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Lancet. 2012 Jul 14; 380(9837):157-64.Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) have been studied from diff erent perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanization, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO2 emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanization have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO2 several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanization can have important eff ects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits.
Population and Development Review. 2007; 33(2):247-287.The goal of this article is to examine the determinants of the improvements in life expectancy in the developing world during the period after World War II. Recent estimates suggest that longevity has been a quantitatively vital component of the overall gains in welfare during the twentieth century, both within and across countries. From a research perspective, pinning down the factors determining the observed reductions in mortality may shed light on the interactions between health, human capital, and income, and on their relative importance for economic development and social change. From a policy perspective, it may help maximize the impact of future health interventions in countries that still lag behind in health improvements. In particular, this knowledge may be fundamental in designing policies to enable sub-Saharan Africa to recover from its present circumstances. (excerpt)
[Review of methods of dietary assessment during pregnant] Metodos de avaliacao do consumo alimentar de gestantes: uma revisao.
Revista Brasileira de Saude Materno Infantil. 2006 Oct-Dec; 6(4):383-390.Physiological pregnancy changes impact nutritional needs and food intake. The adequate use of tools providing knowledge of food consumption during this life cycle is relevant because it enables the diagnosis for possible nutrition deficits and excesses. The objective of the survey was to perform a bibliographic review on food intake assessment methods during pregnancy. The literature reviewed was selected from an electronic database published between 1994 and September 2004 in Brazil and abroad. This article aims at describing and assessing the different methods and main results of studies determining food intake during pregnancy, among them, the following are highlighted: 24 hour recall, food registration, questionnaire on food intake consumption and food history. The results determine that the 24 hour recall method was the one more frequently used, nevertheless, for many times it was not applied beyond a two day investigation period and it did not take weekends into account. The choice for this method is related to pragmatism and a favorable cost benefit ratio. The conclusion is that to obtain reliable results, the choice of method and study design should always be related to the objectives of the enquiry. (author's)
Food and Nutrition Bulletin. 2001; 22(4):357-360.Vitamin A deficiency is a major public health problem in Africa, especially in the Sahelian countries. It occurs mainly in young children and women of childbearing age. Inadequate intake of vitamin A is the main cause of the deficiency. The main animal sources of vitamin A are liver, eggs, milk, and milk products. They contain 25 to 8,235 retinol equivalents (RE)/100 g of edible portion. Even though these sources are rich in highly bioavailable vitamin A, their consumption among the population is still low. Plant foods rich in provitamin A represent more than 80% of the total food intake of vitamin A because of their low cost, high availability, and diversity. Fruits, roots, tubers, and leafy vegetables are the main providers of provitamin A carotenoids. Because of their availability and affordability, green leafy vegetables are consumed largely by the poor populations, but their provitamin A activity has been proven to be less than previously assumed. Among fruits, mangoes constitute an important seasonal source of vitamin A. Yellow or orange sweet potatoes are rich in provitamin A. Red palm oil has a high concentration of provitamin A carotenoids (500-700 ppm/100 g). Extension of new varieties with a high content of bioavailable provitamin A and locally adapted education and counseling on the handling and storage of provitamin A sources can significantly increase the vitamin A intake of vulnerable people. The Food and Agriculture Organization has implemented projects in several African countries to increase production and promote consumption of locally produced or available vitamin A-rich foods. The focus has been on women as the principal food producers and behavioral change agents. Adoption of food- and agriculture-based strategies as the best, appropriate, efficient, and long-term solution should be the focus of African efforts to improve nutrition. Food sources of vitamin A and provitamin A are plentiful in Africa. Food-consumption practices, food habits, and cultural aspects represent essential factors to be taken into account for successful implementation of these approaches. (author's)
Population Review. 2005; 44(1): p..Empires and civilizations emerge, peak and collapse, over time scales usually measured in centuries. The rise of Western civilization as we know it began with the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century. It is characterized by material prosperity based on the ready availability of cheap energy, mostly in the form of fossil fuels. It may now be peaking, with Westerners consuming lavish amounts of the most convenient fossil fuel, oil. Britons get through 10 barrels of oil per person per year, and North Americans use up more than twice that figure. For most Third Worlders, by contrast, individual consumption is normally a tiny fraction of one barrel. The benefits of Western civilization have spread around the world, allowing the human population to explode. It had risen slowly and painfully to about 0.6 billion in 1750, only to shoot up to 6 billion by 2000. Mechanized agriculture with artificial fertilizers, disease control by modern medicines, and the imposition of peace on warring tribal societies by colonizers, are responsible. There is usually enough food to eat, and life expectancies have risen steadily (until the advent of HIV/Aids in Africa). (excerpt)
[Arlington, Virginia], John Snow [JSI], Family Planning Logistics Management Project, 2001 Apr. 20 p.This document addresses issues related to supplying just one type of reproductive health commodity: contraceptives. It begins with an analysis of current and future global demand for contraceptives and lays out the strategies for meeting this demand in those developing countries that depend on supplies from foreign donors. It provides an overview of current and projected contraceptive use from 87 developing countries, and reviews the factors that contribute to the growing demand for contraceptive supplies.
