national development and on the standard of living of individual family units. By the year 2000, the population of the ECAFE region is expected to almost equal the total for the world in 1970, despite significantly slowed population growth in the East Asia subregion. During the periods 1900-1950 and 1950-2000, the average annual rates of growth for the population of the ECAFE region are estimated at 0.7% and 2.0%, respectively. The 4 largest countries in the region--China, India, Indonesia, and Japan--together hold 78% of the region's total population. Even in the countries where there has been a decline in fertility, it has not been sufficient to offset the effects of corresponding declines in mortality. The 1950 population of each country, except for China and Japan, will at least double itself by the year 2000. The number of preschool-aged children is expected to reach 356 million by 1980 and there will be 609 million school-aged children. Children ages 0-14 years currently comprise about 40% of the total population of the ECAFE region, producing a high dependency burden. The female population in the reproductive age group will grow from 474 million in 1970 to 593 million in 1980, implying that the fertility potential of the region will be accelerated. In addition, the population of persons aged 60 years and over will increase from 117 million in 1970 to 158 million in 1980, requiring significant investments in health facilities and social security. The urban population in the region is expected to increase from 25% in 1970 to 45% by 2000. Despite widespread awareness of the interrelation of population and development, no common approach among demographers, family plannes, and economic plannes has emerged.
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  5. 5

    China: long-term development issues and options. The report of a mission sent to China by the World Bank.

    Lim E; Wood A; Porter I; Taylor RP; Byrd W; Tidrick G; King T; Tims W; Pohl G

    Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985. xiii, 183 p. (World Bank Country Economic Report)

    This report summarizes the conclusions of a World Bank study undertaken in 1984 to identify the key development issues China is expected to face in the next 20 years. Among the areas addressed by chapters in this monograph are agricultural prospects, energy development, spatial issues, international economic strategy, managing industrial technology, human development, mobilizing financial resources, and development management. China's economic prospects are viewed as dependinding upon success in mobilizing and effectively using all available resources, especially people. This in turn will depend on sucess in reforming the system of economic management, including progress in 3 areas: 1) greater use of market regulation to stimulate innovation and efficiency; 2) stronger planning, combining indirect with direct economic control; and 3) modification and extension of social institutions and policies to maintain the fairness in distribution that is basic to socialism in the face of the greater inequality and instability that may result from market regulation and indirect controls. Over the next 2 decades, China can be expected to become a middle-income country. The government has set the goal of quadrupling the gross value of industrial and agricultural output between 1980 and 2000 and increasing per capita income from US$300 to $800. China's size and past emphasis on local self-sufficiency offer opportunities for enormous economic gains through increased specialization and trade among localities. Increased rural-urban migration seems probable and desirable, although an increase in urban services and infrastructure will be required. The expected slow rate of population increase is an important foundation for China's favorable economic growth prospects. On the other hand, it may not be desirable to hold fertility below the replacement level for very long, given the effects this would have on the population's age structure. The increase in the proportion of elderly people will be a serious social issue in the next century, and reforms of the social security system need to be considered.
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  6. 6

    Demographic trends and their development implications.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)

    This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
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  7. 7

    Prospects of population growth and changes in sex-age structures in Asian countries.

    Otomo A; Obayashi S

    In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 1-15, 325. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)

    This discussion covers the prospects of population growth in Asian countries, prospects of changes in sex-age structures in Asian countries, and the effect of urbanization on national population growth in developing countries. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, size of total population of Asian countries recorded 2580 million in 1980, which accounted for 58.2% of total population of the world. As it had shown 1390 million, accounting for 55.1% of the world population in 1950, it grew at a higher annual increase rate of 2.08% than that of 1.90% for the world average during the 30 years. On the basis of the UN population projections assessed in 1980 (medium variant), the world population attains 6121 million by 2000, and Asian population records 3555 million, which is 58.0% of the total population of the world and which is a slightly smaller share than in 1980. The population of East Asia shows 1475 million and that of South Asia 2077 million. During 20 years after 1980, the population growth becomes much faster in South Asia than in East Asia. After 1980 the population growth rate in Asia as well as on the world average shows a declining trend. In Asia it indicates 1.72% for 1980-90 and 1.50% for 1990-2000, whereas on the world average it shows 1.76% and 1.49%, respectively. The population density for Asia showing 94 persons per square kilometer, slightly lower than that of Europe (99 persons) as of 1980, records 129 persons per square kilometer and exceeds that of Europe (105 persons) in 2000. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, the sex ratio for the world average indicates 100.7 males/100 females as of 1980, and it shows 104.1 for Asia. This is higher than that for the average of developing countries (103.2). In the year 2000 it is observed generally in the UN projections that the countries with a sex ratio of 100 and over as of 1980 show a decrease but those with the ratio smaller than 100 record an increase. Almost all Asian countries are projected to indicate a decrease in the proportion of population aged 0-14 against the increases in that aged 15-64 and in that aged 65 and older between 1980-2000. In 1980 the proportion of population aged 0-14 showed more than 40.0% in most of the Asian countries. In the year 2000 almost all the countries in East Asia and Eastern South Asia indicate larger than 60.0% in the proportion of adult population. Urbanization brings about the effects of reducing the speed of increase in a national population and of causing significant changes in sex and age structures of the national population. Considering the future acceleration of urbanization in Asian countries, the prospects of growth and changes in sex and age structures of populations in Asian countries may need to be revised from the standpoint of subnational population changes.
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  8. 8

