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New York, New York, United Nations, 1990. xiii, 420 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/98)2 groups expressed a need for this 2nd edition volume of stable population age distributions. Easily accessible information on the effect of demographic changes upon age distributions and dependency burdens is needed by planners of developing countries, while demographers are interested in construction demographic parameters under conditions of deficient data. A set of model stable age distributions, a series of intrinsic growth rates from 0-4%, intrinsic birth and death rates, percentages of populations in the 15-59 age groups, and child, elderly, and total dependency rates are therefore presented in this volume for the Latin American, Chilean, South Asian, Far East Asian, and General patterns of mortality. The Latin American pattern exhibits high mortality in the infant, childhood, and young adult years, with lower levels in the older ages. The Chilean pattern is one of extremely high infant mortality relative to general childhood mortality, while the South Asian pattern shows extremely high mortality under age 15 and over age 55. Low mortality is evidenced in the prime ages. The Far Eastern pattern exhibits relatively low mortality at younger ages, with high death rates at older ages. The General pattern is an average of these 4. Rates are defined, then calculated in an improved manner. UN model life table characteristics are also discussed and presented in an easier-to-read format. 420 pages of tables constitute the bulk of the volume.
China: long-term development issues and options. The report of a mission sent to China by the World Bank.
Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985. xiii, 183 p. (World Bank Country Economic Report)This report summarizes the conclusions of a World Bank study undertaken in 1984 to identify the key development issues China is expected to face in the next 20 years. Among the areas addressed by chapters in this monograph are agricultural prospects, energy development, spatial issues, international economic strategy, managing industrial technology, human development, mobilizing financial resources, and development management. China's economic prospects are viewed as dependinding upon success in mobilizing and effectively using all available resources, especially people. This in turn will depend on sucess in reforming the system of economic management, including progress in 3 areas: 1) greater use of market regulation to stimulate innovation and efficiency; 2) stronger planning, combining indirect with direct economic control; and 3) modification and extension of social institutions and policies to maintain the fairness in distribution that is basic to socialism in the face of the greater inequality and instability that may result from market regulation and indirect controls. Over the next 2 decades, China can be expected to become a middle-income country. The government has set the goal of quadrupling the gross value of industrial and agricultural output between 1980 and 2000 and increasing per capita income from US$300 to $800. China's size and past emphasis on local self-sufficiency offer opportunities for enormous economic gains through increased specialization and trade among localities. Increased rural-urban migration seems probable and desirable, although an increase in urban services and infrastructure will be required. The expected slow rate of population increase is an important foundation for China's favorable economic growth prospects. On the other hand, it may not be desirable to hold fertility below the replacement level for very long, given the effects this would have on the population's age structure. The increase in the proportion of elderly people will be a serious social issue in the next century, and reforms of the social security system need to be considered.