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PUBLIC FINANCE/FINANCES PUBLIQUES. 1993; 48, Suppl.:29-42.This paper develops an intertemporal simulation model capable of addressing the macroeconomic and distributional effects of demographic shocks in a small open economy. Two sources of population aging are examined, viz. lower birth rates and prolonged expected lifetimes at retirement age. Due to strong expectational effects, both shocks are found to change average consumption in a downward direction, in the short run as well as in the long run. This effect is matched by a strong net acquisition of foreign assets. Furthermore, it turns out that the intergenerational distribution of the burden of adjusting to an aging population is strongly dependent on whether the benefit rate, the contribution rate, or the relative non-capital income of pensioners and workers is held fixed. (EXCERPT)
Family Planning Perspectives. 1988 May-Jun; 20(3):139-43.The issues surrounding fertility decline and demographic aging in Europe are discussed. The author asserts that "the numerical declines and older age structures anticipated offer two potential benefits: First, a period of lessened pressure from population growth could provide...an improved quality of life by bringing consumption patterns into better alignment with ecological reality. Second..., a shift in age structure could possibly result in reduced demands on resources and could, in fact, provide less support for the general ethic of economic growth itself." (EXCERPT)
Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP], 1987. 10 p. (Population Research Leads No. 25)The Asian and Pacific region's decline in fertility and mortality over the past 2 decades has resulted in large shifts in the age composition of national populations, which affects planning in nearly every social and economic sector. For the region as a whole, the crude birthrate is estimated to have remained at 40/1000 population until about 1970, declining to 27/1000 in the 1980-85 period. This rapid decline in fertility has complicated population policy formulation and the integration of population factors into development planning. The demonstration that government programs could alter demographic trends meant that population no longer could be treated simply as an exogenous variable in development planning. The combination of previously high fertility and declining mortality, which particularly affected the survival rates of infants and children, resulted in a small increase in the proportion of the population of the region below age 15, from 37% in 1950 to 41% in 1970. By 1985, the latter proportion dropped to 35% because of declining fertility. Due to the previously high fertility and more recent declines, the proportion of the population in working-age groups increased from 56% in 1975 to 61% in 1985 and is projected to reach 65% by 2000. Providing employment for this rapidly increasing population of labor-force age is a major challenge for countries of the region over the next several decades. For those few countries in the Asian and Pacific regions who had low birth and death rates by 1960, the current issue is demographic aging. As the rate of population growth per se decreases in importance as a planning goal, other aspects of population, such as spatial distribution, take on more significance. The rising marriage age and organized family planning programs were the primary causes of fertility decline in the region, although the decline was limited in South Asia where large pockets of high fertility (a total fertility rate in the range of 5-7) remain. The contribution of rising marriage age to further fertility decline is approaching the limit, except in the countries of South Asia where the marriage age continues to be below 20 years. In most of the countries of the region, the potential also exists for a 2nd generation "baby boom" resulting from a changing age structure. This would in turn slow down the pace of fertility decline unless compensated by a rapid fall in fertility of younger married women caused by successful implementation of family planning programs and other associated socioeconomic changes. Aside from the straightforward implications of demographic change, changes in age structure also imply changes in consumption patterns. Thus, planning for production, consumption, investment, and distribution always should incorporate changes in age structure.
[Socioeconomic consequences of the aging of the population] A nepesseg oregedesenek nehany tarsadalmi--gazdasagi osszefuggese
Statisztikai Szemle. 1986 Feb; 64(2):109-21.The author addresses some of the economic and social implications of the aging of the population in Hungary. The study is based on a paper prepared within the scope of the project on Economic and Social Implications of Changing Age Distribution in Selected ECE Eountries carried out by the Secretariat of the UN Economic Commission for Europe (Population Activities Unit, GEAD) with support from the UNFPA. The 1st part of this study outlines the demographic characteristics of the aging process. In the 2nd part of the paper, various kinds of dependency ratios are presented, and changes in the age distribution of the working age population are reviewed. To estimate the influence of aging on the level of total consumption, age profiles of consumption are applied, and changes in the costs of selected social services are assessed through age-cost profiles of education, health services, and old age pensions. (author's) (summaries in ENG, RUS)
[The decline in fertility in the Federal Republic of Germany and some of its economic consequences] Spadek plodnosci w Republice Federalnej Niemiec oraz niektore jego konsekwencje ekonomiczne
Studia Demograficzne. 1984; (3/77):81-99.The causes and consequences of the continued fertility decline in the Federal Republic of Germany are examined. Factors associated with this decline include the increased demand for consumption, the desire for better living conditions, increased educational costs for children, the desire of women to continue their professional careers, the increased frequency of consensual unions, and, above all, the elimination of unplanned births. Special note is made regarding the threat that decreased fertility poses to the viability of the system of retirement funds. (summary in ENG, RUS)
Bethesda, Md, United States. National Institutes of Health [NIH], 1984. x, 146 p.This monograph describes the initial version of the longterm macroeconomic demographic model of the US economy which was developed for the National Institute of Aging (NIA) to investigate the effects of demographic aging on the income level of the elderly as well as on productivity, consumption, savings, and investment. Important features of the model design included the use of large amounts of demographic information, explicit representation of the process of economic growth, the use of a general equilibrium framework, representation of the structural features of the major pension systems, and a comprehensive, integrated approach. The macroeconomic demographic model is composed of a core macroeconomic and demographic modelling system and 5 peripheral models that depict the operation and behavior of the major components of the retirement income system. The core model has 3 major parts: a population projection system, a macroeconmic growth model, and a labor market model. The population model replicates US Census Bureau population projection methodology to project total US population by age and sex for each year from 1970 through 2055. The longterm econometric forecasting model which depicts formulation of working, spending, and savings plans by households and production, investment, and employment plans by businesses, as well as projecting demand for and supply of goods and services. The labor market model depicts the demand for labor, the supply of labor measured in total annual manhours worked for each of 22 age-sex groups, and the simultaneous determination of labor and capital services input along with compensation, output, and employment. The 5 major elements of the retirement income system that are modelled are the Social Security system, the private pension system, the public employee retirement system, the Supplemental Security Income system, and the Medicare system. At the start of each simulation year, the population model forecasts the new size and composition of the population. The macroeconomic growth model and labor market model use the figures to project levels of aggregate economic activity and labor market outputs for the 22 different age-sex cohorts. These projections are inputs into the simulation of each of the 3 pension system models and 2 transfer income models. 1 chapter of the report describes in nontechnical terms each of the 3 core and 5 peripheral models while the final chapter presents the base case simulation and validation of the model from 1970 to 1979. A series of appendices present the equations of each of the 5 principal models and also discuss new analyses completed in the course of model development.