In: Consumption, population, and sustainability: perspectives from science and religion, edited by Audrey R. Chapman, Rodney L. Petersen, and Barbara Smith-Moran. Washington, D.C., Island Press, 2000. 309-34.The correlation of patterns of consumption, population policy, and levels of acceptable sustainability is complex: consumption is related to freedom, population issues are related to the perception of future, and each of these concepts carries emotional weight as they relate to prevailing democratic philosophies and politics. Over the years, growing awareness of ecological degradation has added an edge to the variable of sustainability in discussions about consumption and population. This concern over issues of ecological degradation has been paralleled by interest in the relationship of religion to issues of consumption and population in the context of a developing environmental ethic. This book chapter discusses efforts to draft a shared vision of ethical values and practical guidelines essential to ecological security and sustainable living. That vision should include world religious bodies and particular denominations and academic departments of religion, intergovernmental agencies and nongovernmental organizations, the scientific and technological community, and the Earth Charter Consultation Process.
Population, consumption, and eco-justice: a moral assessment of the 1994 United Nations International Conference on Population and Development.
In: Consumption, population, and sustainability: perspectives from science and religion, edited by Audrey R. Chapman, Rodney L. Petersen, and Barbara Smith-Moran. Washington, D.C., Island Press, 2000. 219-44.This article employs the concept of eco-justice to provide a moral assessment of the approach to population and consumption issues reflected in the 1994 Programme of Action of UN International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, Egypt. This approach represents a shift away from a focus on numbers of people, demographic goals, and rates of contraceptive use toward an emphasis on the empowerment of women, reproductive rights, and improvement in the lives of all people. However, despite the important improvements that the Cairo consensus represents, it is noted that that there are some significant ways in which the document has failed. This article evaluates these weaknesses along with the strengths of the existing approach to population and consumption issues that were agreed upon in Cairo. It also examines the unique features and key objectives of the Programme of Action, and provides a brief historical summary of international reflection on the relationship of population and development. Finally, it identifies the key objectives of the program in relationship to the plan's relevant chapters.
In: Consumption, population, and sustainability: perspectives from science and religion, edited by Audrey R. Chapman, Rodney L. Petersen, and Barbara Smith-Moran. Washington, D.C., Island Press, 2000. 111-9.This article discusses the potential contributions of the religious community on environmental protection by considering the perspective of the Christian, Jewish and Muslim traditions. It also presents the text of a statement of an international and interfaith consultation and a topical treatment of the religious ethic of frugality. Noting that faith communions have only begun to deal with threats to the environment from overpopulation and overconsumption, they have also begun to examine what their traditions have to say about these issues. Ecological awareness, population and consumption have posed a challenge to the religious community in their commitment to promote a more sustainable future. One of the formative challenges for the religious community is to develop effective instruments of religious education to instruct, inspire, and transform the moral life of members to live in accordance with a sustainable ethic. As such, the concept of frugality provides a norm of economic activity for both individuals and societies that leads to ethically disciplined production and consumption for the sake of some higher ends.
CMAJ: Canadian Medical Association Journal. 2000 Sep 5; 163(5):551-6.This paper focuses on the impact of population growth on human health, socioeconomic development, and the environment. The impact of humans on their environment is related to population size, per capita consumption and the environmental damage caused by the technology used to produce what is consumed. Human activity has already transformed an estimated 10% of Earth's surface from forest or range land into desert. Unproductive land and food scarcity contribute to malnutrition among 1 billion people, with infants and children suffering the most serious health consequences. Water scarcity also impairs health as fresh water supplies for human use become polluted. These are considered to be among the many important interactions between population growth, consumption, environmental degradation and health. Meeting the family planning needs of the 100-120 million women in developing countries would lower the total fertility rate (TFR) from 3.2 to 2.1, the TFR needed for population stabilization. With the political will to make available good reproductive health care, population growth is likely to decline to manageable levels.
