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  1. 1
    Peer Reviewed

    Remembering Malthus: a preliminary argument for a significant reduction in global human numbers.

    Smail JK

    American Journal of Physical Anthropology. 2002 Jul; 118(3):292-297.

    It has become increasingly apparent over the past several decades that there is a growing tension between two seemingly irreconcilable trends. On one hand, moderate-to-conservative demographic projections indicate that global human numbers will almost certainly reach 9 billion (or more) by the mid-to-late 21st century. On the other, prudent and increasingly reliable scientific estimates suggest that the Earth's long-term sustainable carrying capacity (at what might be defined as an "adequate to comfortable" standard of living) may not be much greater than 2--3 billion. (excerpt)
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  2. 2

    The water crisis and population. [Pamphlet collection].

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO]

    [Rome, Italy], FAO, [1986]. vi, [126] p.

    The dimensions of the water crisis and its implications for the population of the world is the subject of a 4-pamphlet packet distributed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Part 1 relates legends about water and details the role of water in human history. Rapid population growth and its detrimental effects on water conservation and the environmental balance are explained. Recognition of the population growth problem is urged, with government-backed family planning programs recommended. Part 2 gives a detailed explanation of the life cycle and its dependence on soil and water. Climate, vegetation, and types of water are examined in relation to their role in the distribution of available water resources. Future water resources and demand are projected for agriculture, industry, and domestic use. The disruption of the balance between man and water and the problem of water pollution are addressed, as are deforestation, desertification, drought, and the greenhouse effect. Part 3 offers a view of inland waters and agriculture, with a history of irrigation and the role of irrigation today. Rural water, its use, sources, storage, and collection are examined in relation to work distribution, family size, and sanitation. Problems arising from unsafe water supplies, including disease, infection, and malnutrition are discussed, and examples are given of small-scale projects that have successfully addressed these problems. The final section deals with water and the future. A continuing effort at water and land conservation, as well as surface water and ground water management, is urged. Irrigation planning and supporting systems, such as terracing, fallowing, and improved cropping patterns, are presented as further management techniques. Preserving existing resources, lifting, various kinds of wells, new storage methods and purification systems, are suggested to increase domestic water conservation. Examples of water projects in Africa, Asia, and the South Pacific are presented. Finally, population management and its crucial role in future water resources allocation, conservation, and distribution, is provided.
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  3. 3

    [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession] Disminucion del crecimiento de la poblacion, distribucion de ingresos y recesion economica

    Banguero H

    Desarrollo y Sociedad. 1983 May; (11):19-44.

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be provided to 3 productive sectors: traditional agriculture, small factories producing mass consumption goods, and construction of low income housing. The strategy would promote economic growth and expansion without further deterioration of income distribution, employment, and price stability. A simulation study demonstrated the advantages of such a strategy in relation to alternative strategies.
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