In: Population policies in Asian countries: contemporary targets, measures and effects, edited by Hermann Schubnell. Lubeck, Germany, Federal Republic of, Drager Foundation, 1984. 429-43. (Centre of Asian Studies Occasional Papers and Monographs no. 57)Population policy conforming to socioeconomic development needs to be broadly defined and organized. This term is used as a collective notion for all sorts of political action designed to influence population trends according to specific objectives. The objectives, which are usually expressed in terms of demographic numbers or rates and related to a fixed period, need to meet 2 main requirements: they must comply with anticipated socioeconomic change on the macro-level as well as with needs and interests on the micro-level. When designing population policies, both levels must be considered, the one for determining desirable objectives and the other for choosing suitable strategies to realize the objectives. The discussion first examines the impact of population growth on the macro-level and then draws conclusions for appropriate policies. All developing countries are working for quick modernization and all want to raise productivity, to overcome economic dualism, and to promote sectoral and regional integration. Considering these common goals, the discussion turns to the question of how population trends at the various stages of transition correspond with the need to speed up socioeconomic progress. Leaving migration aside, the salient demographic factors to be considered are fertility and mortality. All economic problems caused by population growth arise from the respective conditions of births and deaths. These conditions are also the targets of population policy. A fall in mortality is a prerequisite for socioeconomic change. Mortality decline should be promoted despite the fact that the population will then grow more quickly. The problems which plague most developing countries with rapid population growth such as severe underemployment, unemployment and excessive urbanization are supported by persistent high fertility, but not by falling mortality. Only if fertility decreases will the other important d emographic obstacle to economic progress, i.e., the high dependency burden, become smaller. To show the basic effects of various fertility and mortality levels on such economically relevant facts as length of working life, youth dependency, and costs of raising the young generation, 3 models are used which correspond to 3 stages of demographic transition -- ongoing transition, advanced transition, and late transitional stage. The exercise shows that birth decline tends to improve consumption standards and in this way to influence economic development before the labor force is directly affected. Almost all developing countries need population policies to set in motion and speed up a fall in birth of either total population or certain population groups. Communal self help activities are particularly useful as part of programs aimed at inducing and speeding up fertility declines. Measures in the field of family planning, which are now the core of the programs, will be accepted more readily if families regard them as a means of improving social well-being.
Chapel Hill, N.C, University of North Carolina, 1982. 436 p.This research investigated the role of demographic factors in economic development. Specifically, a general model of the economic development process is constructed and then applied to the experience of South Korea from 1963-77. The model emphasizes the incorporation of demographic factors, widely interpreted to include not only the size, growth rate, and composition of the population, but also the quality of the population as minifested in the levels of human capital formation. South Korea has been 1 of the most successful of recent development efforts. Most of the research on the Korean phenomenon has highlighted the economic factors. Usually cited as responsible for the rapid, export led Korean economic development are the utilization of an able, motivated, but previously underemployed labor force, the large inflows of foreign capital, and the special relationships with Japan and the US, and the establishment of a strong central government, committed to economic development and able to implement effective growth policy. Important demographic factors, however were the impressive human capital formation that had begun 15 years prior to the onset of rapid economic growth and the dramatic declines in Korean fertility, which paralleled the economic achievements in the 1960s and 1970s. Using Korean national income data and economic-demographic selected surveys, the quantitative influences of demographic factors, particularly human capital formation and population dynamics, on Korean economic development for the 15-year period beginning in 1963 are assessed. The equations of the econometric model are estimated using either ordinary least squares of the 1st order autoregressive process. The empirical results show human capital formation to have been a significant and pervasive factor in recent South Korean economic development. Human capital formation, as proxied by indexes of formal educational attainment in the sectoral labor forces, was an important influence on real sectoral outputs and investments and in the growth of Korean exports. In addition, to the extent increases in education are associated with declines in fertility, human capital formation contributed to the substantial reductions in the growth rate of the Korean population, leading to favorable burden of dependency shifts and enhancing the ability of the Korean economy to generate the savings necessary for rapid growth and structural change. (author's)