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INTERNATIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS. 1986 Dec; 5(12):i-x, 1-217.To facilitate understanding of the consumer market potential of today's world, "International Demographics" clusters the world's 150 largest countries based on their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The names of the 5 clusters--The Dependents, The Seekers, The Climbers, The Ultimate Consumers, and The Rocking Chairs--help identify the kind of consumer markets the countries represent. The 150 countries included in this 1987 volume are considered potential markets and are organized by cluster. All data cited are the most current numbers available, and all population estimates are the latest projections by the Center for International Research, US Census Bureau. Population trends of the next 14 years will change existing markets, and open new markets. However, due to rapid population growth in the poorest of the world economy, the Dependent countries, only intensified efforts on the part of the countries themselves and increased assistance from the international development community can pull these countries up. The sheer size of the market in Seeker and Climber countries is sufficient to indicate increased consumer demand. Add to that increasing income, the predominance of youth, and the ongoing rural-to-urban shift, and it is clear that demand will center on consumer durables for beginning families as the large proportions of youth will center on consumer durables for beginning families as the large proportions of youth enter their prime spending years of 15-64. Construction, sanitation, power, telecommunications, and transport are expected to boom as youth add pressure to urban job markets and housing. Slowed or stagnated growth in the rapidly aging Ultimate Consumer and Rocking Chair countries tells a different story. Some Rocking Chair countries such as West Germany already are experiencing natural decrease. Market growth in the Ultimate Consumer and Rocking Chair countries is geared to the increasingly sophisticated tastes and needs of the elderly rather than to an increase in numbers. 4 demographic factors help identify market potential--the average annual population growth rate, the average number of lifetime births per woman, the status of women, and urbanization. Countries not currently considered good potential markets are growing very rapidly at an average population growth rate of 2.5% or more and will continue to do so. The status of women is low, and the urban population is concentrated in 1 city. countries with good market potential are growing more slowly, at a rate of 1.5-2.5% a year. Fertility is under control, the status of women is improving, and urbanization is spread throughout the country.
Luxembourg, STATEC, 1987 Dec. xx, 529 p.The 1987/88 Statistical Yearbook of Luxembourg contains data on a wide variety of topics organized into 23 chapters with data on economic and noneconomic topics specific to Luxembourg and a final chapter with a series of international comparisons. Each of the chapters and many of the tables and graphs contain introductory notes and explanations. The work opens with a listing of basic statistics followed by chapters on territory and climate and on population. The chapter on population includes subsections on evolution of the total population, the active population, natural movement of the population, migratory movement, and housing and households. The major section on economic statistics includes chapters on national accounts, agriculture and forestry, industry, artisanry, services, banks and credit, public finances, income and social security, consumption and prices, research and external economic relations. The section on noneconomic statistics includes chapters on accidents, anthropometry, culture and education, environment, justice, names and surnames of the national population, politics, religion, health, and sports.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS. 1988 Feb; 103(1):1-25.An economic analysis of the linkages in fertility rates and capital accumulation across generations is developed, considering the determination of fertility and capital accumulation in each generation when wage rates and interest rates are parameters to each family and to open economies. The model is based on the assumption that parents are altruistic toward their children. The utility of parents depends on their own consumption and on the utility of each child and the number of children. By relating the utility of children to their own consumption and to the utility of their children, a dynastic utility function was obtained that depends on the consumption and number of descendants in all generations. The term "reformulation" was used because of the emphasis on dynastic utility model of altruism toward children and deriving the budget constraint and utility function of a dynastic family, the model was applied to the Great Depression and World War II. The 1st-order conditions to maximize utility imply that fertility in any generation depends positively on the real interest rate and the degree of altruism and negatively on the rate of growth in per capita consumption from 1 generation to the next. Consumption of each descendant depends positively on the net cost of rearing a desdendant. Applying the model, it is shown that the analysis is consistent with baby busts during the Depression and the war and with a baby boom after the war. The effects on fertility of child mortality, subsidies to (or taxes on) children, and social security and other transfer payments to adults were considered. The demand for surviving children rises during the transition to low child mortality, but demand for survivors return to its prior level once mortality stabilizes at a low level. Fertility falls in response to declines in international real interest rates and increases in an economy's rate of technological progress. Extending the analysis to include life-cycle variations in consumption, earnings, and utility, fertility emerges as a function of expenditures on the subsistence and human capital of children but not of expenditures that simply raise the consumption of children. The path of aggregate consumption in demographic steady states does not depend on interest rates, time preference, or other determinants of life-cycle variations in consumption.
Interaction between macro-economic activities and demographic changes in selected developing countries.