Washington, D.C., World Resources Institute [WRI], 1999. 71 p.This report examines consumption trends, and the associated impacts on natural ecosystems, for three key resources--food (cereals and meat), wood fiber, and fish. In the last 30 years, world cereal consumption has more than doubled, while meat consumption has tripled since 1961, and is increasing at a linear rate. Most agricultural experts believe that increasing global demand for cereals and meat can be met, and forecast that grain production will rise by about 15% by 2010, and by 25 to 40% by 2020. Global wood consumption has risen by 64% since 1961. Demand for fuelwood and charcoal rose by nearly 80% and more than half the world's wood fiber supply is now burned as fuel. For industrial wood fiber, the demand is projected to rise by between 20% and 40% by 2010. Consumption of fish and fishery products has risen 240% since 1960 and more than five-fold since 1950. These three examples from the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors demonstrate how existing practices are undermining the biological systems that support key renewable resources, exploiting them in such a way that potentially everlasting supplies are being depleted. Policy interventions can be made at the point of resource production, or at any point in the processing and distribution chain, or they can target end-use behavior by the consumer.
NATION. 1999 Jun 6; 2.This article presents several significant environmental issues that correlate population growth and resource consumption on a global or regional scale. These issues include: global warming, pollution, loss of biodiversity, tropical forests, oceans and fisheries, land use, freshwater resources, and carrying capacity. Population size, growth, and patterns of resource usage impacts on the types of pollution including air, water, and solid pollution. As the world's population and per capita consumption grow, the human race uses resources and generates waste faster. In the same way, as the human population expands, it reduces biological diversity through the destruction of ecosystems such as tropical and temperate forests, tundra, wetlands, coral reefs, and marine environments. This decline in biodiversity caused by humans represents a serious threat to our development. Furthermore, population growth also affects land and water productivity, making it difficult to meet the demand for food. Although, freshwater resources is renewable, but its rate of renewal depends on the global cycle, which often cannot keep pace with human demands. In addition, human settlements, industry, and agriculture can all affect the carrying capacity of the earth. In the case of Pakistan, wherein its population growth greatly affects the socioeconomic conditions of a common and the natural resources, as a whole: it has rapidly started to affect the environment as well. Therefore, special attention should be given to population growth trends, current human activities, per capital resource use, and the level of production of the resources.
DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE. 1999 Apr; 30(2):217-35.This article argues that the elderly in developing countries are entitled to a national pension scheme as their entitlement to a reasonable standard of living and as compensation for inequities during their working years. Productivity of the elderly should include accumulated assets and savings as workers. Dependency burdens include the elderly, the unemployed, and underemployed. The productive ability of the elderly is a function of actual age and disabilities. Retirement age is an institutional measure. Economists argue that economic growth is reduced by a large proportion of elderly, who adversely impact aggregate demand and investment, or that the elderly consume more than they produce. The author argues that the consumption needs of the elderly should be framed within a context that assures entitlement to a "reasonable" standard of living. Price stability can assure the purchasing power of the aged. Maintaining the productive ability of the elderly means that land assets can guarantee access to food. Women's entitlement to goods and services is related to their work history, pension, property, and inheritance rights. Poverty is a threat to older women. The performance of the economy over time affects present and future generations. Intergenerational cooperation is necessary. When the proportion of elderly increases, working age and other populations must increase productivity to meet the needs of the aged.
JOURNAL OF THE AUSTRALIAN POPULATION ASSOCIATION. 1996 Nov; 13(2):195-229.This article reviews the post-Second World War literature on explanations for Australia's immigration program. It discovers three main schools of thought based on net pull factors: the official explanation and two unofficial explanations which focus on migrants as workers and on migrants as consumers. However the growing importance of net push factors after 1974 means that some of this work is less relevant today. Explanations focusing on net push factors have yet to cohere into a distinct perspective (or perspectives) but some research has been done on chain migration and family-based migration strategies, asylum seekers, temporary movement, and migration and the law. (EXCERPT)
NATURAL RESOURCES FORUM. 1997; 21(3):161-7.This article offers a framework for developing viable drinking water services and institutional development in developing countries. The framework evolved from the authors' research and field experience in transition and developing economies. Viability is related to operative technology, appropriate organizations, and adequate cost recovery within the context of water resources, human and economic resources, sociocultural conditions, and other constraints. The ability of institutions to solve the problems of coordination and production depends upon player motivation, the complexity of the environment, and the ability of the players to control the environment. Third party enforcement of agreements are essential to reduce gains from opportunism, cheating, and shirking. Empirical research finds that per capita water production costs are 4 times higher in centralized systems and lowest in decentralized systems with coordination from a central party. Three-tiered systems of governments, regulators, and service providers are recommended. Management options must be consumer driven. The worst case scenario is consumer's reliance on vending and reselling with no alternative source of supply. Policies should have a strong focus on institutional reforms in the water sector, the development of a consumer driven water sector, facilitation of appropriate private-public partnerships, sound management of existing capital assets, a system for building viability into national strategies for the water sector, and financially self-sufficient and consumer responsible water supply organizations.
