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  1. 1

    Trends and opportunities abroad, 1987: an annual special publication of International Demographics.

    American Demographics

    INTERNATIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS. 1986 Dec; 5(12):i-x, 1-217.

    To facilitate understanding of the consumer market potential of today's world, "International Demographics" clusters the world's 150 largest countries based on their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The names of the 5 clusters--The Dependents, The Seekers, The Climbers, The Ultimate Consumers, and The Rocking Chairs--help identify the kind of consumer markets the countries represent. The 150 countries included in this 1987 volume are considered potential markets and are organized by cluster. All data cited are the most current numbers available, and all population estimates are the latest projections by the Center for International Research, US Census Bureau. Population trends of the next 14 years will change existing markets, and open new markets. However, due to rapid population growth in the poorest of the world economy, the Dependent countries, only intensified efforts on the part of the countries themselves and increased assistance from the international development community can pull these countries up. The sheer size of the market in Seeker and Climber countries is sufficient to indicate increased consumer demand. Add to that increasing income, the predominance of youth, and the ongoing rural-to-urban shift, and it is clear that demand will center on consumer durables for beginning families as the large proportions of youth will center on consumer durables for beginning families as the large proportions of youth enter their prime spending years of 15-64. Construction, sanitation, power, telecommunications, and transport are expected to boom as youth add pressure to urban job markets and housing. Slowed or stagnated growth in the rapidly aging Ultimate Consumer and Rocking Chair countries tells a different story. Some Rocking Chair countries such as West Germany already are experiencing natural decrease. Market growth in the Ultimate Consumer and Rocking Chair countries is geared to the increasingly sophisticated tastes and needs of the elderly rather than to an increase in numbers. 4 demographic factors help identify market potential--the average annual population growth rate, the average number of lifetime births per woman, the status of women, and urbanization. Countries not currently considered good potential markets are growing very rapidly at an average population growth rate of 2.5% or more and will continue to do so. The status of women is low, and the urban population is concentrated in 1 city. countries with good market potential are growing more slowly, at a rate of 1.5-2.5% a year. Fertility is under control, the status of women is improving, and urbanization is spread throughout the country.
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  2. 2

    The metro area of Montreal.

    American Demographics

    INTERNATIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS. 1986 Oct; 5(10):1-7.

    Montreal, one of the most civilized and cosmopolitan of North American cities, is the 2nd city in Canada in size and the largest French-speaking city. Of the 2.8 million people who lived there at census time in 1981, 45% chose both French and English as their official language, 41% chose French, and 1% used some other language. Fully 68% of Montreal residents said their mother tongue was French, and 68% also said they spoke French at home. The importance of bilingualism to the business culture of Montreal cannot be overemphasized. In the last decade, French-Canadians have taken an increasingly stronger role in business. Upper-middle-class suburbs that as little as 10 years ago had only 10% of their residents who were of French-Canadian descent now have as many as 50-60% of their residents who are French-Canadians. Most residents of Montreal willingly learn 2 languages. US firms should assume that all representatives who are sent to Montreal should be fluent in both French and English. Montreal's 2,828,349 people create a population density of 1004.9 persons per square kilometer. Montreal has 665 census tracts, which are described in the Metropolitan Atlas Series. Nearly 62% of Montreal's population fall between the ages of 20 and 64--the prime working ages. Although Montreal is 79% Catholic, it does not have the high fertility levels often associated with Catholic areas. There were 1,026,920 households in Montreal in 1981 with an average of 2.7 persons per household. 71% of these were census family households. Montreal had 1,026,895 occupied dwellings in 1985 with an average of 5 rooms each. About 71% of the population aged 15 and over that were not in school were in the labor force; 41% of the labor force was female. The largest employment category for men was manufacturing (16%) and the largest for women was clerical work (39%).
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  3. 3

    The city of Ottawa.

    American Demographics

    INTERNATIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS. 1986 Jun; 5(6):1-5, 7.

