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[Unpublished] 2002 Jun 7. 18 p.The models measuring the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS are heterogeneous : each one relies on a specific theoretical background. Nevertheless, there are at least, three main common limits to those approaches : the authors concentrate on the impact on the labour market ; they neglect the potential implications on the capital market ; and they do not model some essential microeconomic impacts such as the change in the agents' economic behaviour. More specifically, the analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDs on savings takes into account direct costs such as health expenditures, seldom indirect costs like the anticipation of funeral costs and they do not model di¤ered indirect costs. The paper proposes an analysis of this last kind of implications through the impact of the epidemic on the saving behaviour. This paper focuses on the uncertainty of life expectancy and is based on two frameworks: the Galí (1990) model which considers the life cycle theory with a ...nite horizon at the aggregate level and the Moresi (1999) model which specifies a peculiar consumption utility function through uncertain lifetime. The calibaration and simulations of our model reveal a significant drop in future saving rate in South Africa under the hypothesis of a virus evolution similar to the one given by the UN Population Division : the saving rate in 2015, under those hypothesis, should be at least 5 percentage points inferior to the estimated saving rate that would then prevail in the absence of the epidemic. (author's)
Cost of AIDS care in Mexico: What are its main predictors? Working paper. Draft. [Costo de la atención del SIDA en México: ¿Cuáles son sus principales factores de predicción? Documento de trabajo. Versión preliminar]
[Unpublished] 2002. Prepared for the IAEN Economics of HIV / AIDS in Developing Countries Symposium, Barcelona, Spain, July 6-7, 2002. 17 p.Though Mexico has a relatively low HIV/AIDS adult prevalence rate (estimated by UNAIDS at 0.29% at the end of 1999), AIDS has become an important issue for the health care system because of the high costs associated with treatment. Since the beginning of the epidemic and through the end of 2001, a total of 51,000 cases of AIDS have been reported in Mexico (CENSIDA 2001), USAID. but because delay in report and sub-notification the number estimate of cases are around 64,000. Mexico’s 100 million inhabitants (INEGI) receive their health care from a health system composed of three principal subsystems: (a) a number of social security institutes that provide health insurance for the formally employed and their families (almost 50 million beneficiaries) and is financed by earmarked employer and employees payroll taxes plus legally mandated government contributions; (b) governmental services headed by the Ministry of Health (MoH) and limited NGO services for the uninsured population (estimated at around 48 million), and (c) a large private sector that is almost entirely financed out-of-pocket as the private insurance market comprises less than 2 million enrollees. The Mexican Institute for Social Security, the main social security institution, offers AIDS treatment, including antiretrovirals (ARVs), for all of its affiliates who need it. (excerpt)
In: Population and environment: rethinking the debate, edited by Lourdes Arizpe, M. Priscilla Stone, and David C. Major. Boulder, Colorado, Westview Press, 1994. 15-40.The chapter aim was to present new directions for constructing comprehensive social, political, and economic models of the environment and population links. Variables should include not just population size, but density, rate of increase, age distribution, sex ratios, access to resources, livelihoods, social dimensions of gender, and power structures. Sustainability must account for sustainable livelihoods. Today's challenges are on much larger scale without precedence. Out-migration is not now possible due to ecological mismanagement. The natural inequalities in geographic resource distribution are exacerbated by the economic power of capital in industrialized nations and elite groups in less developed countries. Solutions are not possible when the debate is deadlocked. Population growth is an "accelerating force" and interrelated with socioeconomic transitions. Consumption of natural and human made resources must be tied to population growth. Sustainable development must occur nationally, regionally, and globally. Demographic transition today has been occurring in ways different from the developed country models of socioeconomic change. The momentum of population growth, the age structure, and the consumption and impact of new persons on social and ecological systems must be accounted for. Carrying capacity concepts are difficult to estimate, in part because needs are determined by culture. Population growth has been used to obscure existing disparities and inequalities. Various theoretical postures have emerged: population growth as a cause of environmental depletion, technology as a solution spurred on population growth, consumption disparities as a cause, income inequality as a cause, and measurement deficits in determining the differential effects of population growth. Environmental change has always occurred in tandem with population change. Examples from the Lacandon rainforest illustrated the complexity of interactions.