[Unpublished] 1997. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, D.C., March 27-29, 1997. 18,  p.Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) collect indicators of housing quality, access to water and electricity, and ownership of selected consumer durables. To gauge the performance of those indicators, data sets are needed which include the indicators themselves and the measures they are meant to represent, household consumption or income levels. The authors review the statistical properties of models which rely upon proxy variables. No new theoretical results are presented. The performance of DHS-like indices as proxies for per adult household consumption is then assessed, followed by the presentation of models of fertility and child mortality incorporating consumption. The resulting estimates are then compared to those derived from indices. DHS-style indices were found to be very weak proxies for consumption per adult.
In: Population and environment: rethinking the debate, edited by Lourdes Arizpe, M. Priscilla Stone, and David C. Major. Boulder, Colorado, Westview Press, 1994. 277-301.Extractive natural resource processes are mediated in complex ways by material processes, technological choices, corporate strategies, and national and international relations. The population-environment debate capsuled in the doomsayer or cornucopian theories reveals very little about the environmental and social consequences of extracting different raw materials in different locations. Material resources are finite and may be substituted to some extent. Industrial capitalism requires secure access to an expanding supply of raw materials for economic growth and stability. Informed importing firms and states have the advantage over isolated exporting nations competing against each other for contracts. The form of international trade, commodity use patterns, the absolute physical scarcity of a material, and the location of materials all affect access strategies and the impact on resource exporting nations. The extractive economy is also affected by the chemical and physical characteristics of materials. Technology has offset the higher costs of scarcity and distances. Raw materials scarcity impact on developed nations is temporary. For the extraction country, the crisis is economic and ecological and varies among nations. Depletion or substitution of a resource affects to a lesser degree those nations that rely on other industries. The increase in scale of extraction has increased the environmental impact. Types of extractive materials affect the types of infrastructure instrumental for transport or extraction. Local inhabitants of the mining area, inhabitants along the route to the port, and inhabitants in the port area, plus the labor population working in the mines or building infrastructure are all affected by large extractive projects. Inhabitants in remote areas of extraction have the least land rights and may not form cooperative relationships with former migrant construction workers. There are no simple generalizations possible about the impact of extractive economies on the environment and population.
In: Population and environment: rethinking the debate, edited by Lourdes Arizpe, M. Priscilla Stone, and David C. Major. Boulder, Colorado, Westview Press, 1994. 15-40.The chapter aim was to present new directions for constructing comprehensive social, political, and economic models of the environment and population links. Variables should include not just population size, but density, rate of increase, age distribution, sex ratios, access to resources, livelihoods, social dimensions of gender, and power structures. Sustainability must account for sustainable livelihoods. Today's challenges are on much larger scale without precedence. Out-migration is not now possible due to ecological mismanagement. The natural inequalities in geographic resource distribution are exacerbated by the economic power of capital in industrialized nations and elite groups in less developed countries. Solutions are not possible when the debate is deadlocked. Population growth is an "accelerating force" and interrelated with socioeconomic transitions. Consumption of natural and human made resources must be tied to population growth. Sustainable development must occur nationally, regionally, and globally. Demographic transition today has been occurring in ways different from the developed country models of socioeconomic change. The momentum of population growth, the age structure, and the consumption and impact of new persons on social and ecological systems must be accounted for. Carrying capacity concepts are difficult to estimate, in part because needs are determined by culture. Population growth has been used to obscure existing disparities and inequalities. Various theoretical postures have emerged: population growth as a cause of environmental depletion, technology as a solution spurred on population growth, consumption disparities as a cause, income inequality as a cause, and measurement deficits in determining the differential effects of population growth. Environmental change has always occurred in tandem with population change. Examples from the Lacandon rainforest illustrated the complexity of interactions.
[Socioenvironmental dilemmas of sustainable development] Dilemas socioambientais do desenvolvimento sustentavel.
