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    075798

    [Demography and planning] Demografia e planejamento.

    de Souza GA; Szmrecsanyi T

    In: Dinamica da populacao: teoria, metodos e tecnicas de analise, [compiled by] Jair L.F. Santos, Maria Stella Ferreira Levy, Tamas Szmrecsanyi. Sao Paulo, Brazil, T.A. Queiroz, 1980. 311-5.

    Population is the sum of producers and consumers. There is a relationship of mutual dependence between demographic and socioeconomic variables. The capacity for production or effective production in a society does not only depend on the population, but it also determines the number of producers. They depend to a great degree on the means of production and on the productivity of the work force. Population represents only an approximation for gauging the dimensions of a consumer society. The effective demand for goods and services depends less on the number of inhabitants than on the level and profile of distribution of income. The size, the increase, the age composition, and spatial distribution of population provide data of fundamental importance for planning, mainly through demographic analysis and population studies. Information is used to produce models for planning, for the systematization of decisions in regional, sectoral, or isolated projects. Planning starts with diagnosis which, for instance, not only indicates whether the population is increasing, concentrating in urban areas, and the labor force is becoming younger, but also the components of population dynamics: fertility, mortality, and migrations. These data have to utilized optimally because of the lack of time and the high cost of research. Historical trends and projection into the future are carried out on the basis of such data concerning the increase of population and hypothesis about trends. Development policy constitutes the elaboration of plans by choosing quantitative objectives for accurate economic forecasting, while taking into consideration its interaction with demographic indicators, such as the infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth.
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