Ann Arbor, Michigan, University Microfilms International, 1989. , iii, 139 p. (Order No. 8923677)A population of low-income urban squatter households in Amman, Jordan, many of whom are migrants, is used to investigate the degree to which fertility has been affected by exposure to the influence of an urban environment. The data are provided by 2 surveys, carried out in 1981 and 1985, before and after a substantial upgrading program was carried out. The program included the provision of physical and social infrastructure (paved roads, piped water and sewerage, electricity, community centers, and women's training centers, etc.). Since the program also provided the opportunity for households to purchase the land on which they had settled, it represented altogether a substantial change in living conditions and choices for the study population. The surveys thus allowed the investigation of the effects of land ownership on fertility; the factors involved were those such as ethnic background, presence of extended family members in the household, as well as urban exposure. The aspects of fertility which were investigated were: cumulative fertility--analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on cross-sectoral data; contraceptive use--examined using logit and probit analysis as well as OLS, on a subsample of the study population; and current fertility--investigated using Poisson regression to analyze the number of children born between the 2 surveys and the open interval at the time of the 2nd survey to analyze OLS regression. The various analyses do not support a hypothesis of urban exposure per se as being negatively associated with fertility. Apart from the expected findings regarding the biological variables included (age, marital status), and the pervasive negative effect of women's education, the variables tested tend to influence fertility in a direction contrary to expectation. "Higher status" variables such as land ownership, skilled occupation of household head, and income, tend to operate in the direction of allowing larger numbers of children. Contraceptive use levels are higher than would be expected on the basis of observed fertility levels, but are much lower than the potential need for birth spacing, given the relatively large proportion of the women surveyed who did not desire a pregnancy. What emerges, essentially, is that those households studied still either have a large desired family size, due possibly to cultural factors not seen in the analysis (those that would affect the entire population) or that their altered perceptions concerning number of children have not yet been translated into lower fertility. The main policy implications for this population are: changes in dwelling ownership, household head's job status, and household income are unlikely to, on their own, have a strong negative impact on fertility in the shortterm. There is considerable scope, however, for reducing fertility among the older age groups. In view of the likelihood of a decline in breastfeeding popularity, the potential demand for birth spacing, and the positive correlation between contraceptive use and income in the study population, reductions in cost and increased availability of contraceptive methods as part of a healthcare program would likely be beneficial. (author's modified)
[Births are affected by economic concerns] Geboorteontwikkeling wordt beinvloed door vertrouwen in de economie.
MAANDSTATISTIEK VAN DE BEVOLKING. 1991 Sep; 39(9):25-30.The author uses a regression model to explain the effects of consumer confidence and the economic climate on fluctuations in the total fertility rate. Data are for the Netherlands and cover the period 1972-1990. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (ANNOTATION)
PAKISTAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1988 Autumn; 27(3):229-76.A subjective equilibrium model was constructed, integrating economic and demographic behavior of agricultural households, using data from a special Philippine survey. The data were collected in 1978-1979 from 590 households in Misamis Oriental, northern Mindanao Island, sponsored by FAO/UNFPA. Households were categorized into large and small farms, and owner and tenant-operated farms. The utility maximization hypothesis was tested and could not be rejected for any socioeconomic groups. The major difference was the input of child labor. The utility maximization model also revealed demands for leisure and commodities consistent with higher valuation of children in tenant and small households compared to owner and large households. The analysis of household equilibrium with demographic characteristics suggests important policy implications: that improved endowments at the bottom could trickle up to result in higher production and lower population growth.
