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Bethesda, Maryland, Abt Associates, Partners for Health Reform Plus, 2006 Mar.  p. (USAID Development Experience Clearinghouse DocID / Order No: PN-ADF-999; USAID Contract No. HRN-C-00-00-00019-00)The pharmaceutical and medical supply system for Ministry of Health hospitals in Jordan is bureaucratic and centralized. Routine paperwork consumes staff time that ideally would go to patient care, procurement does not necessarily match medical needs, pharmacists have little access to the latest information, and resources are limited. This assessment looks at the pharmaceutical system in terms of structure, process, and outcomes to identify its strengths and weaknesses. Drug utilization is measured against internationally established indicators. Based on its findings, the assessment makes recommendations that are intended to lead to improvements in patient care, administrative procedures, use of staff, and financial resources. (author's)
Journal of Human Ecology. 2004; 15(1):1-3.Energy has been termed as the fuel of economic progress. It is the prime mover of economic growth and development. Food, fibre, shelter are three basic needs of mankind. As one civilization changed to another, the basic needs also changed. Man has to spent energy in one form or the other to meet these needs. Household activities are one of the most important activities of rural Indian from the point of view of energy expenditure for human life support. It is a well known fact that women are the primary users of human energy required for carrying out various household activities. In a household amongst manifold activities energy is required mainly for meal preparation activity. Therefore it was imperative to study the human energy costs during meal preparation. (excerpt)
New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1991 Aug. 34 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 641)The debate on macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy has focused on the question of whether the timing of taxes matters but has neglected the study of the relevance of the timing of public spending. This paper tries to fill that hole by presenting a model of dynamic fiscal policy where firms behave non competitively and households have finite horizons. I show that the existence of monopoly rents makes the timing of future government spending relevant. In particular I show that, contrary to the prediction of most other models of fiscal policy, an anticipated increase in public spending financed by subsequent tax increases may have expansionary effects as the positive wealth effect associated with monopoly rents outweights the negative wealth effect of anticipated higher taxes. I also show that if the public spending expansion is financed by subsequent public spending contraction, the experiment has unambiguous expansionary effects. The model presented can be thought as a microfounded story of Blanchard's Good-News-Bad-News model of public policy. (author's)
[Demographic temporalities and environmental temporalities: are they compatible?] Temporalites demographiques et temporalites environnementales: sont-elles compatibles?
In: Regulations demographiques et environnement. Actes des VIes Journees demographiques de l'ORSTOM, 22-24 septembre 1997 - Paris, sous la direction de Laurent Auclair, Patrick Gubry, Michel Picouet, Frederic Sandron. Paris, France, Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, 2001 Feb. 13-20. (Etudes du CEPED No. 18)Research conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that human activity is affecting the earth's climate through the greenhouse effect. The effect is associated with the atmospheric accumulation of a number of gases, mainly carbon dioxide, during human activities in the energy, industrial, and agricultural sectors. The only way to limit or avoid potential climatic damage resulting from such accumulation is to end the accumulation. Starting right now, measures must be taken to control atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases over the next 100 years. The more that stable concentrations of these gases approach pre-industrial concentrations, the more the world's population will be able to thrive without affecting the global climate. However, population growth and the growing material needs of developing country populations oppose the establishment and maintenance of a fixed ceiling for greenhouse gas emissions. The author considers how to reduce global energy consumption and agricultural and industrial emissions over the next 50 years given such constraints. Discussion unfolds in sections on time constraints in moving forward, demographics and development, and the key role of demographic and economic perspectives in debate over global change.
In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany, Springer-Verlag, 1989. 306-24. (Studies in Contemporary Economics)In this paper, a normative model is constructed in order to calculate optimal growth patterns for economies with arbitrary population development, social welfare functions, production functions, and social security systems. It turns out that in almost all cases an optimal growth pattern is not synonymous with full employment, except in the classic case of exponential population growth. (author's)
PEOPLE. 1990; 17(1):3-5.The 1990s are out last chance to positively affect the environment so as to sustain the human race. A key area of concern is rapid population growth. For example, at the present rate using a median calculation, the 1990 world population of 5.2 billion will reach zero population growth (10.5 billion) in the 2100s. If developing countries with high fertility rates could reduce the rates as did other developing countries, such as China, Taiwan, and Zimbabwe, the population could level out at < or = 8.5 billion. On the other hand, if these same countries do nothing to reduce their fertility rates the population would reach > or = 14 billion. We know how to prevent such staggering growth, but the world community must act immediately. Approximately 33% of couples in developing countries with to increase the periods between children or to have no more children at all, yet they do not have access to contraceptives. The international community must spend $2-4 billion/year in addition to the $3 billion/year spent in 1990 to stabilize the population earlier and at a lower level. This situation just exacerbates the problem of the strain on the Earth's ecosystems. Even if humans were to become extinct in 2000, ecological damage caused by their activity will undo food webs which in turn will cause the extinctions of many species for a century. The 1 billion materialistic very-rich and the 1 billion extremely-poor cause most of the world's energy and the extremely-poor live off of marginal environments causing deforestation, desertification, and soil erosion. The poor need to be empowered to improve their lives which will lead to family planning practices. We must all act not to save the human race and our planet.