Leicester, England, University of Leicester, Department of Economics, 1987 Oct. 26 p. (Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 66)The author analyzes the relationship between population and economic development in developing countries using a macro-level model and short-term time-series data. The variables considered are consumption expenditure, investment expenditure, national income, and population; the countries examined are India, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic, with the United Kingdom as a control. The time period covered is 1964-1980. The results show little support for Malthusian theory and only partial support for alternative theories asserting that population growth is associated with technological progress.
In: Tobacco: a major international health hazard. Proceedings of an international meeting organized by the IARC and co-sponsored by the All-Union Cancer Research Centre of the Academy of Medical Sciences of the USSR, Moscow, USSR, held in Moscow, 4-6 June 1985, [edited by] D.G. Zaridze, R. Peto. Lyon, France, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 1986. 125-33. (IARC Scientific Publications No. 74)In most developing countries, tobacco consumption has been relatively low in the past. It has been increasing in recent years as developed countries have exported more cigarettes to developing countries, and as developing countries have cultivated more tobacco themselves to produce cheaper tobacco, at the sacrifice of food production. Tobacco sales are an important source of revenue for governments in the developing countries as in the developed countries. The spread of smoking to developing countries and the increase in tobacco consumption have had several adverse effects: an increase in lung cancer and other smoking-related diseases; an increase in economic burdens resulting from imports of cigarettes from developed countries and increased medical costs for smoking-related diseases; and decreases in production and import of foods. There are many obstacles and constraints to smoking control in the developing countries, but smoking control is badly needed to prevent lung cancer and other smoking-related diseases, to alleviate economic burdens, and to increase the production and import of foods. (author's)
APPLIED ECONOMICS. 1987 Nov; 19(11):1,483-95.The authors analyze the effects on consumption in the United States of 11 demographic variables, including "regional location and the urban/rural base of the household, its age, size, race, sex and marital characteristics, and the education and the employment status of the household head and the spouse." Data are from the 1972-1973 Consumer Expenditure Survey. The expenditure functions are first specified, followed by descriptions of the data sources and the empirical estimates of expenditure functions for various items of consumption spending. (EXCERPT)
Family Planning Perspectives. 1988 May-Jun; 20(3):139-43.The issues surrounding fertility decline and demographic aging in Europe are discussed. The author asserts that "the numerical declines and older age structures anticipated offer two potential benefits: First, a period of lessened pressure from population growth could provide...an improved quality of life by bringing consumption patterns into better alignment with ecological reality. Second..., a shift in age structure could possibly result in reduced demands on resources and could, in fact, provide less support for the general ethic of economic growth itself." (EXCERPT)
New York, New York, Cosmopolitan, 1987. xv, 316 p.Volume III of the COSMOPOLITAN REPORT first reviews the major conclusions of volume I (demographic change) and II (changes in attitudes, values, and lifestyles) and then discusses the likely implications of those conclusions for consumer behavior. The economic context within which the changing role of women as consumers has taken place includes changes in 1) the characteristics of working women, 2) their occupational distribution, and 3) women's earnings relative to men's. Chapter 1 introduces the volume, and chapter 2 outlines the economic context. Chapter 3 presents the methods used to describe changes in consumer behavior and the application of the life-cycle-stage distribution to the projection of women's demand for products and services. Chapter 4 reviews changes in women's consumption of media--magazines read and television half-hours viewed. Chapter 5 examines the segmentation of the automotive market and includes projections of the number of female principal drivers of domestic and imported cars bought new in the past 4 years. Chapter 6 looks at changes in the cosmetics market--consumption of hair coloring, facial moisturizer, make up, and fragrance. Chapter 7 considers women and the travel industry--changes in the use of air travel. Chapter 8 reviews the participation of women in active sports and the purchase of active sportswear. Chapter 9 examines changing patterns of food purchasing--major and fill-in food shopping and dining out in low-cost restaurants. Chapter 10 surveys participation in public activities and membership in organizations. Chapter 11 summarizes the primary woman as consumer, the aging of the US consumer, and individual characteristics as predictors of consumption.
Cambridge, Massachusetts, Harvard University, Migration and Development Program, 1987 Sep. 27 p. (Migration and Development Program Discussion Paper No. 32)The marital arrangements among households in rural India were examined to explain mobility patterns. It was hypothesized that the marrying out of daughters to locationally distant, dispersed yet kinship-related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks. The study's data were drawn from a longitudinal survey of households in 3 farm villages in Southern India. Of the 115 marriages included in this sample, only 14 (12%) involved partners who were not also relatives. In 82% of the marriages involving heads of households, the head and his wife had parents with either the same dry or irrigated landholdings or with the same parental schooling levels. The close matching of marital partners with respect to origin household characteristics and the diversity and distance characterizing the marriages were consistent with the hypothesis that marital arrangements influence a household's ability to smooth its consumption when confronted with highly variable income streams. The marital status of adult women in the household, and the interhousehold bonds created by marriage, is the decisive factor contributing to income risk mitigation. Marriage with migration contributed to a reduction in variability in consumption. Households exposed to higher income risks were more likely to invest in longer distance migration-marriage arrangements. The hypothesized and observed marriage-migration patterns contradict standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains.
