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[The Permanent Household Survey: provisional results, 1985] Enquete Permanente Aupres des Menages: resultats provisoires 1985
Abidjan, Ivory Coast, Ivory Coast. Ministere de l'Economie et des Finances. Direction de la Statistique, 1985. 76 p.This preliminary statistical report provides an overview of selected key economic and social indicators drawn from a data collection system recently implemented in the Ivory Coast. The Ivory Coast's Direction de la Statistique and the World Bank's Development Research Department are collaborating, under the auspices of the Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study, to interview 160 households per month on a continuous basis for 10 months out of the year. Data are collected concerning population size, age structure, sex distribution, family size, nationality, proportion of female heads of household, fertility, migration, health, education, type of residence, occupations, employment status, financial assistance among family members, and consumption. Annual statistical reports based on each round of the survey are to be published, along with brief semiannual updates.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1992. vii, 46 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/127)Methods pertaining to the preparation of migration data for subnational population projections as of 1992 are explained. A brief review of sources of data for migration projections (censuses, surveys, and registration data) reveals that the requirements are base period estimates of the level or rate of migration between regions, estimates of the age and sex distribution of migrants, and any indicators that show likely future trends. In a discussion of the measurement of the volume of migration from census date, data on residence at a fixed prior time, estimates based on previous place of residence and duration of residence, and estimates of net migration of census survival/ratio methods are relevant. Estimates of the distribution of migrants by age and sex are explained based on different age and sex data: on place of residence at a fixed prior date, on place of previous residence and duration of residence, on age distributions from surveys, and from registers. Also explained is the use of model migration schedules when there is little or no information about age. Baseline migration projections for future estimates which are reasonable and account for variable rates of migration by region are discussed. The objectives desired are sometimes contradictory in that using a long time frame in order to average out random or abnormal fluctuations conflicts with continuing recent nonrandom or unusual changes so that emergent trends will be projected; objectives are also to use the most recent data available which account for shifts in migration patterns and to ensure convergence of migration rates toward equilibrium at some future point. Alternative strategies are provided as well as adjustments to provide consistent results. Adjustments involve the projection of numbers of migrants rather than rates, the use of out-migrant data on destination to adjust in-migration, and the scaling of in-migration to equal out-migration. Recommendations for data collection are presented. Internal migration data are best served by census data which asks the question about place of residence at a fixed prior time preceding the census and with a time interval designation that is of interest for projections. Single year of age and prior year questions and 5 years before are desired due to the need for short-range projections and planning. The 5-year prior place of residence question must be available by current region of residence and age and sex. Specific examples of multiregional projections are included.
In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
New York, New York, UNFPA, 1984 May. xii, 156 p. (Report No. 67)A Needs Assessment and Program Development Mission visited the People's Republic of China from March 7 to April 16, 1983 to: review and analyze the country's population situation within the context of national population goals as well as population related development objectives, strategies, and programs; make recommendations on the future orientation and scope of national objectives and programs for strengthening or establishing new objectives, strategies, and programs; and make recommendations on program areas in need of external assistance within the framework of the recommended national population program and for geographical areas. This report summarizes the needs and recommendations in regard to: population policies and policy-related research; demographic research and training; basic population data collection and analysis; maternal and child health and family planning services; management training support for family planning services; logistics of contraceptive supply; management information system; family planning communication and education; family planning program research and evaluation; contraceptive production; research in human reproduction and contraceptives; population education and dissemination of population information; and special groups and multisectoral activities. The report also presents information on the national setting (geographical and cultural features, government and administration, the economy, and the evolution of socioeconomic development planning) and demographic features (population size, characteristics, and distribution, nationwide and demographic characteristics in geographical core areas). Based on its assessment of needs, the Mission identified mjaor priorities for assistance in the population field. Because of China's size and vast needs, external assistance for population programs would be diluted if provided to all provincial and lower administrative levels. Thus, the Mission suggests that a substantial portion of available resources be concentrated in 3 provinces as core areas: Sichuan, the most populous province (100,220,000 people by the end of 1982); Guandong, the province with the highest birthrate (25/1000); and Jiangsu, the most densely populated province (608 persons/square kilometer. In all the government has identified 11 provinces needing special attention in the next few years: Anhui, Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jilin, Shaanxi and Shandong, in addition to Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan.
