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In: Economic and social implications of population aging: proceedings of the International Symposium on Population Structure and Development, Tokyo, 10-12 September 1987. New York, New York, United Nations, 1988. 121-44. (ST/ESA/SER.R/85.)Demographic projections for the majority of the industrial countries show that the proportion of persons of working age (15-59 or 15-64) in the total population will be higher in 2000 than it was in 1980. But after the beginning of the next century, in all the industrial countries except Ireland, there will be a gradual reduction in the proportion of persons of working age. The projections show that the deterioration in the ratio of persons aged 20-59 to those ages 60 and over will be felt gradually at first, owing to the baby boom, but that it will speed up from 2005. According to the majority of experts, the aging of the active population will have the effect of restraining the structural plasticity of the economy by slowing down necessary changes and mobility between sectors, and will produce an increase in wage and non-wage costs. Aging produces a slow decline in the consumption of goods and services associated with childhood and a slow increase in the consumption of certain goods and services connected with advancing age (leisure, health care, dietary products). Demographic aging has an effect on the quality of savings, which will tend to be more cautious and directed more towards prudent investments than towards investments in the modernization of the productive apparatus, which are not immediately profitable and contain risks. With the increase in life expectancy, the age of inheritance is constantly rising. The increasingly late passing-on of legacies does not facilitate the modernization of enterprises. The majority of retirement schemes have not yet reached maturity. Many pensioners have not contributed for the period required for a full pension, especially women. Increasingly, the rich countries are finding that they have a number of economic and social problems in common. In the rich countries, there is universal concern about the structural rigidity which aging creates and exacerbates in production and about the future financial balance of the retirement systems, which are seen to be under serious threat at a time when, paradoxically, the economic, social, and health situation of old people has never been better.
APPLIED ECONOMICS. 1987 Nov; 19(11):1,483-95.The authors analyze the effects on consumption in the United States of 11 demographic variables, including "regional location and the urban/rural base of the household, its age, size, race, sex and marital characteristics, and the education and the employment status of the household head and the spouse." Data are from the 1972-1973 Consumer Expenditure Survey. The expenditure functions are first specified, followed by descriptions of the data sources and the empirical estimates of expenditure functions for various items of consumption spending. (EXCERPT)
Family Planning Perspectives. 1988 May-Jun; 20(3):139-43.The issues surrounding fertility decline and demographic aging in Europe are discussed. The author asserts that "the numerical declines and older age structures anticipated offer two potential benefits: First, a period of lessened pressure from population growth could provide...an improved quality of life by bringing consumption patterns into better alignment with ecological reality. Second..., a shift in age structure could possibly result in reduced demands on resources and could, in fact, provide less support for the general ethic of economic growth itself." (EXCERPT)
ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL. 1986 Dec; 14(4):106.This paper uses the life cycle hypothesis to explain why personal savings in the U.S. have fallen to a low of 1.9% of disposable income in 1985, despite tax cuts. Life cycle theory envisions an individual's lifetime as a series of choices of current consumption and allocation of net worth between alternative assets and liabilities so as to maximize the expected utility of consumption over life. The mathematical expression for the utility function implies the stochastic nature of future return on aessts and independence at any given age of the ratio of consumption to resources to total resources. Population growth leads to positive saving overall by increasing the ratio of younger households. The proportion of younger households (ages 25-44) in the U.S. population increased by 10.3 million from 1980-1985, and this growth is expected to continue. Older households increased their savings, but younger families are borrowing more and spending the money their elders saved.
Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP], 1987. 10 p. (Population Research Leads No. 25)The Asian and Pacific region's decline in fertility and mortality over the past 2 decades has resulted in large shifts in the age composition of national populations, which affects planning in nearly every social and economic sector. For the region as a whole, the crude birthrate is estimated to have remained at 40/1000 population until about 1970, declining to 27/1000 in the 1980-85 period. This rapid decline in fertility has complicated population policy formulation and the integration of population factors into development planning. The demonstration that government programs could alter demographic trends meant that population no longer could be treated simply as an exogenous variable in development planning. The combination of previously high fertility and declining mortality, which particularly affected the survival rates of infants and children, resulted in a small increase in the proportion of the population of the region below age 15, from 37% in 1950 to 41% in 1970. By 1985, the latter proportion dropped to 35% because of declining fertility. Due to the previously high fertility and more recent declines, the proportion of the population in working-age groups increased from 56% in 1975 to 61% in 1985 and is projected to reach 65% by 2000. Providing employment for this rapidly increasing population of labor-force age is a major challenge for countries of the region over the next several decades. For those few countries in the Asian and Pacific regions who had low birth and death rates by 1960, the current issue is demographic aging. As the rate of population growth per se decreases in importance as a planning goal, other aspects of population, such as spatial distribution, take on more significance. The rising marriage age and organized family planning programs were the primary causes of fertility decline in the region, although the decline was limited in South Asia where large pockets of high fertility (a total fertility rate in the range of 5-7) remain. The contribution of rising marriage age to further fertility decline is approaching the limit, except in the countries of South Asia where the marriage age continues to be below 20 years. In most of the countries of the region, the potential also exists for a 2nd generation "baby boom" resulting from a changing age structure. This would in turn slow down the pace of fertility decline unless compensated by a rapid fall in fertility of younger married women caused by successful implementation of family planning programs and other associated socioeconomic changes. Aside from the straightforward implications of demographic change, changes in age structure also imply changes in consumption patterns. Thus, planning for production, consumption, investment, and distribution always should incorporate changes in age structure.
INTERNATIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS. 1986 Sep; 5(9):1-8.Focus in this discussion of Belgium is on: cities and regions, population change, households and families, labor force, consumption, communication and transport, and sources of information. Belgium was created in 1830 as a constitutional monarch and buffer state amidst great European powers. Its constitution creating a parliamentary system of government has served as a model for many emerging democracies. Unemployment dropped from more than 14% in 1984 to just over 12% in the 1st quarter of 1986. Belgium also is experiencing a somewhat improved balance of payments and respectable overall economic growth of around 2.5% through the 1st half of 1986 along with close trading links and minimum customs formalities with Luxembourg and Holland. Yet, wages lag behind inflation after the last government suspended an index system that mandated automatic income adjustments in line with the cost of living. In 1983, for the 1st time since the country's economic boom of the 1960s, purchasing power for the average Belgium declined. About 90% of Belgium's estimated 9,880,000 inhabitants live in cities and towns ranging over a territory of only 30,518 KM. Administratively, the region of Flanders has 5 provinces, Wallonia, 4. Regions are further broken down into arrondissements and communes. Belgium's under replacement level birth rate is expected to decline further, and its proportion of elderly persons in the total population is expected to rise, straining even further an already overburdened system of social security and health care. Belgium's 10-year intercensal population gain (between 1971-81) was the smallest in the country's history. Belgium's total population stood at 9,853,023 on January 1, 1984, a decline of almost 5000 from the preceding year. Belgium's average household size is decreasing due to a larger aged population, an upsurge in divorces and unmarried young couples, and a declining birth rate. About 1/3 of the population works. At mid-1984, the figure stood at 3,638,000. The service sector generates more than half the country's jobs. The largest share of household consumption in 1983 was on food, at 18.6%.
[Using demographic statistics in market studies and specifically for the business planning] Utilisation des statistiques demographiques dans les etudes de marche et specifiquement pour les plans des entreprises.
In: Utilisation des statistiques demographiques au Cameroun. Actes d'une Seminaire tenu du 16 au 19 Juillet 1984 a Yaounde. Yaounde, Cameroon, Ministere du Plan et de l'Amenagement du Territoire, 1985 Jul. 308-32.This article assesses the potential use of demographic statistics in determining the volume and structure of consumption through market studies and the sources of demographic data used in market studies, and presents concrete examples of demographic data use in market studies in Cameroon. The age and sex structure of the population influences the availability of labor and the extent of the market for particular products, while the socioeconomic structure is related to income and purchasing power. Population movements of particular interest to business planning include rural-urban migration, change in the numbers of households or household size, and change in household budgets. Population growth, determined by prevailing patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration, is the most important determinant of total consumption of many products. The 3 major data sources for market studies are population censuses, demographic surveys, and civil registration systems. Censuses furnish exhaustive statistics on individual and collective characteristics for population units of all sizes, serve as bases for sampling studies, and are useful for study of population movement. Budget-consumption studies with demographic content are the usual method of determining effective consumption. The budget-consumption survey underway in Cameroon is expected to yield data on a wide range of household expenditures. A well-functioning civil registration system combined with accurate knowledge of migratory trends would permit calculation of the population growth rate. Concrete examples of market studies undertaken in Cameroon using available demographic data include a footwear manufacturer that used demographic data to help estimate the proportion of shoes to offer for different ages and sizes of feet, a producer of school notebooks who used data on population structure to determine the number of each type of notebook to produce, and a life insurance company which needed to structure rates to fit Cameroon, a country with few actuaries. A cigarette company and a brewery requiring data for planning of distribution and possible expansion are other examples of enterprises requiring demographic data. Limited availability of official statistics and out-of-date data forced each company to some extent to develop supplementary data collection systems.
