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  1. 1

    Network models of the diffusion of innovations.

    Valente TW

    Cresskill, New Jersey, Hampton Press, 1995. xv, 171 p. (Quantitative Methods in Communication)

    Innovations, such as ideas, products, or opinions, spread or diffuse through society at a rate and specificity which can be understood by analyzing the pattern of communication (the social network) which exists between individuals in a social system. Analysis of such network models of diffusion reveals tipping points in the process that are studied through threshold models, which focus on individuals, and critical mass models, which describe social systems. Together, these models provide a comprehensive picture of how social systems determine social change. This book opens with an introduction which reviews the theory of diffusion of innovations, network analysis, and the three diffusion datasets used as examples. The concept of "contagion," or the specific process of innovation diffusion (also known as the "diffusion effect"), is defined. Chapter 2 provides a framework for understanding threshold and critical mass models by describing prior research on their effects. Chapter 3 describes relational diffusion network models, which maintain that individuals adopt innovations based on their direct relations with others in their social system. Structural diffusion network models, presented in chapter 4, hold that individuals adopt innovations based on their position in their social system, regardless of their direct ties to others. Chapter 5 covers threshold models of diffusion and introduces the notion that individuals may be innovative with respect to their personal network as well as to the social system. Chapter 6 deals with critical mass models of diffusion and points out that competing definitions of critical mass and a lack of clarity in critical mass research has hindered the theoretical development of these models. This chapter tests alternative models and shows how centralness and radiality of personal networks contribute to the critical mass. Chapter 7 develops a network threshold model which can be conceptualized in both relational and structural terms and which allows individual innovativeness to be measured relative to an individual's personal network or relative to a whole social system. This model can be used to predict diffusion, identify opinion leaders, understand the two-step flow model of opinion formulation, and determine the critical mass. Chapter 8 discusses other possible methods which are useful for understanding network models. The final chapter discusses applications, contrasts network thresholds with the classic diffusion model, and concludes that network characteristics are associated with adoption behavior at both the individual and the system level of analysis. The shortcomings of the modeling systems presented in this book and the limitations of the research are discussed, and indications for future research are given.
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  2. 2

    Guyana: better-fed children.

    Van der Vynckt S

    UNESCO SPECIAL. 1988; (15):1-4.

    In 1987, an UNESCO project, with the financial support of the Norwegian Ministry of Development Co-operation, was launched in Guyana (796,750 inhabitants), to promote the development of the home market for locally produced foods, and alleviate malnutrition through education. This, in a country where, especially in rural areas, 22% of 5 years old children suffer from malnutrition. The results of a 1st set of studies focused on consumer behavior, and demand analysis, were made public in March 1988. The results of a 2nd series of studies aimed at determining how the agro-industrial sector can best meet the demand for local food products, at identifying food processing possibilities, and improving marketing practice, are to be presented in December 1988. Nutrition education has been given to mothers with small children, receiving dietary advice, and basic information on child growth, in the course of their visits to the clinic. In addition, a series of video-cassettes has been shown in the clinic, and a series of radio messages has been aired nationwide. Even more innovative has been the use of the usual techniques of commercial marketing. The use of "social marketing" has yielded good results in developing countries, and it is hoped that the UNESCO project in Guyana will serve as an example to other countries facing similar food supply problems.
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  3. 3

    Marketing health care products: the contact lens market.

    Exter T

    [Unpublished] 1988. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, Louisiana, April 21-23, 1988. 7, [8] p.

    The contact lens market is a good example of a "health care product" market that is strongly affected by demographic trends. In the US, according to a 1986 survey by the Simmons Market Research Bureau, 57% of all persons 18 or over wear eyeglasses and/or contact lenses. The absolute number of contact lens users increased from 12.7 million in 1982 to 22.9 million in 1986. Most contact lens wearers are young -- between 18 and 29. 11% of men and 15% of women are contact lens wearers. Among people under 45 with a college education 21% wear contacts as opposed to 13% of those who never attended college. However, among college-educated persons 45 and over only 11% are more likely to wear contacts than noncollege people. Thus in terms of demographic breakdown by age, sex and education, contact lens wear is highest among young college-educated women. Analysis of current demographic segments in the contact lens market can provide data for estimating future trends, such as, e.g., from which segments of the population the next 1000 customers will come. Assuming constant penetration rates and constant growth rates for the 3 segments, 71% of the new users will be under 45. If the under 45 group grows 3.68%, but the over 45 segment grows 6.75%, only 52% of the new customers will be under 45; 29% will come from the under 45 college-educated segment, 28% from the over 45 noncollege segment, and 23% from the under 45 noncollege segment. Among women, youth is a more important determinant than education or choosing contact lenses. Thus demographic data can be used to understand and segment a market.
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  4. 4

    [Business demographics: a new market for demographers?] Business demographics: een nieuwe markt voor demografen?

    Kuijsten AC

    BEVOLKING EN GEZIN. 1987 Dec; (2):43-67.

    The author discusses the value of business demographics for marketing and management in the private business sector. The demographic factors that are most pertinent to business planning are identified and include changes in age structure, compositions of the labor force and households, and mobility. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (ANNOTATION)
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  5. 5

    [Using demographic statistics in market studies and specifically for the business planning] Utilisation des statistiques demographiques dans les etudes de marche et specifiquement pour les plans des entreprises.

    Dackam Ngatchou R; Lamlenn BS

    In: Utilisation des statistiques demographiques au Cameroun. Actes d'une Seminaire tenu du 16 au 19 Juillet 1984 a Yaounde. Yaounde, Cameroon, Ministere du Plan et de l'Amenagement du Territoire, 1985 Jul. 308-32.

    This article assesses the potential use of demographic statistics in determining the volume and structure of consumption through market studies and the sources of demographic data used in market studies, and presents concrete examples of demographic data use in market studies in Cameroon. The age and sex structure of the population influences the availability of labor and the extent of the market for particular products, while the socioeconomic structure is related to income and purchasing power. Population movements of particular interest to business planning include rural-urban migration, change in the numbers of households or household size, and change in household budgets. Population growth, determined by prevailing patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration, is the most important determinant of total consumption of many products. The 3 major data sources for market studies are population censuses, demographic surveys, and civil registration systems. Censuses furnish exhaustive statistics on individual and collective characteristics for population units of all sizes, serve as bases for sampling studies, and are useful for study of population movement. Budget-consumption studies with demographic content are the usual method of determining effective consumption. The budget-consumption survey underway in Cameroon is expected to yield data on a wide range of household expenditures. A well-functioning civil registration system combined with accurate knowledge of migratory trends would permit calculation of the population growth rate. Concrete examples of market studies undertaken in Cameroon using available demographic data include a footwear manufacturer that used demographic data to help estimate the proportion of shoes to offer for different ages and sizes of feet, a producer of school notebooks who used data on population structure to determine the number of each type of notebook to produce, and a life insurance company which needed to structure rates to fit Cameroon, a country with few actuaries. A cigarette company and a brewery requiring data for planning of distribution and possible expansion are other examples of enterprises requiring demographic data. Limited availability of official statistics and out-of-date data forced each company to some extent to develop supplementary data collection systems.
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  6. 6

    Wheels for the baby boom: Detroit discovers demographics.

    Dunn W

    American Demographics. 1984 May; 6(5):26-29.

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  7. 7

    The baby-boom consumer.

    Jones LY

    American Demographics. 1981 Feb; 3(2):28-35.

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  8. 8

    Counting on Wall Street.

    Nordberg OS

    American Demographics. 1983 Aug; 5(8):22-25.

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