    As Canada's capital, Ottawa's main business is government. The City of Ottawa is a low-density residential community with an abundance of open space. The unprecedented development boom in the City of Ottawa's industrial, commercial, and residential sectors since 1981 reversed the city's declining population trend and slowed the continuous loss of inner-city residents to suburban neighborhoods and new communities outside the city. Ottawa's population is skewed toward an older population because professionals migrate to the city for work and do not leave as they age. In 1981, 8% of Ottawa's population was over 65 years old; by 2001 this percentage is expected to jump to 20%. Although Ottawa's population declined from 1961 to 1981, the total number of households grew at about 4% annually. The trend toward small household formation is expected to continue with the traditional family taking more and more of a minority position. Average household size declined from 3.2 in 1971 to an estimated 2.2 in 1984. There are approximately 147,100 dwelling units in the City of Ottawa of which 12,000 are nonconventional. A realistic density, excluding government-owned public and open space lands, is 15.6 housing units per acre. About half of all dwelling units are low density. By 1984, the city counted 69 shopping centers with over 4 million square feet of floor space. Ottawa's major employer is the federal government, with about 40% of all jobs within the city being civil service. Employment participation rates have increased signficiantly at just over 70% in 1983, up from 62% in 1971, due largely to increased participation by women. The City of Ottawa leads surrounding areas in per capita income due primarily to the increase in the number of young professionals who make up 1 and 2-person households.
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  4. 4

    Asia-Pacific report: trends, issues, challenges.

    East-West Center

    Honolulu, Hawaii, East-West Center, 1986. x, 104 p.

    This report contains a review of the major developments in the Asia-Pacific region over the past quarter century, as well as examinations of the trends, issues, and challenges that will be critical to the region's future and to its relations with the US. The view of the region as an arena of internal and international conflict that prevailed in the 1950s and 1960s has been replaced in the 1970s and 1980s by a focus on the rapid economic progress of many of the countries. The region includes 56% of the world's population in 33 independent countries and several territories covering 19% of the world's land area. Part I of the report comprises 2 broad overviews dealing with prospects for peace and continued economic progress. Chapter I examines encouraging trends and continuing problems in the political developments and international relations of the region, while Chapter 2 provides a brief survey of economic trends and challenges in the principal countries and country groups: the newly industrialized countries, the resource-rich Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, low-income southeast Asia, China, South Asia, and the Pacific island countries. Part II examines specific topic areas related to regional economic development which reflect current policy emphases at the East-West Center. Chapter 3 assesses the relationship between the world economy and economic development in the region and analyzes future prospects for external trade opportunities and access to capital. Chapter 4 discusses the connection between population growth and economic development, while also examining the demographic transition in the area, the role of family planning, and future demographic challenges. The influence of declining fertility on increased savings and improved education is explored. Chapter 5 assesse the longterm sustainability of the region's remarkable resource base, which is already under severe strain from the numbers of people requiring food, clothing, shelter, and fuel. The chapter demonstrates the conflict between shortterm exploitation of resources and policies that protect the resource base in the longterm. Chapter 6 reviews changing patterns of supply and demand for minerals and fuels, noting significant additions to supplies of some minerals in Oceania. Based on worldwide trends, access to minerals and fuels is not expected to be a constraint on economic development.
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  5. 5

    Human appropriation of the products of photosynthesis.

    Vitousek P; Ehrlich PR; Ehrlich AH; Matson P

    BIOSCIENCE. 1986 Jun; 36(6):11 p..

    This paper examines the human impact on the biosphere by calculating the fraction of net primary production (NPP) that humans have appropriated. NPP is the amount of energy left after subtracting the respiration of primary producers (mostly plants) from the total amount of energy (mostly solar) that is fixed biologically. NPP provides the basis for maintenance, growth, and reproduction of all heterotrophs (consumers and decomposers). It is the total food resource on Earth. The human impact on the biosphere is calculated in three ways. The low estimate is simply the amount of NPP that people use directly, such as food, fuel, fiber, or timber. The intermediate estimates include all the productivity of lands devoted entirely to human activities. Intermediate estimates calculation also includes the energy activity consumed by humans. Meanwhile, high estimates calculation includes productive capacity lost as a result of converting open land to cities and forests to pastures or because of desertification or overuse (overgrazing, excessive erosion). Results of the calculations are presented.
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  6. 6

    Human appropriation of the products of photosynthesis.

