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Asia-Pacific Population Journal. 2006 Dec; 21(3):7-16.Every country in the Asian and Pacific region is in the midst of a demographic transition that is producing large changes in age structure with important implications for economic growth and standards of living. In the early stages of the transition, high fertility and declining infant and child mortality produce a bulge in the population at young ages. The middle of the transition is marked by an increase in the share of the population concentrated at the working ages as large cohorts of children reach adulthood and as the relative number of children are depressed by fertility decline. At the end of the transition, the share of the older population increases. In part, this is a consequence of continued reductions in mortality rates, but of greater consequence are the low fertility rates that characterize the final stages of the demographic transition. (excerpt)
[Unpublished] 2002 Jun 7. 18 p.The models measuring the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS are heterogeneous : each one relies on a specific theoretical background. Nevertheless, there are at least, three main common limits to those approaches : the authors concentrate on the impact on the labour market ; they neglect the potential implications on the capital market ; and they do not model some essential microeconomic impacts such as the change in the agents' economic behaviour. More specifically, the analysis of the impact of HIV/AIDs on savings takes into account direct costs such as health expenditures, seldom indirect costs like the anticipation of funeral costs and they do not model di¤ered indirect costs. The paper proposes an analysis of this last kind of implications through the impact of the epidemic on the saving behaviour. This paper focuses on the uncertainty of life expectancy and is based on two frameworks: the Galí (1990) model which considers the life cycle theory with a ...nite horizon at the aggregate level and the Moresi (1999) model which specifies a peculiar consumption utility function through uncertain lifetime. The calibaration and simulations of our model reveal a significant drop in future saving rate in South Africa under the hypothesis of a virus evolution similar to the one given by the UN Population Division : the saving rate in 2015, under those hypothesis, should be at least 5 percentage points inferior to the estimated saving rate that would then prevail in the absence of the epidemic. (author's)
Cost of AIDS care in Mexico: What are its main predictors? Working paper. Draft. [Costo de la atención del SIDA en México: ¿Cuáles son sus principales factores de predicción? Documento de trabajo. Versión preliminar]
[Unpublished] 2002. Prepared for the IAEN Economics of HIV / AIDS in Developing Countries Symposium, Barcelona, Spain, July 6-7, 2002. 17 p.Though Mexico has a relatively low HIV/AIDS adult prevalence rate (estimated by UNAIDS at 0.29% at the end of 1999), AIDS has become an important issue for the health care system because of the high costs associated with treatment. Since the beginning of the epidemic and through the end of 2001, a total of 51,000 cases of AIDS have been reported in Mexico (CENSIDA 2001), USAID. but because delay in report and sub-notification the number estimate of cases are around 64,000. Mexico’s 100 million inhabitants (INEGI) receive their health care from a health system composed of three principal subsystems: (a) a number of social security institutes that provide health insurance for the formally employed and their families (almost 50 million beneficiaries) and is financed by earmarked employer and employees payroll taxes plus legally mandated government contributions; (b) governmental services headed by the Ministry of Health (MoH) and limited NGO services for the uninsured population (estimated at around 48 million), and (c) a large private sector that is almost entirely financed out-of-pocket as the private insurance market comprises less than 2 million enrollees. The Mexican Institute for Social Security, the main social security institution, offers AIDS treatment, including antiretrovirals (ARVs), for all of its affiliates who need it. (excerpt)
New Zealand Geographer. 1998; 54(2):4-11.Sustainability has become a primary goal for much of the legislation which governs resource management in New Zealand. A major difficulty associated with sustainable development objectives, however, is the absence of reliable indicators to measure progress towards the goal of sustainability. The 'ecological footprint' provides an estimate of the amount of ecologically productive land required on a continuous basis to sustain current levels of resource consumption and waste assimilation for a given population. By comparing the ecological footprint of a community with the amount of land available, we can more clearly determine whether our current consumption patterns are likely to be sustainable. This paper explores the use of ecological footprint analysis within a New Zealand context. Modifications to the existing procedure for calculating an ecological footprint are proposed, and estimates based on the modified procedures are presented for New Zealand. (author's)
In: Population and development planning. Proceedings of the United Nations International Symposium on Population and Development Planning, Riga, Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic, 4-8 December 1989, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Development. New York, New York, United Nations, 1993. 168-79. (ST/ESA/SER.R/116)The objective was to forge a link between demographic dynamics and the structure of consumption for the United States economy by taking into account the effect of changes in 4 demographic variables: 1) the region of location of the household; 2) its size; 3) its age; and 4) the employment status of the woman. Changes in these demographic characteristics of the households are projected by using the log-linear model. The expenditure functions are estimated for various items of personal consumption expenditures. The cross sectional data from the 1972-1973 Consumer Expenditure Survey conducted by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (1980) are used for this purpose. Nearly 20,000 households participated in this survey, during either the 1972 or 1973 calendar years, relating current expenditures on 1651 distinct items of consumption that were matched with 80 categories of personal consumption in the national income accounts. For the United States economy, it is expected that the share of household expenditures will shift away from basic necessities of life, such as food at home and shelter, in favor of items that improve the quality of life or save time, such as restaurant meals and recreation. There will be an increased demand for services, leisure goods and production in favor of non-durable consumer goods. The output of the agricultural sector and of durable consumer and intermediate goods is projected to suffer a decline in the United States. Thus, the methodology proposed in this paper can be used to build a link between demographic dynamics and the structure of production of an economy through changes in the pattern of consumption expenditures.
JOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICS. 1994 Feb; 7(1):49-62.A model of capital accumulation is built in relation with fertility and consumption. Avoiding [the imposition of] a direct analytical relationship between these three variables, the author studies the set of possible evolutions under the constraints imposed by the inertia of habit change. The conflict between the necessity to avoid impoverishment, the desire to increase consumption when possible and the reproduction intensity delineate the set of viable solutions and the set of attitudes leading to capital extinction. This qualitative view of change of behaviors provides an alternative explanation to historical fertility fluctuations outside the usual Easterlin framework. The geographical focus is on Western developed countries, with particular reference to Sweden. (EXCERPT)
JOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICS. 1993; 6(4):353-62.This note gives the conditions under which there is an interior optimum rate of population growth in a two-generations-overlapping model. These conditions imply complementarity both in production and in consumption. They also validate Samuelson's serendipity theorem. (EXCERPT)
In: Population transition in India, vol. 1, edited by S.N. Singh, M.K. Premi, P.S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. Delhi, India, B.R. Publishing, 1989. 499-506.This paper attempts to formulate a model to bring population back into the economic system as an integral process by reformulating the Keynesian consumption function as a linear expenditure system. As per capita income goes on increasing, the 2nd expression in the denominator diminishes. The dampening effect of a lower per capita income makes the population stagnate below its saturation level. The per capita income level may rise fast thus reducing the 2nd expression rapidly and leading the population to converge on the saturation point. The per capita income level may remain constant leading to a very trendless level of the population below its saturation point.
FOOD POLICY. 1989 May; 14(2):167-79.Disaggregated demand analysis is beginning to receive increased importance in food policies for developing countries. Using household data from the 1977 Mexican Income and Expenditure Household Survey, the authors estimate the income and demographic effects on expenditures for 9 aggregate food categories. In addition, they use a probit model to explore the effect of these variables on the purchase decision for 5 high protein supplying goods. The results indicate that demographic variables, as well as income, have important effects in determining food expenditures. The authors analyze these effects and indicate the role they might play in food policy programs such as PRONAL, the National Food Programme. (author's modified)
In: Economics of changing age distributions in developed countries, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur and Gerry Rodgers. Oxford, England, Clarendon Press, 1988. 139-50. (International Studies in Demography)This chapter examines the consequences of grafting an economic theory of fertility on to a simple model of economic growth. Our 1st discovery was that the existence of a sustainable equilibrium with growing per capita income imposes certain local restrictions on the form of the utility function. By exploiting those restrictions, the author was able to derive conclusions about the effects of government intervention on the long-term behavior of the model economy. The most striking of those conclusions was that a policy of taxing income and redistributing the proceeds to families in proportion to the number of children would increase income, consumption, and the number of children per adult, but would permanently reduce the amount spent on each child. By contrast, income taxation would have no macroeconomic effects, no matter how the proceeds were spent, if population were exogenous. Strong results obtained with a highly stylized model must be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt, particularly so when they concern complex phenomena like fertility. But the approach followed in this discussion, namely inferring the properties of the utility function from the conditions for a sustainable equilibrium and then seeing how these properties affect the comparative statics and dynamics of the system, appears to be promising. It might even be that some of the steady-state results would carry over to models with a variable saving rate and a more detailed age structure.
PAKISTAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1988 Autumn; 27(3):229-76.A subjective equilibrium model was constructed, integrating economic and demographic behavior of agricultural households, using data from a special Philippine survey. The data were collected in 1978-1979 from 590 households in Misamis Oriental, northern Mindanao Island, sponsored by FAO/UNFPA. Households were categorized into large and small farms, and owner and tenant-operated farms. The utility maximization hypothesis was tested and could not be rejected for any socioeconomic groups. The major difference was the input of child labor. The utility maximization model also revealed demands for leisure and commodities consistent with higher valuation of children in tenant and small households compared to owner and large households. The analysis of household equilibrium with demographic characteristics suggests important policy implications: that improved endowments at the bottom could trickle up to result in higher production and lower population growth.
Chicago, Illinois, Economics Research Center, 1987. 37 p. (Discussion Paper Series No. 87-14.)Valuation formulas for age-specific mortality risks are derived from life-cycle allocation theory under uncertainty and related to empirical estimates of the value of life. A change in an age-specific mortality risk affects all subsequent survivor functions and reallocates consumption and labor supply over the entire life cycle. The value of eliminating a risk to life at a specific age is the expected present value of consumer surplus from that age forward. Approximate numerical extrapolations from cross-section estimates imply that values decrease rapidly in current age and in the distance between current age and age at risk. (author's)
The dynamics of rural labor supply in a developing country: dynamic market labor supply functions for rural South India.
