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  1. 1

    Liquid assets: How demographic changes and water management policies affect freshwater resources.

    Boberg J

    Santa Monica, California, RAND, 2005. [150] p.

    Demographic factors play an important role in environmental change, along with biophysical, economic, sociopolitical, technological, and cultural factors, all of which are interrelated. Recent demographic trends have sparked concern about the impact of the human population on a critical element of the natural environment - fresh water. In the last 70 years, the world's population has tripled in size while going from overwhelmingly rural to a near balance of urban and rural - a change that affects both how humans use water and the amount they consume. In the late 1980s, concern over a potential water crisis began to grow. Much of the resulting literature has taken an alarmist view. Numerous reports sensationalized the so-called water crisis without talking into account the local or regional nature of water resources and the relationship between supply and demand. A number of factors are cited to support the position that the earth is headed toward a water crisis. They include the following: the human population continues to grow; water withdrawals are outpacing population growth; per-capita water availability is declining; clean, potable water is less available worldwide. (excerpt)
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  2. 2
    Peer Reviewed

    Nutrition: the new world disorder.

    Cannon G

    Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 2002; 11 Suppl:S498-S509.

    Scale up 'we are what we eat' and nutrition is revealed as an aspect of world governance. The quality and nature of food systems has always tended to determine not only the health and welfare but also the fate of nations. The independence of nations depends on their development of their own human and natural resources, including food systems, which, if resilient, are indigenous, traditional, or evolved over time to climate, terrain and culture. Rapid adoption of untested or foreign food systems is hazardous not only to health, but also to security and sovereignty. Immediate gain may cause permanent loss. Dietary guidelines that recommend strange foods are liable to disrupt previous established food cultures. Since the 1960s the 'green revolution' has increased crop yield, and has also accelerated the exodus of hundreds of millions of farmers and their families from the land into lives of misery in mega-cities. This is a root cause of increased global inequity, instability and violence. 'Free trade' of food, in which value is determined by price, is imposed by dominant governments in alliance with industry when they believe they can thereby control the markets. The World Trade Organization and other agencies coordinate the work of transnational corporations that are the modern equivalents of the East India companies. Scientists should consider the wider dimensions of their work, nutrition scientists not least, because of the key place of food systems in all societies. (author's)
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  3. 3

    Policy statement on population and the environment.

    Social Science Research Council [SSRC]; International Social Science Council [ISSC]; Development Alternatives with Women for a New Era [DAWN]

    FOCUS ON GENDER. 1993 Feb; 1(1):22-3.

    Inequalities in distribution of wealth, uneven use and distribution of resources, and human settlement patterns contribute more to environmental degradation than does population size. Current global economic strategies and policy decisions affect population and the natural environment. Large-scale technology and communications, the globalization of capital, subordination within world markets, and increasing consumption levels have broken down livelihoods and the environment. Therefore, contrary to popular opinion, population growth is not the key variable in environmental degradation. The erosion of livelihoods really affect women, especially poor women. Legal and political rights, women's economic independence, education, health, access to reproductive health services, and improved child survival greatly influence fertility decline. The disintegration of women's livelihoods restricts their access to health services and education. We cannot depend on capitalism to protect our livelihoods or the health of the environment. So nongovernmental organizations, international agencies, and national and local governments must do so. Assessments of intensive agriculture, industries destroying the social and physical environment, and military activities are critically needed. We need to reassess the macroeconomic forces affecting the natural environment and livelihoods of the poor. Communities should influence and demand policies and regulations preserving their access to resources. Women must participate more intensely in decision making. They should have access to key services. Citizens should have more access to information on environmental damage of industrialized products and processes. All of us need to advocate for more environmentally sound and sustainable forms of development and technology. People at the local, national, and global levels must work to change values that have caused overconsumption, thereby promoting a new ethic centering on caring for people and the environment.
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  4. 4

    Consumption, population, and sustainability: perspectives from science and religion.

    Chapman AR; Petersen RL; Smith-Moran B

    Washington, D.C., Island Press, 2000. xi, 355 p.