In: Population strategy in Asia. The Second Asian Population Conference, Tokyo, November 1972. Report, declaration and selected papers, [compiled by] United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East [ECAFE]. Bangkok, Thailand, ECAFE, 1974 Jun. 190-203. (Asian Population Study Series No. 28; E/C.N.11/1152)The question raised in this discussion is how demographic conditions and particularly the rate of population growth affect both the role investment plays in social development and the allocation of resources among the alternative social projects and programs. Particular attention is directed to the factors and problems decision makers and social planners must consider in allocating social investment. An attempt is made to analyze 3 ways in which demographic conditions may affect the production of social goods and services: economies of scale; innovation; and changes in the mix of inputs. The implications of economies of scale for social investment policy are 2-fold: in allocating resources among sectors, decision makers must consider differences among sectors in the extent of economies (or diseconomies) of scale; and social investment policy may seek to exploit economies of scale without depending on population growth and to minimize diseconomies of scale without depending on reductions in population growth. It has been hypothesized that rapid population growth will lead to innovation in social technology, yet it is unclear why individuals or societies should respond more creatively to pressure due to population growth than to pressure due to economic or political developments or to higher levelsof aspiration. And, it is unclear that rapid population growth has in fact stimulated innovation in specific countries. Changes in the relative prices of inputs may call for or even induce changes the mix of imputs used in producing social goods. This may be the case even in the absence of technological advance. Although it often is noted that population growth tends to increase the desired and actual level of consumption of social goods and services, it less frequently is recognized that the relative increases in consumption are not likely to be the same for all social goods and services. This is due in part to the production relationships. To bring about a general decline in fertility it is insufficient to increase the consumption of social goods and services by a relatively small number of rich couples who already may limit their fertility. What is necessary is to increase the consumption of social goods and services by all parts of the population and thereby to influence the fertility behavior of a substantial proportion of the population. Policies designed to influence economic behavior might be directed appropriately towards relatively high income groups, for they account for a disproportionately large share of all consumption, saving, and investment.
[Demographic variables in neoclassical growth models] Demographische Variablen in neoklassischen Wachstumsmodellen.
Bochum, Germany, Federal Republic of, N. Brockmeyer, 1987. 285 p. (Contributions to Quantitative Economics/Beitrage zur Quantitativen Okonomie Vol. 10)A comparative dynamic analysis of the relationships between demographic and economic development is provided using neoclassical growth and stable population models. The influence of fertility on population growth rates, age structure, and the economic system is examined. Specifically, the author investigates the influence of population growth on the quality and quantity of the supply of labor, discusses the relationship between trends in productivity and population growth, and tries to determine the impact of demographic variables on consumer and capital goods production. The influence of population growth on the distribution of labor and capital is also discussed. The focus is on economics at the national level.
ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL. 1986 Dec; 14(4):106.This paper uses the life cycle hypothesis to explain why personal savings in the U.S. have fallen to a low of 1.9% of disposable income in 1985, despite tax cuts. Life cycle theory envisions an individual's lifetime as a series of choices of current consumption and allocation of net worth between alternative assets and liabilities so as to maximize the expected utility of consumption over life. The mathematical expression for the utility function implies the stochastic nature of future return on aessts and independence at any given age of the ratio of consumption to resources to total resources. Population growth leads to positive saving overall by increasing the ratio of younger households. The proportion of younger households (ages 25-44) in the U.S. population increased by 10.3 million from 1980-1985, and this growth is expected to continue. Older households increased their savings, but younger families are borrowing more and spending the money their elders saved.
[Population in the planning of human settlements] La poblacion en la planeacion de los asentamientos humanos.