POPULATION RESEARCH (BEIJING). 1988 Dec; 5(4):17-30.Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.
Period and cohort trends for mortality and cigarette consumption in England and Wales, 1946 to 1980, with emphasis on sex ratios.
JOURNAL OF CLINICAL EPIDEMIOLOGY. 1988; 41(4):373-84.This study continues previous work on the relationship between smoking and mortality using data for England and Wales for the period 1946-1980. "In this paper temporal changes in the sex ratio of cumulative cigarette consumption by cohort, and of smoking rates by age, are considered in relation to changes in the sex ratio of mortality. Again, no consistent correlations emerge and it is evident that factors other than smoking have played a dominant part in determining recent changes in the sex ratio of mortality in all age groups from 35-39 to 80-84 years. Among these 'other factors' are birth cohort effects that can be attributed, in part, to birth cohort changes in the sex ratio of mortality from bronchitis and emphysema." (EXCERPT)
Interaction between macro-economic activities and demographic changes in selected developing countries.
Leicester, England, University of Leicester, Department of Economics, 1987 Oct. 26 p. (Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 66)The author analyzes the relationship between population and economic development in developing countries using a macro-level model and short-term time-series data. The variables considered are consumption expenditure, investment expenditure, national income, and population; the countries examined are India, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic, with the United Kingdom as a control. The time period covered is 1964-1980. The results show little support for Malthusian theory and only partial support for alternative theories asserting that population growth is associated with technological progress.
Ann Arbor, Michigan, University Microfilms International, 1986. 209 p.This research investigates the effects of household age-sex composition on the labor supply of women in [a developing country] setting. It is based on a new approach of modelling the economic consequences of variation in the individual and family life cycle developed by Lee (1983). It is posited that each person is capable of producing four types of effects: (1) generate demand for consumer goods...(2) supply time to market activity...(3) create demand for home production...and (4) supply time to housework....These per capita effects depend on the age and sex of each person and are regarded as exogenous, determined partly by biological needs and partly by socio-cultural norms....The empirical results of this research, derived from Malaysian Family Life Survey data (1976-77), have generally confirmed the usefulness of the basic approach described above. This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of California at Berkeley. (EXCERPT)
JINKOGAKU KENKYU/JOURNAL OF POPULATION STUDIES. 1987 May; (10):7-24.The author considers the impact of demographic aging in Japan on the social security system and on economic growth. It is argued that "First of all, as the cost of social security (including social services) increases remarkably at the earlier stage of ageing, the disposable (after tax) income and private consumption of the present labour force generation tend to increase at a lower growth rate than that of the GNP....Secondly if pension systems are based on terminal funding schemes, the ageing of the population increases savings (net increase of the amount of the pension funds) at the earlier stage of the ageing of the population. Thirdly, there is a time lag between the increase of social security benefits and the decrease in the personal savings ratio. The high ratio of savings and the shortage of aggregate demand as well as the high pressure for export in...recent Japan can partly be attributed to the above factors." Possible future economic scenarios as demographic ageing in Japan proceeds are described, and policies to avert anticipated problems are outlined. (SUMMARY IN JPN) (EXCERPT)
[Unpublished] . Paper presented at the First Study Director's Meeting on Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationship for Selected ESCAP Countries, 29 October-2 November 1984, Bangkok, Thailand. 17 p.The author examines in detail the criteria for selecting an economic-demographic model for use in a particular situation. 2 general principles of model selection are that 1) the model must provide insights that are not obtainable by analytical methods and 2) models should avoid unnecessary detail. The author prefers models that are 1) single rather than multi-sectoral, 2) "general equilibrium" rather than specific in focus, 3) either long or medium term in time span but not both, and 4) Social Accounting Matrix-oriented for their output. Model closure is the central issue of model selection. The choice of closure profoundly affects the main focus of model output as shown by 4 examples: 1) the neoclassical closure of forced investment, 2) the Kaldorian closure of forced profits, 3) the Johansen closure of forced consumption, and 4) the Keynesian closure of forced unemployment. The examples of closure types illustrate that the choice of closure directly affects the result--income distribution in the example given. Existing economic-demographic models often neglect 1) the linkage between technological and demographic change, 2) population effects on aggregate savings behavior, and 3) links between family size and labor force participation rates by sex.