Revista Brasileira de Estudos de Populacao. 1992 Jan-Jul; 9(1):90-4.The literature on sustainable development published in advance of the 1992 United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development, in Rio de Janeiro, focuses on the social politics of the environment and the problems of the correlation of population and the environment. There is an intense preoccupation with the Brazilian environmental agenda and excessive treatment of topics related to the natural environment and the tropical forest of the Amazon. The fact that 75% of the Brazilian population lives in urban areas is ignored. Some works maintain that there is profound division between the conservators of the contemporary predatory and wasteful civilization and those progressive forces that point to the direction of a socially just and ecologically sustainable civilization. Issues that cannot be reduced to environmental questions have come into the forefront in recent years: race, gender, human rights, and pacifism. The question of population growth and pressure on the finite resources have also forcefully featured in debates. The sociology of environment submits that the contemporary civilization cannot be sustained in the medium or long term because of exponential population growth, spatial concentration of the population, depletion of natural resources, systems of production that utilized polluting technologies and low energy efficiency, and values that encourage unlimited material consumption.
In: Demography of aging, edited by Linda G. Martin and Samuel H. Preston. Washington, D.C., National Academy Press, 1994. 102-45.Panel data from the HRS survey of health and retirement and the AHEAD survey on health and assets were expected to fill in the gaps in knowledge about the welfare of the aged. A remaining unfulfilled data need was identified as consumption data. The past research emphasis has been on income changes rather than on wealth changes in savings and dissavings. Needs assessment has been lacking. Little research was available on the economic needs of the aged and their effect on household budgets, consumption needs, and wealth decumulation. Wealth transfers also have not been well researched. There was little to research about how expectations of wealth transfers affected the decisions of the young and human capital accumulation. Comparable international data would facilitate examination of the interaction between public and private transfers. This article reviewed the relevant literature on the following issues: diversity in the economic status of the elderly, economic trends and future sustainability, the role of intergenerational transfers, and data needs, particularly of forecasting the economic status of the aged. The summary review of the income of the aged found that incomes were similar to the non-aged but showed a wider range. Poverty among the aged was lower than in the general population but higher compared to other industrialized countries. The American population aged 65 years and older had the highest income in the world, but age 75 years revealed the highest proportion of low-income women living alone. The literature on wealth was sparse compared to the literature on income. Little was known about the links between asset holdings and health status and health care expenses or between housing wealth and health status. What data were available covered a period of economic boom between 1983 and 1989.
Population and consumption issues for environmentalists. A literature search and bibliography prepared by the Population Reference Bureau for the Pew Charitable Trusts' Global Stewardship Initiative.
[Unpublished] 1993 Oct. 25,  p.Generalizations about the link between population and the environment are difficult because of the number of disciplines involved, the demographic diversity, the variety of interrelationships, the politically and emotionally charged nature of the links, and ideological conflicts. Environmentalists no longer attribute population growth as the primary cause of environmental degradation, and many recognize the role of industrialized nations' consumption patterns. Environmentalists are still concerned about balancing supply and demand and promoting population stability. Scientists accept the notion of a long-term rise in temperatures; what is unclear is the scope and impact of global warming. Consumption patterns and technology have affected ozone depletion. The causes in the Northern Hemisphere and the contribution of ozone depletion to increased ultraviolet radiation require further research. Loss of biodiversity has been attributed to habitat changes, overharvesting, chemical pollution, climatic change, introduced species, and population increases. Human institutions may be more important in determining environmental degradation than human numbers. 64 countries with total population of over 1 billion have been identified as having a potential population exceeding carrying capacity. Environmental impacts are best understood on a country-specific basis, according to Bilsborrow and Geores. Rising standards of living have increased production of consumer durables and contribute to pollution from the production process, energy consumption, and solid waste. A tripling of production without serious environmental pollution will depend on technology, efficiency of energy use, extent of recycling, and other protective measures. Energy consumption has increased the most in developing countries. The next major source of international conflict may be water scarcity. There is potential for environmental collapse, and some policy makers dismiss warnings.
[Estimating the changing cost of children? A change in society, and a citicism of some concepts] Chiffrer une evolution du cout de l'enfant? Changement de societe, mise en cause des concepts.