In: Memoria del Seminario sobre la Poblacion y el Desarrollo Regional y Urbano, Aguascalientes, AGS, Septiembre de 1982, [compiled by] Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]. Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984 Jul. 63-79.This 2-part article contains a section which explores the relationship between population and urban development, specifically in Mexico, and a section which describes the objectives and content of a manual on the handling of socioeconomic aspects in urban planning. It is commonly recognized that population is an important factor in settlement planning, but population is rarely taken into account after the initial stages of the planning process. Population implies demand in urban planning: demand for schools, clinics, roads, transportation, housing, and other infrastructure and services. The focus in urban development planning should achieve a balance between viewing the population as a homogeneous mass requiring services and differentiating between the consumption needs of individuals of different socioeconomic levels. A useful population study for urban development planning must be based on 4 premises: 1) the population and its characteristics depend on the economic and social development not just in the population center but in the surrounding region and perhaps nation 2) in some cases, such as connurbations, the characteristics of a population are not primarily the result of economic development of the original area, and preexisting population characteristics are of little relevance for planning purposes 3) the planning process is immersed in a political context of which the population forms an active part, and 4) for urban development planning, it is not enough to treat the situation of individuals with regard to the productive apparatus in a mechanical fashion. Based on these general considerations and conceptual premises, the Director General of Population Centers of the Secretariat of Human Settlements and Public Works, with the collaboration of the National Population Council, is developing a "Manual of Socioeconomic and Demographic Aspects for Urban Development Planning of Population Centers". The objectives of the manual will be to overcome the spacialist character of urban planning in Mexico by insisting on consideration of social and economic aspects, to provide an overall understanding of the urban planning process to persons responsible for local plalnning using a simple methodology, and to train local planning teams in the treatment of socioeconomic aspects. To make the accessible to persons with little background in socioeconomic analysis, short analyses of each aspect will contain an introduction relating the aspect to urban development and planning, definitions of all the concepts utilized, operationalization of concepts, and sources of information. The main body of the manual will analyze demographic aspects including fertility, mortality, and migration; economic aspects, including the major economic activities of the locality, the labor force, and the history of the local economy; and social aspects, including social structure and organization and the role of the state. The manual will include a catalogue of all available sources of socioeconomic and demographic data, suggested alternative sources of data, and instructions for conducting simple surveys. It is strongly recommended that disaggregated census data be made available for local pllanning purposes.
[Migrations in Africa: comments on the article by Professor Adepoju] Les migrations en Afrique: commentaires de l'article du Prof. Adepoju.
[Unpublished] 1986. Presented at the All-Africa Conference of Parliamentarians on Population and Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 12-16, 1986. 10 p.This paper contains comments on the paper delivered by A. Adepoju to the 1986 PanAfrican Conference of Parlementarians on Population and Development in Harare, Zimbabwe. Scarcely 20 years ago, economists saw migration as a sign of economic progress in which rural populations were slowly transferred to the urban industrial centers where thousands of jobs awaited them. It is now known that the speed and intensity of migration pose serious economic, social, and political problems for African countries. No country has an optimal spatial distribution of population. Natural resources, soil quality, and poles of economic growth are unevenly distributed. Migration is principally a process of adjusting settlement patterns to resources and economic conditions. What is now astounding in Africa is the huge gap between the quality of life in rural and urban areas. The rural exodus of the past 2 decades in most African countries has been due not so much to drought or other natural disasters as to insufficiency of resources in the countryside. A policy to distribute resources between rural and urban zones would constitute a true policy of population distribution. During the decade from 1980-90, the pace of urbanization in Africa is expected to decline. Current projections do not anticipate continuing economic crisis or natural disasters. Creation of urban jobs to combat unemployment in the cities has had the effect of intensifying the rural exodus, transforming the problem of urban unemployment into a permanent structural problem. Rural resettlement programs and sedentarization programs for nomads are limited solutions to problems of spatial distribution which frequently lack true political support for the extended periods necessary to ensure their success. Their greatest challenge is to provide the means of retaining the children of the original settlers so that new migratory flows do not arise from them. Policies to encourage the growth of medium sized cities in order to reduce migration to the capital are even harder to implement than rural resettlement programs, and appear to hold limited promise in Africa. Given the low degree of industrialization in Africa, few countries are capable of creating new urban growth poles offering sufficiently diversified employment to divert migrants from the capital. The observation over the past several decades in Africa has been that the larger the city, the more migrants it attracts. International migration within Africa has probably lessened in intensity since the 1970s due to economic problems in the countryside. Free circulation of population is however required if Africa is to be an economic community. The "brain drain" is a source of worry to many governments despite the shortterm benefits derived from remittances. Overall, few African governments have coherent migration policies. Only by giving migration policy priority in development plans can African countries hope to influence the distribution of their populations.
[Questions with regard to the balance among population resources, environment and development before the International Population Conference] Algunas cuestiones en torno al balance entre poblacion, recursos, medio ambiente y desarrollo, ante la Conferencia Internacional de Poblacion.
