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Lancet. 2014 Aug 30; 384(9945):730-2.Add to my documents.
Lessons learned from setting up the Nahuche Health and Demographic Surveillance System in the resource-constrained context of northern Nigeria.
Global Health Action. 2014; 7:23368.Background: The present time reflects a period of intense effort to get the most out of public health interventions, with an emphasis on health systems reform and implementation research. Population health approaches to determine which combinations are better at achieving the goals of improved health and well-being are needed to provide a ready response to the need for timely and real-world piloting of promising interventions. Objective: This paper describes the steps needed to establish a population health surveillance site in order to share the lessons learned from our experience launching the Nahuche Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in a relatively isolated, rural district in Zamfara, northern Nigeria, where strict Muslim observance of gender separation and seclusion of women must be respected by any survey operation. Discussion: Key to the successful launch of the Nahuche HDSS was the leadership’s determination, stakeholder participation, support from state and local government areas authorities, technical support from the INDEPTH Network, and international academic partners. Solid funding from our partner health systems development programme during the launch period was also essential, and provided a base from which to secure long-term sustainable funding. Perhaps the most difficult challenges were the adaptations needed in order to conduct the requisite routine population surveillance in the communities, where strict Muslim observance of gender separation and seclusion of women, especially young women, required recruitment of female interviewers, which was in turn difficult due to low female literacy levels. Local community leaders were key in overcoming the population’s apprehension of the fieldwork and modern medicine, in general. Continuous engagement and sensitisation of all stakeholders was a critical step in ensuring sustainability. While the experiences of setting up a new HDSS site may vary globally, the experiences in northern Nigeria offer some strategies that may be replicated in other settings with similar challenges.
The use of mobile phones for demographic surveillance of mobile pastoralists and their animals in Chad: proof of principle.
Global Health Action. 2014; 7:23209.Background: Demographic information is foundational for the planning and management of social programmes, in particular health services. The existing INDEPTH network surveillance sites are limited to coverage of sedentary populations. Including mobile populations in this approach would be expensive, time consuming and possibly low in accuracy. Very little is known about the demography of mobile pastoralists and their animals, so innovative approaches are urgently needed. Objective: To test and evaluate a mobile demographic surveillance system for mobile pastoralist households, including livestock herds, using mobile phones. Design: Mobile pastoralist camps were monitored (10 for 12 months and 10 for 18 months) using biweekly mobile phone calls with camp leaders and their wives to conduct interviews about the households and livestock. The collected information was validated through personal visits, GPS data and a livestock demographic model. Results: The study showed the feasibility of mobile phone surveillance for mobile pastoralist camps, providing usable, valid information on human and livestock population structures, pregnancy outcomes and herd dynamics, as well as migration patterns. The approach was low-cost and applicable with the existing local resources. Conclusion: Demographic surveillance in mobile populations is feasible using mobile phones. Expansion of the small-scale system into a full mobile demographic surveillance system is warranted and would likely lead to improved planning and provision of human and animal health care.
Cohorts and community: a case study of community engagement in the establishment of a health and demographic surveillance site in Malaysia.
Global Health Action. 2014; 7:23176.Background: Community engagement is an increasingly important requirement of public health research and plays an important role in the informed consent and recruitment process. However, there is very little guidance about how it should be done, the indicators for assessing effectiveness of the community engagement process and the impact it has on recruitment, retention, and ultimately on the quality of the data collected as part of longitudinal cohort studies. Methods: An instrumental case study approach, with data from field notes, policy documents, unstructured interviews, and focus group discussions with key community stakeholders and informants, was used to explore systematically the implementation and outcomes of the community engagement strategy for recruitment of an entire community into a demographic and health surveillance site in Malaysia. Results: For a dynamic cohort, community engagement needs to be an ongoing process. The community engagement process has likely helped to facilitate the current response rate of 85% in the research communities. The case study highlights the importance of systematic documentation of the community engagement process to ensure an understanding of the effects of the research on recruitment and the community. Conclusions: A critical lesson from the case study data is the importance of relationships in the recruitment process for large population-based studies, and the need for ongoing documentation and analysis of the impact of cumulative interactions between research and community engagement.
