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Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 2006 Dec; 21(3):7-16.Every country in the Asian and Pacific region is in the midst of a demographic transition that is producing large changes in age structure with important implications for economic growth and standards of living. In the early stages of the transition, high fertility and declining infant and child mortality produce a bulge in the population at young ages. The middle of the transition is marked by an increase in the share of the population concentrated at the working ages as large cohorts of children reach adulthood and as the relative number of children are depressed by fertility decline. At the end of the transition, the share of the older population increases. In part, this is a consequence of continued reductions in mortality rates, but of greater consequence are the low fertility rates that characterize the final stages of the demographic transition. (excerpt)
Guildford, England, Butterworths, 1989. 54 p.This report examines the trends of demographic ageing in Europe up to 2025. By that date one European in four could be aged 65 or over. With trends continuing towards the contraction of working life, severe imbalances may occur in individual life cycles, in the structure of the workforce, and in socioeconomic provision for an ageing population. The report further considers the potential impacts of these emerging imbalances on living conditions, consumption patterns, and socio-medical/health care provision for the old. Finally, a range of responses are outlined to the challenges of possible intergenerational conflict surrounding the nexus of issues related to demographic ageing.
In: Economic and social implications of population aging: proceedings of the International Symposium on Population Structure and Development, Tokyo, 10-12 September 1987. New York, New York, United Nations, 1988. 121-44. (ST/ESA/SER.R/85.)Demographic projections for the majority of the industrial countries show that the proportion of persons of working age (15-59 or 15-64) in the total population will be higher in 2000 than it was in 1980. But after the beginning of the next century, in all the industrial countries except Ireland, there will be a gradual reduction in the proportion of persons of working age. The projections show that the deterioration in the ratio of persons aged 20-59 to those ages 60 and over will be felt gradually at first, owing to the baby boom, but that it will speed up from 2005. According to the majority of experts, the aging of the active population will have the effect of restraining the structural plasticity of the economy by slowing down necessary changes and mobility between sectors, and will produce an increase in wage and non-wage costs. Aging produces a slow decline in the consumption of goods and services associated with childhood and a slow increase in the consumption of certain goods and services connected with advancing age (leisure, health care, dietary products). Demographic aging has an effect on the quality of savings, which will tend to be more cautious and directed more towards prudent investments than towards investments in the modernization of the productive apparatus, which are not immediately profitable and contain risks. With the increase in life expectancy, the age of inheritance is constantly rising. The increasingly late passing-on of legacies does not facilitate the modernization of enterprises. The majority of retirement schemes have not yet reached maturity. Many pensioners have not contributed for the period required for a full pension, especially women. Increasingly, the rich countries are finding that they have a number of economic and social problems in common. In the rich countries, there is universal concern about the structural rigidity which aging creates and exacerbates in production and about the future financial balance of the retirement systems, which are seen to be under serious threat at a time when, paradoxically, the economic, social, and health situation of old people has never been better.
[The decline in fertility in the Federal Republic of Germany and some of its economic consequences] Spadek plodnosci w Republice Federalnej Niemiec oraz niektore jego konsekwencje ekonomiczne
Studia Demograficzne. 1984; (3/77):81-99.The causes and consequences of the continued fertility decline in the Federal Republic of Germany are examined. Factors associated with this decline include the increased demand for consumption, the desire for better living conditions, increased educational costs for children, the desire of women to continue their professional careers, the increased frequency of consensual unions, and, above all, the elimination of unplanned births. Special note is made regarding the threat that decreased fertility poses to the viability of the system of retirement funds. (summary in ENG, RUS)
Bethesda, Md, United States. National Institutes of Health [NIH], 1984. x, 146 p.This monograph describes the initial version of the longterm macroeconomic demographic model of the US economy which was developed for the National Institute of Aging (NIA) to investigate the effects of demographic aging on the income level of the elderly as well as on productivity, consumption, savings, and investment. Important features of the model design included the use of large amounts of demographic information, explicit representation of the process of economic growth, the use of a general equilibrium framework, representation of the structural features of the major pension systems, and a comprehensive, integrated approach. The macroeconomic demographic model is composed of a core macroeconomic and demographic modelling system and 5 peripheral models that depict the operation and behavior of the major components of the retirement income system. The core model has 3 major parts: a population projection system, a macroeconmic growth model, and a labor market model. The population model replicates US Census Bureau population projection methodology to project total US population by age and sex for each year from 1970 through 2055. The longterm econometric forecasting model which depicts formulation of working, spending, and savings plans by households and production, investment, and employment plans by businesses, as well as projecting demand for and supply of goods and services. The labor market model depicts the demand for labor, the supply of labor measured in total annual manhours worked for each of 22 age-sex groups, and the simultaneous determination of labor and capital services input along with compensation, output, and employment. The 5 major elements of the retirement income system that are modelled are the Social Security system, the private pension system, the public employee retirement system, the Supplemental Security Income system, and the Medicare system. At the start of each simulation year, the population model forecasts the new size and composition of the population. The macroeconomic growth model and labor market model use the figures to project levels of aggregate economic activity and labor market outputs for the 22 different age-sex cohorts. These projections are inputs into the simulation of each of the 3 pension system models and 2 transfer income models. 1 chapter of the report describes in nontechnical terms each of the 3 core and 5 peripheral models while the final chapter presents the base case simulation and validation of the model from 1970 to 1979. A series of appendices present the equations of each of the 5 principal models and also discuss new analyses completed in the course of model development.
Laxenburg, Austria, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1983. viii, 57 p. (WP-83-17)Add to my documents.