    A survey of population in the ESCAP region.

    Asian and Pacific Population Programme News. 1985 Mar; 14(1):2-5.

    In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.
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  9. 9

    Socio-economic development and fertility decline in Costa Rica. Background paper prepared for the project on socio-economic development and fertility decline.

    Denton C; Acuna O; Gomez M; Fernandez M; Raabe C; Bogan M

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1985. 118 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/55)

    This summary of information on the development process in Costa Rica and its relation to fertility from 1950-70 is a revision of a study prepared for the Workshop on Socioeconomic Development and Fertility Decline held in Costa Rica in April 1982 as part of a UN comparative study of 5 developing countries. The report contains chapters on background information on fertility and the family, historical facts, and political organization of Costa Rica; the development strategy and its consequences vis a vis the composition of the gross domestic product, balance of trade, investment trends, the structure of the labor force, educational levels, and income; the allocation of public resources in public employment, public investment, credit, public expenditures, and the impact of resource allocation policies; changes in land tenure patterns; cultural factors affecting fertility, including education, women and their family roles, behavior in the home, women and politics, work and social security, and race and religion; changes in demographic variables, including nuptiality patterns, marital fertility, and natural fertility and birth control; characteristics and determining factors of the decline in fertility, including levels and trends, decline by age group, decline in terms of birth order, differences among population groups, how fertility declined, and history and role of family planning programs; and a discussion of the modernization process in Costa Rica and the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic variables. Beginning with the 1948 civil war, Costa Rica underwent drastic changes which were still reflected in national life as late as 1970. The industrial sector and the government bureaucracy have become decisive forces in development and the government has become the major employer. The state plays a key role in economic life, and state participation is a determining factor in extending medical and educational resources in the social field. The economically active population declined from 64% in 1960 to 55% in 1975 due to urbanization and migration from rural to urban areas, but there was an increase in economic participation of women, especially in urban areas. Increased educational level of the population in general and women in particular created changes in traditional attitudes and behavior. Although there is no specific explanation of why Costa Rica's fertility decline occurred, some observations about its determining factors and mechanisms can be made: the considerable economic development of the 1950s and 1960s brought about a rapid rise in per capita income and changes in the structure of production as well as substantial social development, increased opportunities for self-improvement for some social groups, and a rise in expectations. The size of the family became an aspect of conflict between rising expectations and increasing expenses. The National Family Planning Program helped accelerate the fertility decline.
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  10. 10

    Concise report on the world population situation in 1983: conditions, trends, prospects, policies.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)

    The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
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  11. 11

    Aging population and development, statement made at the European Follow-up Forum on Aging, Castelgandolfo, Italy, 6-11 September, 1981.

    Salas RM

    New York, N.Y., UNFPA, [1981]. 7 p.

    UNFPA's concern over the issue of aging and the agency's ability to help alleviate some of the problems caused by aging, is discussed. Aging is a feature of both developed and developing countries. In the world as a whole, the number of older people has nearly doubled since 1950, and 1/2 of them live in the less developed countries. Such a shift in the balance of ages will have many profound consequences for the world a generation or more hence. The capacity to confront successfully the wide variety of issues raised by aging is not determined by a country's economic position or its status as a developed or developing country. Many of the economic and social systems which permit the elderly to make a positive contribution, and hold them in most esteem as valued members of the community, are among the economically less developed. All countries need to develop an economic structure which caters to the needs and abilities of older people, either through social security, living and working facilities for older people, or as is the case of the less developed countries, through extended family networks.
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  12. 12

    Oral rehydration: technology and implementation.