In: Reunion Nacional sobre Poblacion, Recursos, Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo, Tijuana, Baja California, June 15, 1984, [compiled by] Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]. Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 21-33.The interconnections between population, resources, the environment, and development are complex and difficult to analyze. Deleterious consequences of population pressure and development on resources and the environment are recognized, but advocates of extreme conservation may not be willing to acknowledge that some resource use is necessary for survival. On the other hand, those who wish to provide each of the earth's several billion inhabitants with a modern, materially advantaged lifestyle may not acknowledge that resources are too limited to support such a standard. The belief that slowing population growth by itself will free the world of resource constraints is simplistic. The rapid fall in fertility rates in Mexico and Latin America will not solve any economic problems. In absolute terms, Mexican and Latin American population growth will continue to be immense. Almost all countries are aware of the need to slow demographic growth. It is necessary, however, for developing countries to take the position in the impending World Population Conference that slower population growth will not by itself solve the development problem. Focusing exclusively on population pressure ignores the inequities in distribution of income and wealth found between nations and within even the poorest nations. Environmental impact and resource use are determined by consumption in developed countries and among elite classes in developing countries more than by population size.
INTERNATIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS. 1986 Sep; 5(9):1-8.Focus in this discussion of Belgium is on: cities and regions, population change, households and families, labor force, consumption, communication and transport, and sources of information. Belgium was created in 1830 as a constitutional monarch and buffer state amidst great European powers. Its constitution creating a parliamentary system of government has served as a model for many emerging democracies. Unemployment dropped from more than 14% in 1984 to just over 12% in the 1st quarter of 1986. Belgium also is experiencing a somewhat improved balance of payments and respectable overall economic growth of around 2.5% through the 1st half of 1986 along with close trading links and minimum customs formalities with Luxembourg and Holland. Yet, wages lag behind inflation after the last government suspended an index system that mandated automatic income adjustments in line with the cost of living. In 1983, for the 1st time since the country's economic boom of the 1960s, purchasing power for the average Belgium declined. About 90% of Belgium's estimated 9,880,000 inhabitants live in cities and towns ranging over a territory of only 30,518 KM. Administratively, the region of Flanders has 5 provinces, Wallonia, 4. Regions are further broken down into arrondissements and communes. Belgium's under replacement level birth rate is expected to decline further, and its proportion of elderly persons in the total population is expected to rise, straining even further an already overburdened system of social security and health care. Belgium's 10-year intercensal population gain (between 1971-81) was the smallest in the country's history. Belgium's total population stood at 9,853,023 on January 1, 1984, a decline of almost 5000 from the preceding year. Belgium's average household size is decreasing due to a larger aged population, an upsurge in divorces and unmarried young couples, and a declining birth rate. About 1/3 of the population works. At mid-1984, the figure stood at 3,638,000. The service sector generates more than half the country's jobs. The largest share of household consumption in 1983 was on food, at 18.6%.
In: Reunion Nacional sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo, Guadalajara, Jalisco, 11 de mayo de 1984, [compiled by] Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO] Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 57-79.Population policy in Mexico is closely tied to the strategy for achieving a more egalitarian society in the areas of employment and income distribution. Current migration patterns in Mexico resulted largely from the development model followed since the 1950s, which gave rise to population movements because of the growth of infrastructure and communication facilities as well as new employment opportunities in some areas and shrinking labor markets in others. Existing data on migration in Mexico is insufficient, and other sources should be developed to supplement the national population censuses. Some urban areas with relatively abundant services have attracted high concentrations of population, while in some areas industrial development has prompted population influxes which the localities are unable to manage efficiently. Goals of the National Development Plan include relocation of the population concentrated in the largest cities, reorientation of migration, and retention of population in places of origin. In 1980, over 60% of Mexico's population was classified as urban. The urban population has grown at least 3 times faster than the rural for the past 35 years. Aids to industrialization in Mexico's past development plans implied channeling into industry the economic surplus generated in the agricultural sector, public enterprises, the informal sectors of the economy, and export businesses. The principal mechanisms utilized were adjustment of relative prices of urban and rural products, containment of labor costs, and transferral of economic resources from exporters to importers through overvaluing of the currency. The industrialization process resulted in generation of employment in urban areas and concentrated opportunities for social advancement and access to basic services in cities as well, resulting in the definitive movement of millions of Mexicans into the cities while the rural areas had increasing difficulties retaining their populations. The overall orientation of the World Population Plan of Action coincides in its basic aspects with the central strategies of the Mexican National Development Plan. The Mexican Plan proposes to address problems of migration by dealing with their structural causes, and also emphasizes development of efficient links between the national and international economies. The Plan recognizes that a better regional distribution of productive resources is needed, as well as a reorientation of production in favor of mass consumption. 2 lines of action are intended to influence population distribution: integral rural development and decentralization of production and social welfare activities. More equitable terms of exchange between rural and urban areas will be required in order to improve rural living standards. Organizations such as the National Employment Service are among the legal and administrative instruments which are expected to help implement new strategies.
[Using demographic statistics in market studies and specifically for the business planning] Utilisation des statistiques demographiques dans les etudes de marche et specifiquement pour les plans des entreprises.
