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    199875

    Appropriate demographic-economic models for development planning in developing countries.

    Demery D

    [Unpublished] [1984]. Paper presented at the First Study Director's Meeting on Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationship for Selected ESCAP Countries, 29 October-2 November 1984, Bangkok, Thailand. 17 p.

    The author examines in detail the criteria for selecting an economic-demographic model for use in a particular situation. 2 general principles of model selection are that 1) the model must provide insights that are not obtainable by analytical methods and 2) models should avoid unnecessary detail. The author prefers models that are 1) single rather than multi-sectoral, 2) "general equilibrium" rather than specific in focus, 3) either long or medium term in time span but not both, and 4) Social Accounting Matrix-oriented for their output. Model closure is the central issue of model selection. The choice of closure profoundly affects the main focus of model output as shown by 4 examples: 1) the neoclassical closure of forced investment, 2) the Kaldorian closure of forced profits, 3) the Johansen closure of forced consumption, and 4) the Keynesian closure of forced unemployment. The examples of closure types illustrate that the choice of closure directly affects the result--income distribution in the example given. Existing economic-demographic models often neglect 1) the linkage between technological and demographic change, 2) population effects on aggregate savings behavior, and 3) links between family size and labor force participation rates by sex.
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