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Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):185-192.I was asked by the organizers of this international conference to discuss, in my presentation, the effects of ageing on competitiveness. I will start by arguing that the key economic issue involved by ageing is growth rather than competitiveness per se, as ageing may reduce the growth potential of nations. I will however point out that there is nothing unavoidable about this effect of ageing on growth. Reforming pensions and labour market institutions in order to better exploit returns from experience, it is possible to counteract the effects of a declining workforce on growth and sustain a relatively high rate of capital accumulation even under older societies. But there are strong political obstacles to these reforms. These political obstacles should be fully understood, it is still a matter of positive economics, and possibly counteracted (the domain of normative economics). (excerpt)
Proceeding of the World Population Conference, Rome, Italy, 31 August-10 September 1954. Summary report.
New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 1955. 207 p.The 1954 World Population Conference was the 1st scientific conference on the problems of population to be held under the auspices of the United Nations. This document describes the organization of the conference and contains a list of the 28 meetings held, the topics of discussion of each meeting, a list of the papers contributed and their authors, and a summary report of each meeting. Annex A provides a list of the officers of the conference and members of cimmittees. Annex B lists the participants and contributors. Topics discussed include mortality trends; demographic statistics--quality, techniques of measurement and analysis; fertility trends; new census undertakings; migration; legislation, administrative programs and services for population control; population projection methods and prospects; preliterate peoples; age distribution; socioeconomic consequences of an aging population; demographic aspects of socioeconomic development; design and control of demographic field studies; agricultural and industrial development; genetics and population; research on fertility and intelligence; social implications of population changes; recruitment and training of demographic researchers and teachers; forecast for world population growth and distribution; and economic and social implications of the present population trends.
New Delhi, India, Department of Family Welfare, 1994. , 61 p.The country report prepared by India for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development opens by noting that India's population has increased from 361.1 million in 1951 to 846.3 million in 1991. In describing the demographic context of this, the largest democracy in the world, information is given on the growth rate, the sex ratio, the age structure, marital status, demographic transition, internal migration, urbanization, the economically active population and the industrial structure, literacy and education, data collection and analysis, and the outlook for the future. The second section of the report discusses India's population policy, planning, and programmatic framework. Topics covered include the national perception of population issues, the evolution of the population policy, the national family welfare program (infrastructure and services; maternal and child health; information, education, and communication; and achievements), the relationship of women to population and development, the relationship of population issues and sectoral activities, the environment, adolescents and youth, and AIDS. The third section presents operational aspects of family welfare program implementation and covers political and national support, the implementation strategy, the new action plan, program achievements and constraints, monitoring and evaluation, and financial aspects. The national action plan for the future is the topic of the fourth chapter and is discussed in terms of emerging and priority concerns, the role and relevance of the World Population Plan of Action and other international instruments, international migration, science and technology, and economic stabilization, structural reforms, and international financial support. After a 24-point summary, demographic information is appended in 17 tables and charts.
New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Modelling economic and demographic development. New York, United Nations, 1983. 117-223. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 54)This study uses a longterm demographic-economic model to analyze the effects of the rapid aging of the Japanese population on various aspects of the economy and government programs. It is assumed that the quantitative analysis of the interrelationships between age-structural changes and the socioeconomic system provides a useful basis for Japanese government planners to formulate policy measures to cope with problems arising in connection with an aging population. The study draws on population, economic, and social security submodels in a series of simulation experiments. In the Standard Case, the total fertility rate falls due to economic progress and the rising age at 1st marriage, mortality improves as a result of increased per capita medical expenditures, and population grows at a diminishing rate after peaking at 131.3 million in 2007. The model further projects an increase in the percentage of the population age 65 years and over from 9.1% in 1980 to 23.9% in 2021 and a corresponding decrease in the population ages 15-64 years from 67.4% to 61.8%, Per capita real GNP is projected to continue to rise in the 1980-2025 period. However, the decreasing growth rate of the labor force, increasing financial resources for social security programs, and decline in the average hours worked by those in the labor force are expected to produce an economic slow-down, particularly in the early part of the 21st century. 5 policy measures are proposed to cope with this lowered rate of economic growth: 1) acceleration of the speed of technological progress to compensate for the shortage of young workers; 2) extension of retirement age to ease financial pressures on public pension schemes and retain the economic contributions of aged workers; 3) updating of the skills of aged workers through government vocational retraining programs; 4) the modification of public pension schemes to make benefit provision more selective, and adjustment of the amount of benefits paid out by extending the pensionable age for each scheme; and 5) review of the effectiveness and efficiency of various public medical plans, with attention to unnecessary use of medical services and improvement of preventive interventions.