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Migrant behavior and the effects of regional prices: aspects of migrant selection in Colombia [tables]
[Unpublished] 1983. Presented at the 52nd Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, April 14-16, 1983. 3 p.If the preferences of potential migrants differ for activities and the structure of prices of these activities differ across regions, price variation may help to explain both who migrates and to where, and systematic behavioral differences between migrants and nonmigrants in consumption and investment, particularly as reflected in family size, child schooling, and child health. Colombia and Brazil are considered in the empirical analysis because these diverse countries involve traditional and dynamic frontier rural areas as well as urban centers where relative prices discourage high fertility and encourage schooling and health investments. (author's)
Economic Development and Cultural Change. 1982 Apr; 30(3):649-70.This essay argues that the drive toward a middle class style of life in developing countries has resulted over the past 30-odd years of conscious development effort in a series of negative consequences in diverse spheres: persistence of inequality, expansion of government, neglect of agriculture, and urban bias of education and research. The class context of development, the role of the middle class, the characteristics and components of the middle class life style, and the American contribution to its development are assessed, after which the methodology and results of measuring the poor and the middle class in the US and elsewhere are considered. Measurement of the middle class can be attempted through ownership of articles such as automobiles, through energy consumption, or through income: one estimate is that the global middle class increased from 200 million in 1950 to 800 million by 1980 through the addition of Japan, Europe, and some increase in the 3rd world. The nature of middle class work and the consequences of the preference for middle class work on the part of national elites for local development efforts is described, along with the related theme of the conflict between alleviation of poverty and development of an indigenous middle class in 3rd world countries. China and Brazil are viewed as the 2 extremes in this trade-off. The incentives to massive urban migration that occur in conjunction with development policies favoring the middle class are outlined. Finally, it is argued that reaching for middle class status is an explanatory rather than a policy variable. The social mechanisms that cause the spread of the middle class to take precedence over the alleviation of poverty need to be more closely examined.
[The influence of economic processes on population development] K vlivu ekonomickych procesu na populacni vyvoj
Politicka Ekonomie. 1982; 30(4):349-64.The author poses the question as to what causes the fluctuations in the birthrate and in population increments in the socialist countries. In order to arrive at an answer, he first analyzes demographic development in Czechoslovakia during the period 1869-1980. By comparing the differences between demographic development in Slovakia and the Czech lands, he shows the changes in demographic processes are not essentially determined by national, historical, or other factors, but are above all a complex reflection of changes in the economic mechanism. In the 2nd part of the article, the author examines in detail economic processes influencing natality and the development of population, as well as the mechanism of mutual influence which exists between demographic and economic processes. He points out that the different causes of demographic development cannot be derived from the level of the living standard, but from its changes (and/or changes in economic development). By analyzing data for the period 1948-80, the author arrives at a more precise definition of these changes in the economy. They include, for instance, changes in the rate of growth of the national economy, changes in the ratio of accumulation and consumption, changes in the ratio of national income formation and use, changes in the structure of the living standard, changes in the development of the economy and consumption in the direction of equilibrium or disequilibrium. At the same time, the author shows how these changes act toward their mutual synthesis. In each stage of development, the decisive factor for the size of population increments and natality is whether the ratio between resources and consumption is adequate, i.e., whether the relevant structure of the living standard is in accord with it. The author also examines the time lag between influences caused by changes in the economy and natality; he demonstrates that changes in the economy are effective only in this context if they overcome a threshold of sensitivity or if they accumulate in a specific manner. (author's modified) (summary in ENG)
Chapel Hill, N.C, University of North Carolina, 1982. 436 p.This research investigated the role of demographic factors in economic development. Specifically, a general model of the economic development process is constructed and then applied to the experience of South Korea from 1963-77. The model emphasizes the incorporation of demographic factors, widely interpreted to include not only the size, growth rate, and composition of the population, but also the quality of the population as minifested in the levels of human capital formation. South Korea has been 1 of the most successful of recent development efforts. Most of the research on the Korean phenomenon has highlighted the economic factors. Usually cited as responsible for the rapid, export led Korean economic development are the utilization of an able, motivated, but previously underemployed labor force, the large inflows of foreign capital, and the special relationships with Japan and the US, and the establishment of a strong central government, committed to economic development and able to implement effective growth policy. Important demographic factors, however