In: Utilisation des statistiques demographiques au Cameroun. Actes d'une Seminaire tenu du 16 au 19 Juillet 1984 a Yaounde. Yaounde, Cameroon, Ministere du Plan et de l'Amenagement du Territoire, 1985 Jul. 308-32.This article assesses the potential use of demographic statistics in determining the volume and structure of consumption through market studies and the sources of demographic data used in market studies, and presents concrete examples of demographic data use in market studies in Cameroon. The age and sex structure of the population influences the availability of labor and the extent of the market for particular products, while the socioeconomic structure is related to income and purchasing power. Population movements of particular interest to business planning include rural-urban migration, change in the numbers of households or household size, and change in household budgets. Population growth, determined by prevailing patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration, is the most important determinant of total consumption of many products. The 3 major data sources for market studies are population censuses, demographic surveys, and civil registration systems. Censuses furnish exhaustive statistics on individual and collective characteristics for population units of all sizes, serve as bases for sampling studies, and are useful for study of population movement. Budget-consumption studies with demographic content are the usual method of determining effective consumption. The budget-consumption survey underway in Cameroon is expected to yield data on a wide range of household expenditures. A well-functioning civil registration system combined with accurate knowledge of migratory trends would permit calculation of the population growth rate. Concrete examples of market studies undertaken in Cameroon using available demographic data include a footwear manufacturer that used demographic data to help estimate the proportion of shoes to offer for different ages and sizes of feet, a producer of school notebooks who used data on population structure to determine the number of each type of notebook to produce, and a life insurance company which needed to structure rates to fit Cameroon, a country with few actuaries. A cigarette company and a brewery requiring data for planning of distribution and possible expansion are other examples of enterprises requiring demographic data. Limited availability of official statistics and out-of-date data forced each company to some extent to develop supplementary data collection systems.
New York, New York, Population Council, 1985 Dec. 39 p. (Population Council. Center for Policy Studies Working Papers No. 120)This essay explores the economic implications of continuing below-replacement fertility in the developed countries of the West. Effects of low fertility on labor supply, technological change and investment and consumption are noted, but their economic growth and welfare consequences, it is argued, can for the most part be discounted provided some reasonable degree of institutional adaptability is present. 2 further areas where similar complacency on economic effects appears unjustified are explored at greater length. One is the potential influence of low fertility on income distribution and economic mobility. Social security issues, while properly seen as highly important, are only a subset of an intricate mesh of distributional relationships affected by fertility patterns. The other area is that of international economic relations, given the trend toward demographic inconsequence of the rich countries and the uncertain prospects of their continued technological dominance. The chief demographic effects of below replacement fertility are: eventual but often greatly delayed contraction in population numbers; a concentration of families around completed parities of 0-3; substantial rises in the median age of the population and in the proportion of elderly; and a fall-off in the relative numbers of youth and in the ratio of labor force entrants to retirees under constant participation rates. Technological effects of population growth are meditated through factor prices: a labor shortage can elicit shifts to more capital-intensive production methods. Low fertility, even somewhat below replacement level, presents no great difficulty for a modern economy. Its effects are probably small compared to business-cycle fluctuations in economic performance, and reasonable flexibility in adjustments to complementary factor inputs and technology and in fiscal management should enable continuation of a satisfactory pace of economic growth, both aggregate and per capita.
[Is population growth the source of misery in the Third World?] La croissance demographique est-elle responsable de la misere du Tiers Monde.
Recherche. 1985 Nov; 16(171):1380-1.The developing countries experienced their most rapid demographic growth of 2-4% per year between 1950-80, with the highest rates occurring in the 1960s and a slight easing taking place in the 1970s. The most direct way of assessing whether this extraordinary demographic growth impeded economic development is to calculate the correlation between demographic growth and the per capita gross national product (GNP) at constant prices. The average annual growth of GNP in developing countries from 1950-75 was 3.4% compared to 3.2% in developed countries, while the rates from 1975-80 were 2.4% and 2.8% respectively. The average rate of growth of GNP in developed countries was only about 2% in the 1st half of this century, while that in many developing countries has been zero for centuries. The postwar demographic explosion therefore coincided with an unprecedented economic explosion. Between 1950-80, the population of India and China increased by about 800 million persons, but economic progress even in India was substantial. China and Pakistan saw a doubling and Mexico and Brazil a tripling of per capita income. This undeniable economic progress was not achieved without some cost; it was accompanied by increased debt and has been very unequal between countries. Outside of some extreme cases like Bangladesh where demographic pressure threatens the equilibrium between population and resources, it is most often the less densely populated African countries which are most backward. Factors of underdevelopment appear to be more often political instability and strategic-errors such as insufficient investment in agriculture and general infrastructure than demographic constraints. The correlation between mortality decline and increased per capita income was very strong, especially in the 1950s and 1960s and especially in Japan and the newly industrializing Asian countries and Latin America. The growth of income permitted improved nutrition and education of the population, which in turn stimulated growth of income and population. In view of the data, there appears to be a contradiction between the historic reality and the pessimism of postwar economic literature. The error appears to have arisen because of a failure to recognize that not only do economic and demographic growth have common structural roots, but they are susceptible to dynamic and cumulative interaction. Also, the overattention to high fertility led to neglect of the stimulating role of mortality decline, which is closely related to economic development. Growth of income and growth of population are a priori associated: they are 2 facets of the same development process.