    Vitousek PM; Ehrlich PR; Ehrlich AH; Matson PA

    BIOSCIENCE. 1986 Jun; 36(6):368-373.

    Earth's resources are consumed by one of its 5-30 million species, homo sapiens or man, at a rate disproportionately greater than any other species. Man's impact on the biosphere is measured in terms of net primary production (NPP). NPP is the amount of energy remaining after the respiration of primary producers (mostly plants) is subtracted from the total amount of biologically fixed energy (mostly solar). Human output is determined by 1) the direct NPP used for food, fuel, fiber, or timber, which yields a low estimate, 2) all NPP of cropland devoted to human activity, and 3) both 1) and 2) and land conversion for cities or pastures as well as conversion which results in desertification and overuse of lands. This last output determination yields a high estimate. Calculations are made for global NPP and each of the 3 estimates of low, intermediate, and high human output. Data are based on estimates by Ajtay et al., Armentano and Loucks, and Houghton et al. and on the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) summaries. Petagram (Pg) is used to calculate organic matter; this is equivalent to 10 to the 15th power grams or 10 to the 9th power metric tons. Carbon has been converted to organic matter by multiplying by 2.2. Matter in kilocalories has been converted to organic matter by dividing by 5. Intermediate or conservative estimates have been included. The standard of biomass is 1244 Pg and an annual NPP to 132.1. The NPP of marine and freshwater ecosystems is considered to be 92.4 Pg, which is a low estimate. The low calculation of human (5 billion persons) consumption of plants at a caloric intake of 2500 kilocalories/person/day is .91 Pg of organic matter, which equals .76 Pg of vegetable matter. The global production of human food is 1/7 Pg for grains and for human and livestock fed, or .85 Pg of dry grain material and .3 Pg in nongrain dry material with dry grain material and .3 Pg in nongrain dry material with a subtraction of 20% for water content. 34% or .39 Pg is lost to waste and spoilage. Consumption by livestock, forest usage, and aquatic ecosystems is computed. The overall estimate for human use if 7.2 Pg of organic matter/year or 3% of total NPP/year. The intermediate figures take into account, cropland, pastureland, forest use, and conversion; the overall estimate of human use is 42.6 Pg of NPP/year of 19.0% (42.6/224.5) of NPP (30.7% on land and 2.2% on seas). The high estimate yields human use of 58.1 Pg/year on land or 40% (58.1/149.6) of potential land productivity or 25% (60.1/149.8 + 92.4) of land and water NPP. The remaining 60% of land is also affected by humans. The figures reflect the current patterns of exploitation, distribution, and consumption of a much larger population. These patterns amount to using >50% of NPP of land; there must be limits to growth.
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  7. 7

    [Communication for development: interpretation and possibilities] Comunicacion para el desarrollo. Interpretacion y posibilidades.

    Tello Charun MR

    [Unpublished] [1986]. 12, [1] p.

    Communication plays a fundamental role in the national development process regardless of the type of social system in which it is conducted, but it is not the fundamental pillar or the independent variable stimulating development. Communication is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for development. There are principal structural obstacles to communication for national development in Latin America. These include limited participation of rural masses in national processes, social domination and inequitable distribution of income owing to the dependent status of Latin America in the world arena, and the use of communications media to promote consumption of products of transnational industries. The transnationalization of information and advertising serve the needs of the central countries rather than of the developing countries. Dependency relations and the cultural agression of the developed countries prevent Latin American countries from viewing the world through their own perspective and consequently impede active participation. Disinformation becomes a strategy; a series of myths and stereotypes are advanced to preserve the cultural domination of the dependent countries, such as the myth of objectivity or of independence in relation to advertising agencies or sources of financing. The role of the Latin American university should respond to these communications obstacles by questioning the basic assumptions and mechanisms of cultural domination, exploring the myths, and developing alternative information and communications strategies more appropriate to national development objectives.
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  8. 8

    The water crisis and population. [Pamphlet collection].

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO]

    [Rome, Italy], FAO, [1986]. vi, [126] p.

