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  1. 1
    Peer Reviewed

    Remembering Malthus: a preliminary argument for a significant reduction in global human numbers.

    Smail JK

    American Journal of Physical Anthropology. 2002 Jul; 118(3):292-297.

    It has become increasingly apparent over the past several decades that there is a growing tension between two seemingly irreconcilable trends. On one hand, moderate-to-conservative demographic projections indicate that global human numbers will almost certainly reach 9 billion (or more) by the mid-to-late 21st century. On the other, prudent and increasingly reliable scientific estimates suggest that the Earth's long-term sustainable carrying capacity (at what might be defined as an "adequate to comfortable" standard of living) may not be much greater than 2--3 billion. (excerpt)
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  2. 2
    Peer Reviewed

    Energy and sociality in human populations.

    Cabrera S; Fuster V

    Social Biology. 2002 Spring-Summer; 49(1):1-12.

    In order to characterize and define human populations from a thermodynamic point of view, and considering that human societies are complex systems whose global description can be obtained by their energetic balance, the relationship was evaluated between individual energy consumption and the demographic and social-economic variables in all provinces of Spain. Pearson bivariate correlation, lineal regression analysis, and the coefficient of determination were applied. The results obtained show that individual energy consumption is associated with almost all the variables considered, in provinces with fewer than 400,000 inhabitants. However, in provinces having a population larger than 400,000,the association is reduced to about 50 percent. The positive or negative association between individual energy consumption and certain variables, especially those that determine reproductive success, suggests that the consumption of energy is explained both by the irreversible thermodynamics in relatively small populations and by the optimization principle in relatively large populations. (author's)
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  3. 3

    Trends and opportunities abroad, 1987: an annual special publication of International Demographics.

    American Demographics

    INTERNATIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS. 1986 Dec; 5(12):i-x, 1-217.

    To facilitate understanding of the consumer market potential of today's world, "International Demographics" clusters the world's 150 largest countries based on their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The names of the 5 clusters--The Dependents, The Seekers, The Climbers, The Ultimate Consumers, and The Rocking Chairs--help identify the kind of consumer markets the countries represent. The 150 countries included in this 1987 volume are considered potential markets and are organized by cluster. All data cited are the most current numbers available, and all population estimates are the latest projections by the Center for International Research, US Census Bureau. Population trends of the next 14 years will change existing markets, and open new markets. However, due to rapid population growth in the poorest of the world economy, the Dependent countries, only intensified efforts on the part of the countries themselves and increased assistance from the international development community can pull these countries up. The sheer size of the market in Seeker and Climber countries is sufficient to indicate increased consumer demand. Add to that increasing income, the predominance of youth, and the ongoing rural-to-urban shift, and it is clear that demand will center on consumer durables for beginning families as the large proportions of youth will center on consumer durables for beginning families as the large proportions of youth enter their prime spending years of 15-64. Construction, sanitation, power, telecommunications, and transport are expected to boom as youth add pressure to urban job markets and housing. Slowed or stagnated growth in the rapidly aging Ultimate Consumer and Rocking Chair countries tells a different story. Some Rocking Chair countries such as West Germany already are experiencing natural decrease. Market growth in the Ultimate Consumer and Rocking Chair countries is geared to the increasingly sophisticated tastes and needs of the elderly rather than to an increase in numbers. 4 demographic factors help identify market potential--the average annual population growth rate, the average number of lifetime births per woman, the status of women, and urbanization. Countries not currently considered good potential markets are growing very rapidly at an average population growth rate of 2.5% or more and will continue to do so. The status of women is low, and the urban population is concentrated in 1 city. countries with good market potential are growing more slowly, at a rate of 1.5-2.5% a year. Fertility is under control, the status of women is improving, and urbanization is spread throughout the country.
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  4. 4

    Consumption, population, and sustainability: perspectives from science and religion.

    Chapman AR; Petersen RL; Smith-Moran B

    Washington, D.C., Island Press, 2000. xi, 355 p.

