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  1. 1

    The demand for non-relative child care among preschoolers: a double-hurdle approach.

    Joesch JM; Hiedemann BG

    Seattle, Washington, University of Washington, Seattle Population Research Center, 1997 Dec. [49] p. (Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper No. 98-4)

    Survey data indicate that many parents do not use non-parental care for their young children, even when both parents work. Previous studies of the demand for child care assumed that all parents respond to financial incentives. Since non-consumption may be the result of social, psychological or ethical considerations and unconnected with price and income levels, this assumption may not be appropriate. To assess the sensitivity of child care demand estimates to assumptions about reasons for non-consumption, we estimate the demand for non-relative care for preschoolers with double-hurdle, tobit and dominance models. The results suggest that both financial and non-financial considerations lead to zero child care consumption, that the decision to use any care differs from the decision of how many hours of care to use and that estimates vary by the child's age. (author's)
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  2. 2

    Smoothing primary exporters' price risks: bonds, futures, options and insurance.

    Kletzer KM; Newbery DM; Wright BD

    New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1991 Oct. 52 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 647)

    The costs of primary commodity price instability are reviewed, and can be significant. Even with full commitment on both sides and stationarity of prices, international lending leads to nonstationary consumption. One-period futures improve smoothing, and a rollover plan is quite effective under first-order serial correlation. With sovereign (exporter) risk the above instruments are infeasible. But packages of simple bonds and put options can achieve smoothing qualitatively similar to, but less efficient than, the constrained optimal state-contingent contracts for Markovian price processes. Bonds and options have the practical advantage of greater potential liquidity than more complex contracts. (author's)
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  3. 3

    Transitional dynamics in two-sector models of endogenous growth.

    Mulligan CB; Sala-i-Martin X

    New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1992 Jan. 59 p (Center Discussion Paper No. 651)

    The steady state and transitional dynamics of two-sector models of endogenous growth are analyzed in this paper. We describe necessary conditions for endogenous growth. The conditions allow us to reduce the dynamics of the solution to a system with one state-like and two control-like variables. We analyze the determinants of the long run growth rate. We use the Time-Elimination Method to analyze the transitional dynamics of the models. We find that there are transitions in real time if the point-in-time production possibility frontier is strictly concave, which occurs, for example, if the two production functions are different or if there are decreasing point-in-time returns in any of the sectors. We also show that if the models have a transition in real time, the models are globally saddle path stable. We find that the wealth or consumption smoothing effect tends to dominate the substitution or real wage effect so that the transition from relatively low levels of physical capital is carried over through high work effort rather than high savings. We develop some empirical implications. We show that the models predict conditional convergence in that, in a cross section, the growth rate is predicted to be negatively related to initial income but only after some measure of human capital is held constant. Thus, the models are consistent with existing empirical cross country evidence. (author's)
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  4. 4

    Saving and endogenous growth: a survey of theory and policy.

    Buiter WH

    New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1991 Sep. 58 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 642)

    The paper surveys and extends recent results on the effect of changes in government fiscal and financial policy and in private savings behavior on economic growth. Private saving behavior is represented by an OLG model. The supply side of the model permits endogenous growth through aggregate constant returns to an augmentable input. Private sector behavior is parameterized with the time preference rate, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the birth rate, the death rate and the rate at which labor productivity declines with age. Fiscal instruments include public consumption spending, the capital income tax rate, deficit financing and balanced-budget intergenerational redistribution (an unfunded social security retirement scheme). (author's)
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  5. 5

    The timing of government spending in a dynamic model of imperfect competition.

    Sala-i-Martin X

    New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1991 Aug. 34 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 641)

    The debate on macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy has focused on the question of whether the timing of taxes matters but has neglected the study of the relevance of the timing of public spending. This paper tries to fill that hole by presenting a model of dynamic fiscal policy where firms behave non competitively and households have finite horizons. I show that the existence of monopoly rents makes the timing of future government spending relevant. In particular I show that, contrary to the prediction of most other models of fiscal policy, an anticipated increase in public spending financed by subsequent tax increases may have expansionary effects as the positive wealth effect associated with monopoly rents outweights the negative wealth effect of anticipated higher taxes. I also show that if the public spending expansion is financed by subsequent public spending contraction, the experiment has unambiguous expansionary effects. The model presented can be thought as a microfounded story of Blanchard's Good-News-Bad-News model of public policy. (author's)
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  6. 6

    Public finance in models of economic growth.