[Third World cities: points of accumulation, centers of distribution] Les villes du Tiers Monde: theatres d'accumulation, centres de diffusion.
Tiers-Monde. 1985 Oct-Dec; 26(104):823-40.Attention was called over 3 decades ago to the very rapid growth of Third World cities and the significance of the differences between their patterns of urbanization and those of industrialized countries. Their demographic growth occurred much faster and depended much more heavily on high fertility, their economies were geared more to export of raw materials than to manufacturing and were unable to create massive numbers of jobs to absorb the growing labor force except in the unproductive tertiary sector, and it appeared unlikely that they would be able to produce entrepreneurial classes of their own. Several economic developments during the 1970s affected the world economy and the patterns of urbanization of the Third World: the decline of the principal capitalist economies and the multiple increases in the price of oil, the floating exchange rate, the considerable increase in consumer goods, and the increasing costs of labor in industrialized countries, among others, created new conditions. World economic interdependence, international control of investment and exchange, and volume and mobility of capital increased at a time of rapid economic growth in some Third World countries, especially those whose governments took an aggressive role in promoting growth and investment. Some Third World cities now seem to be developing according to a more western model, but the same cannot be said of all Third World countries, and international economic evolution appears to have led to increasing polarization between countries as well as within them. The 1 domain where a certain convergence has occurred is consumption, beginning with the privileged classes and filtering to the lower income groups. Consumption of collective and individual consumer goods, which is concentrated in the largest cities, increases dependence on imports, technology, knowledge, and usually debt. The modern productive sector and its distribution activities become implanted in the cities to such a degree that it becomes more and more difficult for the consumption needs of regional cities and rural areas to be satisfied except through manufactured products from the capitalist sector of the principal city or through imports from industrial countries. Despite the fact that some Third World cities will be enormous by the year 2000 and that their social structures and labor forces will not closely resemble those of European cities, the thesis of "pseudourbanization" appears invalid for several reasons: the model of sectorial changes in the European labor force was not followed by the industrializing countries of North America; some Third World countries (excluding India and China) appear able to absorb most of their surplus rural population into the modern sector, and Third World cities appear less and less to be merely centers of culture. New research during the 1970s on Third World urbanization contributed several crucial elements to the analysis: recognition that insertion of developing countries into the international economic order has been a major influence on their urbanization patterns, appreciation of the role of migration in urbanization, realization of the potential role of the state in mitigating spatial and structural inequalities created by the urbanization process, and recognition of the need for more detailed microeconomic studies and construction of more elaborate models of Third World economies.
International Demographics. 1986 Feb; 5(2):1-9.This discussion of Italy focuses on the following: cities and regions; population growth; households and families; housing and construction; ethnicity and religion; education; economy and labor force; consumption; and transport and communications. Italy, with its total area of 116,374 square miles, is about the size of Florida and Georgia combined. Its 56.6 million people form the 2nd largest population in Western Europe, after West Germany, but slightly larger than Great Britain and France. The main administrative divisions are 20 regions, subdivided into 95 provinces. The provinces in turn are divided into 8090 "comuni" or municipalities. The 6 cities with more than 500,000 people are Roma, Milano, Napoli, Torino, Genova, and Palermo. They account for 14% of the population. The 43 cities with between 100,000-500,000 account for another 13%. There are 373 middle-sized communities with between 20,000 and 100,000 people, accounting for 26% of population. Italy has a regional problem. The line separating the regions of Emilia Romagna, Toscana, Umbria, and Lazio from the regions to the south and east is important. The regions north of it hold 62% of the population but are responsible for 73% of the gross national product (GNP) and 78% of the industrial product. The regions to the south are economically much weaker. At the time of the last Italian census on October 25, 1981, the country counted 56.6 million inhabitants. Compared to 33.5 million at the turn of the century, this implies an average annual growth rate of .61%. Between 1900-70, nearly 20 million Italians left their country. Most settled in the US, Argentina, and Brazil. Beginning in the 1960s, a new sort of migration was added as young Italians temporarily left to work in the more prosperous countries of northern Europe. The birthrate, which had declined slowly to 18/1000 during the 1960s, fell more rapidly during the 1970s, to 10.9/1000 in 1981 and 10.3 in 1984. The death rate in Italy has changed little since 1950. Presently, it hovers around 9.5/1000. With its low birthrate and outmigration of young adults, Italy is aging. The median age is about 34 years, and 13% of the population is aged 65 and older. Despite the stereotypical image of the large Italian family, household size in Italy, as in other industrialized nations, is declining, from a mean of 3.6 in 1961 to 3.4 in 1971 and 3.0 in 1981. Culturally, Italy is a homogeneous country. In 1984 there were 23 million people in Italy's work force. Among the economically inactive, 33% were younger than age 14, 30% were housewives, 23% were retired, and 11% were students. In 1984, average annual family income varied from the equivalent of about $15,900 in Emilia Romagna to $9,500 in Sicilia. Mean annual household budgets in 1983 varied from te equivalent of $11,950 in Lombardia to $7,400 in Molise, with a national average of $10,026.