    An outgrowth of a conference organized in November 1995 by the Boston Theological Institute and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, this book provides a history of the dialogue between science and religion on environmental issues. It comprises essays that reflect a diversity of perspectives of the interrelated issues on population pressure, consumption patterns, and environmental sustainability. It is organized into five parts: 1) introduction, 2) scientific perspectives, 3) religious and theological perspectives, 4) ethics and public policy issues, and 5) conclusions.
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  5. 5

    U.S. scorecard.

    United Nations

    [New York, New York], United Nations, 1998 Dec. [2] p. (1999 Global Population. The Facts of Life)

    This article focuses on the population dynamics of the US. As of November 1998, the US population has reached 274 million, which is considered to be the third-highest in the world, next to China with 1.2 billion and India with 982.2 million. A census conducted in mid-1999 revealed that the US rate of natural increase is 0.6%, with US legal immigrants potentially numbering 820,000 in 1999. Furthermore, it was observed that the US fertility rate (average number of birth per woman) is 1.96, highest of all industrialized nations. In addition, US life expectancy is 73.4 years for men and 80.1 years for women, compared with the global average life for men of 63.4 years and 67.7 years for women. Infant mortality rate is 7 deaths per 1000 live births (compared with the world average of 57/1000)--higher than that in 14 other industrialized countries. These growth rates are declining, although UN estimates that the US population will increase to 332.5 million by 2025, with global humanity numbering 8.039 billion, which is about 360 million less than estimates made 5 years ago.
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  6. 6

    Beyond Malthus: sixteen dimensions of the population problem.

    Brown LR; Gardner G; Halweil B

    Washington, D.C., Worldwatch Institute, 1998 Sep. 89 p. (Worldwatch Paper No. 143)

    This study looks at 16 dimensions or effects of population growth in order to gain a better perspective on how future population trends are likely to affect the human prospect. The evidence gathered here indicates that the rapid population growth prevailing in a majority of the world's countries is not going to continue much longer. Either countries will get their act together, shifting quickly to smaller families, or death rates will rise from one or more [stresses such as AIDS, ethnic conflicts, or water shortages]. The sixteen topics are grain production, fresh water, biodiversity, climate change, oceanic fish catch, jobs, cropland, forests, housing, energy, urbanization, natural recreation areas, education, waste, meat production, and income. (EXCERPT)
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  7. 7

    Aging, intergenerational distribution and public pension systems.

    Jensen SE; Nielsen SB

    PUBLIC FINANCE/FINANCES PUBLIQUES. 1993; 48, Suppl.:29-42.

    This paper develops an intertemporal simulation model capable of addressing the macroeconomic and distributional effects of demographic shocks in a small open economy. Two sources of population aging are examined, viz. lower birth rates and prolonged expected lifetimes at retirement age. Due to strong expectational effects, both shocks are found to change average consumption in a downward direction, in the short run as well as in the long run. This effect is matched by a strong net acquisition of foreign assets. Furthermore, it turns out that the intergenerational distribution of the burden of adjusting to an aging population is strongly dependent on whether the benefit rate, the contribution rate, or the relative non-capital income of pensioners and workers is held fixed. (EXCERPT)
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  8. 8

    Population, environment, and development: interactions and issues.

    Reidhead PW; Qureshy LF; Narain V

    In: Population, environment, and development, edited by R. K. Pachauri and Lubina F. Qureshy. New Delhi, India, Tata Energy Research Institute [TERI], 1997. 45-68.

    The authors discuss ways of achieving sustainable development given the constraints imposed by population and the environment. Aspects considered include poverty and environment, urbanization and migration, food security, consumption and the North-South debate, and policy suggestions. (ANNOTATION)
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  9. 9

    Dynamics of demographic development and its impact on personal saving: case of Japan.

    Ando A; Moro A; Cordoba JP; Garland G

    RICERCHE ECONOMICHE. 1995 Sep; 49(3):179-205.