    Barro RJ; Sala-i-Martin X

    New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, 1991 Jul. 33 p. (Center Discussion Paper No. 640)

    The recent literature on endogenous economic growth allows for effects of fiscal policy on long-term growth. If the social rate of return on investment exceeds the private return, then tax policies that encourage investment can raise the growth rate and levels of utility. An excess of the social return over the private return can reflect learning-by-doing with spillover effects, the financing of government consumption purchases with an income tax, and monopoly pricing of new types of capital goods. Tax incentives for investment are not called for if the private rate of return on investment equals the social return. This situation applies in growth models if the accumulation of a broad concept of capital does not entail diminishing returns, or if technological progress appears as an expanding variety of consumer products. In growth models that incorporate public services, the optimal tax policy hinges on the characteristics of the services. If the public services are publicly-provided private goods, which are rival and excludable, or publicly-provided public goods, which are non-rival and non- excludable, the lump-sum taxation is superior to income taxation. Many types of public goods are subject to congestion, and are therefore rival but to some extent non-excludable. In these cases, income taxation works approximately as a user fee and can therefore be superior to lump-sum taxation. In particular, the incentives for investment and growth are too high if taxes are lump sum. We argue that the congestion model applies to a wide array of public expenditures, including transportation facilities, public utilities, courts, and possibly national defense and police. (author's)
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  7. 7

    Impact of HIV / AIDS on saving behaviour in South Africa. Draft.

    Freire S

    [Unpublished] 2002 Jun 7. 18 p.

    The models measuring the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS are heterogeneous : each one relies on a specific theoretical background. Nevertheless, there are at least, three main common limits to those approaches : the authors concentrate on the impact on the labour market ; they neglect the potential implications on the capital market ; and they do not model some essential microeconomic impacts such as the change in the agents' economic behaviour. More specifically, the analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDs on savings takes into account direct costs such as health expenditures, seldom indirect costs like the anticipation of funeral costs and they do not model di¤ered indirect costs. The paper proposes an analysis of this last kind of implications through the impact of the epidemic on the saving behaviour. This paper focuses on the uncertainty of life expectancy and is based on two frameworks: the Galí (1990) model which considers the life cycle theory with a ...nite horizon at the aggregate level and the Moresi (1999) model which specifies a peculiar consumption utility function through uncertain lifetime. The calibaration and simulations of our model reveal a significant drop in future saving rate in South Africa under the hypothesis of a virus evolution similar to the one given by the UN Population Division : the saving rate in 2015, under those hypothesis, should be at least 5 percentage points inferior to the estimated saving rate that would then prevail in the absence of the epidemic. (author's)
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  8. 8

    Population growth, dependency, and consumption.

    Weil DN

    AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW. 1999 May; 89(2):251-5.

    This paper examines how population growth affects the average level of utility, particularly, the consumption per capita. It also focuses on the effects of population growth on the ratio of dependent consumers to working-age adults. The model employed in this paper has three demographic groups: working-age adults, who produce and consume, and the young and elderly, who only consume. This study concluded that the transition to lower population growth requires a long period of reduced dependency in which society benefits from lower spending on children while it has yet to pay for higher old-age dependency. The dependency level after 30 years is not significantly different from that which would exist in an optimal stable population. Any rise in fertility that would decrease old-age dependency in the long run would require a lengthy period of higher-than-steady-state dependency.
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  9. 9

    Towards viable drinking water services.

    Hukka JJ; Katko TS

    NATURAL RESOURCES FORUM. 1997; 21(3):161-7.