[The complex interactions between the origins of HIV and its epidemic, colonial activities in Africa and colonial medicine in Belgian Congo] Des interactions complexes entre les origines du VIH et sa pandemie, les activites coloniales en Afrique et la medecine coloniale Belge au Congo.
Revue Medicale De Liege. 2011 Sep; 66(9):478-84.In this review article on the origin of HIV, we start from a historical fact which involved physicians from Liege working in Belgian Congo: the vaccination against polio of hundreds of thousands of Congolese between 1957 and 1960. We explain the genesis of an alternative hypothesis postulating that this campaign was at the origin of HIV pandemy. We show that the hypothesis is unfounded in view of genetic and epidemiological evidence on the one hand and after thorough examination of the activity reports of the Laboratoire Medical de Stanleyville on the other. In the second part of the article, we analyse the importance of other factors which might have contributed to the emergence of the pandemy. Some of these are clearly iatrogenic such as the prophylactic injections of pentamidine against trypanosomiasis, others are of demographic and sociological nature. All of them have a direct link with colonisation.
[New York, New York], United Nations Development Programme [UNDP], 2010 Jun.  p. (Human Development Research Paper 2010-02)This paper uses a unique data set of the Human Development Index to describe long-run human development trends for 111 countries, from 1970 to 2005. The first part of the paper shows trends by region, period and index subcomponent. We find that 110 of the 111 countries show progress in their HDI levels over a 35-year period. HDI growth is fastest for low-HDI and middle-HDI countries in the pre-1990 period. The life-expectancy and education subcomponents grow faster than income. The assessment of HDI progress is sensitive to choice of measurement. The second part of the paper focuses on the differences between income and non-income determinants of human development. First, HDI growth converges, both absolutely and conditionally, when running HDI growth rates on initial levels of HD. Second, we find that the income and non-income components of HDI change have a near-zero correlation. Third, we look at determinants of the non-income components of the HDI. We find that income is not a significant determinant of HDI change once we include urbanization, fertility and female schooling. Fourth, we test the effects of institutions, geography and gender on HDI growth. We find that the most robust predictors of HDI growth are fertility and female schooling. We check this result using years of women's suffrage as an instrument for changes in gender relations, and find that it is a significant predictor of HDI progress for the whole sample.
Geneva, Switzerland, WHO, 2010.  p.World Health Statistics 2010 contains WHO's annual compilation of data from its 193 Member States, and includes a summary of progress towards the health-related Millennium Development Goals and targets. This volume's indicators, taken together, provide a comprehensive summary of the current status of nine aspects of national health and health systems: mortality and burden of disease; cause-specific mortality and morbidity; selected infectious diseases; health service coverage; risk factors; health workforce, infrastructure and essential medicines; health expenditure; health inequities; and demographic and socioeconomic statistics.
Washington, D.C., Futures Group International, Health Policy Initiative, .  p. (USAID Contract No. GPO-I-01-05-00040-00)The DemProj e-learning course instructs learners on using the DemProj Model and understanding basic demographic concepts. Divided into three parts, the course explains the basic measures of population and the processes that influence population growth and then provides step-by-step instructions in making population projections. After seeing simple example projections that use data from developing countries, users go through a series of questions and useful exercises to better understand concepts. Each part is narrated by a different instructor.
Journal of Family Planning and Reproductive Health Care. 2009 Oct; 35(4):257-9.This article addresses how demography, health, human rights, and morality have been important perspectives in the formulation of policies for the provision of contraceptive services and by addressing unmet need, implementation of the right to contraception leads to decreases in fertility and population growth. It states that it thereby promotes attainment of the Millennium Development Goals and poverty reduction in the context of international development.