    A dynamic model of the demographic structure of Japan is summarized. It is capable of tracing the dynamic development of the Japanese population, including the distribution of families by age, sex, and marital status of the head, as well as by the number and age of children and other dependents. This model is combined with specification of the processes generating family income and consumption, and then used to generate the pattern of aggregate income, saving and asset accumulation for the period 1985-2050 under alternative fertility assumptions. The results suggest that the saving-income ratio for Japan will increase slightly in the immediate future as the number of children per family declines sharply, and then falls moderately as the proportion of older persons in the population increases. Qualitative results depend critically on the labour force participation rate of older persons and on the probability of older persons merging into younger households. (EXCERPT)
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  10. 10

    [Demography and planning] Demografia e planejamento.

    de Souza GA; Szmrecsanyi T

    In: Dinamica da populacao: teoria, metodos e tecnicas de analise, [compiled by] Jair L.F. Santos, Maria Stella Ferreira Levy, Tamas Szmrecsanyi. Sao Paulo, Brazil, T.A. Queiroz, 1980. 311-5.

    Population is the sum of producers and consumers. There is a relationship of mutual dependence between demographic and socioeconomic variables. The capacity for production or effective production in a society does not only depend on the population, but it also determines the number of producers. They depend to a great degree on the means of production and on the productivity of the work force. Population represents only an approximation for gauging the dimensions of a consumer society. The effective demand for goods and services depends less on the number of inhabitants than on the level and profile of distribution of income. The size, the increase, the age composition, and spatial distribution of population provide data of fundamental importance for planning, mainly through demographic analysis and population studies. Information is used to produce models for planning, for the systematization of decisions in regional, sectoral, or isolated projects. Planning starts with diagnosis which, for instance, not only indicates whether the population is increasing, concentrating in urban areas, and the labor force is becoming younger, but also the components of population dynamics: fertility, mortality, and migrations. These data have to utilized optimally because of the lack of time and the high cost of research. Historical trends and projection into the future are carried out on the basis of such data concerning the increase of population and hypothesis about trends. Development policy constitutes the elaboration of plans by choosing quantitative objectives for accurate economic forecasting, while taking into consideration its interaction with demographic indicators, such as the infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth.
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  11. 11

    Dynamics of population growth: implications for environment and quality of life.

    Panandiker VA

    [Unpublished] 1990. Presented at the Population-Environment Dynamics Symposium, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, October 1-3, 1990. 26 p.

    Basic issues and problems involved in India's population growth, the environment, and the quality of life are identified. India is a populous country (16.5% of the world's population). The nature of the population problem is a growth rate of 2.4%/year. The target for India is to reach NRR-1 by 2000 with a birth rate of 21/1000 and a death rate of 7, which is impossible when in 1990 the birth rate was 31 and the death rate 11/1000. Population growth affects 1) agricultural production, 2) the environment, and 3) the quality of life. Agricultural production increased 333% between 1950 and 1990 while population increased 240%, which reduced the need for imported foodgrains. India's share of the world's arable land is 12% and the share of population is 16%. Yields are low compared with China or Southeast Asia. The Indo-Gangetic Plains have the potential for satisfying carrying capacity. Environmental problems result not just from agricultural practices but also from the patterns of consumption of developed countries and domestic development policies. The 1990 development plan supplies a hopeful approach toward development which promotes ecological balance and conservation and regeneration of natural resources. However, increased agricultural production means intensive use of fertilizers, pesticides, and soil degradation which impact on the environment, as evidenced in the Punjab and Haryana. Currently estimates of damaged or unusable land amount to 60% of available agricultural land. Loss from flooding affects 795 million people. Water logging and salinity are also affected by agricultural development due to inadequate drainage. The implications of population growth on the environment are dwarfed by the pressing political problems of food and employment. Environmental pressure groups are forming. Poverty is a serious problem particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar with >50% of the population below the poverty line. Population pressure strains resources such as education where planned growth still would leave 30% illiterate by the year 2000, and the costs would take a large share of the national budget. Availability of water, health care, housing, and clothing pose similar problems. The concern is whether upheaval will accompany the changes and whether poverty and other problems can be resolved satisfactorily.
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  12. 12
    Peer Reviewed

    On fuelwood consumption, population dynamics and deforestation in Africa.

    Cline-Cole RA; Main HA; Nichol JE

    WORLD DEVELOPMENT. 1990 Apr; 18(4):513-27.

