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Washington, D.C., World Bank, 2005.  p. (World Bank Working Paper No. 68)In recent years, Europe and Central Asia has experienced the world’s fastest growing HIV/AIDS epidemic. Yet, in the Western Balkan countries the HIV prevalence rate is under 0.1 percent, which ranks among the lowest. This may be due to a low level of infection among the population—or partly due to inadequate surveillance systems. All major contributing factors for the breakout of an HIV/AIDS epidemic are present in the Western Balkans. HIV/AIDS disproportionably affects youth (80 percent of HIV-infected people are 30 years old or younger). Most of the Western Balkan countries have very young populations, which have been affected by the process of social transition, wars, unemployment and other factors. Among youth, there is generalized use of drugs and sexual risk behavior. Therefore, the number of cases of HIV has been increasing, especially in Serbia, and the incidence of Hepatitis C has clearly increased, which suggests that sharing of infected needles is practiced by injecting drug users. Apart from human suffering, an HIV/AIDS epidemic can have a significant impact on costs of care for individuals, households, health services and society as a whole. This study has found weak public health systems and gaps in financing and institutional capacity necessary to implement evidence-based and cost-effective HIV/AIDS Strategies. Political commitment must increase for action to occur promptly. Prevention interventions are cost effective and, in the short term, affordable with own-country resources. Medium- and long-term interventions would require donor assistance. Longer-term interventions would aim at preventing poverty, exclusion and unemployment, for example, by empowering young people to participate in the regional and global labor market.
Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2006 Jun; 6(6):328.Ukraine plans to restructure a key HIV/ AIDS and tuberculosis control project to help ensure disbursement of a US$60 million loan recently suspended by the World Bank. Alla Shcherbinska (Ukrainian Centre to Combat HIV/AIDS) told journalists that it will take the government only a few weeks to "reconstruct" the project. However, Shiyan Chao, a senior health economist at the World Bank cautioned that: "resumption of the funds will hinge on the government's concrete actions to improve earlier shortcomings related to policy issues on tuberculosis control, procurement, fiduciary controls, and other important aspects of project management". The World Bank suspended the loan, complaining of poor implementation by the Ukrainian ministry of health. "At the time of suspension, which came after the first 3 years of implementation, only 2% of funds available for this project had been disbursed by the Ukrainian ministry of health", Merrell Tuck, a spokesperson of the Bank said. The Bank says "there is also concern about the government's full commitment to both condom use and harm reduction for injecting drug users [IDUs]". (excerpt)
Habitat Debate. 2000; 6(3): p..Large-scale corruption in developed and developing countries is closely connected to contracting-out, concessions, and privatization. The encouragement of privatization of public services and infrastructure by the World Bank and others has multiplied the potential scale of this business. At the same time it has multiplied the incentives for multinational companies active in these sectors to offer bribes in order to secure concessions and contracts. One of the sectors most at risk is water and sanitation. The concessions invariably involve long-term monopoly supply of an essential service, with considerable potential profit. Often, major construction works are involved, which are themselves a source of profit. (excerpt)
Health Policy. 2005 Sep; 73(3):339-351.This article argues that the health-related Millennium Development Goals do not appropriately address the challenges faced by the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. By ignoring adult mortality, their achievement would result in relatively small gains in life expectancy. To achieve greater impact, policies in this region must supplement the classical Millennium Development Goals with indicators of adult health, in particular cardiovascular diseases and external causes of death. In addition, countries, with support from the international community, must improve the quality of vital registration data to enable more accurate estimation of the disease burden. (author's)
HIV / AIDS and globalization -- What is the epidemic telling us about economics, morality, and pragmatism?
In: State of the art: AIDS and economics, edited by Steven Forsythe. Washington, D.C., Futures Group International, POLICY Project, 2002 Jul. 9-15.Disease epidemics have been related as both cause and effect to increasing integration of human economies, societies, and cultures throughout history. It is well known that infectious diseases are not equally distributed between different societies and different sections of the same society. This is clear on a global scale where disparities in exposure to infection and access to public health provision and health care are acute. There is a debate as to the meaning and effects of “globalization” as well as about whether it is “new” and, if so, in what ways. This paper briefly examines (a) the history of disease in relation to globalization; (b) the meanings and importance of “globalization”; (c) where and how the HIV/AIDS epidemic fits into the picture; (d) some of the theoretical and ideological implications. (author's)
Consultative meeting on "Accelerating an AIDS Vaccine for Developing Countries: Issues and Options for the World Bank", Paris, April 13, 1999.