Maandstatistiek Van de Bevolking. 1985 Feb; 33(2):41-80.An analysis of international migration to and from the Netherlands in 1983 is presented. The demographic characteristics of both immigrants and emigrants are described, with attention to marital status, family relationship, sex, age, region of origin, and urban or rural residence. An appendix is included on the new U.N. recommendations concerning the collection of international migration statistics and the extent to which the Dutch data conform to these recommendations. (summary in ENG) (ANNOTATION)
[Washington, D.C., International Bank for Reconstruction and Development], 1981 Jul. 375 p.Population projections -- 1980-2000 and long-term (stationary population) are presented in tables for Africa, the United States and Canada, Latin America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. The base year for the projection of base total population and age/sex composition is 1980. The total population in 1980 was taken from a variety of sources, but the principal source was the United Nations Population Division -- "World Population Trends and Prospects by Country, 1950-2025: Summary Report of the 1980 Assessment, 1980", a computer printout. The base year mortality levels used in the projection of mortality level and trend are in general the same as those used in the recent United Nations projections. The principal source of the base fertility rates was also the revised United Nations population projections. Throughout the projections it was assumed that international migration would have no appreciable impact. Population projection was prepared separately for every country in the world. Since many countries reached stability only after 175 years of projection, the results of the projection are presented at 5-year intervals for the 1980-2000 period and at 25 year intervals thereafter. For each of the 165 separate units, the following information is presented in the accompanying tables: population by sex and 5-year age groups; birth rate, death rate, and rate of natural increase; gross reproduction rate, total fertility rate; expectation of life at birth and infant mortality rates for males and females separately; and net reproduction rates. According to this projection the total world population would increase from 4.416 billion in 1980 to 6.114 billion in the year 2000. The average growth rate during 1980-2000 would be about 1.63% per year decreasing from 1.71% in 1980 to 1.42% in the year 2000. The birth rate would decline by 5 points and the death rate by 2 points. The share of the population in less developed regions would be 1.94% per year compared to 0.59% per year for more developed regions. The estimated hypothetical stationary population of the world according to the present projection is 10.1 billion.
The degree of success achieved in the population projections for Latin America made since 1950: sources of error: data and studies needed in order to improve the basis for calculating projections.
In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 3. Selected papers and summaries: projections, measurement of population trends. New York, UN, 1967. 27-33. (E/CONF.41/4)High, medium, and low population size and age-sex structure projections, prepared by the United Nations in 1954-1955 for 15 Latin American countries, were compared to recent census data in an effort to evaluate the success of the projections, to identify sources of error, and to suggest ways to improve projections in the future. For the countries as a whole, the high projections underestimated the actual population by 3.35%, the medium projections underestimated the population by 4.5%, and the low projections underestimated the population by 7%. Deviation for individual projections ranged from a 14.03% overestimation of the Peruvian population to a 15.05% underestimation of the Costa Rican population. In general, projections were considered unsuccessful except for those made for Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and Argentina. The projections for each country were examined and the sources of error were identified. In some cases, even though the projections were not grossly deviant from the actual population, the results were due to a series of errors which happened to cancel each other out. Errors were due either to the inappropriate use of methodological procedures or to the failure to adequately anticipate fertility, mortality, and migration trends. Errors can be minimized in the future by improving the population base data on which the projections are made. Although progress was made in improving census-taking in Latin America during the 1950s, censuses taken since 1960 have once again declined in quality. Furthermore, many countries still lack adequate vital records systems. Until the quality of the vital records and census systems is improved, sample surveys should be used to develop population base data for making projections. There is also a need to improve data gathering in reference to international migration patterns and trends.
New York, UN, 1977. 183 p. (Population Studies No. 60)The projections in this report cover the years 1970-2000. Quinquennial projections were prepared by sex and 5-year groups for each of 155 countries, 8 major areas, and 24 regions. Projections by sex and single years of age for population between ages 5-24 are provided for every region and country. Other demographic indicators were calculated for each region including population totals for males and females, sex ratio, percentage distribution by age category, dependency ratio, median age, crude birth and death rates, general and total fertility rate, life expectancy, and gross and net reproduction rate. In 1975 the world population was estimated at 4 billion; the medium variant projection for the year 2000 is 6.25 billion. The rate of growth is estimated at 1.9% for 1970. A downward trend is expected for 1985 when growth will slow to 1.6%. There will continue to be wide disparities in the rates of growth of developed and less developed nations. In the less developed regions the annual rate of growth is expected to maintain its current 2.3-2.4% for about 15 years, 1970-85, reaching 1.9%, after a downward trend, by 2000. The more developed regions should decline from .9% to .6%. The highest average annual rate of growth is in Latin America, 2.7%, (1970-5). In 1975 Africa had the highest annual rate of growth, expected to exceed 2.9% from 1985-2000. Only Eastern Africa and Middle America are expected to exceed 3% up to 1990-95.