    An outgrowth of a conference organized in November 1995 by the Boston Theological Institute and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, this book provides a history of the dialogue between science and religion on environmental issues. It comprises essays that reflect a diversity of perspectives of the interrelated issues on population pressure, consumption patterns, and environmental sustainability. It is organized into five parts: 1) introduction, 2) scientific perspectives, 3) religious and theological perspectives, 4) ethics and public policy issues, and 5) conclusions.
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  5. 5

    Beyond the numbers: a reader on population, consumption, and the environment.

    Mazur LA

    Washington, D.C., Island Press, 1994. xvi, 444 p.

    This book is a compilation of essays and articles written by activists, academics, and policy-makers on the issues of population and environment. It aims to illuminate the contours of complex population and environment issues and to explore areas of debate beyond the polarized extremes. These debates and controversies focus on population, consumption and the environment. The book is organized into sections. Section I discusses population, consumption, development and the environment. Articles under this section examine the relationship between the issues mentioned. Section II highlights population growth and structure, with an article entitled Population by the Numbers: Trends in Population Growth. Section III emphasizes history and analysis of population and family planning programs. Articles presented focuses on the international family planning movement, political assistance and policies. Section IV talks about population policy, reproductive health and reproductive rights. Section V considers population, gender and culture. Section VI focuses on population and religion. The essays collected in this book put forth a bold vision of humane, effective population policies for the 21st century.
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  6. 6

    Characteristics of the international rice market and the new equitable and sustainable rule for international trade of rice and food.

    Ali DH; Tsujii H

    In: The Fourteenth Asian Parliamentarians' Meeting on Population and Development, April 4-5 1998, New Delhi, India, [compiled by] Asian Population and Development Association. [Tokyo, Japan], Asian Population and Development Association, 1998. 107-20.

    This paper proposes a new equitable and sustainable international trade rule and agricultural policy on rice and agricultural products for Asian countries. A new trade rule is the necessary modification of the free trade that has strongly influenced the recent international trade negotiations on agricultural products from Asia's viewpoint. The presentation involves these topics: 1) concentration of rice production and consumption in Asia and self-sufficiency; 2) the thin, unstable, and unreliable international rice trade market; 3) self-sufficiency as an important market principle and policy goal; 4) the important national policy objective of domestic rice price and supply stabilization; 5) the mutually enforcing relationship between rice self-sufficiency policy and thin international rice trade market; 6) the rule of the benefit of free trade; 7) the nonexistence of a reliable and relatively stable international rice trade market; 8) the oligopolistic international rice trade market; 9) the crisis for Asia's poor and hungry caused by the liberalization of rice trade; and 10) the reduction in the value of externalities to the Asian people caused by rice trade liberalization. Rice is a necessity, the wage goods, the grain of life and the political goods in the developing Asian countries. About 90% of the world production and consumption of rice is concentrated in Asia. In order to maintain stabilization of domestic price and supply of rice, most Asian countries have pursued a rice self-sufficiency and stabilization policy.
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  7. 7

    Taking population out of the equation: reformulating I=PAT.

    Hynes HP

    North Amherst, Massachusetts, Institute on Women and Technology, 1993. iv, 59 p.

    This book presents a reformulation of the population/environment formula known as I = PAT, where "I" is human impact on the environment, "P" is population size, "A" is goods consumed per capita, and "T" is pollution generated by technology per good consumed. The introduction describes the formula and its attractiveness. The next section explains that the formula is so entrenched that critics and advocates debate its merits from a position within its argot. Feminists, on the other hand, would reform I = PAT to add key structural factors that reflect elements of social and environmental justice. The book continues by critically analyzing each factor in the equation and then offering corrections that 1) separate survival consumption from luxury consumption; 2) introduce a factor to account for military pollution; 3) introduce the element of environmental conservation; and 4) account for human agency. The new formula would be I = C - PAT, where "I" is human impact, "C" is conservation, "P" is patriarchy, "A" is consumption shaped by economic realities, and "T" is environmentally injurious technology. It is recommended 1) that women's health and environmental organizations replace the population framework with the feminist framework, introduce agency, educate women and men, and redirect contraceptive technology and research and 2) that environmental organizations teach ecological literacy, examine consumption, and support grassroots and urban environmentalism.
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  8. 8

    Food and nutritional adequacy in Ghana.