[Unpublished] 1999. 7 p.The World Bank’s AIDS Vaccine Task Force sponsored a meeting at the World Bank European office in Paris on Tuesday, April 13, 1999, to consult with key shareholders, bilateral and multilateral donors, and representatives from developing countries on ways that the World Bank could accelerate the development of an AIDS vaccine that would be effective and affordable in developing countries. The 32 participants included representatives from the North and South, from AIDS control programs, foreign affairs ministries, and ministries of finance, both technical experts and policy makers. An issues paper, “Accelerating an AIDS vaccine for developing countries: Issues and options for the World Bank”, served as background for the meeting. (excerpt)
Washington, D.C., World Bank, South Central Europe Country Department, 2003 Feb 11.  p.The purpose of this paper is to review the current status of the AIDS epidemics in ECC05 countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania), to evaluate the approaches and strategies currently being used in each country, and to make recommendations both for government strategies and for the Bank’s current and potential future involvement in relation to these strategies. The paper is divided into three sections: 1) an overview of recent regional perspectives; 2) a situation analysis and evaluation for each country including current strategies and implementation arrangements, and 3) a discussion of potential actions by the Bank. (excerpt)
From Bangkok to Mexico: towards a framework for turning knowledge into action to improve health systems [editorial]
Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 2004 Oct; 82(10):720-721.As a follow-up to the International Conference on Health Research for Development that took place in Bangkok, Thailand, in 2000, WHO convened a Ministerial Summit on Health Research to be held in Mexico City in November 2004, to review progress to date and reflect on emerging opportunities in the global field of health research. In 1990, the Commission on Health Research for Development recommended that all countries should undertake essential national health research; it stipulated that international partnerships are the foundations for progress and that financing for these efforts should be mobilized from both international and national sources. In 1996, WHO'S Ad Hoc Committee on Health Research Relating to Future Intervention Options outlined a five-step priority-setting approach to decide how health research funds should be allocated. It identified "best buys" for the development of products and procedures in several key areas, including childhood infections, malnutrition, microbial threats, noncommunicable diseases and health systems. Overall, progress has been slow and there is much more to be done to deal with major health challenges. (excerpt)
In: Women, international development, and politics: the bureaucratic mire. Updated and expanded edition, edited by Kathleen Staudt. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Temple University Press, 1997. 311-329.The world has witnessed a remarkable surge in the women's movement that has put forward over the last two decades a bold vision of social transformation and challenged the global community to respond. This article reviews the response of one set of key players: the international donor agencies dealing with women's development issues. It focuses on the actions of four donors, two bilateral (Norway and Canada) and two multilateral (the World Bank and the United Nations Development Program) and attempts to assess their performance in the last twenty years in broad strokes. It asks three basic sets of questions. First, what were the articulated objectives of their special policies and measures to promote women's advancement? Were they responsive to the aspiration of the women's movement? Second, did the donors adopt any identifiable set of strategies to realize the policy objectives? Were they effective? And finally, what were the results? Was there any quantitative and qualitative evidence to suggest progress? The two bilateral donors--Canada and Norway--were selected because they have a reputation among donors of mounting major initiatives for women. They number among the few agencies who adopted detailed women-in-development (WID) or gender-and-development (GAD) policies. In contrast, the two multilateral donors--United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Bank---were chosen not on the strength of their WlD/GAD mandates and policies, but because of the influence they wield in shaping the development strategies of the countries of the South. The World Bank through its conditionalities often dictates policy reforms to aid-recipient governments. The UNDP, as the largest fund, has a big presence within the United Nations system. The actions of these two agencies-- what they advocate and what they omit or marginalize--have a strong impact on the policy analysis and investments of the aid-recipient countries. The study is primarily based on published and unpublished data collected from the four donor agencies. (excerpt)
New York, New York, UNFPA, 2003. iv, 345 p.This section outlines the objectives of the country’s formal population policy (if any), or of population-related components of its general development policies. Actions and other measures currently taken to implement these policies are also highlighted to illustrate the Government’s political will and priorities. These descriptions are based on various sources, including the biennial Population Policy Inquiries of the United Nations Population Division and the regular reports on country programme progress submitted to UNFPA. Each of the major subregions is introduced with an overview of common key issues. (excerpt)
Foreign aid, democratisation and civil society in Africa: a study of South Africa, Ghana and Uganda.