Reproductive Biomedicine Online. 2009; 18 Suppl 2:11-4.The demographic composition of many developed countries threatens their economies and global influence. On the one hand, the increased cost of living and of raising children discourages couples from starting families until later in life while, on the other hand, improved living standards have increased life expectancy. Together, these have resulted in a low total fertility rate and a net increase in the elderly population. The financial and employment protection incentives offered by governments have had relatively little impact on this demographic trend, and a multi-level approach is needed. Governments are, therefore, considering alternatives as part of a so-called 'population policy mix'. One option is to promote access to assisted reproductive technology for infertile couples. The prevalence of infertility has increased, in part because of general health issues, such as obesity and the rise in sexually transmitted diseases, and also because women are postponing having their first child. Improving accessibility to assisted reproductive technology will relieve the burden of infertility on these couples and may contribute to effectively challenging the problem of low total fertility rates in many developed countries.
Assisted reproductive technologies are an integrated part of national strategies addressing demographic and reproductive challenges.
Human Reproduction Update. 2008 Nov-Dec; 14(6):583-92.BACKGROUND: The decline in the total fertility rate in the latter half of the 20th century in many European countries is becoming increasingly important in determining the demographic composition of Europe and its individual member states. This review focuses on discussion surrounding how assisted reproductive technology (ART) can impact declining fertility rates. METHODS: This article summarizes key aspects of presentations given at the 'State of the ART 2007-ART and Society' meeting held in Lyon, France, in June 2007. For each topic, searches were conducted in MEDLINE and other databases and the results, alongside unpublished data and personal opinion, were presented to the Workshop Group. Individual subjects were discussed and any disagreements or omissions resolved. RESULTS: Although reduced fertility rates will have an impact on total population number, it is the change in the age structure of the population that is likely to be the most challenging factor faced by the European Union (EU). With evidence suggesting that an ageing population threatens future standards of living and social cohesion, managing demographic change through integrated policy response has become an important component of EU legislation. However, current measures fail to tackle the contribution that ART may play in alleviating falling fertility rates. Indeed, ART can have an important impact on economic and demographic factors, and should be incorporated into a population policy mix. Current barriers to ART include legislative restriction across different EU countries, limited availability to ART and current perception of ART in society. CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of ART as part of a population policy mix in Europe is justified but must involve better communication among ART professionals, politicians and the general public.
International Journal of Epidemiology. 2008 Aug; 37(4):862-869.Cervical cancer, although usually preventable by Pap smear screening, remains the leading cause of cancer-related deaths among women in Peru. The percentages and characteristics of women in Peru who have or have not had a Pap smear have not been defined. In an urban community randomized trial of sexually transmitted infection (STI)/HIV prevention in Peru, 6712 randomly selected women between the ages of 18 and 29 from 20 cities were interviewed regarding having had cervical Pap smears. Among women sampled, only 30.9% had had a Pap smear. By multivariate analysis, the main predictors of having a Pap smear were having had sex, having had children, completion of secondary education and increasing age. Regional variations were also found: women from the highlands and rainforest were less likely to have had Pap smears than women from the coast. A norm of seeking and receiving Pap smears has not been established among sexually active young Peruvian women. To improve Pap smear coverage in Peru, promotionefforts should target underserved women and regions with less coverage. (author's)