[Unpublished] 1987. 17 p.This paper estimates a life-cycle model of labor market supply using data from rural south India. The estimated model permits determination of household labor supply to parametric and evolutionary wage changes. The framework used assumes 1) perfect foresight by the consumer (so that all future wages are known with complete certainty); 2) a well-functioning credit market in which the consumer can freely borrow or lend resources at a constant real interest rate; and 3) intertemporal additive separability in the utility function, which implies that, if labor supply in any given period is an inferior good, labor supply at different dates are not substitutes. This study uses the Village-Level Studies data collected by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropis. 40 households from each of 3 south Indian villages were surveyed annually from the agricultural year 1975-1976 and 1983-1984. Data were obtained on many variables, including farm management, time allocation, consumption, and characteristics of each resident member within a household. Results show very large and significant market labor supply responses when labor supply decision-making is treated within a life-cycle context. Almost all of this response takes place in the same period in which there is a wage change, with virtually no labor supply response in other periods. While changes in initial permanent income of the household have a statistically significant negative effect on its market labor supply, thereby implying the normality of leisure, such effects are numerically small.
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1986; 12 Suppl:69-76.The economic approach to fertility emphasizes the effects of parents' income and the cost of rearing children. With a few exceptions, this approach has neglected the analytical links between decisions by different generations of the same family. This article develops the implications of altruism toward children, where utility of parents depends on their own consumption, their fertility, and the utility of each of their children. Altruism toward children implies that the welfare of all generations of a family is linked through a dynastic utility function that depends on the consumption, fertility, and number of descendants in all generations. The head of a dynastic family acts as if he maximizes dynastic utility subject to a dynastic budget constraint, which involves the wealth inherited by the head, interest rates, the cost of rearing children in all generations, and the earnings of all descendants. The authors neglect uncertainty, marriage, the spacing of births, and capital-market restraints over life cycles and across generations. Nevertheless, even a highly simplified model of altruism toward children and the behavior of dynastic families appears to us to capture important important aspects of the dynamic behavior of fertility and consumption. If so, a new approach would be warranted to the analysis of trends and long-term fluctuations in fertility, population growth, and consumption.
Bulletin of Economic Research. 1984 Nov; 36(2):97-108.This paper investigates the theoretical implications of the hypothesis that technical progress is affected by population size or growth. It extends the model of Arrow, in which technical progress is viewed as the result of learning-by-doing, in 3 ways: 1) a smooth substitutability between labor, capital, and natural resources is permitted; 2) the concept of learning-by-doing is broadened to allow for the fact that any act of production may involve some degree of learning; and 3) it addresses the stability question, left unanswered by Arrow. Models both without natural resources and with exhaustible natural resources were considered. In both versions of the model, the steady-state characteristics of the economy are independent of the initial population size. This suggests that the population-size or population-density effect advocated by Simon cannot be justified by a learning-by-doing mechanism and the initial advantage of large population size becomes insignificant over time. However, a positive population growth effect on the level or the growth rate of real per capita income is possible. In cases where natural resources are less important than man-made capital, a rise in the population growth rate would increase the growth rate of per capita income but decrease its level, whereas the opposite situation applies in cases where natural resources are more important than capital.
Journal of Regional Science. 1984 Nov; 24(4):509-17.A two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model is developed "to investigate the direction of migration in response to differing demographic and consumption demand behavior, as well as variations in production conditions." The model, which involves a rural sector and an urban sector, incorporates "returns to scale and the natural rate of sectoral population growth as important determinants of the direction of migration, in addition to price and income elasticities, and the sectoral technical change rate with which...previous studies dealt." (EXCERPT)
In: Economic consequences of population change in industrialized countries: proceedings of the Conference on Population Economics held at the University of Paderborn, West Germany, June 1-June 3, 1983, edited by Gunter Steinmann. New York, N.Y./Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of, Springer-Verlag, 1984. 2-28. (Studies in Contemporary Economics Vol. 8)The author attempts to construct a model that would justify a positive relationship between the level or growth rate of population on the one hand and the levels or growth rates of real per capita income and consumption on the other. The implications of a positive feedback from per capita income to population growth are examined using a neoclassical growth model with substitutable factors of production. The analysis is then extended by introducing endogenous population change. The geographic focus is on developed countries. (ANNOTATION)
American Economist. 1983 Fall; 27(2):50-7.The author attempts to estimate the effects of the social security program on fertility in the United States from 1933 to 1974. A fertility model based on the choice theoretic calculus is presented, "with the distinguishing feature that the childbearing cohort's utility depends on own consumption as well as consumption of their retired parents. In this framework, changes in social security affect household income, and thus fertility, directly, as well as indirectly due to substitution of social security for private intergenerational transfers." (EXCERPT)