POPULATION. 1994 Nov-Dec; 49(6):1,389-418.This is a review of the literature on the costs of having and raising children. The author notes that "initially, when the aim was to fight against poverty and maintain family living standards, research was directed to setting nutritional and budget standards. Subsequent research methods were based on household behaviour which was decreasingly focused on satisfying their basic needs. From 1964, economic models were based on the welfare of parents who make both economic and fertility decisions. The latest research tests the compatibility of the models with observed consumer behaviour. It shows that household consumption does not give any information on welfare in different types of households at a point of time, but gives a full comparison of trends in these welfare levels after setting their value at a point by convention." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
WORLD BANK RESEARCH OBSERVER. 1992 Jul; 7(2):145-69.Economic development in developing countries must be accomplished in a manner that does not harm the environment with pollution. Pollution harms human health and productivity. Thus appropriate strategies must be developed that promote growth, reduce poverty, and protect the environment. A review of the current literature is performed with attention paid to cost-effective interventions i.e., comparisons of regulatory and fiscal instruments that can reduce pollution. Both direct instruments (like effluent charges, tradable permits, deposit refund systems, emission regulations and regulatory agency funding for purification, cleanup, waste disposal, and enforcement) and indirect instruments (like input/output taxes and subsidies, substitution subsidies, abatement inputs, regulation of equipment and processes, and development of clean technologies) are examined. Examples are used to show how indirect instruments can be successful when monitoring and enforcement is too costly. A careful examination of distributive concerns illustrate how the effect on the poor may need particular consideration and how groups with vested interests can help evaluate the probable success of such interventions.
WORLD HEALTH STATISTICS QUARTERLY. RAPPORT TRIMESTRIEL DE STATISTIQUES SANITAIRES MONDIALES. 1991; 44(4):198-203.Urban health hazards in the rapidly urbanizing areas of developing countries are described, and ways to mitigate them by sustainable development are discussed. Urban health problems are serious in developing countries because population growth is so rapid, diseases of underdevelopment and poverty and of modernization are combined, and resources are so limited. The urban populations in developing countries suffer lack of safe water (25%), sewage disposal (50%), solid waste collection (30-50%), crowded living conditions, inadequate housing, indoor and outdoor air pollution, traffic, noise, and effluents from industry. These conditions result in high prevalence of asthma, bronchitis, diarrhea, respiratory infections, tuberculosis, meningitis, as well as stress, mental illness, accidents, violence, antisocial behavior, drug and alcohol abuse. Sustainable development for cities implies that meeting the needs of today's people will not compromise the life of future generations. This is difficult in cities because sustainable urban development must be linked to rural development. The more populous and spread-out the city and the richer its inhabitants, the larger is its demand on resources and the larger is the area from which it draws. Thus deforestation and soil erosion in rural areas result from city demands, but impoverish rural people, causing them to migrate to the city. Many rapidly growing South And Central American cities are sited in fragile ecozones where sustainable use of natural resources is problematic, and land is controlled by a small elite. The poorer cities in developing areas have the advantage of using resources far less wastefully than do First World city dwellers. As they develop and continue to grown, however, even they will demand substantial increases in nonrenewable resource use.
WORLD HEALTH STATISTICS QUARTERLY. RAPPORT TRIMESTRIEL DE STATISTIQUES SANITAIRES MONDIALES. 1991; 44(4):189-97.The world's urban population, at 2048 million in 1985 is projected to increase by 56% to 3197 million by 2000, and another 72% to 5.493 million by 2025. This urbanization will grow by natural increase, rural-urban migration, and declining mortality. 28 mega-cities of >8 million are expected by 2000. In many Latin American countries cities will account for most of the population increase; in parts of Africa, Asia and China, spectacular increases in urban population is expected. In many of these areas the phenomenon called the "demographic trap" rather than a proper demographic transition seems to be occurring, that is stagnation in the phase of high fertility despite a decline in death rates. The patterns of urbanization peculiar to regions and continents are described, such as the "core regions" around Buenos Aires and Mexico City. Unlike the historical urbanization that accompanied the Western industrial revolution, current urbanization is not driven by economic opportunity but by rural poverty and ecological collapse, and aggravated by recession, external debt, natural disasters and welfare, among other factors. It is estimated that 50% of urban dwellers will subsist in extreme poverty, and they will account for 25% of the world's population by 2000. 30% of these households are headed by women, >50% in Latin America. Policies that governments have applied unsuccessfully to reverse urbanization include disincentives for rural urban migration, land reform, rural minimum wage, tax reform, agricultural subsidies, an urban decentralization settlement. More effective policies are integrated rural and urban development, coercive measures to prevent migration accompanied by economic incentives for rural areas, and resettlement schemes. Some positive cultural developments in urban slums are cited as stemming from the resourcefulness of the squatters, such as growing food.