    Alderman H; Higgins P

    Washington, D.C., Cornell Food and Nutrition Policy Program, 1992 May. vii, 61 p. (Working Paper 27; USAID Cooperative Agreement AFR-000-A-0-8045-00)

    The Cornell Food and Nutrition Policy Program analyzed data from the 1987-1988 Ghana Living Standards Survey to examine levels and composition of food sources in different areas of Ghana and to introduce these observations into the context of food and nutrition policy in Ghana. The researchers focused on food consumption rather than nutrition. Even though there was considerable substitution between commodities, grain prices determined calorie availability at the household level, especially in the savannah zone where prices of millet, sorghum, and maize were important. Nationwide, the net effect of an increase in maize price was a reduction in household calories and it was largest in the savannah zone. Increases in cassava prices tended to reduce available calories in forest regions. The price of cassava was almost always lower than grains. Cassava was also available throughout the year. Government programs that improve cassava production or reduce the cost of transport of cassava or the amount of spoilage of cassava will significantly increase household calorie availability. Increases in pest infestations of cassava will reduce food energy availability. A price increase of rice and yams would increase calorie availability because households will substitute these expensive foods with cheaper calorie sources. The Ghanaian diet is diverse. Female-headed households had lower household expenditures and did not allocate more resources to food than male-headed households. Expenditure patterns and low nutrition levels in the savannah accounted for this difference. Various methodological issues may have brought about inaccurate conclusions, however. They are omission of information on the rate of stock utilization; lack of indication of month's price; unfixed recall period; and no data on prices and quantities of purchased goods together. Nevertheless, this study supports the belief that cross-sectional surveys can be used to obtain information on price response.
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  9. 9

    ICPD: in whose interest?

    Shiva M

    HEALTH FOR THE MILLIONS. 1994 Jun; 2(3):4-7.

    The International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) is set for September 1994. Arms control and control of military interests are as crucial as population control. The expenditure on the military and arms should go to social measures and true socioeconomic development. Women are leading the movement against war and towards peace. Women make up 70% of current refugees of ethnic conflicts. The conquest of free trade with little or no restriction and globalization trends forces developing countries to accept nonessential luxury items which tend to be irrational, hazardous consumer articles and technologies from industrialized countries. The privileged elite in developing countries and the industrialized countries overconsume, while the basic needs of the poor majority are not being met. The rich view the poor as a global threat and a threat for environmental degradation. They believe that free trade will solve all problems, yet it only marginalizes the poor and the vulnerable. The pattern of overconsumption is the threat. The poor are characterized as demons responsible for the population explosion. Women are angry that population control policies are attempts to control women's fertility. Specifically, most contraceptive technologies and most family planning programs target women. Male responsibility is ignored. Religious fundamentalists tell women not to become pregnant, not to use contraception, and not to seek abortion, yet they allow male sex behavior, e.g., sexual violence. This attitude leaves women vulnerable to unwanted pregnancies, sexually transmitted diseases, and AIDS. Developing countries should be concerned about chapter III on Population, Environment, and Development in the ICPD text. Most countries, including India, have formed a consensus on this chapter. The Vatican and some Latin American countries have objections, however. The meeting in Cairo will likely continue to promote the view that the fertility of women in developing countries and of women of color must be controlled.
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  10. 10

    Public policy and anthropometric outcomes in Cote d'Ivoire.

    Thomas D; Lavy V; Strauss J

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1992. ix, 39 p. (LSMS: Living Standards Measurement Study Working Paper No. 89)

    Cote d'Ivoire suffered low economic growth rates in the 1980s which were accompanied by an economic adjustment program including substantial cuts in public spending together with increases in the relative price of foods. Controlling for household resources, the authors analyze indicators of child and adult health status to learn of the impact effected by this policy and related macroeconomic changes. Specifically, they examine height for age and weight for height of children as well as body mass index of adults as determined from survey data. The indicators suggest that the adjustment policy and related measures directly affect the health of Ivorians, especially children. While increasing food prices domestically to be in line with world prices may lead to a more efficient allocation of resources, higher prices in the short run will likely adversely affect Ivorian health as measured by weight for height among children and body mass index among adults. Very large increases in income are needed to offset the negative effects of higher food prices at least in the case of child health.
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  11. 11

    Energy issues and opportunities.