    This article offers a framework for developing viable drinking water services and institutional development in developing countries. The framework evolved from the authors' research and field experience in transition and developing economies. Viability is related to operative technology, appropriate organizations, and adequate cost recovery within the context of water resources, human and economic resources, sociocultural conditions, and other constraints. The ability of institutions to solve the problems of coordination and production depends upon player motivation, the complexity of the environment, and the ability of the players to control the environment. Third party enforcement of agreements are essential to reduce gains from opportunism, cheating, and shirking. Empirical research finds that per capita water production costs are 4 times higher in centralized systems and lowest in decentralized systems with coordination from a central party. Three-tiered systems of governments, regulators, and service providers are recommended. Management options must be consumer driven. The worst case scenario is consumer's reliance on vending and reselling with no alternative source of supply. Policies should have a strong focus on institutional reforms in the water sector, the development of a consumer driven water sector, facilitation of appropriate private-public partnerships, sound management of existing capital assets, a system for building viability into national strategies for the water sector, and financially self-sufficient and consumer responsible water supply organizations.
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  10. 10

    Population, consumption and resources: ethical issues.

    Dasgupta P

    ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 1998 Feb-Mar; 24(2-3):139-52.

    This article offers several models that test concepts of optimum population and consumption: classical or utilitarian models, contractual models, and generation-relative ethical models. This article is based on a lecture presented in August 1995, at a conference organized by the Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study in the Social Sciences. It is posited that classical utilitarianism casts the optimum population and consumption problem as a Genesis Problem. The authors argue that the Genesis problem is the wrong problem to study because there are no actual people. The Genesis problem asks how many people there ought to be ideally at what living standards. The unborn are not a class of people, just as mud on a river bank is not a mud hut. Actual persons and potential persons are categorically different. Actual persons have a claim that potential persons do not have. An overall ethical ordering over alternatives can only be conceived for each generation of actual people. The ethical point of view inevitably changes over time. For example, a generation in the first period consumes what they are given to consume by the older generation. In the second period, the younger generation is now the older generation who decide how many children to have and how to share nonstorable, all purpose consumption goods among themselves and future generations. Procreation is a means of making one's values durable. Human development is unfair. Those who live later benefit from the labor of their predecessors without paying the same price. Procreation and ecological preservation are a matter of ethics.
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  11. 11

    Taking population out of the equation: reformulating I=PAT.

    Hynes HP

    North Amherst, Massachusetts, Institute on Women and Technology, 1993. iv, 59 p.

    This book presents a reformulation of the population/environment formula known as I = PAT, where "I" is human impact on the environment, "P" is population size, "A" is goods consumed per capita, and "T" is pollution generated by technology per good consumed. The introduction describes the formula and its attractiveness. The next section explains that the formula is so entrenched that critics and advocates debate its merits from a position within its argot. Feminists, on the other hand, would reform I = PAT to add key structural factors that reflect elements of social and environmental justice. The book continues by critically analyzing each factor in the equation and then offering corrections that 1) separate survival consumption from luxury consumption; 2) introduce a factor to account for military pollution; 3) introduce the element of environmental conservation; and 4) account for human agency. The new formula would be I = C - PAT, where "I" is human impact, "C" is conservation, "P" is patriarchy, "A" is consumption shaped by economic realities, and "T" is environmentally injurious technology. It is recommended 1) that women's health and environmental organizations replace the population framework with the feminist framework, introduce agency, educate women and men, and redirect contraceptive technology and research and 2) that environmental organizations teach ecological literacy, examine consumption, and support grassroots and urban environmentalism.
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  12. 12
    Peer Reviewed

    The effects of gender control on fertility and children's consumption.

    Davies JB; Zhang J


    The authors analyzed the effects of preference for children of a particular gender upon fertility and children's welfare, with and without sex selection or gender control. The impacts upon investments in children's human capital, bequests, and fertility are studied in a model based upon parental altruism. Both pure sex preference, a feature of the parental utility function, and indirect preference resulting from price effects are modelled in this paper. When there is no gender control, the impact of pure sex preference is seen in smaller consumption for daughters than for sons. However, when gender control is employed, sex preference increases the sex ratio and it is possible that sisters may on, average, consume no less than their more numerous brothers. Parents who practice gender control have larger families than if sex selection techniques were unavailable. The effect is magnified if sons' earnings opportunities are better than daughters.
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  13. 13
    Peer Reviewed

    Endogenous fertility in a model with non-dynastic parental altruism.