Chicago, Illinois, National Opinion Research Center, Economics Research Center, 1988. 30,  p. (Discussion Paper No. 88-8.)Altruistic parents make choices of family size along with decisions about consumption and intergenerational transfers. The authors apply this framework to a closed economy, where the determination of interest rates and wage rates is simultaneous with the determination of population growth and the accumulation of capital. Thus, the literature on optimal economic growth to allow for optimizing choices of fertility and intergenerational transfers is extended. The authors use the model to assess the effects of child-rearing costs, the tax system, the conditions of technology and preferences, and shocks to the initial levels of population and the capital stock. (author's)
TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY. 1987; 9(3-4):261-73.Technology as a factor influencing fertility is discussed. The author argues that "technological change affects the demand for children, and hence for fertility regulation, both by directly altering the expected benefits and costs of children to parents and by influencing the cultural and social structural underpinnings of that economic calculus. Routes of that influence include the demand for education generated by competition for modern sector employment, the consumerist values and lifestyles conveyed by communications media, and the erosion of community and kin pressures on individual behavior in a more mobile and more commercialized society. Such forces for behavioral change, it is argued, are more powerful factors in fertility decline than either the 'social technology' of contraceptive service delivery (family planning programs) or improvements in the technology of contraception itself." (EXCERPT)
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS. 1988 Feb; 103(1):1-25.An economic analysis of the linkages in fertility rates and capital accumulation across generations is developed, considering the determination of fertility and capital accumulation in each generation when wage rates and interest rates are parameters to each family and to open economies. The model is based on the assumption that parents are altruistic toward their children. The utility of parents depends on their own consumption and on the utility of each child and the number of children. By relating the utility of children to their own consumption and to the utility of their children, a dynastic utility function was obtained that depends on the consumption and number of descendants in all generations. The term "reformulation" was used because of the emphasis on dynastic utility model of altruism toward children and deriving the budget constraint and utility function of a dynastic family, the model was applied to the Great Depression and World War II. The 1st-order conditions to maximize utility imply that fertility in any generation depends positively on the real interest rate and the degree of altruism and negatively on the rate of growth in per capita consumption from 1 generation to the next. Consumption of each descendant depends positively on the net cost of rearing a desdendant. Applying the model, it is shown that the analysis is consistent with baby busts during the Depression and the war and with a baby boom after the war. The effects on fertility of child mortality, subsidies to (or taxes on) children, and social security and other transfer payments to adults were considered. The demand for surviving children rises during the transition to low child mortality, but demand for survivors return to its prior level once mortality stabilizes at a low level. Fertility falls in response to declines in international real interest rates and increases in an economy's rate of technological progress. Extending the analysis to include life-cycle variations in consumption, earnings, and utility, fertility emerges as a function of expenditures on the subsistence and human capital of children but not of expenditures that simply raise the consumption of children. The path of aggregate consumption in demographic steady states does not depend on interest rates, time preference, or other determinants of life-cycle variations in consumption.
WORLD DEVELOPMENT. 1988 Sep; 16(9):1,099-112.This paper reviews the evidence on household strategies for coping with famine in Africa and identifies some distinctive patterns in these strategies which can be used to examine household objectives at times of crises, the management of resources to meet these objectives and limits to the effectiveness of coping strategies. In particular it examines the role of asset management and trade-offs between maintaining current food consumption levels and protecting the future income generating capacity of the household. Case studies are presented on northern Nigeria, two provinces in Sudan, and northeastern Ethiopia. (EXCERPT)
In: Economic and social implications of population aging: proceedings of the International Symposium on Population Structure and Development, Tokyo, 10-12 September 1987. New York, New York, United Nations, 1988. 121-44. (ST/ESA/SER.R/85.)Demographic projections for the majority of the industrial countries show that the proportion of persons of working age (15-59 or 15-64) in the total population will be higher in 2000 than it was in 1980. But after the beginning of the next century, in all the industrial countries except Ireland, there will be a gradual reduction in the proportion of persons of working age. The projections show that the deterioration in the ratio of persons aged 20-59 to those ages 60 and over will be felt gradually at first, owing to the baby boom, but that it will speed up from 2005. According to the majority of experts, the aging of the active population will have the effect of restraining the structural plasticity of the economy by slowing down necessary changes and mobility between sectors, and will produce an increase in wage and non-wage costs. Aging produces a slow decline in the consumption of goods and services associated with childhood and a slow increase in the consumption of certain goods and services connected with advancing age (leisure, health care, dietary products). Demographic aging has an effect on the quality of savings, which will tend to be more cautious and directed more towards prudent investments than towards investments in the modernization of the productive apparatus, which are not immediately profitable and contain risks. With the increase in life expectancy, the age of inheritance is constantly rising. The increasingly late passing-on of legacies does not facilitate the modernization of enterprises. The majority of retirement schemes have not yet reached maturity. Many pensioners have not contributed for the period required for a full pension, especially women. Increasingly, the rich countries are finding that they have a number of economic and social problems in common. In the rich countries, there is universal concern about the structural rigidity which aging creates and exacerbates in production and about the future financial balance of the retirement systems, which are seen to be under serious threat at a time when, paradoxically, the economic, social, and health situation of old people has never been better.