    Reddy AK

    In: The global possible: resources, development, and the new century, edited by Robert Repetto. New Haven, Connecticut, Yale University Press, 1985. 363-95. (World Resources Institute Book)

    Policymakers in developing countries must orient environmentally sound energy strategies toward their needs so that they rely only on themselves for those needs. Policymakers in developed countries should make their energy strategies be economically stable, environmentally safe, and strategically secure. The domination of oil worldwide is a relatively recent occurrence. In 1973, the oil exporting countries imposed an embargo which raised oil prices, caused an oil scarcity, and panicked oil markets. This forced many developed nations to cut back on oil consumption but oil resources will still deplete. People in developing countries depend on fuelwood which they are depleting rapidly. Oil prices exclude most of the population here. This results in deforestation, erosion, and desertification in developing countries. Nuclear power is an energy source that poses concerns over reactor safety and radioactive waste disposal in developed countries. Fossil fuel use degrades the planet. Vital interests of developed countries in outside territories make for global insecurity and a threat of nuclear war. This condition results in nuclear weapons proliferation. Thus they need to lessen their dependence on foreign oil and develop their own energy sources. Yet energy is needed now to grow and to distribute crops to stave off malnutrition. To reduce energy demands, population growth must slow down, but energy is needed to stimulate population decline. Thus nations must adopt energy strategies to bring about sustainable development worldwide. These strategies should disassociate energy consumption from gross national product and incorporate improvements in efficiencies of energy end use technologies. National policies must bring energy prices in line with marginal costs to allow markets to work better. Governments should also eliminate subsidies to energy producers. Energy service industries which market conservation technologies and services would also conserve energy. International cooperation is needed to improve energy conservation and cease nuclear proliferation.
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  12. 12

    World food and you.

    Unklesbay N

    Binghamton, New York, Food Products Press, 1992. xv, 444 p.

    The text is an expansive collection of information on everything related to global food production, agricultural production and processing and consumption, nutrition, and current food issues. Global food production includes information on world population and food production, global food production, global food marketing, and global food problems and foreign aid. 1) Global food production is further delineated by discussion about the croplands, changes in agricultural resources, photosynthesis, water resources, the changing atmosphere and its effect on crops, land productivity potential, managing agricultural production, and multiple dimensions of the world food problem. Annual world food production is 4 billion tons for a population of 5.2 billion, but 20% are hungry every day due to differences in production and distribution. Rapid population growth will reduce the productive food land/person by 50% form levels 35 years ago. The view is that new croplands will be expanded to meet the needs and more intensive farming practices bill be employed. New food processing techniques will be invented and adopted. Infrastructure development will contribute to an improvement. A smaller number of farmers will produce more food. 2) Agricultural production is discussed in terms of crop and plant production, animal production (livestock, wildlife, and insects), global fish and shellfish production, food processing industries, and food distribution and consumption and food and energy losses. Rates of food loss vary by country, i.e., 1-8% in the US but 25% in the former Soviet Union. A production value of >1 billion dollars would be derived from a 1% increase n yield. 3) Nutrition and the individual is concerned with the essential human nutrients and the consequences of malnutrition. 4) Current food issues pertain to biotechnology and agricultural production, chemicals in the food supply, global warming, and research, policies, and actions on world food. The appendix identifies career opportunities in international agriculture.
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  13. 13

    A nutrition model for developing nations with special reference to Bangladesh.

    Shams-ur-Rahman; Clarke HR

    BANGLADESH DEVELOPMENT STUDIES. 1991 Sep; 19(3):83-95.