Journal of Biosocial Science. 2007 Sep; 39(5):693-706.The aim of this paper is to investigate the differentials and determinants of female age at first marriage in rural Nepal. The life table technique was employed to calculate median age at marriage. The proportional hazard model was used to study the effect of various socioeconomic variables, and to identify the magnitude and significance of their effects on the timing of first marriage. The data were taken from a sample survey of Palpa and Rupandehi districts in rural Nepal. Both married and unmarried females of marriageable age were included in the survey. Median age at marriage was about 17 years for data from only married females, whereas it was about 18 years for data from married as well as unmarried females of marriageable age. Median age at marriage was about 16 years for uneducated females and 19 years for females educated up to intermediate or higher level. The analysis underestimates the median age at marriage for married females, probably due to right censoring. The risk of getting married early decreased gradually with increasing year-of-birth cohort. The risk of early marriage was higher among females of high socioeconomic status compared with those of low socioeconomic status. Females engaged in service married earlier than those engaged in household work. High socioeconomic status families are motivated, for religious and prestige reasons, to get their daughters married at an early age, preferably before menarche. Thus, education, occupation and age at menarche are the most powerful factors in deciding the timing of first marriage in Nepal. (author's)
Journal of Biosocial Science. 2007 Sep; 39(5):657-670.Domestic spousal violence against women in developing countries like India, is now beginning to be recognized as a widespread health problem impeding development. This study aimed to explore the risk and protective factors for lifetime spousal physical violence. A cross-sectional household survey was carried out in rural, urban and urban-slum areas across seven sites in India, among women aged 15-49 years, living with a child less than 18 years of age. The sample was selected using the probability proportionate to size method. Trained field workers administered a structured questionnaire to elicit information on spousal physical violence. The main hypothesized variables were social support, witnessed father beating mother and experience of harsh physical violence during childhood, alcohol abuse by spouse and socioeconomic variables. The outcome variables included three physical violence behaviours of hit, kick and beat. Odds ratios were calculated for risk and protective factors of violence using logistic regression. Of 9938 women surveyed, 26% reported experiencing spousal physical violence during the lifetime of their marriage. Adjusted odds ratios calculated using multiple logistic regression analysis suggest that women whose husbands regularly consumed alcohol (OR 5.6; 95% CI 4.7-6.6); who experienced dowry harassment (OR 3.2; 95% CI 2.7-3.8); had reported experiencing harsh physical punishment during childhood (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4-1.8) and had witnessed their fathers beat their mothers (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.6-2.1), were at increased risk of spousal physical violence (beat, hit and kick). Higher socioeconomic status and good social support acted as protective buffers against spousal physical violence. The findings provide compelling evidence of the potential risk factors for spousal physical violence, which in turn could help in planning interventions. (author's)
[Washington, D.C.], JBS International, Aguirre Division, 2004 May. 150 p. (Social Transition Series; USAID Development Experience Clearinghouse DocID / Order No: PN-ADG-305; USAID Contract No. FAO-I-00-99-00010-00)The purpose of this manual is to provide USAID Missions in the Europe and Eurasia region with tools and methods for diagnosing the situation of youth in their countries by means of a rapid appraisal (RA) approach. Rapid appraisal is an effective system of research methods that can enable a Mission to assess speedily the current situation of a given group or conditions, and, with those results, to develop the most appropriate programs to meet needs that are identified. This manual is designed to provide the Missions with an understanding of rapid appraisal and how to realistically and practically apply it. (excerpt)
The hope of tomorrow: integrating youth into the transition of Europe and Eurasia. Volume I. Revised.
