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New York, UNFPA, June 1979. (Report No. 13) 151 pThis report is intended to serve, and has already to some extent so served, as part of the background material used by the United Nations Fund for Population Activities to evaluate project proposals as they relate to basic country needs for population assistance to Thailand, and in broader terms to define priorities of need in working towards eventual self-reliance in implementing the country's population activities. The function of the study is to determine the extent to which activities in the field of population provide Thailand with the fundamental capacity to deal with major population problems in accordance with its development policies. The assessment of population activities in Thailand involves a 3-fold approach. The main body of the report examines 7 categories of population activities rather broadly in the context of 10 elements considered to reflect effect ve government action. The 7 categories of population activities are: 1) basic data collection; 2) population dynamics; 3) formulation and evaluation of population policies and programs; 4) implementation of policies; 5) family planning programs; 6) communication a and education; and 7) special programs. The 10 elements comprise: 1) decennial census of population, housing, and agriculture; 2) an effective registration system; 3) assessment of the implications of population trends; 4) formulation of a comprehensive national population policy; 5) implementation of action programs integrated with related programs of economic and social development; 6) continued reduction in the population growth rate; 7) effective utilization of the services of private and voluntary organizations in action programs; 8) a central administrative unit to coordinate action programs; 9) evaluation of the national capacity in technical training, research, and production of equipment and supplies; and 10) maintenance of continuing liason and cooperation with other countries and with regional and international organizations.
In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Modelling economic and demographic development. New York, United Nations, 1983. 117-223. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 54)This study uses a longterm demographic-economic model to analyze the effects of the rapid aging of the Japanese population on various aspects of the economy and government programs. It is assumed that the quantitative analysis of the interrelationships between age-structural changes and the socioeconomic system provides a useful basis for Japanese government planners to formulate policy measures to cope with problems arising in connection with an aging population. The study draws on population, economic, and social security submodels in a series of simulation experiments. In the Standard Case, the total fertility rate falls due to economic progress and the rising age at 1st marriage, mortality improves as a result of increased per capita medical expenditures, and population grows at a diminishing rate after peaking at 131.3 million in 2007. The model further projects an increase in the percentage of the population age 65 years and over from 9.1% in 1980 to 23.9% in 2021 and a corresponding decrease in the population ages 15-64 years from 67.4% to 61.8%, Per capita real GNP is projected to continue to rise in the 1980-2025 period. However, the decreasing growth rate of the labor force, increasing financial resources for social security programs, and decline in the average hours worked by those in the labor force are expected to produce an economic slow-down, particularly in the early part of the 21st century. 5 policy measures are proposed to cope with this lowered rate of economic growth: 1) acceleration of the speed of technological progress to compensate for the shortage of young workers; 2) extension of retirement age to ease financial pressures on public pension schemes and retain the economic contributions of aged workers; 3) updating of the skills of aged workers through government vocational retraining programs; 4) the modification of public pension schemes to make benefit provision more selective, and adjustment of the amount of benefits paid out by extending the pensionable age for each scheme; and 5) review of the effectiveness and efficiency of various public medical plans, with attention to unnecessary use of medical services and improvement of preventive interventions.