    A linear programming model of nutritional planning, applied to 3 nutrition problems of nutrition planning in 2 villages, Shitalpur and Kulia-Durgapur in southwest Bangladesh is described and results are discussed. The model takes into consideration features identified as affecting nutritional requirements: age and sex, recommended requirements by age and sex, activity level, proportion of lactating women, excess requirement for lactating and pregnant women, and proportion of women pregnant. Other important factors are production of nutrients in the region as affected by assimilable number of nutrients and net yield per acre and number of acres, net usage of nutrients in the region as affected by transfer of crops between regions, and net food import into the region as affected by aid import of food type and exports of food type. Total area of arable land is restriction on production. Consumption = production - net interregional transfers - net foreign trade exports and constraints. It is assumed that any shortfall in domestic production can be met in this supply side analysis. 2 types of policy objectives (self-sufficiency and surplus maximization) are also modeled. The applied model is simplified for the village analysis and the following assumptions are made: there is no trade between villages, transportation cost is not added, and crop yield depends only on land input used in production. The 3 types of nutritional planning problems are that 1) only calorie and protein are considered and arable lands are available year long; 2) calcium and vitamins A, B2, and C (multinutrients) must be met; and 3) inadequate irrigation and flood control technologies limit the amount of land available during the winter and summer months. The Mathematical Programming System and Extension Package (MPSX) was used to solve the simplified model. 8 crops are considered in 10 cropping patterns. The results are that both villages can be net food exporters if all land can be utilized and calorie/protein targets only are the goal. Kulia-Durgapur can achieve nutritional self-sufficiency based on full nutrient intake. With land being used in summer and winter seasons only, only Kulia-Durgapur can achieve nutritional sufficiency and multinutrient food targets. The net value of exports from Kulia-Durgapur is almost equal in value to the net aid requirements of Shitalpur. Multinutrient, objectives affect cropping patterns and shift patterns from cereals to vegetables, and particularly summer vegetables. A policy objective might be set aside a specified amount of arable land for cultivating vegetables.
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  14. 14

    Development, government policy, and fertility regulation in Brazil.

    Faria VE; Potter JE

    Austin, Texas, University of Texas, Texas Population Research Center, 1990. 19, [11] p. (Texas Population Research Center Paper No. 12.02)

    This paper offers a new perspective on the fertility decline in Brazil, and argues that a number of government policies have had substantial unintended and unanticipated effects on the rapid changes in reproductive behavior that have taken place since 1960. The four policy areas we focus on are consumer credit, telecommunications, social security, and health care....We address the question of how Brazilian development yielded values and norms consistent with controlled fertility. We claim to have identified significant institutional changes that had a direct and immediate bearing on the way people thought about sex and reproduction, and that facilitated the massive adoption of modern contraception. Our approach to the role of the state differs from that of most Brazilians in that we focus on the unintended effects of real policies rather than the intended effects of a non-policy....[Data are from] the 1980 Northeastern Brazil Survey of Maternal Child Health/Family Planning.... This paper was originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 400).
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  15. 15

    The tragedy of the commons that wasn't: on technical solutions to the institutions game.

    Dahlman CJ

    POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT. 1991 Spring; 12(3):285-96.

    The author uses Garrett Hardin's thesis concerning population growth and land ownership and their effects on natural resources as a basis for discussing the sociopolitical background determining resource use and conservation. The need for institutions and governments to enact policies that address population and energy problems is stressed. (ANNOTATION)
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  16. 16

    Planetary warming: realities and responses.

    Smil V

    POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1990 Mar; 16(1):1-29, 206-8.

    Appreciation of basic realities and possible implications of planetary warming driven by accumulation of greenhouse gases should be part of any well-founded appraisal of civilization's prospects for the next century. This review...outlines risks and benefits of planetary warming, and reviews policy options, their chances for adoption, and desirabilities....A global strategy to counter planetary warming would combine major population growth cuts in large poor countries with major reductions of resource consumption in the richest nations. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
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  17. 17

    Are Americans on a consumption binge? The evidence reconsidered.

    Blecker RA

    Washington, D.C., Economic Policy Institute, 1990. 71 p.