Ann Arbor, Michigan, University Microfilms International, 1986. 209 p.This research investigates the effects of household age-sex composition on the labor supply of women in [a developing country] setting. It is based on a new approach of modelling the economic consequences of variation in the individual and family life cycle developed by Lee (1983). It is posited that each person is capable of producing four types of effects: (1) generate demand for consumer goods...(2) supply time to market activity...(3) create demand for home production...and (4) supply time to housework....These per capita effects depend on the age and sex of each person and are regarded as exogenous, determined partly by biological needs and partly by socio-cultural norms....The empirical results of this research, derived from Malaysian Family Life Survey data (1976-77), have generally confirmed the usefulness of the basic approach described above. This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of California at Berkeley. (EXCERPT)
[Unpublished, 1985]. ii, 37 p. (DP/RILM/3.)Remittances from Thai workers abroad, although relatively small, have been increasing in magnitude over the years. Until recently it was looked on as a promising source of foreign exchange earnings. Remittances contributed substantially to the improvement in the standards of living and productive investments in rural areas of Thailand. The volume of remittances is determined largely by the number of workers and levels of wages that migrant workers receive from foreign employers. The present situation of the international labor market in the Middle East is not conducive either to high rates of labor migration or to high wages as in past years. Competition among labor-exporting countries may aggravate the unfavorable situation. Unregistered employment agents in Thailand send workers abroad to work for wages below the minimum set by the Department of Labor. Labor-exporting countries would benefit from cooperation to prevent further competition and to improve their bargaining position with the labor-importing countries. For Thailand, the most urgent issue is improving organizational structure for sending migrant workers abroad. This could lead immediately to a larger flow of remittances as workers would receive more net earnings as a result of the improvement. With respect to the utilization of remittances, measures to redirect remittances from consumption to investments should be based on incentives rather than controls.
Remittances of Indian migrants to the Middle East: an assessment with special reference to migrants from Kerala State.
[Unpublished, 1985]. ii, 61 p. (DP/RILM/4.)The future course of remittance inflows to India from the Middle East is intimately linked to what happens to the Indian work force in the Middle East. In 1979-1982, the absolute level of outflow fell from 270,000 in 1981 to 225,000 in 1984. Given the prospects, both medium and long term, of world oil prices and oil exports from the Middle East, it is quite likely that the rate of growth of both investments and output in the labor-importing countries of the Middle East will be much slower. The composition of future investments in these countries will also change to more capital intensive industries away from construction. In the next few years there may continue to be some demand for additional labor, but in the longer run workers may return home in large numbers. The demand for construction will slow down, and the demand for services will rise. Which of the labor-exporting countries will be able to respond appropriately to this changing pattern of demand for skills from the Middle East is a question that cannot be easily answered. Labor-exporting countries need flexibility in adjusting their manpower supply to changing patterns of skill demand from the Middle East. The flow of remittances form Indian workers in the Middle East has been substantial. Although the government of India offers a number of incentives for the placement of remittances, the amounts invested in these firms and companies has never added up to more than 1/5 of any year's total remittances. Individual migrant workers have priorities of their own to follow. No amount of inducement for other forms of investment can easily deflect a migrant from his preference for land. Incentive measures may have to be made much more effective and wide ranging.