    As the literature on fuelwood in Africa has increased in quality over the recent past, it has become evident that generalizations about Africa's fuelwood crisis must be treated with great caution. As a consequence, some commonly held beliefs may now need to be reexamined. This paper subjects 3 such beliefs, the existence of a linear relationship between population growth, fuelwood consumption, and rates of fuelwood-induced deforestation; that fuelwood-induced deforestation approximates ripples spreading outward from urban consuming centers; and that land conversion to agriculture always reduces fuelwood supplies, to close scrutiny. The 2nd and 3rd assumptions are analyzed in light of recently collected field data in the Kano area of northern Nigeria; while the examination of the 1st is based on a reinterpretation of information from a wider range of environments. The paper concludes that although available data are inadequate for definitive conclusions to be drawn on the 1st count, it seems likely that variations arising out of demographic differentials in urban populations, in particular, changes in per capita fuelwood consumption resulting from changes in consuming unit size, distort direct links between population growth rates and rates of increase in fuel consumption. Further information on the demographic characteristics of African towns is needed for meaningful analyses of temporal changes in the affected variables to be undertaken. The 2nd and 3rd assumptions are found to not be applicable in the Kano case. However, this should be interpreted much less as justification for their outright rejection than as a reminder of the great potential of time- and space-specific considerations for rendering universal rules locally inapplicable. (author's)
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  13. 13

    Population growth and its implications.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Secretariat

    In: Population policies and programmes: current status and future directions, [compiled by] United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. 17-26. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 84; ST/ESCAP/563)

    Concentrating upon the Asian and Pacific region, this paper considers the consequences of rapid population growth. Already the world's most densely populated area, 1987 population projections predict the region to account for 56% of the world's 5 billion inhabitants. While annual growth rates for the region are expected to decline for the period 1985-2000, absolute population increase will, nonetheless, be greater than during the previous 15-year period, contributing 53% to overall world population growth. Future fertility declines are not expected to be as marked as observed during the previous decade. Changing age structure combined with the size and proportion of the population of women of child-bearing age will contribute to an impending baby boom. National family planning programs need to be expanded and strengthened to combat such future trends. Planning for production, consumption, investment, and distribution should also reflect age structure dynamics. Life expectancy at birth remains below levels representative of more developed regions, suggesting room for further strides against mortality-related conditions in the region. Industrialization and modernization should, however, play roles in changing mortality patterns. A lack of reliable data is recognized, as is concern over demographic aging soon to be faced by many countries of the region.
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  14. 14

    Japan's dilemma: how to cope with an aging population.

    Molony K

    U.S. LONG-TERM REVIEW. 1988 Winter; 10-5.

    Future demographic trends in Japan are reviewed, with an emphasis on demographic aging. "It is clear the aging of its population will have an impact on Japan's labor practices, saving and consumption patterns, and demand for public and private resources." The author concludes that "given Japan's past experience in adapting to all types of adversity...its response to demographic shifts will likely enable it to continue its remarkable economic growth." (EXCERPT)
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  15. 15

    Population growth and food: an assessment of issues, models, and projections.

    Srinivasan TN

    In: Population, food and rural development, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, Allen C. Kelley, Gerry Rodgers, and T. N. Srinivasan. Oxford, England, Clarendon Press, 1988. 11-47. (International Studies in Demography)

    Using 1984 data from the World Bank for "projected increases in population and per capita income until the year 2000 [the paper first] examines whether the global food economy can generate enough supplies to avoid a sustained increase in the relative price of food that otherwise would have to occur to bring about a balance between supply and demand....Second, it analyses the likely impact of exogenous reduction in rate of growth of population on the food consumption and energy intake of the poor. Finally, it assesses the strengths and weaknesses of some recent models of the world food economy. In particular, a model of the Indian economy is used to assess the impact of alternative assumptions regarding the growth of Indian population until the year 2000." Comments by Hans Linnemann are included (pp. 40-7). (EXCERPT)
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  16. 16

    [Luxembourg statistical yearbook 1987/88] Annuaire statistique de Luxembourg 1987/88.

    Luxembourg. Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [STATEC]

    Luxembourg, STATEC, 1987 Dec. xx, 529 p.