    This report refutes the hypothesis that the private household sector as a whole has been "overconsuming" in recent years. It shows that consumption growth in the US has not been unusually rapid in the 1980s, that the conventional measures which show low savings rates are misleading, and that private investment has not been constrained by a shortfall of savings. The fundamental problem of the American economy in the 1980s was not overconsumption, but underproduction. In the 1980s, only the richest 20% of households experienced a high average growth rate of real consumption spending. The bottom 80% of households had, on average, little or no growth of their real expenditures in the last decade. Most of the increase in the average consumption-gross national product ratio can be explained by higher personal interest income, increased personal wealth (net worth), and cash realizations from sales of equity due to corporate takeovers--all of which are concentrated among the richest households. The overall growth of consumption was no more rapid over the decade of the 1980s than in the previous 3 decades; by some measures it even slowed down. Although aggregate real personal consumption expenditures per capita did grow rapidly in 1985-1988, this rapid growth appears to have been a delayed effort to make up for losses in consumption during the prolonged recessionary period of 1980-1982. Consumption appears excessive relative to national income because national income was depressed in the 1980s. The appearance of low rates of net private saving and investment is mainly due to high rates of economic depreciation of the nation's capital stock, not to a lack of thrift in the private sector. While gross corporate profits were robust in the 1980s, net profits of nonfinancial corporations were squeezed by the combination of high economic depreciation allowances and high net interest payments. The low personal saving rate of 1985-1988 can be explained largely by the fact that the value of wealth rose rapidly in that period, enabling wealthy households to spend more out of current income while still increasing their assets. Since the tax policy changes of the last decade have generally favored the richest 10% of the population, and since this is the only group which has been able to increase its real consumption spending rapidly in the last decade, there is a prima facie case for restoring at least the pre-1980 degree of progressivity of the tax system.
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  18. 18

    The water crisis and population. [Pamphlet collection].

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO]

    [Rome, Italy], FAO, [1986]. vi, [126] p.

    The dimensions of the water crisis and its implications for the population of the world is the subject of a 4-pamphlet packet distributed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Part 1 relates legends about water and details the role of water in human history. Rapid population growth and its detrimental effects on water conservation and the environmental balance are explained. Recognition of the population growth problem is urged, with government-backed family planning programs recommended. Part 2 gives a detailed explanation of the life cycle and its dependence on soil and water. Climate, vegetation, and types of water are examined in relation to their role in the distribution of available water resources. Future water resources and demand are projected for agriculture, industry, and domestic use. The disruption of the balance between man and water and the problem of water pollution are addressed, as are deforestation, desertification, drought, and the greenhouse effect. Part 3 offers a view of inland waters and agriculture, with a history of irrigation and the role of irrigation today. Rural water, its use, sources, storage, and collection are examined in relation to work distribution, family size, and sanitation. Problems arising from unsafe water supplies, including disease, infection, and malnutrition are discussed, and examples are given of small-scale projects that have successfully addressed these problems. The final section deals with water and the future. A continuing effort at water and land conservation, as well as surface water and ground water management, is urged. Irrigation planning and supporting systems, such as terracing, fallowing, and improved cropping patterns, are presented as further management techniques. Preserving existing resources, lifting, various kinds of wells, new storage methods and purification systems, are suggested to increase domestic water conservation. Examples of water projects in Africa, Asia, and the South Pacific are presented. Finally, population management and its crucial role in future water resources allocation, conservation, and distribution, is provided.
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  19. 19

    International labour migration and remittances: experience in Thailand.

    Kerdpibule U

    [Unpublished, 1985]. ii, 37 p. (DP/RILM/3.)

    Remittances from Thai workers abroad, although relatively small, have been increasing in magnitude over the years. Until recently it was looked on as a promising source of foreign exchange earnings. Remittances contributed substantially to the improvement in the standards of living and productive investments in rural areas of Thailand. The volume of remittances is determined largely by the number of workers and levels of wages that migrant workers receive from foreign employers. The present situation of the international labor market in the Middle East is not conducive either to high rates of labor migration or to high wages as in past years. Competition among labor-exporting countries may aggravate the unfavorable situation. Unregistered employment agents in Thailand send workers abroad to work for wages below the minimum set by the Department of Labor. Labor-exporting countries would benefit from cooperation to prevent further competition and to improve their bargaining position with the labor-importing countries. For Thailand, the most urgent issue is improving organizational structure for sending migrant workers abroad. This could lead immediately to a larger flow of remittances as workers would receive more net earnings as a result of the improvement. With respect to the utilization of remittances, measures to redirect remittances from consumption to investments should be based on incentives rather than controls.
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  20. 20

    Remittances of Indian migrants to the Middle East: an assessment with special reference to migrants from Kerala State.

    Gulati IS; Mody A

    [Unpublished, 1985]. ii, 61 p. (DP/RILM/4.)