Brighton, England, University of Sussex, Institute of Development Studies [IDS], . 28 p. (Discussion Paper No. 368)The 1990s have seen increased interest on the part of Western governments in funding civil society in Africa in an attempt to promote the continent's democratisation process. This discussion paper examines how a range of foreign donors has developed civil society initiatives in Ghana, Uganda and South Africa. All three countries form part of the new generation of African states that are seen as turning their back on decades of authoritarian rule, instead embracing open government and open economies in productive 'partnerships' with the West. After defining what donors mean by 'civil society', this discussion paper is divided into two main sections. The first section identifies who the major foreign donors to civil society are in Ghana, Uganda and South Africa. It examines the relative importance and differences in approach of the United States, Germany, the World Bank and the Like-minded Group of donors (the Nordic countries, the Netherlands and Canada). The second major section discusses the broad objectives of donors in African countries. The study found that civil society organisations committed to the promotion of liberal democracy and economic liberalism are the most popular with donors. The paper concludes that although assistance to civil society is relatively small, and is directed at a very particular section of civil society, in each of these societies it funds some of the key actors involved in influencing economic policy and defining the content of democracy. (author's)
The new lepers. HIV-positive people are treated as social outcasts while the government fails to cope.
London, England, Institute for War and Peace Reporting [IWPR], 2003 Aug 8. 3 p. (Belarus Reporting Service No. 28)More and more people in Belarus are finding themselves in her position – 50 or 60 new HIV cases are recorded every month. At the beginning of August, the number of people carrying the virus reached 5,150, and experts fear that the figure will be more than double that in 2005. More worryingly, some say the recorded figures should be multiplied by a factor of three or more since they fail to capture drug users who have not been seen by the health authorities. Although HIV and AIDS are advancing rapidly, neither the government nor society in general appear able to come to terms with it. A survey conducted jointly by the United Nations and the Centre for Sociological and Political Research in Minsk found that three quarters of the people polled thought people with HIV should not be allowed to care for their own children, and more than 40 per cent said they should not be allowed to travel around the country or choose where they want to live. (excerpt)
Civil-Military Alliance Newsletter. 1995 Apr; 1(2):5.This brief article summarizes these Alliance activities: a collaboration of the Alliance, the World Health Organization, and the Economic Development Institute of the World Bank to hold two-step conferences/training sessions for military and civilian medical officers; assessing the HIV-related causes of civil and military instability; and assisting the coalitions of civil and military authorities by helping to secure financial and other assistance for their work.
Initiatives: Street Children Initiative. Conference brief, Street Children Initiative International Conference, April 13 and 14, 2000.
[Washington, D.C.], World Bank, 2000. 5 p.This article discusses social problems associated with the emergence of street children in Eastern European cities and the efforts of Street Children Initiatives and Initiative on Child Labor by the World Bank in addressing the needs of these homeless street children.