    Kollmann R


    An economic model of fertility choice is presented and discussed in which the utility level of agents depends upon their consumption, the number of children they have, and upon the consumption of their children. Parents are altruistic toward their children, but in a more limited sense than in the fertility model presented by Becker and Barro in 1988, in which the utility of parents depends upon the utility of their children and therefore indirectly upon the consumption and fertility decisions made by all subsequent generations. The concept of a bequest equilibrium is used to solve the nondynastic model considered. The steady state birth rate was found to be lower in the nondynastic model than in the Becker-Barro model. However, the key qualitative predictions concerning the dynamic behavior of fertility are surprisingly similar in both models.
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  14. 14

    Intergenerational resource flows in Cote d'Ivoire: empirical analysis of aggregate flows.

    Stecklov G

    POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1997 Sep; 23(3):525-53.

    Application of new intergenerational resource flow models to data from the Ivory Coast 1) reveals that wealth flows from older to younger generations in this high-fertility setting, 2) indicates how wealth is accumulated by individuals, and 3) exposes the complementary role of private and public transfers in the redistribution of resources between different age groups. The article begins with a review of the theory and evidence covering intergenerational transfers. The next section notes that data for the present study were gathered from the World Bank's 1986 Living Standards Measurement Study of the Ivory Coast and discusses 1) reasons for the fact that per capita consumption is about 20% greater than per capita labor income, 2) the assumptions used to allow individual-level consumption and labor earning measures to be derived from the household-level data, and 3) how individual labor earning estimates were derived. The third section provides the analysis of the consumption and labor income profiles, and section 4 explains the derivation of per capita wealth and per capita transfers. Section 5 deals with the role of population growth, and the sixth section covers the intergenerational flows of public-sector resources through a look at the composition of the public sector in the Ivory Coast, government expenditures, government revenues, and the combination of family and public-sector flows. It is concluded that application of this new framework has yielded important findings including the fact that wealth flows downward in this high-fertility setting. Public-sector flows were also strongly downward and were dominated by education expenses. The average citizen in the Ivory Coast experiences negative life-cycle wealth until nearly age 50. High fertility may continue despite the high cost of children as long as children remain the best source of old-age support for parents.
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  15. 15
    Peer Reviewed

    Population in context: a typology of environmental driving forces.

    Hempel LC

    POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT. 1997 May; 18(5):439-61.

    This paper presents a typology and qualitative model of causation for use in assessing the relative contributions of population growth to problems of pollution, lost biodiversity, and natural resource depletion. Population growth is placed "in context" as one of eight key driving forces that shape environmental quality today. It is treated primarily as an impact "amplifier", along with technology. Root causes are traced to paradigmatic beliefs--especially anthropocentrism and contempocentrism--which find expression in unsustainable consumption patterns and designs of political economy. (author's)
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  16. 16

    Energy consumption: whether a function of population or gross domestic product: (a country groupwise econometric study).

    Bajpai AD

    In: Population problem and development, edited by Tapan Kumar Shandilya. New Delhi, India, Deep and Deep Publications, 1995. 82-98.

    This chapter on India's population problem is devoted to an empirical test of several hypotheses about the relationship between energy consumption, population (POP), and gross domestic product (GDP) among groups of countries and in the world. The 110 countries are grouped on the basis of their being high (HIEG), medium (MIEG), or low (LIEG) income economy countries. Energy consumption is highly concentrated in 39 HIEG, and that POP and GDP are efficient determinants of total energy consumption (TEC). Data are obtained from the 1992 World Demographic Report. TEC is calculated on the basis of total national population and per capita consumption of commercial energy in million kg of oil equivalents (MKOE) in each country. POP and GDP were not significantly correlated with each other. The sample of 110 countries is equivalent to 88% of total world countries, 88.3% of total world population, and 86.57% of total world GDP. The average population was 80.24 million persons in LIEG, 19.68 million persons in MIEG, and 33.06 million persons in HIEG. Average GDP was 25,875.16 million dollars in LIEG, 43,898.0 million dollars in MIEG, and 6,740,880.7 million dollars in HIEG. The average total consumption of energy was 28,445.93 MKOE in LIEG; 38,847.33 MKOE in MIEG, and 341,213.3 MKOE in HIEG. Comparative findings indicate negative relationships between POP and GDP, POP and TEC, and a positive relationship between GDP and TEC. POP determined TEC in LIEG. GDP determined TEC in MIEG and HIEG. The propensity to consume energy was higher in LIEG. The multiple logistic model reveals that GDP was a more efficient determinant of TEC. A marginal increase in POP increased TEC by 9229 in HIEG, which was 10 times higher than in MIEG and 20 times higher than in LIEG. Rich countries should carry greater responsibility for environmental conservation.
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  17. 17