["Zero growth" of population and its consequences for the West] Nulevoi rost naseleniya i ego posledstviya dlya stran Zapada
Memo: Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya. 1985; (8):41-54, 159.The consequences of the decline in fertility in Western Europe and Northern America are analyzed. The author first describes current demographic trends and suggests that the trend toward population decline is probably irreversible. Consideration is given to determinants of fertility such as industrialization, urbanization, women's economic activity, educational standards, health services, social security, demographic policy, and income. Factors affecting Western fertility are identified as inflation, unemployment, and spiritual impoverishment. The existence of various schools of thought in Western countries concerning the implications of these trends is noted. These include the fear of the environmental impact of further population growth and the fear of the consequences of population decline. The author concludes that a period of stable population growth will mean a decline in the available labor force, an increase in the age of the labor force, an increase in the number of pensioners, a change in the structure of demand, and other problems for capitalist societies. (summary in ENG)
International Demographics. 1985 Dec; 4(12):1-4.This discussion of the Netherlands covers the country's cities and regions, population growth, households and families, housing, contruction, and spatial planning; ethnicity and religion; education; labor force and income; consumption; and transport and communications. As a small and mineral poor nation with a seafaring tradition, the Netherlands survives on foreign trade. In 1983, total export earnings amounted to nearly 62% of the entire national income. Over 72% of Dutch exports go to other member countries of the European Economic Community (EEC), but imports are more diversified, with 47% originating outside the EEC. Since 1848, the Netherlands has been a constitutional monarchy with a parliamentary form of government. As such, it is one of the most stable democracies in the world. The main administrative units are the 11 provinces, of which Noord-Holland and Zuid-Holland are the most populous and economically most important. Amsterdam remains the commercial center of the country, but its role as the principal port city has been taken over by Rotterdam. No community has more than 700,000 inhabitants, but the country as a whole is highly urbanized because of the large numbers of medium-sized cities. In 1983 the population of the Netherlands totaled 14.34 million, compared to 5.10 million at the turn of the century. In 1965, the total fertility rate was 3.0. The death rate has virtually stabilized at 8/1000. The Dutch life expectancy stands at 72.7 years for men and 79.4 for women (1983). Natural increase has already dropped to 0.4% a year. Apart from the slight impact of net immigration, the positive growth rate reflects the large proportion (53%) of the population in its reproductive years. Mean household sizes in the 11 provinces vary from 2.5 in Noord-Holland (in 1981) to nearly 3 in Overijssel and Noord-Brabant, whereas the proportion of 1 person households ranges from 16% in Drenthe and 17% in the somewhat traditionalist southern provinces of Limburg and Noord-Brabant to 27% in Noord-Holland and 28% in Groningen. Only 26% of the Dutch own their own homes. The Netherlands has historically been a nation of little ethnic, religious, or cultural conflict. The central government finances education at all levels, making education and science the 2nd largest budget item (19%), preceded only by welare and social policy (22%). In 1983 the economically active population consisted of 3.8 million men and nearly 2 million women.
[Unpublished] 1985. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Boston, Massachusetts, March 28-30, 1985. Also published in: Economic Development and Cultural Change 34(4):755-82. 1986 Jul. 26,  p.Mortality is assumed to be strongly reduced by medical care, however, the effects of medical services on health are often underestimated because some of the same factors which lead to an increased demand for primary health care (PHC) services are also associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Consequently, understanding the determinants of the demand for medical services is important for evaluating health outcomes. This paper estimates the parameters of a simple model of the demand for health services using data from the Bicol Multipurpose Survey data from the Philippines. The parameters of the demand for key components of PHC--outpatient, prenatal, delivery, well-child, and infant immunizations--are estimated. Findings suggest that the quality of the care may be very important, but that economic factors as deterrents to using medical care--inaccessibility, cash costs, and lack of income--may not be of paramount importance. Finally, it is shown that the provision of free services in rural areas may not insure that the services reach the poorest people. (author's modified)
Migrant behavior and the effects of regional prices: aspects of migrant selection in Colombia [tables]
[Unpublished] 1983. Presented at the 52nd Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, April 14-16, 1983. 3 p.If the preferences of potential migrants differ for activities and the structure of prices of these activities differ across regions, price variation may help to explain both who migrates and to where, and systematic behavioral differences between migrants and nonmigrants in consumption and investment, particularly as reflected in family size, child schooling, and child health. Colombia and Brazil are considered in the empirical analysis because these diverse countries involve traditional and dynamic frontier rural areas as well as urban centers where relative prices discourage high fertility and encourage schooling and health investments. (author's)
[Havana], Cuba, Comite Estatal de Estadisticas, . 126 p.This edition of "Cuba in Figures" contains selected indicators for different sectors which characterize the development of the national economy over the past few years. The statistical indicators for 1982-82 should be considered preliminary. The 16 sections provide data on the territory and climate; population, including resident population by sex and age group, the working age population by sex, the resident population by sex for provinces and municipalities and by rural or urban residence, annual growth rate, sex ratio, population distribution by social groups, and demographic rates; total production and indicators of sectoral production; labor force distribution and average salary levels; industrial production and basic indicators for the sugar, fishing, and other industries and energy consumption; contruction and housing; investment by components and provinces; agriculture and animal husbandry, including production, growth, land use patterns, irrigation, and activity indicators; transport and communications including total income, passenger and cargo totals, and structure and indicators of communications activity; internal commerce; external commerce; communal and personal services; education; culture and art; public health, including facilities, manpower resources, consultations, immunizations, and morbidity rates for reportable illnesses; tourism; and sports.