Safe motherhood and the World Bank. Lessons from 10 years of experience. [Maternité sûre et Banque Mondiale. Leçons d'une expérience décennale]
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Human Development Network, Health Nutrition, and Population Division, 1999 Jun. 42,  p.The World Bank is a leader in promoting and supporting efforts to improve maternal health, and is the largest source of external assistance for safe motherhood. This paper examines the World Bank's work in safe motherhood, based largely on a review of experiences in nine countries in which the Bank provide substantial assistance in maternal health and family planning. These countries--Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Yemen, Romania, Zimbabwe, Chad, and Brazil--were chosen for their regional diversity and for the broad range of initial conditions they presented. The projects reviewed were selected for their different approaches to maternal mortality and disability, the lessons they offer on program experience over the past decade, and their contribution to the identification of critical interventions for future work in safe motherhood. It is noted that the Bank's support of other projects aimed at the broader goals of alleviating poverty and sharing growth has also significantly improved women's health status.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1999 Dec. viii, 113 p. (World Bank Discussion Paper No. 411; Europe and Central Asia Gender and Development Series)This collection of papers was selected from the proceedings of the World Bank conference held on June 7-8, 1999 in Washington District of Colombia. The conference entitled, "Making the Transition Work for Women in Europe and Central Asia," underlined the importance of gender as a factor influencing change during the shift from a command to a market economy. Women, who were invited to the conference, from Europe spoke directly to the World Bank about their problems and to make suggestions for action. In addition, scholars from the US and Britain were also invited to express their views on the gender dimension of transition. It was pointed out that the transition is taking place without the input of women, who are consequently suffering from the change. The participants also agreed the changes also caused men to engage in domestic violence, thus causing additional problems for women. The feminization of poverty and trafficking in women were also identified as new problems that demand to be addressed. In view of these problems, the participants advised that reforms were necessary but should proceed with caution.
Conflict Prevention and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Perspectives and Prospects, April 20-21, 1998, Paris, France.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Social Development Department, Post-Conflict Unit, 1998 Aug. 44 p.As part of a global workshop series on the transition from war to peace, the World Bank Post-Conflict Unit, in collaboration with the World Bank's Paris Office, held a workshop focusing on conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction in Paris, France, April 20-21, 1998. The meeting involved two distinct but interrelated efforts to bring together existing thinking about the area of post-conflict reconstruction. The first day was dedicated to exploring ways that development assistance and private investment can address the root causes of conflict. The second day of the Paris conference was planned as a follow-up to an October 1997 conference sponsored by the US Agency for International Development's Office of Transition Initiatives. The 1997 conference brought together donor agencies' newly-created post-conflict offices, with the aim of gaining a clearer vision of how governments and multilateral organizations are moving forward to address the operational needs that have emerged since the end of the Cold War.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Social Development Department, Post-Conflict Unit, 1999 Sep. 30 p.This booklet presents the outcome of a dialogue among technical experts, donors, and senior World Bank staff to explore the relationship between security and development in a world increasingly affected by violent conflicts. The dialogue was designed as a series of learning events to raise awareness and understanding of a matter that is drawing growing concern: the impact of small arms, civil war, violence, and conflict on poverty reduction and sustainable development. However, this dialogue was not meant to be a prescriptive or an advocacy exercise but, rather, an attempt to better define the problems, share experiences and ideas, and lay the foundation for future work with development partners in this area. It was recommended that these issues and the agenda on security reform be mainstreamed in the work of the World Bank, since they are central to the fulfillment of the Bank's mission of sustainable growth and poverty reduction in conflict-prone or post-conflict areas.
AIDS ANALYSIS AFRICA. 1999 Jun-Jul; 10(1):11-3.Globally, $200-250 million/year are devoted to HIV vaccine research. Most of those funds pay for basic research rather than product development. Moreover, most of the funds are aimed at the HIV strain commonly found in the US and Europe, and not at the strains common to Africa and other developing countries. While US President Bill Clinton set in 1997 a 10-year target for the development of an HIV vaccine, that target date is looking increasingly unlikely. International vaccine and pharmaceutical companies typically drive vaccine research and development. However, concern over the ultimate profitability of developing and marketing an HIV vaccine, and the fear of major litigation should an eventual vaccine go awry have caused such firms to shy away from investing large amounts of money into HIV vaccine development. These companies somehow have to be attracted back into the field. A World Bank special task force is slated to present its report by mid-1999 on possible funding mechanisms to promote HIV vaccine development. It remains to be resolved whether public funds could and should be used, perhaps through a pooled international vaccine development fund. 2 new International AIDS Vaccine Initiative projects are described.