    Rohde JE; Hendrata L

    In: Jelliffe DB, Jelliffe EF, ed. Advances in international maternal and child health. Vol. 1. New York, Oxford University Press, 1981. 82-97.

    Diarrheal disease is the major cause of death among children under 5 years of age; over 6 million deaths annually (the estimates range up to 18 million) from diarrhea are estimated to occur worldwide to children under 5 years of age. In terms of lives lost, nutritional impact or economic costs (both in health services and lost opportunity costs), diarrhea is a top priority in world health. The necessity of continuous fluid replacement in patients with diarrheal diseases was not recognized until 1947, when Egyptian cholera patients were treated with large volumes of intravenous saline throughout the entire duration of diarrhea. Later studies of fecal electrolyte losses and of the absorbability of a polyelectrolyte solution containing glucose led to the 1st successful clinical trial of oral fluid replacement in children using 2% glucose. Subsequent studies used a wide range of sodium concentration that has given acceptable results in trials around the world. A recent Scientific Working Group by the World Health Organization examined the composition of oral rehydration mixtures and suggested a sodium level of 90 meq/l as the optimum for a solution to be used worldwide; recommended concentrations for other solutes are 20 meq/l for potassium and 30 meq/l for bicarbonate. Field trials worldwide have demonstrated the safety and efficacy of this single solution for diarrheal treatment of all etiologies in all age groups. Oral rehydration therapy avoids certain risks of intravenous fluids such as inadvertent rapid overrehydration leading to cardiac failure, sepsis due to contaminated fluids, or electrolyte imbalances which can overwhelm renal and respiratory compensatory mechanisms. ORS (oral rehydration solution) should be freshly mixed in clean drinking water. Initial rehydration (5-10% of body weight) should be replaced, ideally using measured stool output to gauge volume needs. Once rehydration is completed (4-6 hours), regular food should be given to patients. When ORS is initiated early in the disease, there is substantial reduction in death rate and hospitalization. Although provision of packaged ORS in every home is the ideal, cost and logistical constraints make it impractical in many countries. Homemade solutions may provide the prospect of far wider coverage as well as an early start to rehydration.
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  13. 13

    Projection of world population (distinguishing more developed and less developed areas at present).

    Vavra Z

    In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 2. Selected papers and summaries: fertility, family planning, mortality. New York, UN, 1967. 49-53. (E/CONF.41/3)

    U.N. world population projections place the world population in the year 2000 at anywhere between 6000 million and 7400 million. The less developed areas of the world are growing more rapidly than the developed areas. This will mean that the developed areas, which accounted for nearly 1/3 of the world population in 1960, will only account for less than 1/4 by the end of the century. The annual rate of increase suggests that the tempo of growth may be slowing slightly. The developing areas are still growing at twice the rate of the developed areas. Tables present these population projections and various projections on age structure of future populations. The world population, especially that in the developed countries, is aging, with all the concomitant social changes which that occurrence entails. The general problem of population growth must be handled within a context of socioeconomic developmental planning for each nation.
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  14. 14

    World Population trends and prospects by country, 1950-2000: summary report of the 1978 assessment.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, UN, 1979. 98 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/33)

    The population projections presented are based on the cohort component method in which the population of each country classified by age and sex for the base year 1975 is projected forward on the basis of assumed future fertility, mortality, and migration rates. The world total population of 4,033 million in 1975 is projected to reach 6,199 million in 2000, about 55 million below the 1973 projection. The downward adjustment is the net result of projected fertility rates reflecting recent declines in some countries, and an upward adjustment of the bench-mark population of 1975 by 65 million, much of which is due to the upward revision of China's population from 839 to 895 million. For the less developed regions the current rate of growth is revised downward from 2.36% to 2.21% for l975-80. In the more developed regions the rate of growth is revised from .82 to .67 %. Future growth rates were revised from 1.94% to 1.84% for the less developed regions and from .59% to .51% for developed regions toward the last quinquennial period of this century. The percentage of the world living in less developed regions will increase from 72.9 in 1975 to 79.5 while the percentage for the more developed regions will decline from 27.1 to 20.5. The percentages will increase for Africa, Latin America, and South Asia but will decrease for North America, East Asia, Europe, and the U.S.S.R.
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  15. 15

    Thailand: report of mission on needs assessment for population assistance.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, UNFPA, June 1979. (Report No. 13) 151 p

