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Washington, D.C., World Resources Institute [WRI], 1987 Sep. , vi, 119 p.A team of members from Brazil, Sweden, India, and the US have conducted an energy analysis which focused on energy demand rather than energy supply. This end-use analysis is entitled the End Use Global Energy Project (EUGEP). The EUGEP global energy scenario for 2020 indicates a per capita energy use in industrialized countries of almost 50% lower than what it was in 1980 (3.2 kilowatts/person vs. 6.3 kilowatts/person). The scenario assumes a widespread shift from the inefficient noncommercial fuels to modern energy technologies in high efficiency applications. Other assumptions include limited growth in nuclear power, a balanced energy supply mix, and limits in use of fossil fuels especially coal. It finds that a mean 1.3 kilowatts/person could support the living standard present in western Europe in the late 1980s. The EUGEP scenario depicts a society in which global energy use is only 10% higher than it was in the late 1980s despite an increase in the population to 7 billions people compared with an increase of over 100% for conventional projections. This energy analysis serves only as an illustration of the technically possible. It communicates to policymakers that they have a choice. The analysts present case studies from Sweden and the US. They also address global energy and use as it applies in developing countries and market-oriented countries.
TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY. 1987; 9(3-4):261-73.Technology as a factor influencing fertility is discussed. The author argues that "technological change affects the demand for children, and hence for fertility regulation, both by directly altering the expected benefits and costs of children to parents and by influencing the cultural and social structural underpinnings of that economic calculus. Routes of that influence include the demand for education generated by competition for modern sector employment, the consumerist values and lifestyles conveyed by communications media, and the erosion of community and kin pressures on individual behavior in a more mobile and more commercialized society. Such forces for behavioral change, it is argued, are more powerful factors in fertility decline than either the 'social technology' of contraceptive service delivery (family planning programs) or improvements in the technology of contraception itself." (EXCERPT)
Interaction between macro-economic activities and demographic changes in selected developing countries.
Leicester, England, University of Leicester, Department of Economics, 1987 Oct. 26 p. (Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 66)The author analyzes the relationship between population and economic development in developing countries using a macro-level model and short-term time-series data. The variables considered are consumption expenditure, investment expenditure, national income, and population; the countries examined are India, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic, with the United Kingdom as a control. The time period covered is 1964-1980. The results show little support for Malthusian theory and only partial support for alternative theories asserting that population growth is associated with technological progress.