    The dimensions of the water crisis and its implications for the population of the world is the subject of a 4-pamphlet packet distributed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Part 1 relates legends about water and details the role of water in human history. Rapid population growth and its detrimental effects on water conservation and the environmental balance are explained. Recognition of the population growth problem is urged, with government-backed family planning programs recommended. Part 2 gives a detailed explanation of the life cycle and its dependence on soil and water. Climate, vegetation, and types of water are examined in relation to their role in the distribution of available water resources. Future water resources and demand are projected for agriculture, industry, and domestic use. The disruption of the balance between man and water and the problem of water pollution are addressed, as are deforestation, desertification, drought, and the greenhouse effect. Part 3 offers a view of inland waters and agriculture, with a history of irrigation and the role of irrigation today. Rural water, its use, sources, storage, and collection are examined in relation to work distribution, family size, and sanitation. Problems arising from unsafe water supplies, including disease, infection, and malnutrition are discussed, and examples are given of small-scale projects that have successfully addressed these problems. The final section deals with water and the future. A continuing effort at water and land conservation, as well as surface water and ground water management, is urged. Irrigation planning and supporting systems, such as terracing, fallowing, and improved cropping patterns, are presented as further management techniques. Preserving existing resources, lifting, various kinds of wells, new storage methods and purification systems, are suggested to increase domestic water conservation. Examples of water projects in Africa, Asia, and the South Pacific are presented. Finally, population management and its crucial role in future water resources allocation, conservation, and distribution, is provided.
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  9. 9

    Spread of smoking to the developing countries.

    Tominaga S

    In: Tobacco: a major international health hazard. Proceedings of an international meeting organized by the IARC and co-sponsored by the All-Union Cancer Research Centre of the Academy of Medical Sciences of the USSR, Moscow, USSR, held in Moscow, 4-6 June 1985, [edited by] D.G. Zaridze, R. Peto. Lyon, France, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 1986. 125-33. (IARC Scientific Publications No. 74)

    In most developing countries, tobacco consumption has been relatively low in the past. It has been increasing in recent years as developed countries have exported more cigarettes to developing countries, and as developing countries have cultivated more tobacco themselves to produce cheaper tobacco, at the sacrifice of food production. Tobacco sales are an important source of revenue for governments in the developing countries as in the developed countries. The spread of smoking to developing countries and the increase in tobacco consumption have had several adverse effects: an increase in lung cancer and other smoking-related diseases; an increase in economic burdens resulting from imports of cigarettes from developed countries and increased medical costs for smoking-related diseases; and decreases in production and import of foods. There are many obstacles and constraints to smoking control in the developing countries, but smoking control is badly needed to prevent lung cancer and other smoking-related diseases, to alleviate economic burdens, and to increase the production and import of foods. (author's)
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  10. 10

    Demographic influences on female labor supply.

    Sengupta P

    Ann Arbor, Michigan, University Microfilms International, 1986. 209 p.

    This research investigates the effects of household age-sex composition on the labor supply of women in [a developing country] setting. It is based on a new approach of modelling the economic consequences of variation in the individual and family life cycle developed by Lee (1983). It is posited that each person is capable of producing four types of effects: (1) generate demand for consumer goods...(2) supply time to market activity...(3) create demand for home production...and (4) supply time to housework....These per capita effects depend on the age and sex of each person and are regarded as exogenous, determined partly by biological needs and partly by socio-cultural norms....The empirical results of this research, derived from Malaysian Family Life Survey data (1976-77), have generally confirmed the usefulness of the basic approach described above. This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of California at Berkeley. (EXCERPT)
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  11. 11

    Commodity production and population control in rural areas.

    Wang M

    POPULATION RESEARCH. 1986 Apr; 3(2):9-14.