    Population growth and air quality in California.

    Cramer JC

    [Unpublished] 1996. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, Louisiana, May 9-11, 1996. [2], 30, [2] p.

    This study analyzes the relationship between the air quality for regulated pollutants and population growth among 56 counties in California during 1980 and 1990. The five pollutants include reactive organic gases (ROG), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), oxides of sulfur (SOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter with a diameter under 10 microns (PM10). The empirical model, which is based on Ehrlich's IPAT formula (impact or pollutant equals population times affluence or consumption times technology or pollution), is tested in a stochastic model with logarithms of specific variables (for example, the natural logarithm of the ratio of emissions in 1990 to the emissions in 1980). The model is further modified by disaggregating by point of source and by pollutant. The model is tested by specifying population as individuals and as households. Data are obtained from the California Air Resources Board and the US censuses of 1980 and 1990. Findings indicate that the three factors accounted for over 96% of the variation in ROG trends across the 56 counties. All three factors were significant and positive. Regression coefficients indicate that a doubling of population did not yield a doubling of pollution. A doubling of population would yield only about a 60% increase in ROG emissions. A doubling of affluence (income per capita) would increase ROG emissions by 24%. The affluence variable was determined to be misspecified or insignificant. Population growth had a significant and positive effect on emissions from residential and commercial sources, from solvent use, and from off-road vehicles. Population growth did not have a significant effect on emissions from waste burning and off-road public transport. Alternative specifications of population did not improve the basic model, except for small particulate matter from off-road mobile equipment. Findings suggest that economic restructuring can have as great an impact on emissions as population growth or affluence. Data analysis is imprecise due to the lack of data for automobile emissions and industrial processes.
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  18. 18

    Prospects for sustainable development: the significance of population growth.

    King J; Slesser M

    POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT. 1995 Jul; 16(6):487-505.

    The recent world model GlobEcco was used to explore the implications of alternative population growth rates for both the industrialized and developing regions of the world. The ECCO method (Evolution of Capital Creation Options) is a simulation model of the entire economy, taking into account population, economic growth potential, environmental requirements, and investments. The population in 1985 was divided between the developed world, with 1.227 billion people, and the developing countries, with 3.617 billion people. Each was examined according to the state of the total economy, food consumption, birth and death rates, and these were related to a physical Material Standard of Living factor (MSOL). The policy of increasing aid to the Third World to 0.7% of the First World's gross domestic product (GDP) from 1992 on improves living standards somewhat, but the Third World continues to lag behind the developed world. The policy of increasing foreign loans from 1% to 5% of the industrialized world's GDP initially reduces MSOL in the First World, but eventually the net flow of wealth runs in the First World's favor, with a debt services ratio exceeding 100%. The policy of reducing consumption in the First World by 5%, while aid is increased to 1.4% of GDP, improves the Third World's circumstances, however, by 2012 the Third World's MSOL is still only 8.2% of the First World's. If the Third World reneges on its international debts in 2008, the debt servicing ratio drops to 0, and the wealth released expands the Third World's economies. The policy of intensifying family planning assistance improves the standard of living in both worlds, however, there is an incipient scarcity of energy by 2020. The policy of intensifying aid with the ECCO Demographic Module shows that Third World MSOL rises to 13.4% of the First World's, however, cumulative resources use increases during the 1st quarter of the 21st century to the point of penury.
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  19. 19

    Population growth and the food supply: conflicting perspectives.