    The 1987/88 Statistical Yearbook of Luxembourg contains data on a wide variety of topics organized into 23 chapters with data on economic and noneconomic topics specific to Luxembourg and a final chapter with a series of international comparisons. Each of the chapters and many of the tables and graphs contain introductory notes and explanations. The work opens with a listing of basic statistics followed by chapters on territory and climate and on population. The chapter on population includes subsections on evolution of the total population, the active population, natural movement of the population, migratory movement, and housing and households. The major section on economic statistics includes chapters on national accounts, agriculture and forestry, industry, artisanry, services, banks and credit, public finances, income and social security, consumption and prices, research and external economic relations. The section on noneconomic statistics includes chapters on accidents, anthropometry, culture and education, environment, justice, names and surnames of the national population, politics, religion, health, and sports.
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  17. 17
    Peer Reviewed

    A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility.

    Becker GS; Barro RJ

    QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS. 1988 Feb; 103(1):1-25.

    An economic analysis of the linkages in fertility rates and capital accumulation across generations is developed, considering the determination of fertility and capital accumulation in each generation when wage rates and interest rates are parameters to each family and to open economies. The model is based on the assumption that parents are altruistic toward their children. The utility of parents depends on their own consumption and on the utility of each child and the number of children. By relating the utility of children to their own consumption and to the utility of their children, a dynastic utility function was obtained that depends on the consumption and number of descendants in all generations. The term "reformulation" was used because of the emphasis on dynastic utility model of altruism toward children and deriving the budget constraint and utility function of a dynastic family, the model was applied to the Great Depression and World War II. The 1st-order conditions to maximize utility imply that fertility in any generation depends positively on the real interest rate and the degree of altruism and negatively on the rate of growth in per capita consumption from 1 generation to the next. Consumption of each descendant depends positively on the net cost of rearing a desdendant. Applying the model, it is shown that the analysis is consistent with baby busts during the Depression and the war and with a baby boom after the war. The effects on fertility of child mortality, subsidies to (or taxes on) children, and social security and other transfer payments to adults were considered. The demand for surviving children rises during the transition to low child mortality, but demand for survivors return to its prior level once mortality stabilizes at a low level. Fertility falls in response to declines in international real interest rates and increases in an economy's rate of technological progress. Extending the analysis to include life-cycle variations in consumption, earnings, and utility, fertility emerges as a function of expenditures on the subsistence and human capital of children but not of expenditures that simply raise the consumption of children. The path of aggregate consumption in demographic steady states does not depend on interest rates, time preference, or other determinants of life-cycle variations in consumption.
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  18. 18

    The water crisis and population. [Pamphlet collection].

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO]

    [Rome, Italy], FAO, [1986]. vi, [126] p.

    The dimensions of the water crisis and its implications for the population of the world is the subject of a 4-pamphlet packet distributed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Part 1 relates legends about water and details the role of water in human history. Rapid population growth and its detrimental effects on water conservation and the environmental balance are explained. Recognition of the population growth problem is urged, with government-backed family planning programs recommended. Part 2 gives a detailed explanation of the life cycle and its dependence on soil and water. Climate, vegetation, and types of water are examined in relation to their role in the distribution of available water resources. Future water resources and demand are projected for agriculture, industry, and domestic use. The disruption of the balance between man and water and the problem of water pollution are addressed, as are deforestation, desertification, drought, and the greenhouse effect. Part 3 offers a view of inland waters and agriculture, with a history of irrigation and the role of irrigation today. Rural water, its use, sources, storage, and collection are examined in relation to work distribution, family size, and sanitation. Problems arising from unsafe water supplies, including disease, infection, and malnutrition are discussed, and examples are given of small-scale projects that have successfully addressed these problems. The final section deals with water and the future. A continuing effort at water and land conservation, as well as surface water and ground water management, is urged. Irrigation planning and supporting systems, such as terracing, fallowing, and improved cropping patterns, are presented as further management techniques. Preserving existing resources, lifting, various kinds of wells, new storage methods and purification systems, are suggested to increase domestic water conservation. Examples of water projects in Africa, Asia, and the South Pacific are presented. Finally, population management and its crucial role in future water resources allocation, conservation, and distribution, is provided.
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  19. 19

    Interaction between macro-economic activities and demographic changes in selected developing countries.