were the impressive human capital formation that had begun 15 years prior to the onset of rapid economic growth and the dramatic declines in Korean fertility, which paralleled the economic achievements in the 1960s and 1970s. Using Korean national income data and economic-demographic selected surveys, the quantitative influences of demographic factors, particularly human capital formation and population dynamics, on Korean economic development for the 15-year period beginning in 1963 are assessed. The equations of the econometric model are estimated using either ordinary least squares of the 1st order autoregressive process. The empirical results show human capital formation to have been a significant and pervasive factor in recent South Korean economic development. Human capital formation, as proxied by indexes of formal educational attainment in the sectoral labor forces, was an important influence on real sectoral outputs and investments and in the growth of Korean exports. In addition, to the extent increases in education are associated with declines in fertility, human capital formation contributed to the substantial reductions in the growth rate of the Korean population, leading to favorable burden of dependency shifts and enhancing the ability of the Korean economy to generate the savings necessary for rapid growth and structural change. (author's)
Temas de Poblacion. 1983 Jul; 9(16):4-5.In the mid-1970s, some 120 million Latin Americans were unable to satisfy their most basic material needs. 55 million of them were in extreme indigency, unable to satisfy their minimal food needs even by using their entire incomes for that purpose. The rapid rate of demographic growth in Latin America influences the growth of the poor strata, who in absolute and relative terms show the highest rates of population growth. Despite heterogeneity in the manifestations of poverty, the poor have certain traits in common: employment outside the modern sector, with low productivity and little hope of generating stable incomes, low consumption capability, and lack of political power. 1 of the great problems of economic development in Latin America is the exclusion of the poorest strata from employment in better paid jobs. The high rate of fertility and rapid population growth provoke a negative interaction between population and development, in which the poorest strata reproduce most rapidly, becoming even poorer. A program of family planning within a development effort providing employment and income is needed to mitigate the problem, and no avenue or effort of implementation should be neglected on ideological grounds. Between 1960-70, the share of the poorest 20% of the population declined from 3.1% to 2.5% of the toal income of the region, while that of the poorest 1/2 increased slightly from 13.4% to 13.9%. In 1970 the poorest 20% had a per capita income of about US $70/year. It has been estimated that the proportion of the poor in Latin America declined from 51% in 1960 to 40% in 1970 and 33% at present, but the absolute number of persons affected continues to increase.
Population and Environment. 1983 Winter; 6(4):255-93.Because the earth's natural resources are finite and are growing increasingly more difficult to exploit, energy and resource conversation will soon become essential to our way of life. Psychologists and other social scientists can help in that transition, and recently they have begun to do relevant research in several areas; environmental pollution, recycling and solid wastes, reducing litter, and energy usage and conservation. Research approaches that have been used include studies of environmental and energy attitudes, behavioral research, social interaction studies, community conservation programs, and largescale consumer research. More work is especially needed on the topics of transportation energy use, industrial and commercial energy conservation, and community action campaigns. Research efforts should increasingly utilize measures of actual behavior and actual energy usage, longterm longitudinal approaches, realistic field settings, and cost effective procedures. In addition to doing research, psychologists can contribute to the advent of societal conservation through program evaluation studies, proposals for innovation, dissemination of validated scientific knowledge, and the offering of policy advice. (author's modified)
Renkou Yanjiu. 1982 Jul 29; (4):41-3, 24.The general trend in the last several hundred years has been that the speed of growth in the food supply exceeds the speed of the population growth. For the time being, 2 major problems still exist. The 1st problem is that food production is still influenced by natural conditions. For example, abnormal weather conditions may cause regional food shortages. The 2nd problem is the imbalance of food consumption by the world population. This phenomenon exists between different social classes as well as between developed and developing countries. According to statistics released by the World Bank, 1 billion suffer from malnutrition today and most of them are in developing countries. In developed countries, about half of their increase in the food supply is for feed grains, and those countries follow the policy of reducing farm land for the purpose of maintaing stabl e grain prices. Up to the present time, grain prices have been unstable, and this has become a rather heavy economic burden for numerous developing countries. Many developing countries are trying to increase grain production by increasing their arable land and promoting their cultivating techniques. However, these countries are facing the problems of finding and adequate water supply, fertilizer, and pesticides. In addition, a rapid population growth in these countries has offset their endeavors in agriculture. In recent years, these counties have realized the necessity of birth control. The world population growth rate has decreased from 2% to about 1.7% in 1981. Birth control and an increase in the food supply will bring new hope to the world's problems of overpopulation and food supply.
