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Washington, D.C., Worldwatch Institute, 1998 Sep. 89 p. (Worldwatch Paper No. 143)This study looks at 16 dimensions or effects of population growth in order to gain a better perspective on how future population trends are likely to affect the human prospect. The evidence gathered here indicates that the rapid population growth prevailing in a majority of the world's countries is not going to continue much longer. Either countries will get their act together, shifting quickly to smaller families, or death rates will rise from one or more [stresses such as AIDS, ethnic conflicts, or water shortages]. The sixteen topics are grain production, fresh water, biodiversity, climate change, oceanic fish catch, jobs, cropland, forests, housing, energy, urbanization, natural recreation areas, education, waste, meat production, and income. (EXCERPT)
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS. 1994 May; 76(2):255-66.This proposed theoretical model is based on new models of Barro and Becker and Becker, Murphy, and Tamura and explains the interaction of family decisions about fertility and the macroeconomy in a growth situation. The proposed model captures a dynamic interaction between labor/leisure and fertility choice and a structural fertility preference shock. Endogenous factor are consumption, labor/leisure, and fertility, while exogenous factors are production and utility parameters. The aim was to develop a general equilibrium model which expresses short- and long-term dynamics, to test the impact of economic disturbances on fertility, and to explain the US baby boom and subsequent fertility patterns. Savings in capital accumulation and in labor supply were expected to have ambiguous effects, while improved productivity was expected to increase steady state consumption. The methodology, a structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model, was developed by Blanchard and Quah and Ihmed, Ickes, Wang, and Yoo. Structural impacts include disturbances in employment, fertility (theoretical preference shift), and output. Long-term restrictions are based on theory, rather than on ad hoc causal orderings (Sims method) or current responses (Bernanke method). The structural VAR model is estimated using the logged differences of labor, fertility rate, and output. The empirical results are based on analysis of US data (1949-88) on fertility, weekly hours worked, and real gross national product. The model revealed that fertility choice should not be considered exogenous to the labor market or to economic growth. Variance of the forecast error for the fertility rate was significantly explained by employment shocks; the effect was reduced fertility and increased labor force effort. Output responses to fertility and technology shocks were similar to those reported by Shapiro and Watson. In the variance decomposition analysis, output shocks explained about 33% of output variance. Fertility shocks explained about 33% of labor growth and 25% of output growth after the first year. With a lag of one year, about 37% of fertility variance was explained by employment shocks. Concluding remarks underscore the importance of knowing which shock initiated the motion and causal ordering.
Interactions between mortality levels and the allocation of time for leisure, training, consumption and saving over the life cycle
In: Consequences of mortality trends and differentials. New York, New York, U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, 1986. 126-31. (Population Studies no. 95, ST/ESA/SER.A/95)The author seeks to develop a framework depicting the interaction of mortality levels and the allocation of time for leisure, training, consumption, and saving over the life cycle in the context of a household's decision-making process. "The discussion suggests that longevity is conducive to saving, schooling and training, and technological change. Rising survivorship is postulated to be a major force behind rising productivity because rising levels of productivity are almost the only means to spread consumption of goods and leisure over an increasing life span." (EXCERPT)
American Demographics. 1981 Feb; 3(2):28-35.Add to my documents.
The impact of family size and composition on household demand for consumption goods, saving, and leisure: a study of farm households in India.
[Unpublished] 1981. Paper presented at the Population Association of America Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., Mar. 26-28, 1981. 27 p.Add to my documents.
In: Women and the world of work. Edited by Anne Hoiberg. New York, N.Y., Plenum Press, 1982. 203-221.Add to my documents.
In: Women: a developmental perspective. Edited by Phyllis W. Berman and Estelle R. Ramey. Washington, D.C., U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services, 1982. 207-219.Add to my documents.
[Unpublished] 1982. Paper presented at the Population Association of America Annual Meeting, San Diego, Calif., Apr. 29-May 1, 1982. 31 p.Add to my documents.