    The effect of growth of rural commodity production in China on population is discussed theoretically. In primitive societies, rural people desire more children to do the work; in capitalist societies they desire fewer because children need to be educated and interfere with consumption. In socialist societies, desired family size depends on the developmental level. In China, rural industrial output made up 11.7% of the national product in 1982, and is growing. The economic structure is changing so that 100 million people will be working in rural enterprises by 2000. Childbearing practices will change as people are freed from the land. Several trends will limit population growth. As incomes rise, desire for consumer goods will decrease population growth. Investment in production, technical education, science and culture will increase. Rural development will make funds available to spend on family planning. On the other hand, rural commodity production may stimulate population growth temporarily because currently the production unit is the family, and many specialized workers are needed to run these enterprises. Other factors, such as traffic and poor transport in market towns, slow change in attitudes of rural people, the tradition of small production units will reverse family planning trends. Another possible factor is focusing effort on material production rather than family planning work. Measures to be taken to enhance family planning while rural development takes place include: encouragement of large-scale production and specialization of labor; investment in education in technology, science, culture and health; adaptation of family planning methods to local conditions; and training of more and better qualified family planning workers.
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  12. 12

    [Nutrition in Peru: problems and possibilities] Alimentacion en el Peru: problemas h posibilidades.

    Paz Silva LJ

    In: Problemas populacionales Peruanos II, [edited by] Roger Guerra-Garcia. Lima, Peru, Asociacion Multidisciplinaria de Investigacion y Docencia en Poblacion, 1986. 225-36.

    This work is an amplification of an article on food production and rural problems that appeared in the original volume of "Peruvian Population Problems" published in 1980. Because the problems identified 5 years earlier remain largely unchanged, this article contains additional ideas for improving production and distribution of foods, taking into account the unfavorable economic conditions and poorly developed internal market in Peru. There is a tendency for ministeries of agriculture to attribute production increases to good policy, while decreases are explained by poor weather or unfavorable international marketing conditions. Government policy influences production, but in statistical analyses and in policy decisions, climatic and market conditions each year should be objectively considered in order to avoid intentional or unintentional deception. Taking 1979 as the base year, agricultural production declined by 20% and livestock production by 1.4% in 1980. In 1981, production increases of 4.1% were achieved except in sugar cane, while in 1983 the increase was over 17% and in 1983 there was an 8.3% decline. Between 1980-84, Peruvian exports of coffee, sugar, and cotton amounted to nearly 1 billion dollars, but imports of foods amounted to 2 billion dollars. Foods imported were primarily wheat, maize, milk products, and soy beans. Dependence on food imports is a significant factor in food price increases. Apart from increasing the quantity of land under cultivation, there is a significant potential for increased agricultural production through improved productivity and commercialization, more complete utilization of products, and subproducts, and increased export of nontraditional agricultural products. Increases in productivity can be achieved by transferring to farmers the achievements of plant researchers. The costs of inputs necessary for the new agricultural techniques must not be excessive in relation to prices paid to growers, and the various institutions providing agricultural services must coordinate their programs. The purchashing power of the population must be increased if nutritional status is to improve. Efforts should initially be focussed on increasing production of foods that would otherwise be imported, including wheat, barley, maize, oils, milk products, meat, and on products for export. The food policy should address issues of availability of food, including a family planning program as a basic component; family income and food expenditures; physical infrastructure for community food supplies and services; nutrition education, basic sanitation, international food aid, and similar issues; development of institutions for community participation in food supply and distribution; and training of personnel to design and implement rural development and food policies.
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  13. 13

    Human capital and the rise and fall of families.

    Becker GS; Tomes N

    JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS. 1986 Jul; 4(3, Pt. 2):1-47.

    This paper develops a model of the transmission of earnings, assets, and consumption from parents to descendants. The model assumes utility-maximizing parents who are concerned about the welfare of their children. The degree of intergenerational mobility is determined by the interaction of this utility-maximizing behavior with investment and consumption opportunities in different generations and with different kinds of luck. We examine a number of empirical studies for different countries. Regression to the mean in earnings in rich countries appears to be rapid. Almost all the earnings advantages or disadvantages of ancestors are wiped out in three generations. A comment by Robert J. Willis is included (pp. 40-7). (EXCERPT)
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  14. 14

    Demographic trends and saving propensities: "a revisit with life cycle theory"..

    Owens EW

    ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL. 1986 Dec; 14(4):106.