Cambridge, Massachusetts, Harvard University, Migration and Development Program, 1987 Sep. 27 p. (Migration and Development Program Discussion Paper No. 32)The marital arrangements among households in rural India were examined to explain mobility patterns. It was hypothesized that the marrying out of daughters to locationally distant, dispersed yet kinship-related households is a manifestation of implicit interhousehold contractual arrangements aimed at mitigating income risks and facilitating consumption smoothing in an environment characterized by information costs and spatially covariant risks. The study's data were drawn from a longitudinal survey of households in 3 farm villages in Southern India. Of the 115 marriages included in this sample, only 14 (12%) involved partners who were not also relatives. In 82% of the marriages involving heads of households, the head and his wife had parents with either the same dry or irrigated landholdings or with the same parental schooling levels. The close matching of marital partners with respect to origin household characteristics and the diversity and distance characterizing the marriages were consistent with the hypothesis that marital arrangements influence a household's ability to smooth its consumption when confronted with highly variable income streams. The marital status of adult women in the household, and the interhousehold bonds created by marriage, is the decisive factor contributing to income risk mitigation. Marriage with migration contributed to a reduction in variability in consumption. Households exposed to higher income risks were more likely to invest in longer distance migration-marriage arrangements. The hypothesized and observed marriage-migration patterns contradict standard models of marriage or migration that are concerned primarily with search costs and static income gains.
Taipei, Taiwan, Academia Sinica, Institute of Economics, 1987 Dec. viii, 125 p. (Studies of Modern Economy Series No. 10)Household consumption patterns in Taiwan during the period 1964-1981 are analyzed, with an emphasis on the impact of demographic variables on household consumption choices. An economic model is used to show that "demographic factors play a key role in the household decision making of consumption and saving and that household demographic variables have great effects on the magnitudes and structures of commodities consumed. The estimated values of demographic scaling parameters indicate that there exists [an] economy of scale of family size in consumer expenditure....The scale effects of commodities in 1981 in general were lower than these in 1964." Comparisons are made with trends in the United Kingdom, the United States, and South Korea. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (EXCERPT)
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CULTURAL CHANGE. 1988 Jan; 36(2):315-40.Data is used to analyze the food acquisition behavior of households from a 1980/81 survey designed to be nationally, sectorally, and regionally representative of Sri Lanka. The poor are shown to be much more responsive to price and income changes than other income groups. The urban population generally exhibits lower income elasticities of demand for food commodities. The poor appear to efficient substitutors, thereby mitigating the effects of a price change on caloric intake. The important exception is rice, whose elasticity of calorie consumption with respect to price was about 4 times higher than for any other commodity. The reluctance of households to substitute for rice, even when faced with rising prices, coupled with its large budget share, show rice to be the most important consumption good. Higher rice prices are an important determinant of poverty for landless and urban workers. Moderating food prices, preferably through technological change, is a key ingredient to raising consumption among the poor. Simulations show that, even if there are rapid and proportional increases in expenditures of all income groups, this will not dramatically increase caloric intake among the poor. However, if the absolute value of the increase in real expenditures were distributed equally to all households, there would be a marked increase in the % of households consuming an adequate diet.
Cambridge, Massachusetts, Harvard University Center for Population Studies, 1987. 16 p. (Discussion Paper Series No. 33.)This paper assumes that migrants derive utility from their own consumption, their own leisure and remittances to their family. It hypothesizes that the labor supply and remittances of Mexican migrants in the US are jointly determined. Shifts in real exchange rates affect the cost of sending a given real volume of remittances back to the family in the sending country. This in turn induces income and substitution effects on both remittances and labor supply. It is argued that the substitution effect would dominate. Therefore, under reasonable conditions, a real depreciation of the peso should lead to an increase in both remittances and labor supply. Empirical work using US Census data and a data set containing information on Mexican migrants in the US lends support to the theoretical predictions. (author's)
JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS. 1986 Jul; 4(3, Pt. 2):1-47.This paper develops a model of the transmission of earnings, assets, and consumption from parents to descendants. The model assumes utility-maximizing parents who are concerned about the welfare of their children. The degree of intergenerational mobility is determined by the interaction of this utility-maximizing behavior with investment and consumption opportunities in different generations and with different kinds of luck. We examine a number of empirical studies for different countries. Regression to the mean in earnings in rich countries appears to be rapid. Almost all the earnings advantages or disadvantages of ancestors are wiped out in three generations. A comment by Robert J. Willis is included (pp. 40-7). (EXCERPT)
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1986; 12 Suppl:139-54.Mean family size in the industrial nations is less than the 2.1 children per couple needed for the population to remain constant over the long run. The countries of Western Europe have a mean family size of about 1.61 children per couple, with West Germany as low as 1.42, Japan at 1.71, Europe as a whole at 1.9, and the US at 1.85. The decline of births is related to 1) contraception, for the 1st time controlled by women; 2) women's employment outside the home; and 3) the democratization of decision making within couples. Work opportunities for women lower the birth rate, but they do so by freeing women from the dictatorship of men. The activity of child rearing is compared with other uncompensated activities that occupy people's leisure on the one hand, and with paid work in the other hand. Clerical work, women's current alternative to the 19th century factory, has agreeable social elements combined with tolerable and limited duties. Staying home with children can be lonely 7 days a week; it lacks crisp challenges and interpersonal relations. If parents do not spend their money and time producing children, they can apply both money and time to the purchase and use of dazzling array of other goods. Children are no longer investments in the traditional sense because 1) children are in large part no longer formed by parents but by television, schools, and peer groups; and 2) parents rely on their own savings and the state to provide for their old age. A feature of earlier high fertility was the inculcation of differentiated gender roles starting long before marriage. Women has few choices beyond raising children. The spread of high-fertility cultures did not need to be planned by anyone; sheer aithmetic worked at 2nd remove to make male dominance universal. This article argues that under modern conditions there will be few children.