[Unpublished] 1985. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Boston, Massachusetts, March 28-30, 1985. Also published in: Economic Development and Cultural Change 34(4):755-82. 1986 Jul. 26,  p.Mortality is assumed to be strongly reduced by medical care, however, the effects of medical services on health are often underestimated because some of the same factors which lead to an increased demand for primary health care (PHC) services are also associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Consequently, understanding the determinants of the demand for medical services is important for evaluating health outcomes. This paper estimates the parameters of a simple model of the demand for health services using data from the Bicol Multipurpose Survey data from the Philippines. The parameters of the demand for key components of PHC--outpatient, prenatal, delivery, well-child, and infant immunizations--are estimated. Findings suggest that the quality of the care may be very important, but that economic factors as deterrents to using medical care--inaccessibility, cash costs, and lack of income--may not be of paramount importance. Finally, it is shown that the provision of free services in rural areas may not insure that the services reach the poorest people. (author's modified)
The economic impact of international migration with special reference to workers' remittances in countries of the Middle East.
In: International Population Conference, Florence, 1985, June 5-12. Congres International de la Population. Volume 3. Liege, Belgium, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, 1985. 13-29.This paper attempts to study the economic impact on the labor-exporting economies of the process of international labor migration, with special reference to the process of labor migration to oil-rich countries of the Middle East. The analysis contained in this paper focuses on the macroeconomic impacts of workers' remittances from a developmental viewpoint. The paper addresses a number of specific issues, namely: 1) the size and growth trends in the flows of workers' remittances in countries exporting labor to oil-rich countries of the Middle East; 2) the impact of workers' remittances on the behavior of consumption functions and consumption patterns of labor-exporting countries of the Middle East; 3) the main investment avenues through which workers' remittances are channelled; 4) the mulitplier processes associated with the inflow of workers' remittances in labor-exporting countries; 5) some welfare implications at the micro and macro levels. (author's modified)
[Unpublished] 1985 Mar. 55 p.This study presents new analysis and evidence on the link between population growth and national saving. Analysis was based on the variable rate-of-growth effect model (Mason, 1981; Fry and Mason, 1982), which distinguishes 2 population growth effects: the rate of growth effect and the dependency effect. The paper's 1st section reviews previous research on the saving population growth link, including applications of the variable rate-of-growth effect model. Its 2nd part presents an extension of the variable rate-of-growth effect model by linking factors determining the number of children reared to the budget shares devoted to childbearing and, in turn, to the national saving rate. Part 3 presents estimates from international cross-section data covering the 1960-80 period. The final section uses the neoclassical growth model to show circumstances under which the rate of growth effect dominates the dependency effect reversing the relationship between population growth and saving. Available evidence from the international cross-section supports the proposition that a higher dependency ratio leads to lower saving, particularly among countries with moderate to high rates of income growth. At the mean rate of growth observed over the last 2 decades for the 70 countries analyzed, a decline from a high to a low childbearing regime generated an increase in the net national saving rate of about 5% -- nearly a 50% increase. The results reported also addressed the magnitude and validity of the equivalent adult consumer unit. Aggregate consumption data imply an equivalent adult consumer unit of about 1/3. The analysis implies that simulation models that are based on equivalent adult consumer unit can provide useful insights about the relationship between population growth and aggregate consumption and saving rates. The analysis fails to fully resolve the issue of the relative importance of the rate of growth and dependency effects. It is based on the neoclassical growth model for which the equilibrium rate of growth of national income increases point for point with an increase in the rate of growth of population. Given the long periods required to adjust from one equilibrium to another, the steady-state results of the neoclassical model may have limited relevance to the design and evaluation of development and population policy. Although the model proposed clearly delineates the link between children, household saving, and national saving, the role ascribed to children is limited. Only that children require household resources for their support is acknowledged.