TDR NEWS. 1997 Mar; (52):6-7.Since the UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) began, the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine has been closely involved with the program through steering committees, undertaking projects in Liverpool and abroad, and training students in Liverpool and in-country. The relationship between the school and TDR's activities has evolved in step with the evolution of TDR. The school has always recognized that it must focus upon the developing world and has sought to collaborate with TDR in field projects. The current portfolio of links between Liverpool and TDR is focused upon the disease-related and health system expertise in Liverpool which provides for student supervision associated with institutions in Latin America, Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. With co-funding from TDR and the British government, the school is currently evaluating the impact of health sector reform upon malaria control in 6 districts in Ghana. Other studies and projects upon which the school is working are described.
In: International watercourses: enhancing cooperation and managing conflict. Proceedings of a World Bank seminar, edited by Salman M.A. Salman, Laurence Boisson de Chazournes. Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1998. 103-25. (World Bank Technical Paper No. 414)This technical report chapter discusses the legal dispute about international watercourses (IWs) that was resolved in the International Court of Justice: the Gabcikovo-Nagymaros Case. The September 1997 judgment between Hungary and Slovakia appears in the appendix. The case concerns a dispute over construction of two dams on the Danube River in shared water. A 1977 bilateral treaty authorized construction of two dams and joint operation. During construction, political pressure mounted in Hungary over environmental concerns until 1989, when Hungary suspended work. Czechoslovakia proceeded to build a single dam that would divert 80% of the shared water. In 1992, Hungary ended the 1977 treaty. The Court found that Hungary was not entitled to suspend work or end the 1977 treaty. It ruled that Slovakia was not entitled to operate from a 1992 unilateral solution to divert the water. The Court urged mutual cooperation and agreement and suggested the joint operation of one dam, but not at peak power. The 1977 treaty included protections of water quality and nature. This case indicated that states can invoke "ecological necessity" actions, but there must be proven "real, grave and imminent peril." The decision was based on the assumption of a common legal right, equality of all riparian states as users of the whole IW, and directly, on the law of IWs. It referred to a global convention about sustainable use of the Danube. The Court argued that States must consider new activities, such as sustainable development, even in long-term projects. This case gives prominence to environmental concerns within public international law.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Environment Department, Social Policy and Resettlement Division, 1997 May. , 83 p. (Environment Department Papers Participation Series No. 052)This report reviews lessons learned by the World Bank (WB) about the involvement of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in WB-financed "social funds." Since 1986, the WB has channeled more than $1.3 billion to more than 30 social funds in Latin America, Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe to 1) mitigate the social costs of structural adjustment programs or respond to emergencies, 2) improve living conditions for impoverished people, and/or 3) promote decentralization of service delivery by building local capacity. Social funds may finance small-scale activities in the health, education, water, and sanitation sectors and/or meet basic needs, create social programs, set-up micro/credit programs to develop small enterprises, or develop infrastructure. After providing a general introduction, the report outlines the various roles that NGOs can have in implementation of social funds, the benefits and risks of such involvement, and the current extent of NGO involvement. The third section identifies the key issues and lessons learned, and section 4 reviews the principal criticisms and concerns of NGOs. Section 5 offers recommendations for improving NGO involvement in WB-financed social funds. Specific examples and case studies are highlighted throughout the report, and annexes summarize NGO involvement in selected social funds and provide a sample checklist, manual, gender action plan, implementation agreement, financing agreement, bidding document, and works contract.
Washington, D.C., Futures Group, Gender in Economic and Social Systems Project [GENESYS], 1994 Oct. , 48 p. (GENESYS Special Study No. 17; USAID Contract No. PDC-0100-Z-00-9044-00)In order to reveal essential lessons learned about the process undertaken by major bilateral and multilateral donor agencies to institutionalize gender awareness in their organizational structure and programs and to define the scope of the remaining work in this area, this paper compares strategies of major agencies and assesses the degree to which these strategies have allowed the agencies to meet stated objectives. The first main section of the paper provides background information on the following issues: 1) the importance of recognizing women's dual productive and reproductive roles and of the concept of mainstreaming in the development of policies and plans of action; 2) the key structures and processes that enhance capacity for institutionalizing gender, including a commitment to raising awareness, the presence of a Women in Development (WID) office and/or staff, and WID training and research; 3) the process of incorporating gender issues into country programs and project cycles; 4) involving women in all stages of development programming; and 5) strategies for the future. The second section of the paper analyzes the institutionalization of gender issues into the development process funded by the bilateral donors (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US). Each analysis includes a look at the content and scope of the country's policy and plan of action, at organizational commitment to raising awareness, at efforts to build a knowledge base, at how gender issues are incorporated into programs and project cycles, and at efforts to bring women into the process. The same framework is applied to the consideration of multilateral donors (the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Bank, and the UN Development Programme) contained in the final section of the paper.
JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF PHYSICIANS IN AIDS CARE. 1995 Mar; 1(2):34.After a 4-day meeting of African health officials, professors, nongovernmental specialists, and parliamentarians in Paris, Dr. Ebrahim Samba, World Health Organization (WHO) regional director called for change in the way the continent's governments, peoples, and international benefactors approach health care. WHO and the World Bank published a study, "Better Health for Africa," which suggests low-income African countries can overhaul their health systems and offer services for $13 per person per year; the average per capita is now $14 (range, $10-$100). In some countries consumers only receive $12 worth of benefits for each $100 spent on drugs by the public sector. The new approach calls for comprehensive plans to reach the greatest number of people with appropriate care while integrating care with clean water and sanitation. Health ministries currently focus on sophisticated services in the cities that benefit a small and relatively prosperous segment of society. Dr. Olikoye Ransome-Kuti, former Nigerian Health Minister, noted that people pay a lot in both the formal and informal (traditional healers) health settings, and that health insurance and user fees could finance this. Edward Elmendorf, a World Bank specialist on human resources and poverty, stated that wider use of health insurance would free some of the funds used by advanced hospitals for meeting the needs of the entire population, and that, according to the report's panel, user fees, even in impoverished areas, produced better services and consumers who value the information and medications they receive. Wadi Haddad, World Bank senior advisor for human development, said there is a consensus among international donors to encourage health care reform, for which each country would develop its own plan and priorities. Donors, who finance about 20% of health costs in Africa, are also urging governments to address education of women, clean water, and poverty. The Bank has pledged $1.4 billion in loans for 30 countries to reform their health care systems.
Europe and Central Asia Region, Middle East and North Africa Region, population projections, 1992-93 edition.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., 1992 Nov. xcv, 203 p. (Policy Research Working Papers WPS 1016)Statistical information and a summary introduction were provided for Eastern Europe and Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, and North African regions for selected demographic and economic measures. Measures included income, birth and death rates, fertility rates, rate of natural increase, net migration rate, growth rate, infant mortality rate, dependency ratio, and population projections to 2150. Detailed age and sex distributions were also provided. Both World Bank and nonborrower countries were included. The figures were updated from the 1990-91 Edition. The summary described and discussed recent demographic trends and future projections, and reviewed countries and regions by income level. Noteworthy changes by country were indicated. World Bank borrower countries were divided into the following regions: sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, which were regrouped into 4-6 country departments and into 4 income groups. The largest population was in East Asia and the Pacific with 30% of world population. Other large regions included South Asia with 21%, Africa with 10%, Europe and Central Asia with 9%, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8%, and the Middle East and North Africa with 5%. Country departments reflected the regions as a whole, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa with growth rates of 32.% to 2.8%. East Africa had the highest rates and Sahelian and South African countries the lowest rates. The Middle Eastern countries had rates of 3.0% in contrast to North African countries rates of 2.7%. Diversity was greatest in Asian departments. Rates were 2.0-2.6% in South Asia and 1.9-1.4% in East Asian and Pacific departments. The lowest rates were in European and Central Asian departments. In 1992, less developed countries comprised 77% of the world population. The projections indicated that by 2150 the population would reach 12.2 billion, of which 88% would live in developing countries. The 1992 projections differed from 1990-91's in that the projections were revised downward due to AIDS mortality. World fertility was projected to decline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by 2000 and 2.4 by 2025. Life expectancy was expected to reach 70 years in about 2010. The proportion aged would rise in more developed countries.