    This report is intended to serve, and has already to some extent so served, as part of the background material used by the United Nations Fund for Population Activities to evaluate project proposals as they relate to basic country needs for population assistance to Thailand, and in broader terms to define priorities of need in working towards eventual self-reliance in implementing the country's population activities. The function of the study is to determine the extent to which activities in the field of population provide Thailand with the fundamental capacity to deal with major population problems in accordance with its development policies. The assessment of population activities in Thailand involves a 3-fold approach. The main body of the report examines 7 categories of population activities rather broadly in the context of 10 elements considered to reflect effect ve government action. The 7 categories of population activities are: 1) basic data collection; 2) population dynamics; 3) formulation and evaluation of population policies and programs; 4) implementation of policies; 5) family planning programs; 6) communication a and education; and 7) special programs. The 10 elements comprise: 1) decennial census of population, housing, and agriculture; 2) an effective registration system; 3) assessment of the implications of population trends; 4) formulation of a comprehensive national population policy; 5) implementation of action programs integrated with related programs of economic and social development; 6) continued reduction in the population growth rate; 7) effective utilization of the services of private and voluntary organizations in action programs; 8) a central administrative unit to coordinate action programs; 9) evaluation of the national capacity in technical training, research, and production of equipment and supplies; and 10) maintenance of continuing liason and cooperation with other countries and with regional and international organizations.
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  16. 16

    Conditions of fertility decline in developing countries, 1965-75.


    Studies in Family Planning. 1978 May; 9(5):89-147.

    A macroanalysis of the correlates of fertility decline in developing countries for the period 1965-75. The analysis focuses on how much of the fertility decline is associated with socioeconomic variables such as health, education, economic status, and urbanization, or with "modernization" as a whole, and how much with population policies and programs designed to reduce rates of growth. The data are examined in a variety of ways: 1) simple correlations among the variables; 2) multiple regression analysis using both 1970 values of socioeconomic variables and, for the alternative lag theory, 1960 values; 3) change in the socioeconomic variables over time; 4) a special form of regression analysis called path analysis; 5) a relatively new type of analysis called exploratory data analysis; 6) relation of socioeconomic level and program efforts to both absolute and percentage declines in fertility; 7) crosstabulations of program effort with an index of socioeconomic variables. Such data and analyses show that the level of "modernization" as reflected by 7 socioeconomic factors has a substantial relationship to fertility decline, but also that family planning programs have a significant, independent effect over and above the effect of socioeconomic factors. The key finding probably is that 2 (social setting and program effort) go together most effectively. Countries that rank well on socioeconomic variables and also make substantial program effort have had on average much more fertility decline than have countries with one or the other, and far more than those with neither. Finally, the relationship between predicted and observed crude birth rate decline for the 94 developing countries over this period is illustrated for different combinations of actors, and an attempt is made to estimate the quantitative impact of the major conditions upon the intermediate variables traditionally assumed to account for crude birth rate change.(AUTHOR ABSTRACT)
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  17. 17

    Demographic-economic model building for Japan.

    Ogawa N; Sadahiro A; Kondo M; Ezaki M

    In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Modelling economic and demographic development. New York, United Nations, 1983. 117-223. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 54)

    This study uses a longterm demographic-economic model to analyze the effects of the rapid aging of the Japanese population on various aspects of the economy and government programs. It is assumed that the quantitative analysis of the interrelationships between age-structural changes and the socioeconomic system provides a useful basis for Japanese government planners to formulate policy measures to cope with problems arising in connection with an aging population. The study draws on population, economic, and social security submodels in a series of simulation experiments. In the Standard Case, the total fertility rate falls due to economic progress and the rising age at 1st marriage, mortality improves as a result of increased per capita medical expenditures, and population grows at a diminishing rate after peaking at 131.3 million in 2007. The model further projects an increase in the percentage of the population age 65 years and over from 9.1% in 1980 to 23.9% in 2021 and a corresponding decrease in the population ages 15-64 years from 67.4% to 61.8%, Per capita real GNP is projected to continue to rise in the 1980-2025 period. However, the decreasing growth rate of the labor force, increasing financial resources for social security programs, and decline in the average hours worked by those in the labor force are expected to produce an economic slow-down, particularly in the early part of the 21st century. 5 policy measures are proposed to cope with this lowered rate of economic growth: 1) acceleration of the speed of technological progress to compensate for the shortage of young workers; 2) extension of retirement age to ease financial pressures on public pension schemes and retain the economic contributions of aged workers; 3) updating of the skills of aged workers through government vocational retraining programs; 4) the modification of public pension schemes to make benefit provision more selective, and adjustment of the amount of benefits paid out by extending the pensionable age for each scheme; and 5) review of the effectiveness and efficiency of various public medical plans, with attention to unnecessary use of medical services and improvement of preventive interventions.
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