    Bongaarts J

    New York, New York, Population Council, 1993. 37 p. (Research Division Working Papers No. 53)

    This review aims to expose the diversity of existing views on the consequences of rapid population growth for food production and to summarize the opposing views on the state of natural resources. A deteriorating environment is viewed as inevitable and the developing world improves its standard of living and population increases. Population is expected to reach 10 billion people by 2050. Food consumption varies by quantity, quality, and country. The developed world has a diet rich enough in calories and animal products to impair health, while Africans have the poorest diets and Latin Americans the best in the developing world. The developing world's 4.1 billion population in 1990 consumes an average of 4000 gross and 2500 net calories of food crops per capita every day. Production needs in 1990 are 0.7 billion hectares of harvested land with an average crop yield of 2.2 tons of grain per hectare (tge/ha), or its equivalent in nongrain crops. Net imports are 5% of the food supply in the developing world. The needs for 2050 and a population of 8.7 billion can be estimated based on the following scenarios: 1) no change in diets, 2) a 50% increase in gross per capita intake to 6000 calories per day, or 3) a 150% increase as represented in diets in developed countries. Production needs for option one would be an increase from 2.2 tge/ha to 4.7 tge/ha in 2050. Option two would require 14 tge/ha, which is an impossibility considering the current US cereal production is 4.2 tge/ha. Harvested land would need to increase by 50% by 2050 and yields would have to increase to 3.1 tge/ha for option one, 5.2 tge/ha for option two, and 9.3 tge/ha for option three. Global weather conditions are likely to change due to greenhouse emissions and global warming, which will both positively and negatively affect agriculture. The question remains as to how to apply new technology for growth in agriculture for increased production and acceptable environmental costs. Progress is unlikely to be uniform, and the poor will suffer the most. Three hunger scenarios are possible: poor countries with no reserves of land or water and reliance on food aid, ample resources and unequal distribution and ineffective policies, and political instability and civil strife.
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  20. 20
    Peer Reviewed

    Fertility choice and economic growth: theory and evidence.

    Wang P; Yip CK; Scotese CA

    REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS. 1994 May; 76(2):255-66.

    This proposed theoretical model is based on new models of Barro and Becker and Becker, Murphy, and Tamura and explains the interaction of family decisions about fertility and the macroeconomy in a growth situation. The proposed model captures a dynamic interaction between labor/leisure and fertility choice and a structural fertility preference shock. Endogenous factor are consumption, labor/leisure, and fertility, while exogenous factors are production and utility parameters. The aim was to develop a general equilibrium model which expresses short- and long-term dynamics, to test the impact of economic disturbances on fertility, and to explain the US baby boom and subsequent fertility patterns. Savings in capital accumulation and in labor supply were expected to have ambiguous effects, while improved productivity was expected to increase steady state consumption. The methodology, a structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model, was developed by Blanchard and Quah and Ihmed, Ickes, Wang, and Yoo. Structural impacts include disturbances in employment, fertility (theoretical preference shift), and output. Long-term restrictions are based on theory, rather than on ad hoc causal orderings (Sims method) or current responses (Bernanke method). The structural VAR model is estimated using the logged differences of labor, fertility rate, and output. The empirical results are based on analysis of US data (1949-88) on fertility, weekly hours worked, and real gross national product. The model revealed that fertility choice should not be considered exogenous to the labor market or to economic growth. Variance of the forecast error for the fertility rate was significantly explained by employment shocks; the effect was reduced fertility and increased labor force effort. Output responses to fertility and technology shocks were similar to those reported by Shapiro and Watson. In the variance decomposition analysis, output shocks explained about 33% of output variance. Fertility shocks explained about 33% of labor growth and 25% of output growth after the first year. With a lag of one year, about 37% of fertility variance was explained by employment shocks. Concluding remarks underscore the importance of knowing which shock initiated the motion and causal ordering.
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  21. 21

    Post-communal land ownership: poverty and political philosophy.

    Richards D

    In: Commons without tragedy. Protecting the environment from overpopulation -- a new approach, edited by Robert V. Andelson. London, England, Shepheard-Walwyn, 1991. 83-108.