    Bhattacharyya D

    Leicester, England, University of Leicester, Department of Economics, 1987 Oct. 26 p. (Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 66)

    The author analyzes the relationship between population and economic development in developing countries using a macro-level model and short-term time-series data. The variables considered are consumption expenditure, investment expenditure, national income, and population; the countries examined are India, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic, with the United Kingdom as a control. The time period covered is 1964-1980. The results show little support for Malthusian theory and only partial support for alternative theories asserting that population growth is associated with technological progress.
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  20. 20

    The demographic and social consequences of demographic aging.

    Tabah L

    In: Economic and social implications of population aging: proceedings of the International Symposium on Population Structure and Development, Tokyo, 10-12 September 1987. New York, New York, United Nations, 1988. 121-44. (ST/ESA/SER.R/85.)

    Demographic projections for the majority of the industrial countries show that the proportion of persons of working age (15-59 or 15-64) in the total population will be higher in 2000 than it was in 1980. But after the beginning of the next century, in all the industrial countries except Ireland, there will be a gradual reduction in the proportion of persons of working age. The projections show that the deterioration in the ratio of persons aged 20-59 to those ages 60 and over will be felt gradually at first, owing to the baby boom, but that it will speed up from 2005. According to the majority of experts, the aging of the active population will have the effect of restraining the structural plasticity of the economy by slowing down necessary changes and mobility between sectors, and will produce an increase in wage and non-wage costs. Aging produces a slow decline in the consumption of goods and services associated with childhood and a slow increase in the consumption of certain goods and services connected with advancing age (leisure, health care, dietary products). Demographic aging has an effect on the quality of savings, which will tend to be more cautious and directed more towards prudent investments than towards investments in the modernization of the productive apparatus, which are not immediately profitable and contain risks. With the increase in life expectancy, the age of inheritance is constantly rising. The increasingly late passing-on of legacies does not facilitate the modernization of enterprises. The majority of retirement schemes have not yet reached maturity. Many pensioners have not contributed for the period required for a full pension, especially women. Increasingly, the rich countries are finding that they have a number of economic and social problems in common. In the rich countries, there is universal concern about the structural rigidity which aging creates and exacerbates in production and about the future financial balance of the retirement systems, which are seen to be under serious threat at a time when, paradoxically, the economic, social, and health situation of old people has never been better.
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  21. 21

    Spread of smoking to the developing countries.

    Tominaga S

    In: Tobacco: a major international health hazard. Proceedings of an international meeting organized by the IARC and co-sponsored by the All-Union Cancer Research Centre of the Academy of Medical Sciences of the USSR, Moscow, USSR, held in Moscow, 4-6 June 1985, [edited by] D.G. Zaridze, R. Peto. Lyon, France, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 1986. 125-33. (IARC Scientific Publications No. 74)

    In most developing countries, tobacco consumption has been relatively low in the past. It has been increasing in recent years as developed countries have exported more cigarettes to developing countries, and as developing countries have cultivated more tobacco themselves to produce cheaper tobacco, at the sacrifice of food production. Tobacco sales are an important source of revenue for governments in the developing countries as in the developed countries. The spread of smoking to developing countries and the increase in tobacco consumption have had several adverse effects: an increase in lung cancer and other smoking-related diseases; an increase in economic burdens resulting from imports of cigarettes from developed countries and increased medical costs for smoking-related diseases; and decreases in production and import of foods. There are many obstacles and constraints to smoking control in the developing countries, but smoking control is badly needed to prevent lung cancer and other smoking-related diseases, to alleviate economic burdens, and to increase the production and import of foods. (author's)
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  22. 22
    Peer Reviewed

    Population dynamics and consumer demand.

    Ketkar KW; Ketkar SL

    APPLIED ECONOMICS. 1987 Nov; 19(11):1,483-95.

    The authors analyze the effects on consumption in the United States of 11 demographic variables, including "regional location and the urban/rural base of the household, its age, size, race, sex and marital characteristics, and the education and the employment status of the household head and the spouse." Data are from the 1972-1973 Consumer Expenditure Survey. The expenditure functions are first specified, followed by descriptions of the data sources and the empirical estimates of expenditure functions for various items of consumption spending. (EXCERPT)
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  23. 23

    The evolving food situation.