    This paper uses the life cycle hypothesis to explain why personal savings in the U.S. have fallen to a low of 1.9% of disposable income in 1985, despite tax cuts. Life cycle theory envisions an individual's lifetime as a series of choices of current consumption and allocation of net worth between alternative assets and liabilities so as to maximize the expected utility of consumption over life. The mathematical expression for the utility function implies the stochastic nature of future return on aessts and independence at any given age of the ratio of consumption to resources to total resources. Population growth leads to positive saving overall by increasing the ratio of younger households. The proportion of younger households (ages 25-44) in the U.S. population increased by 10.3 million from 1980-1985, and this growth is expected to continue. Older households increased their savings, but younger families are borrowing more and spending the money their elders saved.
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  15. 15

    Malthus' preconditions to moral restraint and modern population economics.

    Silber J

    GENUS. 1986 Jul-Dec; 42(3-4):13-21.

    The author examines the writings of Malthus and compares them with basic tenets of two modern economic approaches to fertility studies. It is suggested that "Leibenstein and Easterlin, on the one hand, base their arguments on the central role of aspirations and of relative income or status, whether it be that of the parents or of the friends and neighbors. We argue that aspirations and relative income effects are quite close to Malthus' ideas on 'forward looking' and self respect. The other modern economic approach to fertility studies, the Chicago school, is centered on the effect of human capital on consumption and fertility decisions, and we think that this idea was not too strange to Malthus when he emphasized foresight and the desire for knowledge." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA) (EXCERPT)
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  16. 16

    Trends and opportunities abroad, 1987.

    Rusoff D; Walsh D

    Ithaca, New York, International Demographics, 1986. x, 217 p.

    This volume contains descriptions of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and basic statistics on social indicators, the status of women, urbanization, and economic indicators for 50 countries grouped into 5 clusters--the Dependents, the Seekers, the Climbers, the Ultimate Consumers, and the Rocking Chairs--to help identify the kind of consumer markets the countries represent. The clusters give market researchers a quick way of targeting potential world markets for further research effort. Population trends are powerful movers and shakers. For Seeker and Climber countries, current and anticipated growth in populations and income mean expanding markets far into the future. For Ultimate Consumer and Rocking Chair countries, increasingly sophisticated tastes and the needs of the aging will fuel the market. For Dependent countries--the poorest part of the world economy--only intensified efforts by the countries themselves and greater assistance from the international development community can pull these countries up in the face of relentless demographic pressure. The sheer size of the market in Seeker and Climber countries is enough to indicate increasing consumer demand. 4 demographic factors help identify market potential; 1) the average annual population growth rate, 2) the average number of lifetime births per woman, 3) the status of women, and 4) urbanization. Dependent countries rely primarily on others for food supplies, for professional assistance in building infrastructure, and for educating their youth. Concerted efforts are being made in Seeker countries to improve health and education, slow population growth, upgrade the status of women by encouraging them to participate in higher education and the labor force, and increase access to family planning. Climber countries are demographically the most important expanding markets in the world today. Change lies ahead in the purchasing behavior of mature households in Ultimate Consumer countries as the more educated, more moneyed middle-aged people enter the ranks of the elderly.
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  17. 17

    The family that does not reproduce itself.

    Keyfitz N


    Mean family size in the industrial nations is less than the 2.1 children per couple needed for the population to remain constant over the long run. The countries of Western Europe have a mean family size of about 1.61 children per couple, with West Germany as low as 1.42, Japan at 1.71, Europe as a whole at 1.9, and the US at 1.85. The decline of births is related to 1) contraception, for the 1st time controlled by women; 2) women's employment outside the home; and 3) the democratization of decision making within couples. Work opportunities for women lower the birth rate, but they do so by freeing women from the dictatorship of men. The activity of child rearing is compared with other uncompensated activities that occupy people's leisure on the one hand, and with paid work in the other hand. Clerical work, women's current alternative to the 19th century factory, has agreeable social elements combined with tolerable and limited duties. Staying home with children can be lonely 7 days a week; it lacks crisp challenges and interpersonal relations. If parents do not spend their money and time producing children, they can apply both money and time to the purchase and use of dazzling array of other goods. Children are no longer investments in the traditional sense because 1) children are in large part no longer formed by parents but by television, schools, and peer groups; and 2) parents rely on their own savings and the state to provide for their old age. A feature of earlier high fertility was the inculcation of differentiated gender roles starting long before marriage. Women has few choices beyond raising children. The spread of high-fertility cultures did not need to be planned by anyone; sheer aithmetic worked at 2nd remove to make male dominance universal. This article argues that under modern conditions there will be few children.
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  18. 18

    Altruism and the economic theory of fertility.