    Absolute private ownership of land has been traced to ancient Near East civilizations, including the Canaanites, the Phoenicians, and later to Carthage whose land laws were adopted later by the Romans. Eventually the modern Western world revived land ownership laws and applied them to the atmosphere, ocean beds, and Antarctica through pollution permits and mining licenses. The socially unjust and inefficient system of land tenure of the West is the source of the population concerns of the late 20th century, the abuse of the environment, and crises in terms of lopsided distribution of income and wealth. Private land ownership increased productivity, but it overexploited the environment and was not the sole curse to achieve progress. Some demographers maintain that poverty causes population problems by inducing high birth rates. There is also the hypothesis that large-scale poverty is the result of private land ownership. The concept of land rent and decisions regarding its distribution is detailed in the context of the current debate on environmental policy. The World Bank showed that the developing world, with 80% of the global population, is responsible for only 7% of carbon dioxide emissions. The links between land tenure, demographic problems, and other environmental problems are further examined. The political branch of the rural real estate business hastened the demise of the family farm in the United States. Latin America has the longest history of private land ownership, with the results of land left idle and massive poverty despite higher productivity on small plots. The South is repeating the same ruinous and wasteful tactics of devalued land ownership as the North as done (including the USSR prior to perestroika). The western model of economic growth has increased poverty on the Indian subcontinent owing to avoidance of the land tax. The African situation is similar with increasing numbers of people being crammed into inferior land.
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  22. 22

    Guglielmo Ferrero: an historian's view of population.

    Ferrero G


    Guglielmo Ferrero's article An Historian's View of Population appeared in the August 17, 1922, issue of the Manchester Guardian Commercial. Demographic modernity is often described in terms of the substitution of quality of human capital for quantity; in the perception of Ferrero, the distinctive trend has rather been from qualitative to quantitative civilization, a degradation attributable to increased demographic scale and the gross ideology of traders. It is only within the last 2 centuries that Europe has become thickly populated. Population was always very sparse, and decreased more easily than it increased as confirmed by the actual method of growth and decay of the ancient civilizations. The Middle Ages were more fecund than antiquity; Christianity made a sacrament of matrimony, forbidding infanticide, and proscribing prostitution. It is certain that the tendency to increase has gained strength since the French Revolution and in the 19th century. The civilizations that existed before the French Revolution were qualitative. But in the 19th century, partly in consequence of the increase of population, European civilization becomes quantitative. People compete in the frenzied manufacture of things at the lowest price, indifferent to their poor quality. The quality of goods is sacrificed to quantity. Consumption increases with production. In contrast to the civilization that preceded it, modern civilization has need of large numbers of men. The increase of population is the necessary condition for all other growth: in industry, in trade, in savings, in the revenue and expenditure of the state, and in the army. A great political anarchy is raging in the midst of a still ruling political order. So the intellectual and moral disorder of the times, if they continue to increase with the increase of population and of wealth, might in the end generate political anarchy and industrial disorganization.
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  23. 23

    Demographic dynamics and consumption planning.

    Ketkar KW; Ketkar SL

    In: Population and development planning. Proceedings of the United Nations International Symposium on Population and Development Planning, Riga, Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic, 4-8 December 1989, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Development. New York, New York, United Nations, 1993. 168-79. (ST/ESA/SER.R/116)

    The objective was to forge a link between demographic dynamics and the structure of consumption for the United States economy by taking into account the effect of changes in 4 demographic variables: 1) the region of location of the household; 2) its size; 3) its age; and 4) the employment status of the woman. Changes in these demographic characteristics of the households are projected by using the log-linear model. The expenditure functions are estimated for various items of personal consumption expenditures. The cross sectional data from the 1972-1973 Consumer Expenditure Survey conducted by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1980) are used for this purpose. Nearly 20,000 households participated in this survey, during either the 1972 or 1973 calendar years, relating current expenditures on 1651 distinct items of consumption that were matched with 80 categories of personal consumption in the national income accounts. For the United States economy, it is expected that the share of household expenditures will shift away from basic necessities of life, such as food at home and shelter, in favor of items that improve the quality of life or save time, such as restaurant meals and recreation. There will be an increased demand for services, leisure goods and production in favor of non-durable consumer goods. The output of the agricultural sector and of durable consumer and intermediate goods is projected to suffer a decline in the United States. Thus, the methodology proposed in this paper can be used to build a link between demographic dynamics and the structure of production of an economy through changes in the pattern of consumption expenditures.
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  24. 24

    Sustaining life on the earth.