    Paulino LA

    In: Accelerating food production in Sub-Saharan Africa, edited by John W. Mellor, Christopher L. Delgado and Malcolm J. Blackie. Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1987. 23-38.

    Over the past 2 decades, of all the major regions of the Third World, sub-Saharan Africa has had the most rapid growth of population and the slowest growth of food output. Food production growth has depended more on growth in crop area and labor force and much less on yield increase and modern inputs compared to other parts of the world. Per capita food performance was particularly poor in West Africa, which accounts for nearly half of both the people and the production of basic food staples of sub-Saharan Africa. Self-sufficiency in food is a rare phenomenon in Africa. Based on UN projections, population growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa will further accelerate in more than 60% of the countries, and the regional rate will substantially exceed 3% per year for the period 1980-2000. The proportion of the total population in the agricultural labor force decreased 5%, reaching 30% by the late 1970s. This decline requires either increased labor productivity in agriculture, decreased per capita consumption, or large increases in imports. Of course it is the latter that has ruled in Africa. The 2 relatively bright spots in food production were maize and rice. Millet and sorghum were the poor performers. The output of groundnuts in West Africa declined drastically by about 2% per year. About 80% of the growth in production of basic food staples in sub-Saharan Africa during the past 2 decades arose from an average increase of 1.4% a year in harvest area. During 1966-1980, total domestic utilization of basic food staples in sub-Saharan Africa increased an average of 2.2% a year. Food projections to the year 2000 suggest that filling the projected gap of basic food staples in sub-Saharan Africa from domestic production would require more than twice the 1.8% annual growth rate of 1961-1980. Such a rate is unlikely to be achieved. The data suggest the need for 1) radical acceleration in the growth rate for the inputs to modern agriculture; 2) a special problem of accelerating growth in West Africa; 3) a major role for maize and rice in future production growth; 4) and a major improvement in sorghum and millet production.
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  24. 24

    Numerical declines and older age structures in European populations: an alternative perspective.

    Day LH

    Family Planning Perspectives. 1988 May-Jun; 20(3):139-43.

    The issues surrounding fertility decline and demographic aging in Europe are discussed. The author asserts that "the numerical declines and older age structures anticipated offer two potential benefits: First, a period of lessened pressure from population growth could improved quality of life by bringing consumption patterns into better alignment with ecological reality. Second..., a shift in age structure could possibly result in reduced demands on resources and could, in fact, provide less support for the general ethic of economic growth itself." (EXCERPT)
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  25. 25

    The Cosmopolitan report: the changing life course of American women, part three: consumer behavior.

    McLaughlin SD; Zimmerle DM

    New York, New York, Cosmopolitan, 1987. xv, 316 p.

    Volume III of the COSMOPOLITAN REPORT first reviews the major conclusions of volume I (demographic change) and II (changes in attitudes, values, and lifestyles) and then discusses the likely implications of those conclusions for consumer behavior. The economic context within which the changing role of women as consumers has taken place includes changes in 1) the characteristics of working women, 2) their occupational distribution, and 3) women's earnings relative to men's. Chapter 1 introduces the volume, and chapter 2 outlines the economic context. Chapter 3 presents the methods used to describe changes in consumer behavior and the application of the life-cycle-stage distribution to the projection of women's demand for products and services. Chapter 4 reviews changes in women's consumption of media--magazines read and television half-hours viewed. Chapter 5 examines the segmentation of the automotive market and includes projections of the number of female principal drivers of domestic and imported cars bought new in the past 4 years. Chapter 6 looks at changes in the cosmetics market--consumption of hair coloring, facial moisturizer, make up, and fragrance. Chapter 7 considers women and the travel industry--changes in the use of air travel. Chapter 8 reviews the participation of women in active sports and the purchase of active sportswear. Chapter 9 examines changing patterns of food purchasing--major and fill-in food shopping and dining out in low-cost restaurants. Chapter 10 surveys participation in public activities and membership in organizations. Chapter 11 summarizes the primary woman as consumer, the aging of the US consumer, and individual characteristics as predictors of consumption.
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