[Washington, D.C.], JBS International, Aguirre Division, 2006 Jun. 82 p. (Social Transition Series; USAID Development Experience Clearinghouse DocID / Order No: PN-ADG-304; USAID Contract No. FAO-I-00-99-00010-00)Youth are our future, and the importance of assuring that the youth of today will become the democratic leaders of tomorrow cannot be overstated. The success and sustainability of the transition agenda in Europe and Eurasia largely depends on how well the region's youth are educated to believe in and uphold the tenants of a market-oriented democratic society and to possess the skills of fair and visionary leadership. USAID Missions across the region have recognized that their programs need to better integrate youth to assure that the generation change moves in the same direction as the transition. Several Missions have developed programs for youth, and some have even designed "next generation" programs. These efforts have had a significant impact. The data regarding youth, however, show that problems are so significant and even alarming that programs having a larger impact need to be considered. Youth need to be integrated into Mission programming across the board. This manual is designed to help Missions integrate youth in each strategic area of Mission programming. After arguing the importance of youth to transition, illustrating the youth crisis with statistics, and presenting an approach to what is happening with youth in the country context, this manual will present steps for Missions to include youth as a key target audience in each area of Bureau concern: economic growth, democratization, and social transition. The manual will offer guidelines to identify the priority issues for youth in each country, ideas for and examples of youth programming, and ways to integrate youth into existing program areas and Strategic Objectives. (excerpt)
Madison, Wisconsin, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Demography and Ecology, 1991. 16 p. (CDE Working Paper No. 91-37)This serials holdings list supersedes CDE working paper 90-09, SERIAL HOLDINGS OF THE LIBRARY, CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHY AND ECOLOGY. It is a list of holdings, not just of titles currently received, so the user should look carefully at the citation for years held. Titles that have ceased publication or that are no longer received are clearly marked. The CDE Library shelf list will continue to reflect the most current library holdings and should be consulted to supplement the information below. Serial entries are arranged alphabetically by title in a world sequence. Initialisms, such as BLS, are treated as a word and arranged accordingly. Articles at the beginning of a title are disregarded. (excerpt)
Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 2006 Mar; 84(3):163-164.At present, the long-term social, economic, and demographic impact of major diseases in developing countries can only be estimated using models since there are no empirical data on age and cause-specific morbidity and mortality. Reliable estimates require the input of accurate data into the models, from as many geographical zones as possible. With the collapse of vital registration systems and the rudimentary state of health information systems in most of the developing world, estimated projections are sometimes based on educated guesses and intuition rather than fact. The investment needed to improve health information in these countries is unlikely to be made in the near future. Strong national health research systems are needed to improve health. For developing countries to indigenize health research systems, it is essential to build capacity.,3 A local cadre of research scientists is urgently needed, particularly in epidemiology, statistics, immunology, and the clinical sciences. Global disease control initiatives exist in countries where there are fewer than four epidemiologists and only one statistician. Training abroad has been an invaluable stopgap measure, but demand has consistently outstripped supply. The question remains: where is the next generation of research scientists in the developing world going to be trained? (excerpt)
Electronic Journal of Human Sexuality. 2004 May 1; 7: p..Significant attention has been focused on women's initiation of sexual contact with men and the point at which this initiation becomes sexual aggression. The purpose of this study was to examine possible predictors of the use of three conceptually distinct sets of sexual initiation tactics: seduction, coercion, and force. Relationships between women's personal characteristics, future expectancies about sex and relationships, the 'rehearsal behavior' of telephone calling patterns in adolescence, sexual self-esteem, past abuse, and past sexual abuse were related to measures of women's sexual initiation and aggression. Survey respondents were 272, mostly white women students with a mean age of 26 years. A complex relationship emerged between predictor and outcome variables. Social learning theory is utilized to interpret the findings and recommend future research directions. (author's)
Population Research and Policy Review. 2005 Aug; 24(4):359-385.The second half of the twentieth century witnessed the development of a crusading spirit and massive technical aid aimed at reducing fertility levels and rates of population growth in developing countries, and also the involvement of demographers in these events. The demographers at Princeton University’s Office of Population Research, Frank Notestein and his colleagues, have been singled out by recent authors as playing a unique role in bringing about these changes, and they have been criticized for encouraging demographers to become involved, so eroding their scientific objectivity. This paper examines the development of relevant population thought and theory in the English-language literature over the first half of the twentieth century. It concludes that in the circumstances of the second half of the twentieth century, it was inevitable that developed countries and their demographers would become involved in controlling fertility levels in developing countries. The OPR story should be seen largely in terms of how the world’s leading demographic center and its demographic transition theory were swept along by global changes. As those developments started, attitudes to population change in densely settled Asia became Malthusian, even as population growth accompanied by mortality decline in Asia demonstrated that, at least in the short term, the positive checks were disappearing. (author's)