    The future course of remittance inflows to India from the Middle East is intimately linked to what happens to the Indian work force in the Middle East. In 1979-1982, the absolute level of outflow fell from 270,000 in 1981 to 225,000 in 1984. Given the prospects, both medium and long term, of world oil prices and oil exports from the Middle East, it is quite likely that the rate of growth of both investments and output in the labor-importing countries of the Middle East will be much slower. The composition of future investments in these countries will also change to more capital intensive industries away from construction. In the next few years there may continue to be some demand for additional labor, but in the longer run workers may return home in large numbers. The demand for construction will slow down, and the demand for services will rise. Which of the labor-exporting countries will be able to respond appropriately to this changing pattern of demand for skills from the Middle East is a question that cannot be easily answered. Labor-exporting countries need flexibility in adjusting their manpower supply to changing patterns of skill demand from the Middle East. The flow of remittances form Indian workers in the Middle East has been substantial. Although the government of India offers a number of incentives for the placement of remittances, the amounts invested in these firms and companies has never added up to more than 1/5 of any year's total remittances. Individual migrant workers have priorities of their own to follow. No amount of inducement for other forms of investment can easily deflect a migrant from his preference for land. Incentive measures may have to be made much more effective and wide ranging.
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  21. 21

    The impact of population ageing on the social security expenditure and economic growth in Japan.

    Maruo N


    The author considers the impact of demographic aging in Japan on the social security system and on economic growth. It is argued that "First of all, as the cost of social security (including social services) increases remarkably at the earlier stage of ageing, the disposable (after tax) income and private consumption of the present labour force generation tend to increase at a lower growth rate than that of the GNP....Secondly if pension systems are based on terminal funding schemes, the ageing of the population increases savings (net increase of the amount of the pension funds) at the earlier stage of the ageing of the population. Thirdly, there is a time lag between the increase of social security benefits and the decrease in the personal savings ratio. The high ratio of savings and the shortage of aggregate demand as well as the high pressure for export in...recent Japan can partly be attributed to the above factors." Possible future economic scenarios as demographic ageing in Japan proceeds are described, and policies to avert anticipated problems are outlined. (SUMMARY IN JPN) (EXCERPT)
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  22. 22

    Demographic consequences of the Great Leap Forward in China's provinces.

    Peng X

    POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1987 Dec; 13(4):639-70, 763-4, 766.

    This article examines the demographic consequences of China's Great Leap Forward--the massive and ultimately unsuccessful drive during 1958-62 to leap ahead in production by mobilizing society and reorganizing the peasantry into large-scale communes. Severe excess mortality and massive fertility shortfalls are documented, but with wide variations among provinces and between rural and urban areas. The demographic crisis was caused, in the first instance, by nationwide food shortages. However, these are attributable to declines in grain production, entitlement failure, and changes in consumption patterns, all of which are ultimately traceable to political and economic policies connected with the Great Leap. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
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  23. 23

    The effect of price and income changes on food-energy intake in Sri Lanka.

    Sahn DE


    Data is used to analyze the food acquisition behavior of households from a 1980/81 survey designed to be nationally, sectorally, and regionally representative of Sri Lanka. The poor are shown to be much more responsive to price and income changes than other income groups. The urban population generally exhibits lower income elasticities of demand for food commodities. The poor appear to efficient substitutors, thereby mitigating the effects of a price change on caloric intake. The important exception is rice, whose elasticity of calorie consumption with respect to price was about 4 times higher than for any other commodity. The reluctance of households to substitute for rice, even when faced with rising prices, coupled with its large budget share, show rice to be the most important consumption good. Higher rice prices are an important determinant of poverty for landless and urban workers. Moderating food prices, preferably through technological change, is a key ingredient to raising consumption among the poor. Simulations show that, even if there are rapid and proportional increases in expenditures of all income groups, this will not dramatically increase caloric intake among the poor. However, if the absolute value of the increase in real expenditures were distributed equally to all households, there would be a marked increase in the % of households consuming an adequate diet.
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  24. 24

    Investment in social development: some implications of demographic conditions.