New York, UN, 1979. 279 p. (Population studies No. 62)This report was prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat on the basis of inputs by the Division, the International Labour Organisation, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, and the World Health Organization. Tables are presented for sex compositions of populations; demographic variables; percentage rates of change of unstandardized maternal mortality rates and ratios; population enumerated in the United States and born in Latin America; urban and rural population, annual rates of growth, and percentage of urban in total population, the world, the more developed and the less developed regions, 1950-75; crude death rates, by rural and urban residence, selected more developed countries; childhood mortality rates, age 1-4 years; and many others. The world population amounted to nearly 4 billion in 1975, a 60% increase over the 1950 population of 2.5 billion. The global increase is about 2%. The average death rate in developing areas has dropped from 25/1000 in 1950 to about 15/1000, a 40% decline. Estimates of birth rates in developing countries are 40-45 for 1950 and 35-40/1000 for 1975. Most of the shifts in vital trends in the less developed regions are still at an early stage or of limited geographical scope.
Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, September 1978. (International Research Document No. 6) 12pCompiling population data for Afghanistan is made difficult by the nomadic population. Estimates of their numbers range from 1-2 million people, 9-14% of the total. A 1972-73 survey of the settled population accumulated data from approximately 21,000 households and 120,000 individuals. Pregnancy and marital histories were acquired from 10,000 women. The age-specific fertility rate was 8 per woman; crude birth rate, 43/1000. Estimated life expectancy for males was 34-42 years, for females, 36-41 years. The crude death rate is 28-32/1000. Of the 10,020,099 total settled population, 5,373,249 were male, 4,646,850 were female. The Afghan Family Guidance Association opened the first family planning clinic in 1968. By 1972 there were 18 clinics in operation. When surveyed, 3% of women over 15 knew about family planning, only 1/3 of these had used a family planning method. 66% males and 90% females over 15 were ever-married. About 11% of those over 6 years were literate, 18.7% males, 2.8% females.
Population Bulletin of the United Nations. 1982; (14):17-30.UN medium range projections prepared in the 1980 assessment projected the population of individual countries up to the year 2025. The long range projections discussed here were prepared by projecting the population of 8 major world regions from 2025-2100. The purpose of the projection was to observe the implications of the changes from the 1978 assessment made in the 1980 medium range projections on the long range projections of the world's populations. As in previous projections, high, medium, and low variants were prepared in which fertility is assumed to be constant at the replacement level but at different times in the future. In addition, these projections contain 2 variants not previously prepared--namely, the growth and decline variants, in which the ultimate net reproduction rate is 1.05 and 0.95, respectively. In all the variants, expectation of life at birth is assumed to reach 75 years for males and 80 for females. According to the current medium variant projection, the earth's population will become stationary after 2095 at 10.2 billion persons, compared with a total of 10.5 billion projected in the 1978 assessment. The lower projection is largely attributable to a recent decline in the growth rate of several countries in South Asia which was greater than previously assumed. When the world population becomes stationary, both crude birth and death rates would be about 13/1000. In the decline variant, total population would peak at 7.7 billion in 2055, then decline gradually to 7.2 billion in 2100. The total population as projected by the growth variant would equal 14.9 billion in 2100 and would still be growing slowly. Between 1980 and 2050, 95% of the world's growth will occur in the currently less developed regions. Their share of total population will increase from 75-85% during that period. The age structure in all regions is expected to converge to 1 in which the median age is 39 years, the proportion both below age 15 and above age 64 is about 19% each, and the dependency ratio is about 60. A precise degree of accuracy cannot be specified, but the argument is made that the actual future population of the world is very likely to fall within the range of the projection variants and probably not far from the medium variant. (author's)