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[A model of world population growth as an experiment in systematic research] Model' rosta naseleniya zemli kak opyt sistemnogo issledovaniya.
VOPROSY STATISTIKI. 1997; (8):46-57.A mathematical model was developed for the estimation of global population growth, and the estimates were compared with those of the UN and covered the stretch of 4.4 million years B.C. to the years 2175 and 2500 A.D. The estimates were also broken down into human, geological, and technological historical periods. The model showed that human population would stabilize at the level of 14 billion around 2500 A.D. and 13 billion around 2200 A.D., in accordance with UN projections. It also revealed the history of human population growth through the following stages (UN figures are listed in parentheses): 100,000, about 1.6 million years ago; 5 (1-5) million, 35,000 B.C.; 21 (10-15) million, 7000 B.C.; 46 (47) million, 2000 B.C.; 93 (100-230) million, at the time of Christ; 185 (275-345) million, 1000 A.D.; 366 (450-540) million, 1500 A.D.; 887 (907) million, 1800 A.D.; 1158 (1170) million, 1850 A.D.; 1656 (1650-1710) million, 1900 A.D.; 2812 (2515) million, 1950 A.D.; 5253 (5328) million, 1990 A.D.; 6265 (6261) million, 2000 A.D.; 10,487 (10,019) million, 2050 A.D.; 12,034 (11,186) million, 2100 A.D.; 12,648 (11,543) million, 2150 A.D.; 12,946 (11,600) million, 2200 A.D.; and 13,536 million, 2500 A.D. The model advanced the investigation of phenomena by studying the interactions between economical, technological, social, cultural, and biological processes. The analysis showed that humanity has reached a critical phase in its growth and that development in each period depended on external, not internal, factors. This permits the formulation of the principle of demographic imperative (distinct from the Malthusian principle), which states that resources determine the speed and extent of the growth of population.
[The second session of the Global Commission on AIDS in Brazzaville, the Congo, 8-10 November 1989] Vtoroe zasedanie Globalnoi komissii po SPID v Brazzavile, Kongo, 8-10.11.89.
ZHURNAL MIKROBIOLOGII, EPIDEMIOLOGII I IMMUNOBIOLOGII. 1990 Nov; (11):119-20.The Global Commission on AIDS is a duly constituted organ of the World Health Organization established in 1989. Its functions are the examination and elucidation of the global progression of epidemics, especially that of the HIV, and fighting the spread of HIV infections. It has 23 members. There was evidence of the spread of AIDS in connection with narcotic use (contaminated needles), thus combating drug use was a major factor in halting its spread. At the end of the 1980s the AIDS epidemic was graver than expected. Despite the global strategy and the change of the behavior of high risk groups, AIDS continues to spread. The number of the infected increased in eastern Europe, western Africa, and southeastern Asia mainly as a result of drug use and prostitution. The strategy includes fighting against prejudice and discrimination, promotion of sexual education, and the use of condoms. The strategy for the 1990s includes strengthening clinical research and therapy; the development of a vaccine; ethics and human rights; and the study of prostitution, the behavior of clients and prostitutes, and very sexually active groups. The widespread practice of blood transfusion during delivery in Africa, insufficient nutrition, and anemia was detailed by the Congolese member. The danger of spreading AIDS further by the contaminated blood of donors who obtain false AIDS tests was mentioned. A special session of the General Assembly of the UN could address the issues of narcotic demand, combat the danger of cocaine use, and suggest appropriate legislative measures. The 3rd meeting was scheduled for March 1990 in Geneva with an agenda on safe blood transfusion; quarantine and isolation; and developing a vaccine within 5 years whose testing on humans poses ethical problems, as observing the law without violation of human rights is required.
[Statistical country yearbook: members of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, 1984] Statisticheskii ezhegodnik stran--chlenov Soveta Ekonomicheskoi Vzaimopomoshchi, 1984.
Moscow, USSR, Finansy i Statistika, 1984. 456 p.This yearbook presents general statistical information for member countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. A section on population (pp. 7-14) includes data on area and population; population according to the latest census; average annual population; birth, death, and natural increase rates; infant mortality; average life expectancy; marriages and divorces; urban and rural population; and population distribution by social group. (ANNOTATION)
[Some aspects of regulating family size in India] Nekotorye aspekty regulirovaniya razmerov semi v Indii.
Sovetskoe Zdravookhranenie. 1970; 29:58-63.The family planning campaign that has been carried out in India is described. The methods of reducing the birthrate have been the prime concern of this burgeoning population, but this goal entails more than just contraception and quantitative decreases: achievements in improving the standard of living, raising levels of education in both general areas and in the understanding of India's demographic postion and needs, and in promoting the greater expansion of public health services. The role of WHO and UNICEF in the family planning program of this and other developing countries is examine. WHO/UNICEF maintain a policy of nonintervention in the adminstration of these measures, do not hold the country responsible for recommendations or for the encouragment of certain policies, and maintain that these countries must decide indpendently upon which policy to undertake.(Author's, modified)
SOTSIOLOGICHESKIE ISSLEDOVANIIA. 1982 Oct-Dec; 9(4):124-6.Within the framework of a UN resolution calling for censuses to be carried out in all countries of the world between 1975-1985, the Peoples Republic of China allocated 360 million yuan and used 15.6 million dollars of UN funding to prepare for conducting their census beginning in July 1982. The 1st census of the Chinese mainland was in 1953, showing a population of 601 million. By the beginning of the 1980s, UN estimates put the count at 1.02 billion, an increase of 420 million in 30 years, 1/2 of which are under the age of 20. The new census form includes more questions, and to prevent errors it will be taken twice, first by local census takers and then by census takers from outside the local area. Within the larger cities the 2nd census from previous census counts determined % error in size of population and a .17% error in place of birth. In backward areas the errors are respectively .09 and 4%. Full tabulation should be completed by June 1984, and a report of final results should be forthcoming by the end of 1985. An important aim of the census is to consolidate controls over population growth and to enforce further the rule of "1 woman, 1 child," which, although it has succeeded in dropping the population growth rate from 2.34 to 1.17 since 1971, now faces the problem of hundreds of millions of young Chinese born during the 1950s and 1960s reaching marriageable age. The census faces problems of weak communications and low education level among the populace, as well as resistance from local leaders, who are already heavily burdened with projects.