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    020572

    Economic development and population control: a fifty-year projection for Jamaica.

    Walsh BT

    New York, Praeger, 1971. 134 p. (Praeger Special Studies in International Economics and Development)

    The study objective was to gather and analyze support for the thesis that economic growth in a developing country can be substantially increased and accelerated by reductions in fertility rates. Jamaica was chosen as a case example because of the availability and reliability of demographic and economic data. Conclusions are based on demographic and economic projections for Jamaica covering the 1970 through 2020 period. Population growth is estimated under 4 fertility assumptions: constant and reduced by 1, 2, and 3% a year. Estimates are included of numbers of persons needed to accept effective contraceptive methods to reduce births to stipulated levels of fertility. The economic part of the model considers effects on production due to the amount of capital and labor available, changes in the capital labor ratio, economies of scale, and technological progress. Important features not previously incorporated within a single model include the costs of a fertility reduction program and other welfare expenditures and the effects of changes in the capital labor ratio on employment. Savings are made a function of total income and of increases in consumption brought about by net additions to the population. Consumption is calculated on the basis of equivalent adult consumers. The economic relationships are described by a series of simultaneous equations containing 20 economic variables. Estimates, on a yearly basis, are made for gross national product; private, public, and total consumption in aggregate and per equivalent adult consumer; gross domestic savings; foreign savings; gross domestic investment; demographic investment; welfare investment; net fixed total and productive capital formation; stock of total and productive capital; capital consumption allowance; imports minus exports; net foreign transfer payments; and the capital labor ratio. The entire investigation is directed toward analyzing the effects of population growth on economic growth. The labor directed toward analyzing the effects of population growth on economic growth. The labor force in Jamaica is currently increasing much more rapidly than it ever did previously (3% per year). The growth will accelerate through 2000. Reduction in fertility rates will have no substantial influence on the size of labor force until after that item. Up through 1985, this effect is self evident because entrants into the labor force have already been born, but, even for the additional 15 years beyond that, the effect is gradual and slow. The great increase in labor force for at least the next 30 years is due to high birthrates in the recent past. The impact of mortality declines will make little difference to the size of the labor force. By 2020 the projections indicate that some decline in the rate of increase in the size of the labor force will occur under medium and low fertility assumptions. There is present in Jamaica much disguised unemployment and underemployment. A great need exists for strong and coordinated efforts in population and all other planning.
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