    Herzog J

    In: Population strategy in Asia. The Second Asian Population Conference, Tokyo, November 1972. Report, declaration and selected papers, [compiled by] United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East [ECAFE]. Bangkok, Thailand, ECAFE, 1974 Jun. 190-203. (Asian Population Study Series No. 28; E/C.N.11/1152)

    The question raised in this discussion is how demographic conditions and particularly the rate of population growth affect both the role investment plays in social development and the allocation of resources among the alternative social projects and programs. Particular attention is directed to the factors and problems decision makers and social planners must consider in allocating social investment. An attempt is made to analyze 3 ways in which demographic conditions may affect the production of social goods and services: economies of scale; innovation; and changes in the mix of inputs. The implications of economies of scale for social investment policy are 2-fold: in allocating resources among sectors, decision makers must consider differences among sectors in the extent of economies (or diseconomies) of scale; and social investment policy may seek to exploit economies of scale without depending on population growth and to minimize diseconomies of scale without depending on reductions in population growth. It has been hypothesized that rapid population growth will lead to innovation in social technology, yet it is unclear why individuals or societies should respond more creatively to pressure due to population growth than to pressure due to economic or political developments or to higher levelsof aspiration. And, it is unclear that rapid population growth has in fact stimulated innovation in specific countries. Changes in the relative prices of inputs may call for or even induce changes the mix of imputs used in producing social goods. This may be the case even in the absence of technological advance. Although it often is noted that population growth tends to increase the desired and actual level of consumption of social goods and services, it less frequently is recognized that the relative increases in consumption are not likely to be the same for all social goods and services. This is due in part to the production relationships. To bring about a general decline in fertility it is insufficient to increase the consumption of social goods and services by a relatively small number of rich couples who already may limit their fertility. What is necessary is to increase the consumption of social goods and services by all parts of the population and thereby to influence the fertility behavior of a substantial proportion of the population. Policies designed to influence economic behavior might be directed appropriately towards relatively high income groups, for they account for a disproportionately large share of all consumption, saving, and investment.
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  25. 25

    [Nutrition in Peru: problems and possibilities] Alimentacion en el Peru: problemas h posibilidades.

    Paz Silva LJ

    In: Problemas populacionales Peruanos II, [edited by] Roger Guerra-Garcia. Lima, Peru, Asociacion Multidisciplinaria de Investigacion y Docencia en Poblacion, 1986. 225-36.

    This work is an amplification of an article on food production and rural problems that appeared in the original volume of "Peruvian Population Problems" published in 1980. Because the problems identified 5 years earlier remain largely unchanged, this article contains additional ideas for improving production and distribution of foods, taking into account the unfavorable economic conditions and poorly developed internal market in Peru. There is a tendency for ministeries of agriculture to attribute production increases to good policy, while decreases are explained by poor weather or unfavorable international marketing conditions. Government policy influences production, but in statistical analyses and in policy decisions, climatic and market conditions each year should be objectively considered in order to avoid intentional or unintentional deception. Taking 1979 as the base year, agricultural production declined by 20% and livestock production by 1.4% in 1980. In 1981, production increases of 4.1% were achieved except in sugar cane, while in 1983 the increase was over 17% and in 1983 there was an 8.3% decline. Between 1980-84, Peruvian exports of coffee, sugar, and cotton amounted to nearly 1 billion dollars, but imports of foods amounted to 2 billion dollars. Foods imported were primarily wheat, maize, milk products, and soy beans. Dependence on food imports is a significant factor in food price increases. Apart from increasing the quantity of land under cultivation, there is a significant potential for increased agricultural production through improved productivity and commercialization, more complete utilization of products, and subproducts, and increased export of nontraditional agricultural products. Increases in productivity can be achieved by transferring to farmers the achievements of plant researchers. The costs of inputs necessary for the new agricultural techniques must not be excessive in relation to prices paid to growers, and the various institutions providing agricultural services must coordinate their programs. The purchashing power of the population must be increased if nutritional status is to improve. Efforts should initially be focussed on increasing production of foods that would otherwise be imported, including wheat, barley, maize, oils, milk products, meat, and on products for export. The food policy should address issues of availability of food, including a family planning program as a basic component; family income and food expenditures; physical infrastructure for community food supplies and services; nutrition education, basic sanitation, international food aid, and similar issues; development of institutions for community participation in food supply and distribution; and training of personnel to design and implement rural development and food policies.
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