In: Goldscheider C, ed. Urban migrants in developing nations: patterns and problems of adjustment. Boulder, Colorado, Westview Press, 1983. 47-90.Discussion focuses on the adjustments of migrants to Seoul, Korea, analyzing the variety of ways migrants differ from lifetime residents and how recent and longterm migrants differ from each other. The socioeconomic characteristics of movers and nonmovers include: father's occupation, age, sex, education, and marital status. Move related variables apply only to migrants and include: farm or nonfarm background, rural or urban origins of the last move, previous exposure to urban areas, age sex marital status at the time of the move, and whether the move was alone or with family. Adjustment was analyzed in terms of labor force and occupational patterns, employment in modern and large industries, income, consumption patterns, housing, social and personal situation, organizational and friendship networks, and traditionalism and personal satisfaction. Recent migrants to Seoul have approximately the same levels of employment as longterm migrants, 89.6 versus 90.6%. Among recent migrants there are more persons in school than unemployed; among longterm migrants there are considerably fewer enrolled in school, with most unemployed. Lifetime urban residents have fewer persons employed, less than 80% of the total, with both higher school enrollment and higher unemployment. The different age compositions of these migrant residence categories account in part for the observed differences. Only 37% of recent migrants are employed in modern industries compared to over 50% of lifetime urban residents. Longterm inmigrants resemble most closely the lifetime urban residents, with 48% in modern enterprises. Over 57% of those with prior urban exposure are employed in modern industries. Income differences have an important role in the adjustment of migrants in the urban setting as a consequence of employment patterns and as a condition for obtaining consumer objects. There are significant differences in the personal income of migrants compared to lifetime urban residents. When the control variables of age, education, and father's occupation are introduced these effects are statistically reduced. Overall, recent migrants show ownership of considerably fewer objects than both lifetime urban residents and longterm migrants. Both migrant groups are relatively disadvantaged in the quality of their housing compared to the lifetime urban residents, but the disadvantage is very slight. Of all the dimensions of social and personal adjustment considered, membership in formal or informal organizations is most clearly related to potential migrant marginality in the urban structure. The differential shown is very pronounced and the standard of lifetime urban residents is approached only by educationally motivated migrants and those with some prior urban exposure, yet the pattern of social participation varies more by sociodemographic characteristics than by migrant recency. No evidence exists in support of the hypothesis that migrants to the cities compare unfavorably with the lifetime urban residents in their traditional attitudes. Age and education account for most of the observed differences in traditional attitudes.
The adjustment of migrants in large cities of less developed countries: some comparative observations.