    Becker GS; Barro RJ


    The economic approach to fertility emphasizes the effects of parents' income and the cost of rearing children. With a few exceptions, this approach has neglected the analytical links between decisions by different generations of the same family. This article develops the implications of altruism toward children, where utility of parents depends on their own consumption, their fertility, and the utility of each of their children. Altruism toward children implies that the welfare of all generations of a family is linked through a dynastic utility function that depends on the consumption, fertility, and number of descendants in all generations. The head of a dynastic family acts as if he maximizes dynastic utility subject to a dynastic budget constraint, which involves the wealth inherited by the head, interest rates, the cost of rearing children in all generations, and the earnings of all descendants. The authors neglect uncertainty, marriage, the spacing of births, and capital-market restraints over life cycles and across generations. Nevertheless, even a highly simplified model of altruism toward children and the behavior of dynastic families appears to us to capture important important aspects of the dynamic behavior of fertility and consumption. If so, a new approach would be warranted to the analysis of trends and long-term fluctuations in fertility, population growth, and consumption.
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  19. 19

    Variation in the level of living across social groups in India during 1973-74.

    Bhattacharya N; Pal P

    DEMOGRAPHY INDIA. 1986 Jul-Dec; 15(2):253-7.

    The authors compare the standard of living, as measured by per capita consumption expenditure, among five social-class groups in India using data from a national sample survey. (ANNOTATION)
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  20. 20

    [The decline of marriage] Le recul du mariage.

    Forse M


    The implications of current changes in marriage patterns in France are explored. The author notes that the growing popularity of consensual union has not significantly affected the homogamy of couples and the transfer of resources between generations. However, the social and economic consequences of these changes in nuptiality are significant, involving a decline in fertility, changes in the demand for employment, increased housing needs, changes in social security, and changes in consumer demands. (ANNOTATION)
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  21. 21

    Report on the basic survey of population and development in Southeast Asian countries: India.

    Asian Population and Development Association

    Tokyo, Japan, Asian Population and Development Association, 1986 Mar. 115 p.

    The findings of a 1985 survey concerning population and development problems in India are reported. The survey covered a sample of 280 households in two regions. In the first two chapters, an overview of population dynamics and health issues in India is presented, and various aspects of urbanization are discussed. Tables in the third chapter provide information on the survey sample, including age distribution, place of birth, income and occupational status, consumption of selected durable goods, educational status, delivery of health services, family planning practice, family characteristics and size, married women in the labor force, and migration. A sample of the questionnaire used is included.
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  22. 22

    Return migration and urban change: a Jordanian case study.

    Findlay A; Samha M

    In: Return migration and regional economic problems, edited by Russell King. London, England, Croom Helm, 1986. 171-84.

    Using a survey of 173 households from 1984, this paper examines the nature of recent return migration to Jordan, with particular reference to the capitol city, Amman. Emigration is very evident in Jordan, which has an estimated 40% of its work force employed abroad. Remittances from 20% of its gross national product. Not only has employment in oil-rich countries declined since 1979, return migration has also accelerated. Return migration as a part of international migration has become an extremely important force in generating urban change in Jordan. The date of emigration directly influenced the probability of return, but no associaton was found between the place of birth and return migration or between countries of employment and current and return migration. Return migrants had slightly smaller households than current migrants. Return migrants were much more likely to have purchased land as an investment or to have used their remittances for house construction or alterations than current migrants. Neither return nor current migrants showed much interest in devoting their remittances to agriculture and industry; a similar proportion of both groups used their foreign earnings to educate another family member. The geographic impact of return migration is evident in the present physical growth of Jordan's cities.
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  23. 23

    The readjustment of return migrants in western Ireland.

    Gmelch G

    In: Return migration and regional economic problems, edited by Russell King. London, England, Croom Helm, 1986. 152-70.