Mankind Quarterly. 2006 Spring; 45(3):257-269.The debate over the ongoing explosion of population in the developing countries has become more muted since the 1960s, but the author maintains that population pressure is a major cause of the contemporary problems that plague so much of the Third World. He also argues that the wide disparity in regional birthrates threaten the peace of the world, and advocates the diversion of greater resources toward the provision of contraceptives to those countries that are too poor to provide them to their own people. Many impoverished Third World countries are currently doubling their population every twenty to twenty five years, and funds spent on ameliorating the demographic problem would not only reduce much of the misery afflicting these countries but would result in far greater savings in other areas. (author's)
Population Studies. 1959 Mar; 12(3):240-285.The work recorded in this paper arose from the consideration of Egyptian data, and it is in the nature of rectifying demographic data that each problem both requires and suggests its own particular solution. It is likely, therefore, that we have fallen short of our aim, which was to establish absolutely general techniques for the treatment of any demographic data in the class we were considering. We are, however, satisfied that the techniques described have far wider application than only to the isolated problem for which they were devised. In the hope that we may influence other workers in this field, we would draw attention to the close association that we have sometimes been able to establish between the indices and techniques for detecting errors, and the procedure for their reduction. We intend later to attempt a similar study for vital records, but this paper examines only population census statistics in isolation, and is thus restricted to adjustments of the data to improve internal consistency, and hence is in the main only applicable to closed populations, i.e., those virtually uninfluenced by migration. A fruitful field of study--the joint examination of census and vital records--is consequently excluded. (excerpt)
Population Studies. 1956 Nov; 10(2):166-183.From the earliest stages of establishing the Protectorate of Northern Nigeria the British administration proceeded with the collection of basic information relating to the demographic and economic structure of this vast territory of over a quarter of a million square miles. This was to provide a basis for the equitable levying of taxation and was to serve as a basis for planning development. Estimates of the total population in the first decade of the present century ranged widely and there was much speculation as to the extent to which population had been reduced during the previous fifty years as a result of slave-raiding, inter-emirate and inter-tribal warfare. If the lower figure of Barth's estimate of the population (thirty to fifty millions) in the mid-nineteenth century were even near accurate, it would be necessary to accept as fact the wholesale slaughter and removal of people to reduce it in fifty years to a figure of under ten million. Lugard was himself convinced that this had happened and his reports and those of political officers serving under him refer to the ample evidence of the devastation that had taken place. (excerpt)
Empirical Bayes estimation of demographic schedules for small areas. [Cálculo de los esquemas demográficos para pequeñas zonas mediante el método empírico de Bayes]
Demography. 2005 Aug; 42(3):537-558.In this article, we analyze empirical Bayes (EB) methods for estimating small-area rate schedules. We develop EB methods that treat schedules as vectors and use adaptive neighborhoods to keep estimates appropriately local. This method estimates demographic rates for local subpopulations by borrowing strength not only from similar individuals elsewhere but also from other groups in the same area and from regularities in schedules across locations. EB is substantially better than standard methods when rates have strong spatial and age patterns. We illustrate this method with estimates of age-specific fertility schedules for over 3,800 Brazilian municipalities. (author's)
[Unpublished] 2004. Presented at the Seminar on Follow-up of the National Population Policy 2000: Focus on EAG States, Mumbai, India, October 25-27, 2004. 7 p.In earlier periods, a common scene in families was grand-ma sitting with her vegetable cutter and pile of vegetables in the morning. She decided what will be cooked taking into consideration the needs of children, adults and olds in the family. Grand Pa sitting on his pyoal decided sleeping arrangements, place for children to play and place for work. All earning members handed over their share of monthly family expenditure to grand pa or the senior most family member and it was fully his discretion to decide expenditure pattern. Adult male used to sit together for meals, females and children had their own arrangements. Discussion during those meals decided most of the important action plans. Thus, in a sense full family participation was there but the final decisions were made by the elders, and the elders were always treated with respect and affection. With modernization and migration of male working member of their place of work the structure changed. Older members of the family remained at home along with pre school age children. Senior male had to manage economy of the family and grand-ma was primarily responsible for health management. Family get together were limited in number and some principal decisions elders were not always involved. (excerpt)