In: Goldscheider C, ed. Urban migrants in developing nations: patterns and problems of adjustment. Boulder, Colorado, Westview Press, 1983. 233-53.Results of 4 case studies of Indonesia, South Korea, Iran, and Colombia may be compared along 3 broad dimensions of migrant adjustment to urban places: labor force, including employment and occupational patterns; housing, consumption, and income; and social and psychological elements of adjustment. Occupational changes and the economic mobility of migrants have important consequences for other forms of urban modern adjustments. Better jobs, higher incomes, quality housing, and increased consumer consumption are directly linked. These, in turn, are connected to social and social-psychological adjustments as well as to educational increases for the children of migrants. Occupational changes thus become the pivot around which migration and modernization revolve. Whatever the specific pattern, the relationships between migration and occupation are intertwined in complex ways with the economic development and social modernization of less developed countries. Comparative findings on occupational prestige lead to 3 conclusions: migrants are not particularly disadvantaged in terms of job prestige relative to comparable lifetime urban residents; occupational differences between migrants and natives reflect the background disadvantages of migrants, rather than the impact of migration per se; and over time, migrants attain the occupational levels that are consistent with their skills, education, and experience. These findings, almost without exception, emerge from all 4 case studies. In Korea and Iran, some elements of urban housing and neighborhoods quality are unrelated to migrant status. In Seoul, migrants and natives live in the same quality neighborhoods, consistent with their income and educational levels. Neither recency of migration nor migrant status was specifically associated with neighborhood quality. Parallel findings were reported for migrants to Tehran. 2 other measures of housing showed significant differences between migrants and lifetime urban residents: number of rooms per person and home ownership. Clearly migration status has a significant effect on some aspects of housing quality in Seoul and Tehran. Migrants to Surabaya are no worse off in terms of housing than those born in city. All migrants seem to improve their housing over time, yet 2 subgroups of migrants are particularly disadvantaged: migrants of farm background and the low income self employed. Regarding personal adjustment, defined in terms of traditionalism and satisfaction indexes, the case studies for Korea, Indonesia, and Colombia show little variation among migrant groups or between migrants and lifetime urban residents. The comparative examination of these studies suggests several interrelated, yet independent, dimensions of adjustment. Migrants adjust in some ways and not in other, while some migrants adjust better than others. Adjustment varies with the social, economic, political, and cultural context of urban places and changes over time. The overwhelming impression gained from these studies is that migration is positive for the migrants.
[Indexes for the evaluation of the effects of demographic aging: a critical examination] Indices pour evaluer les effets du vieillissement demographique: examen critique
Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie. 1982 Dec; 11(3):323-49.This article includes a description and comparison of the various ways to measure the burdens imposed on society by the process of demographic aging. In addition to the purely demographic concept of the percent elderly in the total population, other concepts are considered, including labor force participation, government expenditures, and the total of private and public consumption. The relative merits of these indicators are assessed. The geographic focus is on Canada and other industrialized countries. (ANNOTATION)
[Havana], Cuba, Comite Estatal de Estadisticas, . 126 p.This edition of "Cuba in Figures" contains selected indicators for different sectors which characterize the development of the national economy over the past few years. The statistical indicators for 1982-82 should be considered preliminary. The 16 sections provide data on the territory and climate; population, including resident population by sex and age group, the working age population by sex, the resident population by sex for provinces and municipalities and by rural or urban residence, annual growth rate, sex ratio, population distribution by social groups, and demographic rates; total production and indicators of sectoral production; labor force distribution and average salary levels; industrial production and basic indicators for the sugar, fishing, and other industries and energy consumption; contruction and housing; investment by components and provinces; agriculture and animal husbandry, including production, growth, land use patterns, irrigation, and activity indicators; transport and communications including total income, passenger and cargo totals, and structure and indicators of communications activity; internal commerce; external commerce; communal and personal services; education; culture and art; public health, including facilities, manpower resources, consultations, immunizations, and morbidity rates for reportable illnesses; tourism; and sports.