    This paper looks at the adjustment made by return migrants to resettling in small communities in western Ireland. Although some theories suggest that the psychic costs of return migration may be low due to prior experience with the destination, the cases described here present a different picture. Some migrants pick up quickly where they left off; others become unhappy and disillusioned. While returnees are often better off financially than their neighbors, they are often bitter and disappointed about life in their homeland. The sample included 606 return migrants from County Cork in the south to County Donegal in the north. 51% of the migrants were men, and 49% were women. The average length of stay abroad was 17 years. The greatest readjustment problem for returnees is dealing with the slow pace of life in Ireland and coping with widespread inefficiency. The 2nd most important problem involves reestablishing relationships with local people; returnees felt that local people were narrow-minded and nosey. Many returnees had forgotten the severity of Irish winters. 1/10 of the returnees found the economic situation very unfavorable. A moderate relationship was found between readjustment and both housing and job satisfaction. The variable most strongly related to adjustment was a satisfactory social life. Developing friendships and gaining local acceptance are very important; conformity may be the key factor in gaining local acceptance. Migrants, on the whole, do not learn skills abroad that they are able to use at home. Purchasing a home remains returnees' highest priority, although many also use savings to set up a small business. Returnees may affect their communities most by example; young people may see them as more worldly and well-to-do than nonmigrants and be encouraged to follow their example.
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  24. 24

    The economic impact of return migration in central Portugal.

    Lewis J; Williams A

    In: Return migration and regional economic problems, edited by Russell King. London, England, Croom Helm, 1986. 100-28.

    This paper analyzes the economic behavior of returned emigrants from Europe (regressados), refugees from the ex-colonies (retornados), and nonmigrants in contrasting regions of central Portugal. Due to the overwhelming importance of migration to its economy, Portugal offers an excellent opportunity to assess both the behavior of different types of migrants and the effects of their behavior in regions with marked variations in economic development. Both international emigration and regional inequality are long-standing features of the Portugese economy; they act as mutually reinforcing trends. The lack of opportunity in the poorer regions means that emigration offers one of the few opportunities for advancement, but its beneficial effects for households are not dispersed widely enough to present sufficient opportunities for the next generation. The economic instincts of returnees are to follow the lead of nonmigrants in a given community and not to swim against the tide. More innovative returnees have the option of migrating to one of the more dynamic environments in the region. The type of emigration that has been undertaken influences subsequent behavior, although similarities in economic behavior exist between retornados, regressados, and non-emigrants. A closer specification of these similarities will help to reduce the expectations placed on returnees to areas with poor economic prospects. Regressados return to their villages to retire or to run small farms; others prefer to invest in industrial firms only where there is an expanding market. Well-intentioned policies to harness the economic potential of returnees in developing poor regions will not work any better in the future than they have worked in the past.
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  25. 25

    Gastarbeiter go home: return migration and economic change in the Italian Mezzogiorno.

    King R; Strachan A; Mortimer J

    In: Return migration and regional economic problems, edited by Russell King. London, England, Croom Helm, 1986. 38-68.

    Most migrants return home not because of redundancy in the host country but because of a more complex mix of personal, family, emotional, and economic reasons, which conditions the impact that returnees have on their regions. This paper examines the economic impact of return migration on southern Italy, especially employment and the use of savings and remittances. 705 interviews in 486 households (including 197 wives and 22 working-age children) comprised the sample. Study results generally confirm the more pessimistic evaluations of other work in the backward and environmentally deprived areas of southern Italy. Migration and return have not generally had positive long-term economic effects on southern Italy. At the individual level, however, migration appears to be a successful and valued experience in financial terms. Emigration is not desirable in itself but as a means to an end--an improved standard of living, possessions, social status, and the satisfaction these bring. Emigration does not generally lead to better job prospects on return. "Sacrifice" and "duty to one's family" were recurrent themes in the interviews; only 6.7% of the returnees were planning to go abroad again. Acquired skills and accumulated capital do flow in with the returnees, but these inputs are not used to their full potential, partly due to the uncoordinated, individualistic, and familistic behavior of returnees and partly due to the lack of a government framework to make use of funds.
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