[Unpublished] .  p.This worldwide review of smoking trends and of efforts to reduce smoking is based on information obtained from American embassy officials, government officials of specific countries, and published sources. It was prepared by the Office on Smoking and Health of the US Public Health Service for presentation at the 4th World Conference on Smoking and Health, convened in Stockholm in 1979. This review updates the information which was included in a similar review conducted in 1973. A brief regional summary of smoking trends and a more detailed summary of smoking trends in each of 36 countries is provided. The country summaries contain information, whenever available, on smoking trends, antismoking efforts, tobacco production, nicotine and tar levels, and smoking and cigarette advertising restrictions. In many developed countries, antismoking campaigns and the imposition of restrictions on smoking in public places and on tobacco advertising has led to a decline in smoking, even among teenagers. In most countries the decline among males was sharper than among females. The Scandinavian countries, in particular, waged intensive antismoking campaigns, and their efforts have had a marked impact on the public's smoking habits. In Sweden the goal is to create a smoke free environment within 25 years, and an intensive effort is being made to educate the country's youth about the negative consequences of smoking. As a result of these efforts, the percent of 16 years old Swedes who smoke declined between 1971-77 from 41%-25% among boys and from 47%-40% among girls. In the European region, the proportion of males who smoke is declining; however, more than 1/2 of the male population continues to smoke and smoking is increasing among teenagers and women in several European countries. In Asia as a whole, 40% of the male population smokes, and in some countries, e.g., Japan and the Philippines, the proportion of males who smoke reaches 70%. The Chinese are probably the heaviest smokers in the world. China is also the world's largest producer of cigarettes. In 1977, the Chinese manufactured 775 billion cigarettes while the US, the 2nd largest producer of cigarettes, produced 666 billion. In Africa, data on smoking is scarce. Available information suggest that the proportion of smokers in the population is probably similar to that in more developed regions of the world, but that per capita comsumption is much lower in Africa than in other areas simply because people cannot afford to purchase many cigarettes. As income in these countries increases, smoking will probably increase. Most African countries have made no effort to combat smoking. In Latin America as a whole, 18% of the female population and 45% of the male population smokes. In these countries smoking is more common among blue collar workers and less educated individuals than among other occupational groups and among more educated persons.
Washington, D.C., Environmental Fund, . 12 p. (Monograph series)Add to my documents.
The impact of family size and composition on household demand for consumption goods, saving, and leisure: a study of farm households in India.
[Unpublished] 1981. Paper presented at the Population Association of America Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., Mar. 26-28, 1981. 27 p.Add to my documents.
[Unpublished] 1980. Paper presented at the Population Association of America Annual Meeting, Denver, Colo., Apr. 10-12, 1980. 39 p.Add to my documents.
Honolulu, Ha., East-West Population Institute, 1981. iii, 48 p. (Working papers: a prepublication series reporting on research in progress, no. 4.)Add to my documents.
Research in Population Economics. 1984; 5:29-50.A model of life cycle fertility is developed using the language and framework of optimal control theory. The chief characteristic of children that distinguishes them from other consumer durables is, in the language of the optimal growth theory, the "irreversibility of investment." As the good does not depreciate in the ordinary sense, the stock must be monotonically nondecreasing over time. The optimal profile of fertility is, for this reason, characterized by the same type of "bang-bang" behavior found in many optimal growth problems. Yet, the fertility decision is complicated considerably by several other factors. Chief among these is the intrinsic relation to the labor-supply decision, for having children implies inevitable constraints on the mother's or father's time. Thus, optimal labor-supply decisions also must be considered. The model is developed in stages, proceeding from very simple to the more complex models. 1 section introduces the impact of fertility on the future demands for home time. It is shown that optimal fertility profiles follow turnpike paths similar to those in the growth-theory literature. A subsequent section introduces labor-supply and human-captial considerations. As the models become more complex, solutions become harder to derive and are often only outlined. The analysis provides some theoretical basis for expecting certain shapes of the life-cycle profiles of fertility, labor supply, and wages. Fertility profiles may be of 2 shapes--one beginning at a high rate, falling to a lower rate, then to zero; and one beginning at zero, rising to a moderate rate, then falling back down to zero. Labor supply profiles can be of a number of different shapes, but the impact of childbearing is to lower hours worked during the early childrearing period. As the children mature, hours worked rise (or at least fall more slowly) as home time responsibilities lessen, although the level to which they rise will probably be lower than before the 1st birth. Log-wage profiles rise during the period before the 1st birth, then either fall or rise more slowly during the early years of childbearing, and then rise again as the children mature. These shapes have been inferred from a control-theory model that is quite complex and which could use considerably more delineation than has been achieved here. Closed-form solutions to the model have not been obtained, nor have any formal comparative dynamics been performed. As the model stands it is too complex to be empirically implemented. Such implementation would be desirable.
In: Women: a developmental perspective. Edited by Phyllis W. Berman and Estelle R. Ramey. Washington, D.C., U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services, 1982. 207-219.Add to my documents.
Bangkok, Thailand, National Institute of Development Administration, 1982. x, 138 p.Add to my documents.