In: Luz y sombra de la vida: mortalidad y fecundidad en Bolivia [Light and dark of life: mortality and fertility in Bolivia], by Carlos Carafa, Gerardo Gonzalez, Valeria Ramirez, Rene Pereira, and Hugo Torrez La Paz, Bolivia, Proyecto Politicas de Poblacion, 1983. 1-42.Bolivia's population policy must be framed within 3 contexts: an economic and family structure which conditions production and reproduction; as part of Latin America, which is characterized by dependent development, structural heterogeneity, and social differentiation; and as a particlar socioeconomic structure with specific population dynamics. As a peripheral country subordinate to the developed capitalist nations, Bolivia has undergone a process of social differentiation. Mining, which has shaped the economy and society, is declining. Agriculture dominates in terms of jobs, but peasant farms cannot compete with agribusiness. A weak manufacturing sector and increasing urbanization have created vast underemployment and a swollen tertiary sector. Urban-rural disparities have widened. Only 2% of all rural health care needs are met; water and sewerage services are similarly deficient. As the main investor and largest employer, the government can guide development, but its policies have favored agroindustrial interests at the expense of the small farmer. These realities suggest the following working hypotheses: 1) the size, structure and growth of the population determines both the supply of labor and the demand for goods and services. 2) Bolivia's unbalanced occupational structure heightens class differences and disparities in life chances; reproductive patterns reflect the population's social and material circumstances. 3) Outmigration is the peasantry's response to the crisis of the rural areas; migratory movement follow economic activity. 4) Mortality and fertility differentials reflect socioeconomic and cultural differences; rural families see children as assets; 5) The costs fo bearing and raising children do not affect reproductive decisions among the peasantry. 6) Early marriages, low use of contraceptives, low education all interact to raise the fertility of peasant women; these factors are weaker among salaried workers. 7) Urbanization unleashes a number of changes which depress fertility; traditional values are eclipsed by the costs of childbearing. 8) Mortality risks are higher in the rural areas and affect all subgrups; urban areas exhibit greater variation. 9) Disparities in death and fertility rates suggest that different subgroups are at different stages of the demographic transition. Bolivia as a whole is in the 1st stage of this process.
[The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession] Disminucion del crecimiento de la poblacion, distribucion de ingresos y recesion economica
Desarrollo y Sociedad. 1983 May; (11):19-44.This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be provided to 3 productive sectors: traditional agriculture, small factories producing mass consumption goods, and construction of low income housing. The strategy would promote economic growth and expansion without further deterioration of income distribution, employment, and price stability. A simulation study demonstrated the advantages of such a strategy in relation to alternative strategies.
In: Council of Europe. Proceedings of the European Population Conference 1982 (Strasbourg, 21-24 September 1982). Strasbourg, France, Council of Europe, 1983. 291-313.The possible drawbacks and adverse effects of the current population trend of the fall in fertility and steady aging of the population were analyzed. Areas in which links may exist between the economy and population trends, which, in a European context, appeared most pertinent were chosen. It is generally considered that a reduction in the number of births well result in a reduction in certain areas of public expenditure. Thus, the "numbers" effect would appear to be favorable as far as public finance is concerned. Reduction in education expenditure could offset the increase in health expenditure. The education sector is rapidly affected by a decline in the number of births, and the impact of demographic fluctutations is felt for many years as the cohorts grow older. Germany, where the birth rate has fallen markedly, provides valuable information about what can happen in such a case and illustrates the need to adapt education facilities. Focus is on the number of pupils, demand for teachers it is possible that education costs may be somewhat reduced, health costs and social security contributions will definitely increase. The relationship between health expenditures and age can be depicted by means of a U-shaped curve. The largest consumers of medical care and advice are children under the age of 1 year and adults over the age of 65. A sudden fall in the birth rate may reduce health expenditure, but since the aging of the population continues inexorably, what is saved on the youngest will be used to care for the oldest. The underlying tendency imposed by the changes in the structure of population until the end of the century will be to reinforce the upward trend in expenditure. Social security expenditure clearly will be much more strongly affected by demographic trends than other forms of expenditure. There is no demographic reason why overall household consumption should fall since, assuming that there are no economic fluctuations, per capita income is likely to increase. With a declining population growth, the building of housing to meet demographic needs will also diminish. Since such facilities as schools, hospitals, housing, and transport, are generally planned from a longterm standpoint, decisions to build may be delayed, possibly indefinitely, because of variations in population size. If present demographic conditions persist, all regions should, in the long run and to varying degrees, experience population decline. The demographic conditions in which Europe is going to live will not necessarily damage production capacity, but they will make it more difficult to develope and adapt that capacity.
