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The degree of success achieved in the population projections for Latin America made since 1950: sources of error: data and studies needed in order to improve the basis for calculating projections.
In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 3. Selected papers and summaries: projections, measurement of population trends. New York, UN, 1967. 27-33. (E/CONF.41/4)High, medium, and low population size and age-sex structure projections, prepared by the United Nations in 1954-1955 for 15 Latin American countries, were compared to recent census data in an effort to evaluate the success of the projections, to identify sources of error, and to suggest ways to improve projections in the future. For the countries as a whole, the high projections underestimated the actual population by 3.35%, the medium projections underestimated the population by 4.5%, and the low projections underestimated the population by 7%. Deviation for individual projections ranged from a 14.03% overestimation of the Peruvian population to a 15.05% underestimation of the Costa Rican population. In general, projections were considered unsuccessful except for those made for Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and Argentina. The projections for each country were examined and the sources of error were identified. In some cases, even though the projections were not grossly deviant from the actual population, the results were due to a series of errors which happened to cancel each other out. Errors were due either to the inappropriate use of methodological procedures or to the failure to adequately anticipate fertility, mortality, and migration trends. Errors can be minimized in the future by improving the population base data on which the projections are made. Although progress was made in improving census-taking in Latin America during the 1950s, censuses taken since 1960 have once again declined in quality. Furthermore, many countries still lack adequate vital records systems. Until the quality of the vital records and census systems is improved, sample surveys should be used to develop population base data for making projections. There is also a need to improve data gathering in reference to international migration patterns and trends.
In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 2. Selected papers and summaries: fertility, family planning, mortality. New York, UN, 1967. 49-53. (E/CONF.41/3)U.N. world population projections place the world population in the year 2000 at anywhere between 6000 million and 7400 million. The less developed areas of the world are growing more rapidly than the developed areas. This will mean that the developed areas, which accounted for nearly 1/3 of the world population in 1960, will only account for less than 1/4 by the end of the century. The annual rate of increase suggests that the tempo of growth may be slowing slightly. The developing areas are still growing at twice the rate of the developed areas. Tables present these population projections and various projections on age structure of future populations. The world population, especially that in the developed countries, is aging, with all the concomitant social changes which that occurrence entails. The general problem of population growth must be handled within a context of socioeconomic developmental planning for each nation.