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1986; 12 Suppl:69-76.The economic approach to fertility emphasizes the effects of parents' income and the cost of rearing children. With a few exceptions, this approach has neglected the analytical links between decisions by different generations of the same family. This article develops the implications of altruism toward children, where utility of parents depends on their own consumption, their fertility, and the utility of each of their children. Altruism toward children implies that the welfare of all generations of a family is linked through a dynastic utility function that depends on the consumption, fertility, and number of descendants in all generations. The head of a dynastic family acts as if he maximizes dynastic utility subject to a dynastic budget constraint, which involves the wealth inherited by the head, interest rates, the cost of rearing children in all generations, and the earnings of all descendants. The authors neglect uncertainty, marriage, the spacing of births, and capital-market restraints over life cycles and across generations. Nevertheless, even a highly simplified model of altruism toward children and the behavior of dynastic families appears to us to capture important important aspects of the dynamic behavior of fertility and consumption. If so, a new approach would be warranted to the analysis of trends and long-term fluctuations in fertility, population growth, and consumption.
DEMOGRAPHY INDIA. 1986 Jul-Dec; 15(2):253-7.The authors compare the standard of living, as measured by per capita consumption expenditure, among five social-class groups in India using data from a national sample survey. (ANNOTATION)
In: Return migration and regional economic problems, edited by Russell King. London, England, Croom Helm, 1986. 171-84.Using a survey of 173 households from 1984, this paper examines the nature of recent return migration to Jordan, with particular reference to the capitol city, Amman. Emigration is very evident in Jordan, which has an estimated 40% of its work force employed abroad. Remittances from 20% of its gross national product. Not only has employment in oil-rich countries declined since 1979, return migration has also accelerated. Return migration as a part of international migration has become an extremely important force in generating urban change in Jordan. The date of emigration directly influenced the probability of return, but no associaton was found between the place of birth and return migration or between countries of employment and current and return migration. Return migrants had slightly smaller households than current migrants. Return migrants were much more likely to have purchased land as an investment or to have used their remittances for house construction or alterations than current migrants. Neither return nor current migrants showed much interest in devoting their remittances to agriculture and industry; a similar proportion of both groups used their foreign earnings to educate another family member. The geographic impact of return migration is evident in the present physical growth of Jordan's cities.
[On the socioeconomic situation of families today: data and problems] Zur sozialokonomischen Lage von Familien heute--Daten und Probleme.
ZEITSCHRIFT FUR BEVOLKERUNGSWISSENSCHAFT. 1986; 12(2):221-37.The author considers the socioeconomic status of young families in the Federal Republic of Germany and gives particular attention to the constraints that socioeconomic factors may exercise on the success of certain family policies. Family income and expenditures and the notion of the opportunity cost of children are discussed. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) (ANNOTATION)
JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS. 1985 Aug; 18(2-3):243-52.That the introduction of a means for transferring present to future consumption other than children in a developing country will reduce the rate of population growth is shown to depend crucially on the assumption that parents do not care about the numbers or the welfare of the children they have. When parents do care, the conclusion no longer unambiguously follows because the new means for providing for parents' old age leads to a positive income effect. (EXCERPT)