[Personal consumption and the mechanisms of population growth: a collection of articles] Lichnoe potreblenie v mekhanizme vosproizvodstva naseleniya: sbornik statei
Riga, USSR, Zinatne, 1983. 170 p.This collection of papers by different authors is concerned with socioeconomic aspects of population reproduction in the USSR. Topics considered include the functions of production and consumption under Socialism, the development of private consumption within the labor force as a means of raising social production, income and the formation of the labor potential of the family, the role of distribution ratios in population growth, some methodological issues involved in studying the regional impact of living standards on population growth, the relationship between family stability and selected material and social-psychological characteristics, and the employment of women and the education of children in society.
American Economist. 1983 Fall; 27(2):50-7.The author attempts to estimate the effects of the social security program on fertility in the United States from 1933 to 1974. A fertility model based on the choice theoretic calculus is presented, "with the distinguishing feature that the childbearing cohort's utility depends on own consumption as well as consumption of their retired parents. In this framework, changes in social security affect household income, and thus fertility, directly, as well as indirectly due to substitution of social security for private intergenerational transfers." (EXCERPT)
Habana, Cuba, Centro de Estudios Demograficos, Universidad de la Habana, 1982. 29 p. (Publicaciones de CEDEM, no. 45)Add to my documents.
[Dynamics of age structure, production and consumption] Dinamica de la estructura por edad, la produccion y el consumo.
Habana, Cuba, Centro de Estudios Demograficos, Universidad de la Habana, 1983. 29 p. (Publicaciones de CEDEM, no. 51)Add to my documents.
An economic-demographic model of the agricultural household: the case of Northern Mindanao, the Philippines.
Stanford, Calif., Food Research Institute, Stanford University, 1982. viii, 134 p. (Working paper, no. 8204)Add to my documents.
Economics Letters. 1982; 10(1-2):61-64.Add to my documents.
Laxenburg, Austria, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1983. viii, 57 p. (WP-83-17)Add to my documents.
Environment and Planning A. 1983 Mar; 15(3):307-17.It is shown how one dynamic element may be incorporated into operational urban models. That element is household mobility, caused by the evolution of households through stages in the life cycle. First, the paper is placed within the context of urban models next, a model is built and formally stated which incorporates the life-cycle process within the framework of dynamic operational urban models and then some implications of that model are drawn. (author's)
Geographical Analysis. 1983 Oct; 15(4):287-304.The independent but linked traditions of stock adjustment models of residential mobility and the hedonic theory of housing demand are brought together. The principal research findings of these traditions are reviewed, an application of the random utility model to housing choice and mobility decisions is proposed, and preliminary empirical results based on retrospective household surveys conducted in South Bend, Indiana, are reported. (author's)
Journal of Consumer Research. 1983 Dec; 10(3):292-302.The cultural assimilation of Mexican-Americans in the Southwest is assessed by comparing their food consumption patterns with those of income-matched Anglos living in the same region and those of income-matched Mexicans living in Mexico City. Rather than relying on self-report data as indicators of consumption patterns, data concerning the contents of the garbage of these three types of households are used. The results suggest that, contrary to predictions based on the traditional model of assimilation, Mexican-American consumption patterns are not a simple blending of Mexican and Anglo patterns. Rather, Mexican-American consumption patterns suggest the emergence of a unique cultural style. (author's)
[Unpublished] 1983. 40 p.Add to my documents.