    Kates RW

    SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN. 1994 Oct; 114-22.

    At the time of the toolmaking revolution, around 1 million years ago, human numbers rose to 5 million. As humans invented agriculture and animal husbandry, the population grew to about 500 million. In 1994 the number was 5.6 billion; it may double or triple before leveling off again 300 years after the industrial revolution began. If the transition to a warmer, more crowded, more diverse world can be managed, there may be promise of an environmentally sustainable future. The reconstructed population series for 4 ancient regions, the Nile Valley (6000 years), the Tigris-Euphrates lowlands of Iraq (6000 years), the basin of Mexico (3000 years), and the central Maya lowlands of Mexico and Guatemala (2200 years) all show waves in which population doubled over the previous base and then fell by at least half. This raises questions about human life on the earth: perhaps even regions that are world leaders can collapse in modern times. Among likely threats are 3 areas of concern: 1) pollutants: acid rain in the atmosphere, heavy metals in the soils, and chemicals in the groundwater, 2) global atmospheric dangers of nuclear fallout, stratospheric ozone depletion, and climatic warming, 3) deforestation, desertification, and species extinction. 10 billion people would require a 4-fold increase in agricultural production, a 6-fold rise in energy use and an 8-fold increase in the global economy. 2.1 births per woman is required for zero-population growth, while the current birth rate is 3.2. In developing countries after World War II, the life expectancy at birth was 40 years, now it has increased to 65 years. The slowing of the rate of population growth everywhere is encouraging for sustaining life on the earth, which requires cohabitation with the natural world; limits to human activity; and wider distribution of the benefits of human activity.
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  25. 25

    Network models of the diffusion of innovations.

    Valente TW

    Cresskill, New Jersey, Hampton Press, 1995. xv, 171 p. (Quantitative Methods in Communication)

    Innovations, such as ideas, products, or opinions, spread or diffuse through society at a rate and specificity which can be understood by analyzing the pattern of communication (the social network) which exists between individuals in a social system. Analysis of such network models of diffusion reveals tipping points in the process that are studied through threshold models, which focus on individuals, and critical mass models, which describe social systems. Together, these models provide a comprehensive picture of how social systems determine social change. This book opens with an introduction which reviews the theory of diffusion of innovations, network analysis, and the three diffusion datasets used as examples. The concept of "contagion," or the specific process of innovation diffusion (also known as the "diffusion effect"), is defined. Chapter 2 provides a framework for understanding threshold and critical mass models by describing prior research on their effects. Chapter 3 describes relational diffusion network models, which maintain that individuals adopt innovations based on their direct relations with others in their social system. Structural diffusion network models, presented in chapter 4, hold that individuals adopt innovations based on their position in their social system, regardless of their direct ties to others. Chapter 5 covers threshold models of diffusion and introduces the notion that individuals may be innovative with respect to their personal network as well as to the social system. Chapter 6 deals with critical mass models of diffusion and points out that competing definitions of critical mass and a lack of clarity in critical mass research has hindered the theoretical development of these models. This chapter tests alternative models and shows how centralness and radiality of personal networks contribute to the critical mass. Chapter 7 develops a network threshold model which can be conceptualized in both relational and structural terms and which allows individual innovativeness to be measured relative to an individual's personal network or relative to a whole social system. This model can be used to predict diffusion, identify opinion leaders, understand the two-step flow model of opinion formulation, and determine the critical mass. Chapter 8 discusses other possible methods which are useful for understanding network models. The final chapter discusses applications, contrasts network thresholds with the classic diffusion model, and concludes that network characteristics are associated with adoption behavior at both the individual and the system level of analysis. The shortcomings of the modeling systems presented in this book and the limitations of the research are discussed, and indications for future research are given.
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